Personal Charisma or the Economy? Macroeconomic Indicators of Presidential Approval Ratings in Brazil
AbstractWe test the degree to which presidential approval ratings are related to a series of eco- nomic indicators, controlling for the political scenario in Brazil. Results, from 1999M9 until 2009M2, show that unemployment is the main variable that a®ects the ratings. There is also evidence that President Luis In¶acio Lula da Silva has a higher approval rate (approximately 7%) than President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, keeping constant a reasonable number of important domestic and foreign indicators. Our results support the conclusion that the good state of the economy (given no political turmoil) is the main factor that explains and predicts Lula's high popularity.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto in its series Working Papers with number 09_09.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
approval rating; president; economy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
- H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
- H83 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Public Administration
- E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
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