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Consumer Confidence and Elections

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  • Gikas Hardouvelis
  • Dimitrios Thomakos

Abstract

We investigate the behavior of consumer confidence around national elections in the EU-15 coun- tries during 1985:1-2007:3. Consumer con¯dence increases before the date of elections and falls subsequently by almost the same amount. It is able to predict the strength of the performance of the incumbent party and its probability of re-election both alone and in the presence of macro- economic and political variables. The post-election drop is negatively related to the previous run up and is a function of the political - but not the economic - environment. A similar rise and fall characterizes consumer confidence in the United States.

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File URL: http://econ.uop.gr/~econ/RePEc/pdf/hardouvelis_thomakos.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0003.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uop:wpaper:0003

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Keywords: consumer confidence; national elections; incumbent party; macro-economy; fiscal conditions; political business cycle; EU-15; USA.;

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Cited by:
  1. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2011. "Consumer Confidence and Aggregate Consumption Expenditures in the United States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-18, February.
  2. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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