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Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?

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  • Andrew Leigh

Abstract

Do voters reward national leaders who are more competent economic managers, or merely those who happen to be in power when the world economy booms? Using data from 268 democratic elections held between 1978 and 1999, I compare the effect of world growth (luck) and national growth relative to world growth (competence). Both matter, but the effect of luck is larger than the effect of competence. Voters are more likely to reward competence in countries that are richer and better educated; and there is some suggestive evidence that media penetration rates affect the returns to luck and competence. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2009.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 71 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 163-181

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:71:y:2009:i:2:p:163-181

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  1. Andrew Leigh & Mark Mcleish, 2009. "Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 210-222, 06.
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  5. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson & Guillermo Moloche & Stephen Weinberg, 2006. "Costly Information Acquisition: Experimental Analysis of a Boundedly Rational Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1043-1068, September.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Why We Choose Presidents Based on the Wrong Issues
    by Ilya Somin in The Volokh Conspiracy on 2012-10-02 01:38:43
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. Paul J Burke, 2011. "Economic Growth and Political Survival," Departmental Working Papers, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics 2011-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  2. Gikas Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Papers, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics 0003, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
  3. Ivo Bischoff & Lars-H. Siemers, 2013. "Biased beliefs and retrospective voting: why democracies choose mediocre policies," Public Choice, Springer, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 163-180, July.
  4. Simonovits, Gábor, 2010. "A gazdasági integráció hatása a kormányzati elszámoltathatóságra
    [The effect of economic integration on government accountability]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 980-993.
  5. Prato, Carlo & Wolton, Stephane, 2014. "The Voters' Curses: The Upsides and Downsides of Political Engagement," MPRA Paper 53482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010. "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 124-57, October.
  7. Cole, Shawn & Healy, Andrew & Werker, Eric, 2012. "Do voters demand responsive governments? Evidence from Indian disaster relief," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 167-181.
  8. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2009. "Democracy's Achilles Heel or, How to Win an Election without Really Trying," Economics Series Working Papers CSAE WPS/2009-08, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2010. "Do Elections Matter for Economic Performance," Economics Series Working Papers CSAE WPS/2010-35, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2013. "Forecasting leadership transitions around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 575-591.
  11. John Maloney & Andrew Pickering, . "Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle," Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, University of York 11/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
  12. Carlos Seixas & António Brandão & Manuel Luís Costa, 2013. "Policy Choices by an Incumbent - A Case with Down-Up Problem, Bias Beliefs and Retrospective Voting," FEP Working Papers 485, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  13. Harry Garretsen & Janka I. Stoker & Rob Alessie & Joris Lammers, 2014. "Simply a Matter of Luck & Looks? Predicting Elections when Both the World Economy and the Psychology of Faces Count," CESifo Working Paper Series 4857, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. John Maloney & Andrew Pickering, 2008. "Ideology, Competence and Luck: What determines general election results?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 08/607, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.

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