Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?

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Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?

Author Info

Andrew Leigh

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Andrew Keith Leigh

Abstract

Do voters reward national leaders who are more competent economic managers, or merely those who happen to be in power when the world economy booms? Using data from 268 democratic elections held between 1978 and 1999, I compare the effect of world growth (luck) and national growth relative to world growth (competence). Both matter, but the effect of luck is larger than the effect of competence. Voters are more likely to reward competence in countries that are richer and better educated; and there is some suggestive evidence that media penetration rates affect the returns to luck and competence. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2009.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 71 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 163-181
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:71:y:2009:i:2:p:163-181

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Paper
- Andrew Leigh, 2004. "Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?," CEPR Discussion Papers 485, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Gikas Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Papers 0003, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Paper Series 42-07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007. [Downloadable!]
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Thomakos, Dimitrios D, 2008. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 6701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
John Maloney & Andrew Pickering, 2008. "Ideology, Competence and Luck: What determines general election results?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 08/607, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]

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