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Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets

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  • ANDREW LEIGH
  • JUSTIN WOLFERS

Abstract

We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This election is particularly interesting both because of innovations in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly important role for these models. The performance of polls was quite uneven, and predictions both across pollsters, and through time, vary too much to be particularly useful. Betting markets provide an interesting contrast, and a slew of data from various betting agencies suggest a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout the election cycle and across individual electorates. Copyright © 2006 The Economic Society of Australia.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 82 (2006)
Issue (Month): 258 (09)
Pages: 325-340

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:82:y:2006:i:258:p:325-340

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  1. Cameron, Lisa & Crosby, Mark, 2000. "It's the Economy Stupid: Macroeconomics and Federal Elections in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 354-64, December.
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  1. Justin Wolfers profile in The American
    by Don Arthur in Club Troppo on 2007-05-27 08:42:10
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Cited by:
  1. Sjöberg, Lennart, 2006. "Are all crowds equally wise? A comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public," Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2006:9, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 04 Oct 2006.
  2. Gikas Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Papers 0003, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
  3. Andrew Leigh, 2008. "Bringing home the bacon: an empirical analysis of the extent and effects of pork-barreling in Australian politics," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 279-299, October.
  4. Alex Ferreira & Sérgio Naruhiko Sakurai, 2009. "Personal Charisma or the Economy? Macroeconomic Indicators of Presidential Approval Ratings in Brazil," Working Papers 09_09, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
  5. Jeffrey S. DeSimone & Courtney LaFountain, 2007. "Still the Economy, Stupid: Economic Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election," NBER Working Papers 13549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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