Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
AbstractWhile most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient conditions under which prediction markets prices correspond with mean beliefs. Beyond these specific sufficient conditions, we show that for a broad class of models prediction market prices are usually close to the mean beliefs of traders. The key parameters driving trading behavior in prediction markets are the degree of risk aversion and the distribution on beliefs, and we provide some novel data on the distribution of beliefs in a couple of interesting contexts. We find that prediction markets prices typically provide useful (albeit sometimes biased) estimates of average beliefs about the probability an event occurs.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2092.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock (eds), Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions in the Public and Private Sectors, AEI-Brookings Press, 2006
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Other versions of this item:
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," NBER Working Papers 12200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities," Working Paper Series 2006-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 5676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004.
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Working paper 259, Regulation2point0.
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Research Papers 1854, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Discussion Papers 03-025, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- Charles F. Manski, 2004.
"Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
10359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 425-429, June.
- Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, 04.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
- Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2003.
"What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?,"
NBER Working Papers
9587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven Gjerstad, 2004. "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium," Microeconomics 0411002, EconWPA.
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