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Electoral Cycles: Do they really fit the Data?

Author

Listed:
  • A. Galeotti

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • G. Salford

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical model of pre-electoral budget cycle and tests its empirical implications. Whenelections approach, incumbent policy-makers have an incentive to signal their competency by acting on economicvariables. Rational voters incorporate the knowledge of such mechanisms in their decisions, evaluatinggovernments on the basis of unexpected policy.Available data confirms the hypothesis that economies are manipulated during election years, but voters do not seem tobehave as predicted. Alteration of fiscal variables may be due to an attempt on the incumbent's part at influencingeconomic growth performance as opposed to an experiment in direct signalling .

Suggested Citation

  • A. Galeotti & G. Salford, 2001. "Electoral Cycles: Do they really fit the Data?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-076/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20010076
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    Cited by:

    1. Antoine CAZALS & Pierre MANDON, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 201609, CERDI.
    2. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," CERDI Working papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    3. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Paper series 42_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. repec:rim:rimwps:42-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2015. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01238883, HAL.
    6. Antoine Cazals & Pierre Mandon, 2016. "Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers halshs-01320586, HAL.
    7. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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