Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Lost Popularity Function: Are Unemployment and Inflation no longer Relevant for the Bahaviour of German Voters?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Gebhard Kirchgässner

Abstract

Up to now there was a general conviction that increasing unemployment and inflation have a negative impact on the government’s popularity. This was true for Germany as well, but it does not seem to hold any longer. This paper first reviews the results of earlier periods before presenting new results for the last part of the Kohl government after unification and for the Schröder government. While the results for the former show the known pattern, neither unemployment nor inflation is significant in the equations of the Schröder government, the latter has even the wrong sign. The missing impact of unemployment might be due to statistical reasons: the short observation period and the low variance of the explanatory variables. With respect to inflation, however, the citizens might have recognised that they cannot any longer hold the government responsible as the European Central Bank is performing monetary policy in Europe since 1999 and is, therefore, also responsible for price stability in Germany.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-12/cesifo1_wp2882.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2882.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2882

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Email:
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: government popularity; popularity function; Germany; unemployment; inflation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
  2. Muller, Ulrich K., 2005. "Size and power of tests of stationarity in highly autocorrelated time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 195-213, October.
  3. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, September.
  4. van Riel, Arthur & Schram, Arthur, 1993. "Weimar Economic Decline, Nazi Economic Recovery, and the Stabilization of Political Dictatorship," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(01), pages 71-105, March.
  5. Frey, Bruno S. & Schneider, Friedrich, 1981. "Central bank behavior : A positive empirical analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 291-315.
  6. Vaubel, Roland, 1997. "The bureaucratic and partisan behavior of independent central banks: German and international evidence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 201-224, May.
  7. Ammermüller, Andreas & Zwick, Thomas & Boockmann, Bernhard & Maier, Michael, 2007. "Do hiring subsidies reduce unemployment among the elderly? Evidence from two natural experiments," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-001, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Soeren Enkelmann & Michael Berlemann, 2013. "The Economic Determinants of U.S. Presidential Approval - A Survey," Working Paper Series in Economics 272, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
  2. Roth, Felix & Jonung, Lars & Nowak-Lehmann D.,Felicitas, 2011. "The Enduring Popularity of the Euro throughout the Crisis," CEPS Papers 6512, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  3. Roth, Felix & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Otter, Thomas, 2011. "Has the financial crisis shattered citizens’ trust in national and European governmental institutions? Evidence from the EU member states, 1999-2010," CEPS Papers 4159, Centre for European Policy Studies.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2882. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.