By-elections, changing fortunes, uncertainty and the mid-term blues
AbstractIf voters care about the size of the government's majority, then by-election votes should exaggerate national swings. Moreover, if there is uncertainty about the outcome of the general election and if voters” preferences are skewed in such a way as to give more weight to the “downside” outcome (least favourite party wins) than the “upside” (favoured party wins with a larger than preferred majority), then there will be a systematic tendency for governments to lose by-elections, regardless of any changes in national support. These predictions go beyond those generated by conventional explanations. The theory is successfully tested against data from 383 post-War elections. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.
Volume (Year): 95 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332
Other versions of this item:
- Price, Simon & Sanders, David, 1998. " By-Elections, Changing Fortunes, Uncertainty and the Mid-Term Blues," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(1-2), pages 131-48, April.
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