IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v42y2016icp153-166.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Political connection, government policy, and investor trading: Evidence from an emerging market

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Chih-Yung
  • Ho, Po-Hsin
  • Shen, Chung-Hua
  • Wang, Yu-Chun

Abstract

This study investigates whether political connection (PC), government policy (GP), or both affect stock returns before and after the Taiwanese 2008 presidential election. We also examine whether the two effects influence the five types of investor trading during the election. Past studies have separately focused on either the PC or the GP effect, whereas this study considers both effects. Specifically, we consider five types of investors, namely, foreign investors, security investment trust companies (INVTRUSTs), security dealers, board of directors and supervisors, and individual investors. We find that firms connecting only with the winning party exhibit positive abnormal returns, and only INVTRUSTs increase the shareholdings of these firms (PC effect). Our results do not support the GP effect alone. Instead, we identify that firms with joint PC and GP effects have the abnormal returns during election periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Chih-Yung & Ho, Po-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua & Wang, Yu-Chun, 2016. "Political connection, government policy, and investor trading: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 153-166.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:42:y:2016:i:c:p:153-166
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.09.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056015001537
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2015.09.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hyuk Choe & Bong-Chan Kho & René M. Stulz, 2005. "Do Domestic Investors Have an Edge? The Trading Experience of Foreign Investors in Korea," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 795-829.
    2. Lin, Anchor Y. & Lin, Yueh-Neng, 2014. "Herding of institutional investors and margin traders on extreme market movements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 186-198.
    3. Yan-Shing Chen & Chung-Hua Shen & Chih-Yung Lin, 2014. "The Benefits of Political Connection: Evidence from Individual Bank-Loan Contracts," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 287-305, June.
    4. Hong, Harrison & Kostovetsky, Leonard, 2012. "Red and blue investing: Values and finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 1-19.
    5. Thomas Ferguson & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2008. "Betting on Hitler—The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 101-137.
    6. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    7. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Li, Jun, 2013. "Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 305-324.
    8. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1994. "Protection for Sale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 833-850, September.
    9. Su, Zhong-qin & Fung, Hung-Gay & Huang, Deng-shi & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2014. "Cash dividends, expropriation, and political connections: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 260-272.
    10. Eitan Goldman & Jörg Rocholl & Jongil So, 2009. "Do Politically Connected Boards Affect Firm Value?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2331-2360, June.
    11. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Alexei V. Ovtchinnikov, 2010. "Corporate Political Contributions and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 687-724, April.
    12. Bae, Kee-Hong & Stulz, René M. & Tan, Hongping, 2008. "Do local analysts know more? A cross-country study of the performance of local analysts and foreign analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 581-606, June.
    13. Yao-Min Chiang & Yiming Qian & Ann E. Sherman, 2010. "Endogenous Entry and Partial Adjustment in IPO Auctions: Are Institutional Investors Better Informed?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 1200-1230, March.
    14. Kim, Chansog (Francis) & Pantzalis, Christos & Chul Park, Jung, 2012. "Political geography and stock returns: The value and risk implications of proximity to political power," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 196-228.
    15. Richard W. Sias, 2010. "Insider Trades and Demand by Institutional and Individual Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1544-1595, April.
    16. Li, Hongbin & Meng, Lingsheng & Wang, Qian & Zhou, Li-An, 2008. "Political connections, financing and firm performance: Evidence from Chinese private firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 283-299, October.
    17. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    18. Kroszner, Randall S & Stratmann, Thomas, 2005. "Corporate Campaign Contributions, Repeat Giving, and the Rewards to Legislator Reputation," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 41-71, April.
    19. Yao, Juan & Ma, Chuanchan & He, William Peng, 2014. "Investor herding behaviour of Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-29.
    20. Duchin, Ran & Sosyura, Denis, 2012. "The politics of government investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 24-48.
    21. Dasilas, Apostolos & Leventis, Stergios, 2011. "Corrigendum to [`]Stock market reaction to dividend announcements: Evidence from the Greek stock market' [Int. Rev. Econ. Finance 20 (2011) 302-311]," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 852-852, October.
    22. Mara Faccio, 2006. "Politically Connected Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 369-386, March.
    23. Grinblatt, Mark & Keloharju, Matti, 2000. "The investment behavior and performance of various investor types: a study of Finland's unique data set," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-67, January.
    24. Dasilas, Apostolos & Leventis, Stergios, 2011. "Stock market reaction to dividend announcements: Evidence from the Greek stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 302-311, April.
    25. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    26. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 837-849, August.
    27. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    28. Knight*, Brian, 2007. "Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 389-409, February.
    29. Claessens, Stijn & Feijen, Erik & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Political connections and preferential access to finance: The role of campaign contributions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 554-580, June.
    30. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    31. Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Stagiannis, Apostolos, 2011. "Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 532-541, October.
    32. Chen, Li-Wen & Johnson, Shane A. & Lin, Ji-Chai & Liu, Yu-Jane, 2009. "Information, sophistication, and foreign versus domestic investors' performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1636-1651, September.
    33. Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, June.
    34. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    35. Faccio, Mara & Parsley, David C., 2009. "Sudden Deaths: Taking Stock of Geographic Ties," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 683-718, June.
    36. Vo, Minh T., 2008. "Strategic trading when some investors receive information before others," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 319-332.
    37. Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
    38. Brad M. Barber & Yi-Tsung Lee & Yu-Jane Liu & Terrance Odean, 2009. "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 609-632, February.
    39. Bae, Sung C. & Chang, Kiyoung & Kim, Doseong, 2013. "Determinants of target selection and acquirer returns: Evidence from cross-border acquisitions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 552-565.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Jen-Sin & Yen, Pi-Hsia & Lee, Liang-Chien, 2019. "Political connection and stock returns: Evidence from party alternation in Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-137.
    2. Shaikh, Imlak, 2017. "The 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Stock, FX and VIX markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 546-563.
    3. Faraji, Omid & Kashanipour, Mohammad & MohammadRezaei, Fakhroddin & Ahmed, Kamran & Vatanparast, Nader, 2020. "Political connections, political cycles and stock returns: Evidence from Iran," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    4. K. Batu Tunaya & Serhat Yüksel, 2017. "The relationship between corporate governance andforeign ownership of the banks in developing countries," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(5), pages 25-26, Diciembre.
    5. Li, Xiaoqing & Qiao, Penghua & Zhao, Lin, 2019. "CEO media exposure, political connection and Chinese firms' stock price synchronicity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 61-75.
    6. Su, Zhong-qin & Xiao, Zuoping & Yu, Lin, 2019. "Do political connections enhance or impede corporate innovation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 94-110.
    7. Shen, Chung-Hua & Bui, Dien Giau & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2017. "Do political factors affect stock returns during presidential elections?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 180-198.
    8. Imlak Shaikh, 2019. "The U.S. Presidential Election 2012/2016 and Investors’ Sentiment: The Case of CBOE Market Volatility Index," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, July.
    9. Yuping Deng & Yanrui Wu & Helian Xu, 2020. "Political Connections and Firm Pollution Behaviour: An Empirical Study," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(4), pages 867-898, April.
    10. Dang, Vinh Q.T. & So, Erin P.K. & Yan, Isabel K.M., 2018. "The value of political connection: Evidence from the 2011 Egyptian revolution," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 238-257.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Deng, Yuping & Wu, Yanrui & Xu, Helian, 2019. "Political connections and firm pollution behaviour: An empirical study," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Yi, Shangkun & Wang, Jian & Wang, Xiaoting & Feng, Hongrui, 2022. "CEO political connection and stock sentiment beta: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2015. "Betting on presidential elections: Should we buy stocks connected with the winning party?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 98-109.
    2. Shen, Chung-Hua & Bui, Dien Giau & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2017. "Do political factors affect stock returns during presidential elections?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 180-198.
    3. Chung-Hua Shen & Chih-Yung Lin, 2016. "Political connections, financial constraints, and corporate investment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 343-368, August.
    4. Lee, Jen-Sin & Yen, Pi-Hsia & Lee, Liang-Chien, 2019. "Political connection and stock returns: Evidence from party alternation in Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-137.
    5. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    6. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    7. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Chih-Yung & Wang, Yu-Chun, 2015. "Do strong corporate governance firms still require political connection, and vice versa?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 107-120.
    8. Wang, Fangjun & Xu, Luying & Zhang, Junrui & Shu, Wei, 2018. "Political connections, internal control and firm value: Evidence from China's anti-corruption campaign," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 53-67.
    9. Brown, Jeffrey R. & Huang, Jiekun, 2020. "All the president's friends: Political access and firm value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 415-431.
    10. Ilona Babenko & Viktar Fedaseyeu & Song Zhang, 2017. "Do CEOs affect employees' political choices?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1750, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C. & Zhang, Tianyu, 2015. "Mixing business with politics: Political participation by entrepreneurs in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 220-235.
    12. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen, 2013. "Political Connections and Firm Value: Evidence from the Regression Discontinuity Design of Close Gubernatorial Elections," Working Papers hal-03460972, HAL.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/65rged1j6o9gl9jvp8a09o3eue is not listed on IDEAS
    14. David Schoenherr, 2019. "Political Connections and Allocative Distortions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 543-586, April.
    15. Gropper, Daniel M. & Jahera, John S. & Park, Jung Chul, 2013. "Does it help to have friends in high places? Bank stock performance and congressional committee chairmanships," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1986-1999.
    16. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2021. "The impact of political uncertainty on institutional ownership," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    17. Faraji, Omid & Kashanipour, Mohammad & MohammadRezaei, Fakhroddin & Ahmed, Kamran & Vatanparast, Nader, 2020. "Political connections, political cycles and stock returns: Evidence from Iran," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    18. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen, 2013. "Political Connections and Firm Value: Evidence from the Regression Discontinuity Design of Close Gubernatorial Elections," Working Papers hal-03460972, HAL.
    19. Bo Liu & Kemin Wang, 2019. "Uncertainty of political subsidy, heterogeneous beliefs, and IPO anomalies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 923-951, May.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n0dcia0po is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Su, Zhong-qin & Xiao, Zuoping & Yu, Lin, 2019. "Do political connections enhance or impede corporate innovation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 94-110.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political connection; Government policy; Stock returns; Investor trading; Presidential election;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:42:y:2016:i:c:p:153-166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.