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Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election

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  • Imai, Masami
  • Shelton, Cameron A.
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    Abstract

    We examine the effects of party platforms on the economic opportunities of firms using a unique data set from a political prediction market in Taiwan, a country with two dominant parties whose political cleavage derives mainly from a single issue: the "One China Principle". We find that during the 2008 Presidential campaign, the share price of Taiwanese firms with investments in the mainland responded strongly and positively to a positive electoral outlook for the KMT, the party which advocates lifting caps on cross-strait investment in mainland China. The response is strongest for those firms who have already hit their caps.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V76-51Y57J3-1/2/2fd77a2d24a58f3af58ff6df53a6de79
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Public Economics.

    Volume (Year): 95 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 7-8 (August)
    Pages: 837-849

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:95:y:2011:i:7-8:p:837-849

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578

    Related research

    Keywords: Partisan effects Taiwan;

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    Cited by:
    1. Chen, Pei-Fen & Liu, Ping-Chin, 2013. "Bank ownership, performance, and the politics: Evidence from Taiwan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 578-585.

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