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Measurement of Political Effects in the United States Economy: A Study of the 1992 Presidential Election

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  • Michael C. Herron
  • James Lavin
  • Donald Cram
  • Jay Silver
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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes the link between the 1992 United States presidential election outcome and a collection of American economic sectors. Based on data from the 1992 Iowa Political Stock Market and campaign-period stock portfolio behavior, we identify 15 economic sectors, of 74 examined, whose profits varied in a statistically significant manner with movements in Iowa Market-based measures of presidential candidate standing. And, in light of 1992 campaign rhetoric pertaining to defense policy and environmental issues, we build on this finding with an analysis of selected defense firms and firms known to be toxic waste emitters. Copyright 1999 Blackwell Publishers Ltd..

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Economics and Politics.

    Volume (Year): 11 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 1 (03)
    Pages: 51-81

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:11:y:1999:i:1:p:51-81

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    Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0954-1985

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    Cited by:
    1. Brian Knight, 2004. "Are Policy Platforms Capitalized into Equity Prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election," NBER Working Papers 10333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Yi-Hsien Wang & Jui-Cheng Hung & Hsiu-Hsueh Kao & Kuang-Hsun Shih, 2011. "Long-term relationship between political behavior and stock market return: new evidence from quantile regression," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1361-1367, October.
    3. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2013. "The effects of surprise political events on quoted firms: the March 2004 election in Spain," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 83-112, March.
    4. Jorge Hargrave Gonçalves Da Silva, 2014. "Partisan Politics And Country Risk: Evidence From The 2002 Brazilian Presidential Election," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Camyar, Isa & Ulupinar, Bahar, 2013. "The partisan policy cycle and firm valuation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 92-111.
    6. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 837-849.
    7. Yi-Hsien Wang & Jui-Cheng Hung & Yen-Hsien Lee & Chung-Chu Chuang, 2012. "Computing regression quantiles to analysis the relationship between market behavior and political risk," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1047-1055, June.

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