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Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government-sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme?

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  • ALBERT N. LINK
  • JOHN T. SCOTT

Abstract

An objective of the US Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) programme is the private sector commercialization of funded R&D projects. However, our estimate of the actual or expected probability of commercialization of such R&D is fairly low; our analysis of Department of Defense (DoD) Phase II awards suggests that the estimated probability of commercialization is only 0.47. We investigate econometrically whether outside private investors have useful information about proposed SBIR projects' prospects for commercialization. Our findings suggest that they do, thereby providing support for the possibility that a prediction market could improve the performance of the SBIR programme. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2008.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 76 (2009)
Issue (Month): 302 (04)
Pages: 264-281

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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:76:y:2009:i:302:p:264-281

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Cited by:
  1. Albert Link & John Scott, 2012. "Employment growth from the Small Business Innovation Research program," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 265-287, September.
  2. Albert N. Link & John T. Scott, 2012. "Employment growth from public support of innovation in small firms," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 655-678, October.
  3. Link, Albert N. & Scott, John T., 2012. "The Exploitation of Publicly Funded Technology," Working Papers 12-5, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics.
  4. Donald Siegel & Charles Wessner, 2009. "Universities and the Success of Entrepreneurial Ventures: Evidence from the Small Business Innovation Research Program," Working Papers 1, Jerusalem Institute for Market Studies (JIMS).
  5. Link, Albert N. & Scott, John T., 2013. "Bending the Arc of Innovation: Public Support of R&D in Small, Entrepreneurial Firms," Working Papers 13-8, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics.
  6. Gicheva, Dora & Link, Albert N., 2011. "Leveraging Entrepreneurship through Private Investments: Does Gender Matter?," Working Papers 11-21, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics.
  7. Aldridge, T. Taylor & Audretsch, David, 2011. "The Bayh-Dole Act and scientist entrepreneurship," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1058-1067, October.
  8. Link, Albert N. & Scott, John T., 2010. "Government as entrepreneur: Evaluating the commercialization success of SBIR projects," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 589-601, June.

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