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D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture

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  • David Bessler
  • Zijun Wang

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  • David Bessler & Zijun Wang, 2012. "D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 295-314, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:73:y:2012:i:2:p:295-314
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-012-9305-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    2. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
    3. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, January.
    4. Henry L. Bryant & David A. Bessler & Michael S. Haigh, 2009. "Disproving Causal Relationships Using Observational Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 357-374, June.
    5. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    6. Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
    7. David Harvey & Paul Newbold, 2000. "Tests for multiple forecast encompassing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 471-482.
    8. Clive W. J. Granger, 2005. "Modeling, Evaluation, and Methodology in the New Century," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 1-12, January.
    9. Bessler, David A. & Brandt, Jon A., 1992. "An analysis of forecasts of livestock prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 249-263, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David A. Bessler & Shahriar Kibriya & Junyi Chen & Edwin Price, 2016. "On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009–2012," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 179-188, March.
    2. Andrew Rettenmaier & Zijun Wang, 2013. "What determines health: a causal analysis using county level data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 14(5), pages 821-834, October.
    3. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "Prequential forecasting in the presence of structure breaks in natural gas spot markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2363-2384, November.
    4. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2023. "Coking coal futures price index forecasting with the neural network," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 349-359, June.
    5. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Commodity price forecasting via neural networks for coffee, corn, cotton, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar, and wheat," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 169-181, July.
    6. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2023. "Neural network predictions of the high-frequency CSI300 first distant futures trading volume," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(2), pages 191-207, June.
    7. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2022. "The Role of Pre-Commitments and Engle Curves in Thailand’s Aggregate Energy Demand System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model choice; Artificial intelligence; Forecast; B41; C45; C53;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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