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Modeling, Evaluation, and Methodology in the New Century

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  • Clive W. J. Granger

Abstract

The modern world has influenced the approach to empirical modeling and consequently the approach to methodology in general. The question of whether to base a model on an economic theory is easier when several models can be constructed, but an empirical evaluation analysis is required. Starting with a widely specified model and using a reduction procedure is currently a popular process; it is unclear if the reduction should be to a single or to a few alternatives. New methodologies are required for conditional predictive distributions, which are the models of the future. (JEL B41, C50) Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 43 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-12

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:43:y:2005:i:1:p:1-12

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Cited by:
  1. Andrew Rettenmaier & Zijun Wang, 2013. "What determines health: a causal analysis using county level data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 14(5), pages 821-834, October.
  2. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2008. "Optimizing Time-series Forecasts for Inflation and Interest Rates Using Simulation and Model Averaging," Economics Series 231, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  3. David Bessler & Zijun Wang, 2012. "D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 295-314, August.

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