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Testing For Weekly Seasonal Unit Roots In Daily Electricity Demand: Evidence From Deregulated Markets

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  • Antonio Rubia

    (Universidad de Alicante)

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    Abstract

    This paper analyses the nature of the weekly seasonal component in daily observations for the electricity demand series from several deregulated markets. We present and use the extension of the seasonal unit roots test of Hylleberg et al (1990) to the weekly seasonality case to formally determine whether the seasonal component of each variable exhibits stochastic non-stationarity. Daily demand series are taken from the Spanish, Argentine and Victoria State (Australia) Electricity Wholesale Markets. We find that only in the case of the Australian electricity demand there is evidence of unit roots, so the usual differentiating procedure employed in conventional time series models or regression approaches could imply a mis-specification. Este trabajo examina la naturaleza del componente estacional semanal presente en las observaciones diarias de la demanda de electricidad de distintos mercados liberalizados. Se presenta y se utiliza la extensión del contraste de raíces unitarias estacionales de Hylleberg et al. (1990) para el caso de estacionalidad semanal en datos de frecuencia diaria, con la finalidad de determinar formalmente si el componente estacional de cada serie muestra o no comportamientos no-estacionarios. Las series de demanda se han obtenido de los mercados mayoristas de electricidad de Argentina, España y del estado de Victoria (Australia). La evidencia muestra que sólo en el caso de Victoria parecen existir raíces unitarias, por lo que el procedimiento habitual de diferenciación en la metodología de series temporales o de regresión implicaría la incorrecta especificación del auténtico proceso subyacente.

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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2001-21.pdf
    File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2001
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2001-21.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2001
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published by Ivie
    Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2001-21

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    Related research

    Keywords: Demanda eléctrica; contraste HEGY; raíces unitarias estacionales. Electric power; HEGY test; seasonal unit roots.;

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    References

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    1. Juan RodrÎguez-Poo, 2000. "Constrained nonparametric regression analysis of load curves," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 229-246.
    2. Ghysels, E. & Perron, P., 1990. "The Effect Of Seasonal Adjustment Filters On Tests For A Unit Root," Papers 355, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    3. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
    4. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
    5. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October.
    6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    7. Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Nabot, Dan, 1999. "The demand for electricity in Israel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 168-183, April.
    8. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hallman, J. J., 1989. "Merging short-and long-run forecasts : An application of seasonal cointegration to monthly electricity sales forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-62, January.
    9. Lee, Hahn Shik, 1992. "Maximum likelihood inference on cointegration and seasonal cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 1-47.
    10. Johansen, S. & Schaumburg, E., 1997. "Likelihood Analysis of Seasonal Cointegration," Economics Working Papers eco97/16, European University Institute.
    11. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    12. Zacharias Psaradakis, 1997. "Testing for unit roots in time series with nearly deterministic seasonal variation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 421-439.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ángel León & Antonio Rubia, 2002. "Forecasting Time-Varying Covariance Matrices In Intradaily Electricity Spot Prices," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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