Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

دراسة قياسية للنماذج الديناميكية مع تطبيقها على التنبؤ بالعمالة فى مصر
[An Econometric Study of Dynamic Models with Application on Forecasting Labor in Egypt]

Contents:

Author Info

  • Khaleel, Tarek Mohamed
  • Shehata, Emad Abd Elmessih

Abstract

There are many econometric methods for forecasting by different economic variables in the future. recently, the procedures of dynamic forecasting either for univariate or multivariate models were available for estimation on the software packages, i.e., EVIEWS, SAS, and SHAZAM. The research problem of the study, concerned with the different types of such dynamic models, with respect to, estimation, choosing the best fit model for forecasting by the economic variables, i.e., labor and wages on the agricultural and national level. So the objective study, is to concentration and determination the best forecasting model among univariate and multivariate dynamic time series models. The time series data on the agricultural and national level were collected from the ministry of planning during the period (1975-2002). The methodology framework discussed the theoretical and mathematical approach for the dynamic univariate models, i.e., autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and multivariate models, i.e., vector autoregressive (VAR), vector error correction model (VECM), and state space model (SSM). The dynamic models contain four stages that have, identification, i.e., stationarity and cointegration tests, model selection criteria for determination the lag length, causality test, and choosing the techniques of estimation,also estimation stage, diagnostic stage for model accuracy, and forecasting stage. The study estimated the dynamic models by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for (ARIMA) models, and by seemingly unrelated regression for (VAR) and (VECM) models, during the period (1975-2002), and forecasting by labor and wage through the period (2003-2012). The estimation and forecasting results, indicated that the agricultural labor will increase at decreasing rate, also the relative share of agricultural labor and the total agricultural wages will decrease during the period subject to forecasting. The national labor will increase at increasing rate. Finally the study recommended by cultivation crops, adoption technology, and encouragement the investment in projects that have intensive labor, the expanding in reclamation and cultivation new lands and national projects, also increasing wages that reflect the labor productivity and performance level for increasing the efficiency of labor input.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43442/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43442.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2004
Date of revision: Apr 2004
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43442

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Forecasting; Labor; ARIMA; VAR; VECM; State Space;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43442. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.