Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)

Contents:

Author Info

  • Claudio Cicinelli
  • Andrea Cossio
  • Francesco Nucci
  • Ottavio Ricchi
  • Cristian Tegami

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a description of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM). We illustrate its general structure and model properties, especially with regard to the economy's response to changes in policy and in other dimensions of the economic environment. The model has a quarterly frequency and includes 371 variables. Out of these, 124 are exogenous and 247 endogenous. The model structure features 36 behavioral equations and 211 identities. One of the key features of the model is the joint representation of the economic environment on both the demand and the supply side. Since it is designed for the needs of a Treasury Department, its public finance section is developed in great detail, both on the expenditure and revenue side. It also features a complete modeling of financial assets and liabilities of each institutional sector. After documenting the model structure and the estimation results, we turn to the outcomes of model simulation and ascertain the model properties. In ITEM the shocks that generate permanent effects on output are associated with: a) variation of variables that affect the tax wedge in the labor market and the user cost of capital; b) labor supply change; c) variation in the trend component of TFP (technical progress). By contrast, variables that exert their effects on the demand side have only temporary effects on output. We also perform in-sample dynamic simulation of the model. This allows us to derive simulated values of all the endogenous variables which can be compared with the corresponding actual values. This allows us to appraise, for each aggregate, whether the simulated values track the observed data.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.dt.tesoro.it/modules/documenti_en/analisi_progammazione/working_papers/n.-1-2008---The-Italian-Treasury-Econometric-Model----ITEM.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance in its series Working Papers with number wp2008-1.

as in new window
Length: 40
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:itt:wpaper:wp2008-1

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.dt.tesoro.it
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Macroeconometric models; Economic Policy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Argia M. Sbordone, 1993. "Cyclical productivity in a model of labor hoarding," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 93-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  5. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, Octomber.
  6. Cicinelli, Claudio & Cossio, Andrea & Nucci, Francesco & Ricchi, Ottavio & Tegami, Cristian, 2010. "The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 125-133, January.
  7. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "Model Evaluation in Macroeconometrics: from early empirical macroeconomic models to DSGE models," Working Papers 327, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  8. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850, Octomber.
  9. Bernanke, Ben S & Parkinson, Martin L, 1991. "Procyclical Labor Productivity and Competing Theories of the Business Cycle: Some Evidence from Interwar U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 439-59, June.
  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  11. Spanos, Aris, 1990. "The simultaneous-equations model revisited : Statistical adequacy and identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 87-105.
  12. Dave Turner & Pete Richardson & Sylvie Rauffet, 1996. "Modelling the Supply Side of the Seven Major OECD Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 167, OECD Publishing.
  13. Fiorito, Riccardo, 2003. "Inventory changes and the closing of macroeconometric models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 75-84, January.
  14. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
  15. Susanto Basu, 1995. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," NBER Working Papers 5336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, 2013. "Assessing policy reforms for Italy using ITEM and QUESTIII," CEIS Research Paper 280, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 17 May 2013.
  2. Cicinelli, Claudio & Cossio, Andrea & Nucci, Francesco & Ricchi, Ottavio & Tegami, Cristian, 2010. "The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 125-133, January.
  3. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, . "Macroeconomic Modelling and the Effects of Policy Reforms: an Assessment for Italy using ITEM and," Working Papers 1, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  4. Stefania P. S. Rossi & Guido Pellegrini & Ornella Tarola, 2006. "Macroeconometric modelling for evaluationg the policy impact on growth in dualistic countries: the case of Southern Italian Regions," Vienna Economics Papers 0607, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:itt:wpaper:wp2008-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marina Sabatini).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.