The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM)
AbstractIn this paper, we provide a description of the Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM). We illustrate its general structure and model properties, especially with regard to the economy's response to changes in policy and in other dimensions of the economic environment. The model has a quarterly frequency and includes 371 variables. Out of these, 124 are exogenous and 247 endogenous. The model structure features 36 behavioral equations and 211 identities. One of the key features of the model is the joint representation of the economic environment on both the demand and the supply side. Since it is designed for the needs of a Treasury Department, its public finance section is developed in great detail, both on the expenditure and revenue side. It also features a complete modeling of financial assets and liabilities of each institutional sector. After documenting the model structure and the estimation results, we turn to the outcomes of model simulation and ascertain the model properties. In ITEM the shocks that generate permanent effects on output are associated with: a) variation of variables that affect the tax wedge in the labor market and the user cost of capital; b) labor supply change; c) variation in the trend component of TFP (technical progress). By contrast, variables that exert their effects on the demand side have only temporary effects on output. We also perform in-sample dynamic simulation of the model. This allows us to derive simulated values of all the endogenous variables which can be compared with the corresponding actual values. This allows us to appraise, for each aggregate, whether the simulated values track the observed data.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance in its series Working Papers with number wp2008-1.
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Macroeconometric models; Economic Policy;
Other versions of this item:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Martin L. Parkinson, 1990.
"Procyclical Labor Productivity and Competing Theories of the Business Cycle: Some Evidence from Interwar U.S. Manufacturing Industries,"
NBER Working Papers
3503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Parkinson, Martin L, 1991. "Procyclical Labor Productivity and Competing Theories of the Business Cycle: Some Evidence from Interwar U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 439-59, June.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997.
"Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994.
"Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
- Enrique G. Mendoza & Assaf Razin & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Effective Tax Rates in Macroeconomics: Cross-Country Estimates of Tax Rates on Factor Incomes and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 4864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850.
- Argia M. Sbordone, 1993.
"Cyclical productivity in a model of labor hoarding,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
93-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Sbordone, Argia M., 1996. "Cyclical productivity in a model of labor hoarding," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 331-361, October.
- Fiorito, Riccardo, 2003. "Inventory changes and the closing of macroeconometric models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 75-84, January.
- Dave Turner & Pete Richardson & Sylvie Rauffet, 1996. "Modelling the Supply Side of the Seven Major OECD Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 167, OECD Publishing.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002.
"An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area,"
Working Paper Research
35, National Bank of Belgium.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
- Claudio Cicinelli & Andrea Cossio & Francesco Nucci & Ottavio Ricchi & Cristian Tegami, .
"The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM),"
wp2008-1, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
- Luca Sessa & Libero Monteforte & Lorenzo Forni, 2007.
"The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: estimates for the euro area,"
2007 Meeting Papers
352, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
- Lorenzo Forni & Libero Monteforte & Luca Sessa, 2007. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: estimates for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 652, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Spanos, Aris, 1990. "The simultaneous-equations model revisited : Statistical adequacy and identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 87-105.
- Susanto Basu, 1999.
"Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?,"
NBER Working Papers
5336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Basu, Susanto, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 719-51, August.
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
- Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "Model Evaluation in Macroeconometrics: from early empirical macroeconomic models to DSGE models," Working Papers 327, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Cicinelli, Claudio & Cossio, Andrea & Nucci, Francesco & Ricchi, Ottavio & Tegami, Cristian, 2010.
"The Italian Treasury Econometric Model (ITEM),"
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 125-133, January.
- Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, . "Macroeconomic Modelling and the Effects of Policy Reforms: an Assessment for Italy using ITEM and," Working Papers 1, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
- Stefania P. S. Rossi & Guido Pellegrini & Ornella Tarola, 2006. "Macroeconometric modelling for evaluationg the policy impact on growth in dualistic countries: the case of Southern Italian Regions," Vienna Economics Papers 0607, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marina Sabatini).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.