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Strategic and tactical asset allocation and the effect of long-run equilibrium relations

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  • Lucas, André

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

Abstract

This article focuses on the relevance of long-term equilibrium relations for financial decision making. Special attention is devoted to optimal asset allocation in the presence of possibly cointegrated time-series, e.g., asset prices. Using a stylized asset allocation problem, the link is established between the number of cointegrating relations and their precise form on the one hand, and the optimal asset allocation on the other hand. The paper disentangles the different effects of long-term relations on optimal asset allocation with different planning horizons: error-correction mainly affects tactical asset allocation, while cointegration affects strategic asset allocation. The paper also presents results on the effects of incorporating an incorrect number of error-correction mechanisms in financial decision models. Mis-specifying the number of cointegrating relations in a scenario generator can induce either inefficient or overly risky financial management decisions. The findings are illustrated using a stylized empirical example from currency management.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas, André, 1997. "Strategic and tactical asset allocation and the effect of long-run equilibrium relations," Serie Research Memoranda 0042, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    • Handle: RePEc:vua:wpaper:1997-42
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    Cited by:

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    2. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200911, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.
    3. Xiao, Zhijie, 2009. "Quantile cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 248-260, June.
    4. Bruno Breyer Caldas & João Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Vale Moura, 2016. "Is Pairs Trading Performance Sensitive To The Methodologies?: A Comparison," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 130, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Febrian, Erie & Herwany, Aldrin, 2007. "Co-integration and Causality Among Jakarta Stock Exchange, Singapore Stock Exchange, and Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 9632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sant’Anna, Leonardo R. & Filomena, Tiago P. & Caldeira, João F., 2017. "Index tracking and enhanced indexing using cointegration and correlation with endogenous portfolio selection," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 146-157.
    7. João Frois Caldeira & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2010. "Long-Short Market Neutral and Index Tracking Strategies Based on Cointegrated Portfolios," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 469-504.
    8. Krishna M. Kasibhatla & David Stewart & Swapan Sen & John Malindretos, 2006. "Are Daily Stock Price Indices in the Major European Equity Markets Cointegrated? Tests and Evidence," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 50(2), pages 47-57, October.
    9. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne P駵in-Feissolle, 2013. "Long-run relationships between international stock prices: further evidence from fractional cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 817-828, March.
    10. João Frois Caldeira & Gulherme Valle Moura, 2013. "Selection of a Portfolio of Pairs Based on Cointegration: A Statistical Arbitrage Strategy," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 11(1), pages 49-80.
    11. Herwany, Aldrin & Febrian, Erie, 2008. "Co-integration and Causality Analysis on Developed Asian Markets For Risk Management & Portfolio Selection," MPRA Paper 10259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Roland Füss & Felix Schindler, 2011. "Diversifikationsvorteile verbriefter Immobilienanlagen in einem Mixed‐Asset‐Portfolio," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(2), pages 170-191, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Error-Correction; Tactical Asset Allocation; Strategic As-set Allocation; Mean Reversion; Non-Stationarity; Mis-specified Equilib-rium Relationships; Currency Management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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