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Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a Vector Autoregressive Process with Uncertain Deterministic Trend Term

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  • Matei Demetrescu
  • Helmut Luetkepohl
  • Pentti Saikkonen

Abstract

When applying Johansen's procedure for determining the cointegrating rank to systems of variables with linear deterministic trends, there are two possible tests to choose from. One test allows for a trend in the cointegration relations and the other one restricts the trend to be orthogonal to the cointegration relations. The first test is known to have reduced power relative to the second one if there is in fact no trend in the cointegration relations, whereas the second one is based on a misspecified model if the linear trend is not orthogonal to the cointegration relations. Hence, the treatment of the linear trend term is crucial for the outcome of the rank determination procedure. We compare two alternative testing strategies which are applicable if there is uncertainty regarding the proper trend specification. In the first one a specific cointegrating rank is rejected if one of the two tests rejects and in the second one the trend term is decided upon by a pretest. The first strategy is shown to be preferable in applied work.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number ECO2008/24.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2008/24

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Keywords: Cointegration analysis; likelihood ratio test; vector autoregressive model; vector error correction model;

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  1. Coenen, Günter & Vega, Juan Luis, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0006, European Central Bank.
  2. Demetrescu, Matei & Kuzin, Vladimir & Hassler, Uwe, 2008. "Long Memory Testing In The Time Domain," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 176-215, February.
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  10. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.
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Cited by:
  1. Serge REY & Jacques JAUSSAUD, 2009. "Long-Run Determinants of Japanese Exports to China and the United States: A Sectoral Analysis," Working Papers 4, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2009.
  2. Guillaume Chevillon, 2013. "Robust Cointegration Testing in the Presence of Weak Trends, with an Application to the Human Origin of Global Warming," Post-Print hal-00914830, HAL.
  3. Serge REY & Jacques JAUSSAUD, 2009. "Long-Run Determinants of Japanese Import Flows from USA and China: A Sectoral Approach," Working Papers 8, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2009.
  4. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2012. "Local-Explosive Approximations to Null Distributions of the Johansen Cointegration Test, with an Application to Cyclical Concordance in the Euro Area," ESSEC Working Papers WP1210, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.

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