Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights
AbstractDespite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a framework for nonlinear contemporaneous aggregation with possibly stochastic or time-varying weights is developed and different predictors for an aggregate are compared theoretically as well as with simulations. Two examples based on European unemployment and inflation series are used to illustrate the virtue of the theoretical setup and the forecasting results.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): 231 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
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Forecasting; stochastic aggregation; autoregression; moving average; vector autoregressive process;
Other versions of this item:
- Helmut Luetkepohl, 2010. "Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/11, European University Institute.
- Helmut Luetkepohl, 2010. "Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights," CESifo Working Paper Series 3031, CESifo Group Munich.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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