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Crowding-out Hypothesis in a Vector Error Correction Framework: A Case Study of Pakistan

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  • Kalim Hyder

    (Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi.)

Abstract

Under the umbrella of the IMF stabilisation programmes, Pakistan has pursued a policy of fiscal consolidation since 1988. A look at the budget deficit from 1988 onwards reveals that the policy has only been marginally successful. Even this fragile accomplishment of the Fund-based programme has been achieved at a much greater cost: the reduction in budget deficit has only been materialised because of the curtailment of development expenditure component of total fiscal outlays [Social Policy and Development Centre (2001)]. Economic theory suggests that development expenditure component of fiscal outlays, which also equals net investment by the public sector,1 has a significant relationship with both the rate of private investment and economic growth. If public investment increases, fewer funds will be available for private investment. Competition will thereby drive the interest rates up leading to lower level of private investment. Neo-classicals believe that this process will only result in a redistribution of gross national between the public and the private sector and the rate of economic growth will remain intact. On the other hand, Keynesians argue that the multiplier effect of higher public spending will be larger as compared to the induced negative effect of reduced private investment on the rate of economic activity and, therefore, gross national product will increase.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 40 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 633-650

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:40:y:2001:i:4:p:633-650

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  1. Robert E. Looney, 1995. "Public Sector Deficits and Private Investment: A Test of the Crowding-out Hypothesis in Pakistan's Manufacturing Industry," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 277-297.
  2. Ahmad, Mushtaq, 1994. "The Effects of Government Budget Deficits on the Interest Rates: A Case Study of a Small Open Economy," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 47(1), pages 1-6.
  3. David Alan Aschauer, 1988. "Government spending and the "falling rate of profit."," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 11-17.
  4. Mehdi S. Monadjemi, 1996. "Public Expenditure And Private Investment: A Study of Three OECD Countries," Studies in Economics 9601, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
  6. Khalifa Ghali, 1998. "Public investment and private capital formation in a vector error-correction model of growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 837-844.
  7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  8. Khan, Ashfaque Hasan & Hasan, Lubna & Malik, Afia, 1992. "Dependency Ratio, Foreign Capital Inflows and the Rate of Savings in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 7348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Khan, Ashfaque H. & Iqbal, Zafar, 1991. "Fiscal Deficit and Private Sector Activities in Pakistan," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 44(2-3), pages 182-190.
  10. A. R. Kemal, 1991. "Options for Financing the Budgetary Deficit, Money Supply, and Growth of Banking Sector," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 769-784.
  11. Nadeem U. Haque & Peter J. Montiel, 1993. "Fiscal Adjustment in Pakistan: Some Simulation Results," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 471-480, June.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  13. Nadeem A. Burney & Attiya Yasmeen, 1989. "Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 971-980.
  14. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  16. Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-12, August.
  17. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
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Cited by:
  1. Kalim Hyder & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 2004. "Why Private Investment In Pakistan Has Collapsed And How It Can Be Restored," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 107-125, Jan-June.

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