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Oscar Jorda

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," NBER Working Papers 20771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    2. Laxisme monétaire, bulles immobilières et instabilité financière
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-12-29 16:54:00
    3. Ladrillos y libros: ¿cuánto daño nos ha hecho el boom de la construcción?
      by Libertad González in Nada Es Gratis on 2015-04-24 11:00:59
  2. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    2. Le grand emprunt hypothécaire
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-09-24 04:21:00
  3. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2015. "Leveraged Bubbles," 2015 Meeting Papers 910, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
      by Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-11-14 19:24:34
    2. House Prices at Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-04-29 12:35:08
    3. Financial Crisis: The Endgame
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-09-03 12:25:40
  4. Òscar Jordà & Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," NBER Working Papers 23287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Challenging the Role of Capital Adequacy using Historical Data
      by Banking Blogger in NEP-HIS blog on 2017-06-13 19:08:03
  5. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
      by Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-11-14 19:24:34
    2. House Prices at Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-04-29 12:35:08
    3. Financial Crisis: The Endgame
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-09-03 12:25:40
  6. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," NBER Working Papers 24112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Fiscal Sustainability: A Primer
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-07-02 12:02:05
    2. Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-12-02 13:10:33
    3. Fiscal Space Has Limits, Too
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2020-05-31 15:13:38
  7. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 19414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. How to muddy the waters on impact of austerity
      by Mainly Macro in Mainly Macro on 2014-08-01 18:06:00
    2. Austerity in the UK: past, present and future
      by Joel Suss in British Politics and Policy at LSE on 2015-03-11 13:18:49
  8. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Fiscal Sustainability: A Primer
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-07-02 12:02:05
    2. Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-12-02 13:10:33
    3. Fiscal Space Has Limits, Too
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2020-05-31 15:13:38
  9. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," CESifo Working Paper Series 5147, CESifo.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    2. Laxisme monétaire, bulles immobilières et instabilité financière
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-12-29 16:54:00
    3. Ladrillos y libros: ¿cuánto daño nos ha hecho el boom de la construcción?
      by Libertad González in Nada Es Gratis on 2015-04-24 11:00:59
  10. Early Elias & Helen Irvin & Òscar Jordà, 2014. "Monetary policy when the spyglass is smudged," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A Monetary Policy Framework for the Next Recession
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2017-12-11 19:02:11
  11. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2014. "The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 10161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Assessing Housing Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-10-15 11:28:50
    2. Comprendiendo la severidad de las crisis financieras españolas
      by admin in Nada Es Gratis on 2018-05-31 05:01:24
    3. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    4. Laxisme monétaire, bulles immobilières et instabilité financière
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-12-29 16:54:00
  12. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Crisis in 1000 words—or less
      by Steve Keen in Steve Keen's Debtwatch on 2012-07-22 11:41:41
    2. Jubilee!
      by steve from virginia in Economic Undertow on 2012-08-02 04:16:47
  13. Òscar Jordà & Noah Kouchekinia & Colton Merrill & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2020. "The Fog of Numbers," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2020(20), pages 1-5, July.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Revisions to employment data during 2020 and 2021 : Reassessing labor market conditions after the 2020 recession
      by ? in FRED blog on 2022-01-24 14:00:00
  14. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 20501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Assessing Housing Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-10-15 11:28:50
    2. Comprendiendo la severidad de las crisis financieras españolas
      by admin in Nada Es Gratis on 2018-05-31 05:01:24
    3. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    4. Laxisme monétaire, bulles immobilières et instabilité financière
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-12-29 16:54:00
  15. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2015. "Leveraged Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 10781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
      by Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-11-14 19:24:34
    2. House Prices at Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-04-29 12:35:08
    3. Financial Crisis: The Endgame
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-09-03 12:25:40
  16. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Working Paper Series 2013-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. How to muddy the waters on impact of austerity
      by Mainly Macro in Mainly Macro on 2014-08-01 18:06:00
    2. Austerity in the UK: past, present and future
      by Joel Suss in British Politics and Policy at LSE on 2015-03-11 13:18:49
  17. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Working Paper Series 2014-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Les marchés du travail lors de la Grande Récession
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-05-18 00:55:00
  18. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Fiscal Policy during high unemployment periods: still a bad idea?
      by sebastianfleitas in NEP-HIS blog on 2013-03-04 19:37:19
    2. Comment s'est comportée la courbe de Beveridge en zone euro ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-02-20 19:29:55
  19. Yanping Chong & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 15868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. BDSM: il meraviglioso mondo di...
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2013-02-06 04:44:00
  20. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The ABCT making its presence in the maintream literature
      by Nicolas Cachanosky in Punto de Vista Economico on 2013-09-02 08:10:35
    2. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    3. Et si le cycle financier était à l'origine des déséquilibres courants de la zone euro ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-11-06 02:19:00
  21. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2019. "The Total Risk Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 25653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Ciclos Inmobiliarios y Desigualdad de la Riqueza
      by admin in Nada Es Gratis on 2019-12-16 14:00:30
  22. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 19506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Credit, Crises, and Consequences
      by noreply@blogger.com (Carola Binder) in Quantitative Ease on 2013-10-14 05:02:00
    2. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," Working Paper Series 2020-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Path forecast evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 635-662.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Path forecast evaluation (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions (AEJ:MA 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 19414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy (NBER 2013) in ReplicationWiki ()
  4. Moritz Schularick & Bjorn Richter & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 843, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Bank Capital Redux:Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis (REStud forthcoming) in ReplicationWiki ()
  5. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target (JPE 2002) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Arindrajit Dube & Daniele Girardi & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences Event Studies," Working Paper Series 2023-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Todd Morris & Benoit Dostie, 2023. "Graying and staying on the job: The welfare implications of employment protection for older workers," CIRANO Working Papers 2023s-20, CIRANO.
    2. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Jingyi Tian & Jun Nagayasu, 2023. "Financial Systemic Risk behind Artificial Intelligence:Evidence from China," TUPD Discussion Papers 44, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    4. Cheick Camara, 2023. "Gender Budgeting and Health Spending Efficiency in Indian States: A Staggered Difference-in-Differences Analysis," CERDI Working papers hal-04294262, HAL.
    5. João Pedro Vieira & Ricardo Dahis & Juliano Assunção, 2023. "The Role of Sanctions and Spillovers in Forest Conservation," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-16, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    6. Natalia Emanuel & Emma Harrington, 2023. "Working Remotely? Selection, Treatment, and the Market for Remote Work," Staff Reports 1061, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Alexander Rodnyansky & Yannick Timmer & Naoki Yago, 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," CESifo Working Paper Series 10575, CESifo.
    8. Rodnyansky, A. & Timmer, Y. & Yago, N., 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2357, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Mark Kattenberg & Bas Scheer & Jurre Thiel, 2023. "Causal forests with fixed effects for treatment effect heterogeneity in difference-in-differences," CPB Discussion Paper 452, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Amorim, Guilherme & Britto, Diogo & Fonseca, Alexandre & Sampaio, Breno, 2024. "Job Loss, Unemployment Insurance, and Health: Evidence from Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers 16790, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

  2. Maximilian Grimm & Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability," Working Paper Series 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), April.
    2. Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.
    3. Gächter, Martin & Hasler, Elias & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Kicking the can down the road: A historical growth-at-risk perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    4. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    6. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommer 2023: Konjunktur tastet sich aus der Krise [German Economy in Summer 2023: Crawling out of the crisis]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Kaufmann, Christoph & Leyva, Jaime & Storz, Manuela, 2024. "Insurance corporations’ balance sheets, financial stability and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2892, European Central Bank.
    8. Alberto Botta & Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2023. "Same Old Song: On The Macroeconomic And Distributional Effects Of Leaving A Low Interest Rate Environment," Working Papers 481, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    9. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of ECB’s Asset Purchases. How Excess Reserves Shape Bank Lending," Working Papers of BETA 2023-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

  3. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 2023-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2905, European Central Bank.
    3. Schroeder, Christofer & Stracca, Livio, 2023. "Pollution havens? Carbon taxes, globalization, and the geography of emissions," Working Paper Series 2862, European Central Bank.
    4. Alexander Rodnyansky & Yannick Timmer & Naoki Yago, 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," CESifo Working Paper Series 10575, CESifo.

  4. Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2022. "Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic," Working Paper Series 2022-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Cardani, Roberta & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Rafael Wildauer & Karsten Kohler & Adam Aboobaker & Alexander Guschanski, 2023. "Energy Price Shocks, Conflict Inflation, and Income Distribution in a Three-sector Model," Working Papers PKWP2309, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Galina Hale & John Leer & Fernanda Nechio, 2022. "Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms," Working Paper Series 2023-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  5. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Zombies at large? Corporate debt overhang and the macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 042, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Goodhart, Charles A.E. & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P. & Wang, Xuan, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118164, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Fattouh, Bassam & Pisicoli, Beniamino & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 2024. "Debt and financial fragility: Italian non-financial companies after the pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Horvath, Balint L. & Huizinga, Harry, 2023. "Loan Recoveries and the Financing of Zombie Firms over the Business Cycle," Discussion Paper 2023-017, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Alexander Hodbod & Cars Hommes & Stefanie J. Huber & Isabelle Salle, 2021. "The COVID-19 Consumption Game-Changer: Evidence from a Large-Scale Multi-Country Survey," Staff Working Papers 21-57, Bank of Canada.
    5. HONDA Tomohito & ONO Arito & UESUGI Iichiro & YASUDA Yukihiro, 2023. "Anatomy of Out-of-court Debt Workouts for SMEs," Discussion papers 23088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Historical Effects of Banking Distress on Economic Activity," Current Policy Perspectives 96216, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Kin Wai Cheung & Masami Imai, 2023. "Zombie Lending, Labor Hoarding, and Local Industry Growth," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2023-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    8. Christian Keuschnigg & Michael Kogler & Johannes Matt, 2022. "Banks, Credit Reallocation, and Creative Destruction," CESifo Working Paper Series 10093, CESifo.
    9. Nirupama Kulkarni & S.K. Ritadhi & Sayan Mukherjee, 2021. "Unearthing Zombies," Working Papers 59, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    10. Angela De Martiis & Franziska J. Peter, 2023. "When companies don't die: Analyzing zombie firms in a low interest rate environment," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 73(01), pages 67-86, December.
    11. Assaf Razin, 2021. "Globalization and Global Crises: Rest of the World vs. Israel," NBER Working Papers 28339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Peter Karlström, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy, Credit Booms, and Banks' Systemic Risk," CEMLA Working Paper Series 03/2023, CEMLA.
    13. Davis, Leila & de Souza, Joao & Kim, YK. & Rella, Giacomo, 2023. "What are firms borrowing for? The role of financial assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. João Tovar Jalles & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2022. "Economic Growth After Debt Surges," IMF Working Papers 2022/159, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Assaf Razin, 2021. "Globalization And Global Crises: Israel And The Rest Of The World," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 19(1), pages 103-134.
    16. Albuquerque, Bruno, 2021. "Corporate debt booms, financial constraints and the investment nexus," Bank of England working papers 935, Bank of England.
    17. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Bouabdallah, Othman & Domingues Semeano, João & Dorrucci, Ettore & Freier, Maximilian & Jacquinot, Pascal & Modery, Wolfgang & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta & Valenta, Vilém & Zorell, , 2022. "The economic impact of Next Generation EU: a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 291, European Central Bank.
    18. Yoshibumi Makabe & Yoshihiko Norimasa, 2022. "The Term Structure of Inflation at Risk: A Panel Quantile Regression Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-4, Bank of Japan.

  6. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Singh, Sanjay, 2020. "Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics," CEPR Discussion Papers 14543, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Donadelli, Michael & Ferranna, Licia & Gufler, Ivan & Paradiso, Antonio, 2021. "Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 214-224.
    2. Brzezinski, Adam & Deiana, Guido & Kecht, Valentin & Van Dijcke, David, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic: Government vs. Community Action Across the United States," INET Oxford Working Papers 2020-06, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Qichun He, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 15(4), pages 626-641, December.
    5. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of Covid-19: a mid-term review," BIS Working Papers 959, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2021. "Benefits of macroprudential policy in low interest rate environments," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 90.
    7. Brodeur, Abel & Clark, Andrew E. & Fleche, Sarah & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2020. "COVID-19, Lockdowns and Well-Being: Evidence from Google Trends," GLO Discussion Paper Series 552, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Cassola, Nuno & De Grauwe, Paul & Morana, Claudio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2022. "The risks of exiting too early the policy responses to the COVID-19 recession," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113327, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Brodeur, Abel & Gray, David & Islam, Anik & Bhuiyan, Suraiya Jabeen, 2020. "A Literature Review of the Economics of COVID-19," GLO Discussion Paper Series 601, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
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    135. Beirne, John Beirne & Renzhi, Nuobu & Sugandi, Eric Alexander & Volz, Ulrich, 2020. "Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic," ADBI Working Papers 1158, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    136. Asli Demirgüç‐Kunt & Michael Lokshin & Iván Torre, 2021. "The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 551-573, October.
    137. Saki Bigio & Mengbo Zhang & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Transfers vs Credit Policy: Macroeconomic Policy Trade-offs during Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 27118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    138. Kiyota, Kozo, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    139. Rasa Kanapickiene & Deimante Teresiene & Daiva Budriene & Greta Keliuotytė-Staniulėnienė & Jekaterina Kartasova, 2020. "The Impact Of Covid-19 On European Financial Markets And Economic Sentiment," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 14(1), pages 144-163.
    140. Dieppe,Alistair Matthew & Kilic Celik,Sinem & Okou,Cedric Iltis Finafa, 2020. "Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9411, The World Bank.
    141. Schell, Daniel & Wang, Mei & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2020. "This time is indeed different: A study on global market reactions to public health crisis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    142. Tripti Tiwari & Mohit Tiwari, 2020. "Current Economic Slowdown and Opportunities for Cost Effective Services and Products using Technological Inventions: An Empirical Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 121-129.
    143. Michael König & Adalbert Winkler, 2021. "COVID-19: Lockdowns, Fatality Rates and GDP Growth," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(1), pages 32-39, January.
    144. Pierre L Siklos, 2021. "Did the great influenza of 1918-1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?," CAMA Working Papers 2021-95, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    145. Wang, Xun & Yu, Jingwen, 2023. "COVID-19 pandemic and corporate liquidity: The role of SOEs’ trade credit response," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    146. Alain N. Kabundi & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Jiaxiong Yao, 2022. "How Persistent are Climate-Related Price Shocks? Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2022/207, International Monetary Fund.
    147. Pinkovetskaia Iuliia, 2022. "Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on household income: results of a survey of the economically active population," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(1), pages 43-57, March.
    148. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris, 2021. "Do Disease Epidemics Stimulate or Repress Entrepreneurial Activity?," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 464-486, October.
    149. Xiao Ke & Cheng Hsiao, 2022. "Economic impact of the most drastic lockdown during COVID‐19 pandemic—The experience of Hubei, China," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 187-209, January.
    150. Ablam Estel Apeti & Jean-Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "Did Fiscal Space Foster Covid-19's Fiscal Stimuli ?," Post-Print hal-03351634, HAL.
    151. Fernandes, Daniel, 2022. "Business Cycle Accounting for the COVID-19 Recession," MPRA Paper 111577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    152. Goel, Rajeev K. & Nelson, Michael A. & Goel, Viraat Y., 2021. "COVID-19 vaccine rollout—scale and speed carry different implications for corruption," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 503-520.
    153. Aymeric Ortmans & Fabien Tripier, 2020. "COVID-Induced Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area: When Did the ECB Stop the Contagion?," Working Papers 2020-11, CEPII research center.
    154. Ricardo Hausmann & Ulrich Schetter, 2020. "Horrible Trade-offs in a Pandemic: Lockdowns, Transfers, Fiscal Space, and Compliance," CID Working Papers 382, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    155. Adam Noga & Andrzej K. Koźmiński & Katarzyna Piotrowska & Krzysztof Zagórski, 2022. "Czynniki emocjonalne ograniczające inwestycje w europejskich krajach OECD," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 2, pages 172-189.
    156. Zhang, Yulian & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Do news sentiment and the economic uncertainty caused by public health events impact macroeconomic indicators? Evidence from a TVP-VAR decomposition approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 145-162.
    157. Pompeo Della Posta & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2022. "COVID-19, Economic Policies and Public Debt Sustainability in Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.
    158. Zahra, Shaker A., 2021. "International entrepreneurship in the post Covid world," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(1).
    159. Zhixian Lin & Christopher M. Meissner, 2020. "Health vs. Wealth? Public Health Policies and the Economy During Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 27099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    160. Brancati, Emanuele & Brancati, Raffaele, 2020. "Heterogeneous Shocks in the Covid-19 Pandemic: Panel Evidence from Italian Firms," GLO Discussion Paper Series 649, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    161. Nguyen Doan & Canh Phuc Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of a Pandemic: What Happened after SARS in 2003?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8687, CESifo.
    162. Ali Gungoraydinoglu & Ilke Öztekin & Özde Öztekin, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 and Its Policy Responses on Local Economy and Health Conditions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-27, May.
    163. Demiessie, Habtamu, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic Uncertainty Shock Impact on Macroeconomic Stability in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 102625, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Aug 2020.
    164. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "The Behavior of Real Interest Rates: New Evidence from a ``Suprasecular" Perspective," Working Papers 202093, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    165. Costa Junior, Celso J. & Garcia-Cintado, Alejandro C. & Junior, Karlo Marques, 2021. "Macroeconomic policies and the pandemic-driven recession," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-465.
    166. AITOUTOUHEN, latifa, 2021. "Study of the Socio-Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis in Morocco," MPRA Paper 111114, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Dec 2021.
    167. Karen García-Rojas & Paula Herrera-Idárraga & Leonardo Fabio Morales & Natalia Ramírez-Bustamante & Ana María Tribín-Uribe, 2020. "(She)cession: The Colombian female staircase fall," Borradores de Economia 1140, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    168. Tiberiu Cristian Avramescu, 2020. "Assessments Onthe Effects Of The Coronavirus Pandemic On The Romanian Economy," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 57-64, June.
    169. Naudé, Wim, 2020. "Industrialization under Medieval Conditions? Global Development after COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13829, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    170. Wang, Lipeng & Zhang, Mengyu & Verousis, Thanos, 2021. "The road to economic recovery: Pandemics and innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    171. Thomas Habanabakize & Zandri Dickason-Koekemoer, 2022. "The Responsiveness of Liquid Fuel Price towards COVID-19 and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 173-179, November.

  7. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Singh, Sanjay, 2020. "The long-run effects of monetary policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
    2. Bhattarai, Saroj & Schwartzman, Felipe & Yang, Choongryul, 2021. "Local scars of the US housing crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 40-57.
    3. Noelia Araújo-Vila & Jose A. Fraiz-Brea & Alexandra Matos Pereira, 2021. "Societal Changes Due to “COVID-19”. An Analysis of the Tourism Sector of Galicia, Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-22, July.
    4. Georgii Riabov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Policy with stochastic hysteresis," Papers 2104.10225, arXiv.org.
    5. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2021. "Macroeconomic Changes with Declining Trend Inflation: Complementarity with the Superstar Firm Hypothesis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    6. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2020. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity," Working Paper 2020/7, Norges Bank.
    7. Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2020. "The scars of supply shocks: Implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 1214, Barcelona School of Economics.
    8. Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, 2021. "Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy," Staff Report 622, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Tumisang Loate & Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Sailing into the Wind evaluating the near future of Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 11006, South African Reserve Bank.
    10. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I measure the Output gap?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2020. "Forward Guidance Matters: Disentangling Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Papers 912, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2021. "Real exchange rate and international spillover effects of US technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Lucidi, Francesco Simone & Semmler, Willi, 2023. "Long-run scarring effects of meltdowns in a small-scale nonlinear quadratic model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Albert Queraltó, 2022. "Monetary Policy in a Model of Growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 1340, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Dieppe,Alistair Matthew & Francis,Neville Ricardo & Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene, 2021. "Technology and Demand Drivers of Productivity Dynamics in Developed and Emerging Market Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9525, The World Bank.
    16. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2020. "Monetary policy and the top one percent: Evidence from a century of modern economic history," AMSE Working Papers 2047, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    18. Rémi Odry & Roman Mestre, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," Working Papers hal-04159759, HAL.
    19. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Emmanuelle Faure & Paul Hubert, 2020. "Setting New Priorities for the ECB’s Mandate," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03389186, HAL.
    20. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    21. James Cloyne & Patrick Hürtgen & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Global Monetary and Financial Spillovers: Evidence from a New Measure of Bundesbank Policy Shocks," NBER Working Papers 30485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Pål Ulvedal, 2021. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Tervala, Juha, 2021. "Hysteresis and the welfare costs of recessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-144.
    24. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 26962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Valerie Cerra & Antonio Fatás & Sweta C. Saxena, 2023. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 181-225, March.
    26. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging," Trinity Economics Papers tep0721, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    27. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2023. "Learning by Necessity: Government Demand, Capacity Constraints, and Productivity Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 17803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Schmöller, Michaela & McClung, Nigel, 2024. "Price stability and debt sustainability under endogenous trend growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2024, Bank of Finland.
    29. Rieder, Kilian, 2022. "Monetary policy decision-making by committee: Why, when and how it can work," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    30. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    31. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2022. "The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective," Working Paper Series 2022-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    32. Tervala, Juha & Watson, Timothy, 2022. "Hysteresis and fiscal stimulus in a recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    33. de Groot, Oliver & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Nikalexi, Katerina, 2020. "Monetary policy and regional inequality," Working Paper Series 2385, European Central Bank.
    34. Jung, Kuk Mo & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2023. "A long-run approach to money, unemployment, and equity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    35. Camilo Granados & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2023. "Estimating the Output Gap After COVID: How to Address Unprecedented Macroeconomic Variations," Borradores de Economia 1249, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    36. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
    37. Dávila-Ospina, Andrés O., 2023. "Hysteresis From Monetary Policy Mistakes: How Bad Could It Be?," Documentos CEDE 21003, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    38. Tim Willems, 2020. "What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large Tightenings," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 41-58, October.
    39. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2020. "21st Century Macro," NBER Working Papers 26791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    41. Laura Gómez-Acevedo & Marc Hofstetter, 2020. "Disinflations and income distribution," Documentos CEDE 18481, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    42. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar, 2019. "Riders on the Storm," CEPR Discussion Papers 13978, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Sascha Buetzer, 2022. "Advancing the Monetary Policy Toolkit through Outright Transfers," IMF Working Papers 2022/087, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Marques, André M. & Carvalho, André R., 2022. "Testing the neo-fisherian hypothesis in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 407-419.
    45. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    46. Puonti, Päivi, 2022. "Public Debt and Economic Growth," ETLA Reports 127, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    47. Rosaria Rita Canale & G. Liotti, 2022. "Target2 imbalances and poverty in the eurozone," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1395-1417, November.
    48. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2021. "Endogenous growth, skill obsolescence and fiscal multipliers," Kiel Working Papers 2184, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    49. Beqiraj, Elton & Cao, Qingqing & Minetti, Raoul & Tarquini, Giulio, 2023. "Persistent Slumps: Innovation and the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2023-3, Michigan State University, Department of Economics.
    50. Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    51. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    52. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Pointner, Wolfgang & van den End, Jan Willem, 2022. "The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: a critical survey," Working Paper Series 2744, European Central Bank.
    53. Jang, Bosung & So, Inhwan & Tong, Eric, 2023. "US structural drivers of international portfolio returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    54. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2021. "Holding the Economy by the Tail: Analysis of Short- and Long-run Macroeconomic Risks," Working Papers 2021/3, Czech National Bank.
    55. Váry, Miklós, 2021. "The long-run real effects of monetary shocks: Lessons from a hybrid post-Keynesian-DSGE-agent-based menu cost model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

  8. Taylor, Alan M. & Cloyne, James & Jordà , Òscar, 2020. "Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 14544, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "The Age for Austerity? Population Age Structure and Fiscal Multipliers," Trinity Economics Papers tep1621, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    4. Mishel Ghassibe & Francesco Zanetti, 2021. "State Dependence of Fiscal Multipliers: The Source of Fluctuations Matters," Economics Series Working Papers 930, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Green Recovery Programmes. Conceptual Framing and a Review of the Empirical Literature," WIFO Working Papers 646, WIFO.
    6. Ortmans, Aymeric & Tripier, Fabien, 2021. "COVID-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: When did the ECB stop the spread?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Mario Alloza & Jesús Gonzalo & Carlos Sanz, 2019. "Dynamic effects of persistent shocks," Working Papers 1944, Banco de España.
    8. Kopecky, Joseph, 2022. "The age for austerity? Population age structure and fiscal consolidation multipliers," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

  9. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," CEPR Discussion Papers 14559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Fève & Pablo Garcia Sanchez & Alban Moura & Olivier Pierrard, 2019. "Costly Default And Asymmetric Real Business Cycles," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2019018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Zombies at large? Corporate debt overhang and the macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 042, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    3. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    4. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Richter, Björn & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The shifts and the shocks: bank risk, leverage, and the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2672, European Central Bank.
    5. Rafael Cezar & Eric Monnet, 2021. "Capital Controls and Foreign Reserves against External Shocks: Combined or Alone?," Working papers 849, Banque de France.
    6. Basco, Sergi & Domènech, Jordi & Rosés, Joan R., 2021. "The redistributive effects of pandemics: Evidence on the Spanish flu," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Petrella, Ivan & Iseringhausen, Martin & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2022. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 17162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Toan Phan & Felipe Schwartzman, 2023. "Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation," Working Paper 23-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    9. Iqbal, Javed & Mahmood, Fatima & Nosheen, Misbah & Wohar, Mark, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth of India: An application of Hodrick–Prescott filter technique," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 809-823.
    10. Yao Chen & Nuno Palma & Felix Ward, 2022. "Goldilocks: American precious metals and the Rise of the West," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-063/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 Feb 2023.
    11. James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2021. "Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation," Working Papers 21-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 16 Aug 2022.
    12. Patrick Fève & Pablo Garcia Sanchez & Alban Moura & Olivier Pierrard, 2021. "Costly default and skewed business cycle," Post-Print hal-03346173, HAL.
    13. Alogoskoufis, George & Malliaris, A.G. & Stengos, Thanasis, 2023. "The scope and methodology of economic and financial asymmetries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    14. Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Corporate indebtedness and macroeconomic stabilisation from a long-term perspective," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 024, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

  10. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar, 2019. "Riders on the Storm," CEPR Discussion Papers 13978, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2021. "Two challenges from globalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Schoenle, Raphael & Dietrich, Alexander & Müller, Gernot, 2022. "The Expectations Channel of Climate Change: Implications for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Alpanda, Sami & Granziera, Eleonora & Zubairy, Sarah, 2019. "State dependence of monetary policy across business, credit and interest rate cycles," Working Paper 2019/21, Norges Bank.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2021. "Reprint: Two challenges from globalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    6. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2021. "Supply of Sovereign Safe Assets and Global Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1315, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Harrison, Richard & Sajedi, Rana, 2022. "Decomposing the drivers of Global R," Bank of England working papers 990, Bank of England.

  11. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz, 2019. "The Total Risk Premium Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 13595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Lars Hultkrantz, 2021. "Discounting in economic evaluation of healthcare interventions: what about the risk term?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(3), pages 357-363, April.
    2. NguyenHuu, Tam, 2022. "The impacts of rare disasters on asset returns and risk premiums in advanced economies (1870–2015)," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Geoffrey Meen & Alexander Mihailov & Yehui Wang, 2022. "On the long-run solution to aggregate housing systems," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(1), pages 178-196, January.
    4. Łukowski, Michał & Gemra, Kamil & Maruszewski, Janusz & Śliwiński, Paweł & Zygmanowski, Piotr, 2020. "Equity premium puzzle — Evidence from Poland," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    5. Jaccard, Ivan, 2021. "Leveraged property cycles," Working Paper Series 2539, European Central Bank.

  12. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2018. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015," CESifo Working Paper Series 6899, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2022. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates: A New Monetarist DSGE Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 134-167, July.
    2. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," Working Paper Series WP19-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Dennis C. Hutschenreiter & Tommaso Santini & Eugenia Vella, 2022. "Automation and sectoral reallocation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 335-362, May.
    4. Grossmann, Volker & Larin, Benjamin & Löfflad, Hans Torben & Steger, Thomas, 2021. "Distributional consequences of surging housing rents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Jérôme Creel & Mehdi El Herradi, 2020. "Income inequality and monetary policy in the Euro Area," Sciences Po publications 20/2020, Sciences Po.
    6. Gabriele Fiorentini & Alessandro Galesi & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Enrique Sentana, 2018. "The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate," Working Paper series 18-29, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on an emerging market economy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 803-824, April.
    2. Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Anagnostopoulos, Alexios & Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem & Faraglia, Elisa, 2022. "Cross-Country Stock Market Comovement: A Macro Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 16021, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Zhang, Mi & Sensoy, Ahmet & Cheng, Feiyang & Zhao, Xuankai, 2022. "Three channels of monetary policy international transmission: Identifying spillover effects from the US to China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
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    5. Linda S. Goldberg, 2022. "Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits," Speech 95155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Schularick, Moritz & ter Steege, Lucas & Ward, Felix, 2020. "Leaning against the wind and crisis risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Carrera Jorge & Montes Rojas Gabriel & Solla Mariquena & Toledo Fernando, 2022. "Global Financial Cycle, Commodity Terms of Trade and Financial Spreads in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4613, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    8. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2021. "A Tale of Two Global Monetary Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rafael Cezar & Eric Monnet, 2021. "Capital Controls and Foreign Reserves against External Shocks: Combined or Alone?," Working papers 849, Banque de France.
    10. J. Scott Davis & Eric van Wincoop, 2022. "A Theory of Gross and Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle," NBER Working Papers 30738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    13. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy R., 2023. "Risk, monetary policy and asset prices in a global world," Working Paper Series 2879, European Central Bank.
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    18. Bora Durdu & Alex Martin & Ilknur Zer, 2019. "The Role of U.S. Monetary Policy in Global Banking Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-039, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Federico Esposito & Marcelo Bianconi & Marco Sammon, 2020. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0834, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    20. Danielsson, Jon & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2022. "The impact of risk cycles on business cycles: a historical view," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117384, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. J. Scott Davis & Eric Van Wincoop, 2023. "A Theory of Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle," Globalization Institute Working Papers 420, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    22. Bazot, Guillaume & Monnet, Eric & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the gobal financial cycle: Central banks and the sterilization of capital flows in the first era of globalization," IBF Paper Series 03-19, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    23. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    24. J. Scott Davis & Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2020. "Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: The Role of World Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention," Globalization Institute Working Papers 405, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 10 Sep 2021.
    25. Rob Luginbuhl, 2020. "Estimation of the Financial Cycle with a Rank-Reduced Multivariate State-Space Model," CPB Discussion Paper 409, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    26. Cobham, David & Song, Mengdi, 2021. "Transitions between monetary policy frameworks and their effects on economic performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 311-329.
    27. Rey, Hélène & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Sauzet, Maxime, 2019. "The International Monetary and Financial System," CEPR Discussion Papers 13714, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Wang, Xichen & Liu, Qingya, 2023. "Can the global financial cycle explain the episodes of exuberance in international housing markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    29. Monnet, Eric & Puy, Damien, 2021. "One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 15958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Probst, Julius, 2019. "Global real interest rate dynamics from the late 19th century to today," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 522-547.
    31. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, 2019. "Global Banking, Financial Spillovers, and Macroprudential Policy Coordination," BIS Working Papers 764, Bank for International Settlements.
    32. Li, Xiang & Su, Dan, 2022. "Surges and instability: The maturity shortening channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    33. Alibey Kudar, 2021. "Interest rate as the last link of chain during crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3189-3203, April.
    34. Flores Zendejas, Juan & Gaillard, Norbert, 2021. "The International Lender of Last Resort Between Scylla and Charybdis," Working Papers unige:152743, University of Geneva, Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History.
    35. Zekeriya Yildirim & Mehmet Ivrendi, 2021. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing, spreads, and international financial markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, December.
    36. Stefan Avdjiev & Stephan Binder & Ricardo Sousa, 2018. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," Working Papers 28, European Stability Mechanism.
    37. Hiro Ito & Phuong Tran, 2023. "Emerging Market Economies’ Challenge: Managing the Yield Curve in a Financially Globalized World," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 171-194, February.
    38. Amat Adarov, 2018. "Financial Cycles Around the World," wiiw Working Papers 145, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    39. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    41. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    42. C. Bora Durdu & Alex Martin & Ilknur Zer, 2020. "The Role of US Monetary Policy in Banking Crises Across the World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 66-107, March.
    43. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin & Wanling Qiu, 2019. "Topologically Mapping the Macroeconomy," Papers 1911.10476, arXiv.org.
    44. Xin Tian & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2022. "Alternative Measures for the Global Financial Cycle: Do They Make a Difference?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9730, CESifo.
    45. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Bouvatier, Vincent & Rehault, Pierre-Nicolas, 2021. "Measuring credit procyclicality: a new database," CEPR Discussion Papers 16519, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "Financial spillover and global risk in a multi-region model of the world economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 185-218.
    47. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Tsvetelina Nenova & Helene Rey, 2020. "Global Footprints of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2004, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    48. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    49. Adarov, Amat, 2021. "Dynamic interactions between financial cycles, business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances: A panel VAR analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 434-451.
    50. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "On the international co-movement of natural interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    51. Uwe Vollmer, 2022. "Monetary policy or macroprudential policies: What can tame the cycles?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1510-1538, December.
    52. Kollar, Miroslav & Schmieder, Christian, 2019. "Macro-based asset allocation: An empirical analysis," EIB Working Papers 2019/11, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    53. Michael Curran & Adnan Velic, 2018. "The CAPM, National Stock Market Betas, and Macroeconomic Covariates: A Global Analysis," Trinity Economics Papers tep0618, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    54. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Credit risk interdependence in global financial markets: Evidence from three regions using multiple and partial wavelet approaches," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    55. Monnet, Eric & bazot, guillaume & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the Global Financial Cycle: Central Banks and the Sterilization of Capital Flows in the First Era of Globalization (1891," CEPR Discussion Papers 13895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    56. Goczek, Łukasz & Witkowski, Bartosz, 2023. "Spillover effects of the unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 82-104.
    57. Arif Widodo, 2020. "Measuring Cyclical Behavior of Islamic and Conventional Financing: Evidence from Indonesian Dual Banking System قياس سلوك التمويل الإسلامي والتمويل التقليدي: دليل من النظام المصرفي الإندونيسي المزدوج," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 33(2), pages 173-192, July.
    58. Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    59. Yu, Zhen & Liu, Wei & Yang, Fuyu, 2023. "A central bankers’ sentiment index of global financial cycle," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    60. John Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Ulrich Volz, 2023. "When the United States and the People’s Republic of China Sneeze: Monetary Policy Spillovers to Asian Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 519-540, July.

  14. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2017. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," CEPR Discussion Papers 11801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Alan M. & Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz, 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Carlo Altavilla & Luc Laeven & José-Luis Peydró, 2021. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Complementarities: Evidence from European Credit Registers," Working Papers 1246, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Gabriel Jiménez & Dmitry Kuvshinov & José-Luis Peydró & Bjoern Richter, 2022. "Monetary policy, inflation, and crises: New evidence from history and administrative data," Economics Working Papers 1854, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2023.
    4. Asger Lau Andersen & Niels Johannesen & Mia Jørgensen & José-Luis Peydró, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Inequality," CEBI working paper series 22-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    5. Rafael Cezar & Eric Monnet, 2021. "Capital Controls and Foreign Reserves against External Shocks: Combined or Alone?," Working papers 849, Banque de France.
    6. Tafuro, Andrea, 2023. "Labour market rigidity and expansionary austerity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy R., 2023. "Risk, monetary policy and asset prices in a global world," Working Paper Series 2879, European Central Bank.
    8. Sangyup Choi & Tim Willems & Seung Yong Yoo, 2022. "Revisiting the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Through an Industry-Level Differential Approach," IMF Working Papers 2022/017, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Sardar, Naafey & Sharma, Shahil, 2022. "Oil prices & stock returns: Modeling the asymmetric effects around the zero lower bound," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    10. Taylor, Alan M. & Cloyne, James & Jordà , Òscar, 2020. "Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 14544, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Gaetano Basso & Salvatore Lo Bello & Francesca Subioli, 2023. "Labor market dynamics and geographical reallocations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1430, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 30971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2020. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Working Paper Series 2020-04, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    14. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2020. "Do rising top incomes fuel credit expansion?," Post-Print hal-03002536, HAL.
    15. Buch, Claudia M. & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2022. "Banking deregulation, macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "The Costs of Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 24989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2021. "Monetary Policy, External Finance and Investment," Working Papers 92, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    18. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2019. "Monetary policy, corporate finance and investment," Working Papers 1911, Banco de España.
    19. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "House price synchronization across the US states: The role of structural oil shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    20. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2020. "Monetary policy and the top one percent: Evidence from a century of modern economic history," AMSE Working Papers 2047, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    21. Hites Ahir & Nicholas Bloom & Davide Furceri, 2022. "The world uncertainty index," POID Working Papers 031, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    22. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "Persistence of State-Level Uncertainty of the United States: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202208, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    23. Immaculate Machasio & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Remittance flows and US monetary policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(3), pages 545-561, August.
    24. Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, Hong, 2022. "Monetary policy surprises and investment of non-listed real sector firms in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 631-642.
    25. Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy," BIS Working Papers 740, Bank for International Settlements.
    26. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging," Trinity Economics Papers tep0721, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    27. Adam Brzezinski & Yao Chen & Nuno Palma & Felix Ward, 2019. "The Vagaries of the Sea: Evidence on the Real Effects of Money from Maritime Disasters in the Spanish Empire," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1906, Economics, The University of Manchester, revised May 2022.
    28. Levy, Antoine & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Werner, Alejandro, 2020. "The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Lockdown spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    30. Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin & van Eyden, Reneé & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "The impact of disaggregated oil shocks on state-level real housing returns of the United States: The role of oil dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    31. Yener Coskun & Nicholas Apergis & Esra Alp Coskun, 2022. "Nonlinear responses of consumption to wealth, income, and interest rate shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1293-1335, September.
    32. Esra Alp Coşkun & Hakan Kahyaoglu & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2023. "Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior? Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.
    33. Wang, Jian & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Is capital flow management effective? Evidence based on U.S. monetary policy shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    34. Ambrocio, Gene, 2023. "Demographic aging and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2023, Bank of Finland.
    35. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The effect of structural oil shocks on bank systemic risk in the GCC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    36. Tim Willems, 2018. "What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large, Unanticipated Tightenings," IMF Working Papers 2018/211, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2018. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," Working Paper Series 2018-5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    38. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    39. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    40. Ortmans, Aymeric & Tripier, Fabien, 2021. "COVID-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: When did the ECB stop the spread?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    41. Ahmed, Rashad, 2021. "Monetary policy spillovers under intermediate exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    42. Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2020. "Inflation Globally," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 8, pages 269-316, Central Bank of Chile.
    43. Ferrero, Andrea & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2022. "Leaning against the global financial cycle," Working Paper Series 2763, European Central Bank.
    44. Roben Kloosterman & Dennis Bonam & Koen van der Veer, 2022. "The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes," Working Papers 755, DNB.
    45. Apergis, Nicholas, 2021. "The role of housing market in the effectiveness of monetary policy over the Covid-19 era," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    46. Adra, Samer & Menassa, Elie, 2021. "Monetary policy and information production in the secondary market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    47. Guimaraes, Rodrigo & Pinter, Gabor & Wijnandts, Jean-Charles, 2023. "The liquidity state-dependence of monetary policy transmission," Bank of England working papers 1045, Bank of England.
    48. John Kandrac, 2021. "Can the Federal Reserve Effectively Target Main Street? Evidence from the 1970s Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    49. Martin Harding & Mathias Klein, 2022. "Monetary policy and household net worth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 125-151, April.
    50. Junli Cheng & Feng Lin, 2022. "The Dynamic Effects of Urban–Rural Income Inequality on Sustainable Economic Growth under Urbanization and Monetary Policy in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-23, June.
    51. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    52. Atems, Bebonchu & Sardar, Naafey, 2021. "Exploring asymmetries in the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on U.S. food and agricultural stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-14.
    53. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Renault, Théodore, 2022. "Risk sharing and monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2746, European Central Bank.
    54. Lucidi, Francesco Simone & Semmler, Willi, 2022. "Supervisory shocks to banks' credit standards and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    55. Bonsoo Koo & Seojeong Lee & Myung Hwan Seo, 2022. "What Impulse Response Do Instrumental Variables Identify?," Papers 2208.11828, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    56. Lee, Sukjoon, 2020. "Liquidity Premium, Credit Costs, and Optimal Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 104825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    57. Adra, Samer & Barbopoulos, Leonidas G., 2022. "Monetary shocks and the analyst coverage of the firm," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).

  15. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 11934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Zhang, Xin, 2023. "Private Bank Money vs Central Bank Money: A Historical Lesson for CBDC Introduction," Working Paper Series 424, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jul 2023.
    2. Alina K. Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike I. Steins, 2020. "Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016," Working Papers Series inetwp124, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    3. Andreas Haufler & Christoph Lülfesmann, 2022. "Voluntary Equity, Project Risk, and Capital Requirements," CESifo Working Paper Series 9505, CESifo.
    4. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2020. "Financial crises, macroprudential policy and the reliability of credit-to-GDP gaps," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 567, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Gabriel Jiménez & Dmitry Kuvshinov & José-Luis Peydró & Bjoern Richter, 2022. "Monetary policy, inflation, and crises: New evidence from history and administrative data," Economics Working Papers 1854, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2023.
    6. Moreira, Fernando, 2022. "Are we living in an illusion? A fresh look at the importance of bank capital in the quest for stability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2020. "Are bank capital requirements optimally set? Evidence from researchers' views," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2020, Bank of Finland.
    8. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Richter, Björn & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The shifts and the shocks: bank risk, leverage, and the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2672, European Central Bank.
    9. Dennis Fixler & Kim Zieschang, 2016. "Producing Liquidity," CEPA Working Papers Series WP022016, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    10. Miller, Steph & Barth, James, 2017. "Benefits and Costs of a Higher Bank Leverage Ratio," Working Papers 07847, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    11. Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo, 2023. "gingado: a machine learning library focused on economics and finance," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data science in central banking: applications and tools, volume 59, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Mike G. Tsionas, 2021. "A Bayesian panel stochastic volatility measure of financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5363-5384, October.
    13. Tang, John P. & Basco, Sergi, 2023. "Banks, credit supply, and the life cycle of firms: Evidence from late nineteenth century Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    14. André F. Silva, 2019. "Strategic Liquidity Mismatch and Financial Sector Stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-082, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Walther, Ansgar & Dávila, Eduardo, 2021. "Prudential Policy with Distorted Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 16197, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Rubio, Margarita & Yao, Fang, 2020. "Bank capital, financial stability and Basel regulation in a low interest-rate environment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 378-392.
    17. Bjorn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Paul Wachtel, 2018. "When to Lean Against the Wind," Working Papers 18-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    18. Ray Barrell & Dilruba Karim, 2020. "Bank capital: Excess credit and crisis incidence," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 121-137.
    19. Jacopo Carmassi & Sonja Dobkowitz & Johanne Evrard & Laura Parisi & André F Silva & Michael Wedow, 2020. "Completing the Banking Union with a European deposit insurance scheme: who is afraid of cross-subsidization?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 41-95.
    20. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Historical Effects of Banking Distress on Economic Activity," Current Policy Perspectives 96216, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    21. Simon Baumgartner & Alex Stomper & Thomas Schober & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2023. "Banking on Snow: Bank Capital, Risk, and Employment," Working Papers 2023-02, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    22. Raphaël Cardot-Martin & Fabien Labondance & Catherine Refait-Alexandre, 2021. "Capital ratios and banking crises in the European Union," Working Papers 2021-05, CRESE.
    23. Cutura, Jannic Alexander, 2021. "Debt holder monitoring and implicit guarantees: Did the BRRD improve market discipline?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    24. Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Gabriel Moinescu, 2023. "What is the optimal capital ratio implying a stable European banking system?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 324-343, December.
    25. Josef Schroth, 2021. "On the Distributional Effects of Bank Bailouts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 252-277, April.
    26. Lu'is A. V. Cat~ao & Jan Ditzen & Daniel Marcel te Kaat, 2023. "Global Factors in Non-core Bank Funding and Exchange Rate Flexibility," Papers 2310.11552, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    27. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2019. "Sovereigns going bust: Estimating the cost of default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-21.
    28. Martin Goetz & Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2020. "Do Bank Insiders Impede Equity Issuances?," NBER Working Papers 27442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Agovino, Massimiliano & Bartoletto, Silvana & Garofalo, Antonio, 2022. "A long-term analysis of efficiency in the Italian banking system from 1861 to 2010," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 227-241.
    30. Lubberink, Martien, 2020. "Max Headroom: Discretionary Capital Buffers and Bank Risk," MPRA Paper 100445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Financial policy in an exuberant world," Working Paper Series 2380, European Central Bank.
    32. Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Qianying Chen & Claudio Raddatz & Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche & Peichu Xie, 2019. "The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2019/207, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Dmitry Kuvshinov & Kaspar Zimmermann, 2018. "The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run," Working Papers 0136, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    34. Vo, Quynh-Anh, 2021. "Interactions of capital and liquidity requirements: a review of the literature," Bank of England working papers 916, Bank of England.
    35. Alfred Duncan & Charles Nolan, 2017. "Financial Frictions in Macroeconomic Models," Studies in Economics 1719, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    36. Demosthenes Tambakis, 2021. "A Markov chain measure of systemic banking crisis frequency," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(16), pages 1351-1356, September.
    37. Sergi Basco & John P. Tang, 2021. "Banks, Credit Supply, and the Life Cycle of Firms: Theory and Evidence from Late Nineteenth Century Japan," CEH Discussion Papers 02, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    38. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey & Rozhkova, Anna, 2020. "When are credit gap estimates reliable?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 221-238.
    39. Ibrocevic, Edin & Thiemann, Matthias, 2018. "All economic ideas are equal, but some are more equal than others: A differentiated perspective on macroprudential ideas and their implementation," SAFE Working Paper Series 214, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    40. Thore Kockerols & Erling Motzfeldt Kravik & Yasin Mimir, 2021. "Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises," Working Paper 2021/11, Norges Bank.
    41. Fernandez-Gallardo, Alvaro, 2023. "Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    42. Durand, Pierre & Le Quang, Gaëtan, 2022. "Banks to basics! Why banking regulation should focus on equity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 349-372.
    43. Paymon Khorrami & Fernando Mendo, 2021. "Rational Sentiments and Financial Frictions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 928, Central Bank of Chile.
    44. Martin Birn & Olivier de Bandt & Simon Firestone & Matías Gutiérrez Girault & Diana Hancock & Tord Krogh & Hitoshi Mio & Donald P. Morgan & Ajay Palvia & Valerio Scalone & Michael Straughan & Arzu Ulu, 2020. "The Costs and Benefits of Bank Capital—A Review of the Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-25, April.
    45. Claudia M. Buch & Benjamin Weigert, 2019. "Macroprudential policy in a currency union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(1), pages 23-33, February.
    46. Wix, Carlo, 2017. "The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity," SAFE Working Paper Series 189, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    47. Bacchetta, Philippe, 2017. "The Sovereign Money Initiative in Switzerland: An Economic Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 12349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    48. Fukuyama, Hirofumi & Matousek, Roman & Tzeremes, Nickolaos G., 2022. "Bank production with nonperforming loans: A minimum distance directional slack inefficiency approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    49. Alina K. Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike I. Steins, 2020. "The Distribution of Household Debt in the United States, 1950-2019," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 015, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    50. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Josef Bajzik & Zuzana Gric, 2021. "A Tale of Different Capital Ratios: How to Correctly Assess the Impact of Capital Regulation on Lending," Working Papers 2021/8, Czech National Bank.
    51. Boďa, Martin & Zimková, Emília, 2021. "Overcoming the loan-to-deposit ratio by a financial intermediation measure — A perspective instrument of financial stability policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 1051-1069.
    52. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2018. "The big bang: Stock market capitalization in the long run," IBF Paper Series 02-18, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    53. Dalla, Eleni & Varelas, Erotokritos, 2019. "Regulation & oligopoly in banking: The role of banking cost structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-1.
    54. Mr. Plamen K Iossifov, 2021. "Cyclical Patterns of Systemic Risk Metrics: Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2021/028, International Monetary Fund.
    55. David Longworth, 2020. "The Era of Digital Financial Innovation: Lessons from Economic History on Regulation," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 568, March.
    56. Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Corporate indebtedness and macroeconomic stabilisation from a long-term perspective," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 024, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

  16. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2016. "The Great Mortgaging," 2016 Meeting Papers 185, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and financial crisis indicators," Discussion Papers 36/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada," CEPR Discussion Papers 12845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    5. Baur, Dirk, 2019. "Monopoly in Real Life - The Housing Market, Finance and Inequality," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203547, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Mattia Guerini & Alessio Moneta & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2018. "The janus-faced nature of debt: results from a data-driven cointegrated svar approach," Post-Print hal-03471585, HAL.
    7. Jun Nagayasu, 2021. "Life Cycles and Gender in Residential Mobility Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 370-401, April.
    8. Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.
    9. Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2021. "Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1936, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Jiří Rajl, 2019. "The Impact of Regulatory Measures on the Development of Household Indebtedness," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(1), pages 5-23.
    11. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: The painful legacy of credit booms," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2017, Bank of Finland.
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    261. Gram, Dennis & Karapanagiotis, Pantelis & Krzyzanowski, Jan & Liebald, Marius & Walz, Uwe, 2021. "An extensible model for historical financial data with an application to German company and stock market data," SAFE Working Paper Series 300, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    262. Abebe Hailemariam & Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Russell Smyth & Kingsley Tetteh Baako, 2021. "Income inequality and housing prices in the very long‐run," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 295-321, July.
    263. Hiebert, Paul & Jaccard, Ivan & Schüler, Yves, 2018. "Contrasting financial and business cycles: Stylized facts and candidate explanations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 72-80.
    264. Monroy-Taborda Sebastián, 2023. "Bank Runs and Inequality," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4672, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    265. Kopecky, Joseph, 2023. "Population age structure and secular stagnation: Evidence from long run data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    266. Baltussen, Guido & Swinkels, Laurens & Van Vliet, Pim, 2021. "Global factor premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1128-1154.
    267. Yu, Zhen & Liu, Wei & Yang, Fuyu, 2023. "A central bankers’ sentiment index of global financial cycle," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    268. Ruben van der Helm & Jan Bartman, 2019. "Making available data more useable: compilation and publication of break-adjusted (historical) time series," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    269. Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Corporate indebtedness and macroeconomic stabilisation from a long-term perspective," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 024, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    270. Ho, Tai-kuang & Yeh, Kuo-chun, 2019. "Were capital flows the culprit in the Weimar economic crisis?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    271. Friedrich Lucke, 2022. "The Great Moderation and the Financial Cycle," Working Papers REM 2022/0238, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    272. Manuel Garcia-Santana & Josep Pijoan-Mas & Lucciano Villacorta, 2018. "Investment and Saving along the Development Path," 2018 Meeting Papers 870, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    273. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Otto, Tizian, 2023. "Forecasting Stock Market Crashes via Machine Learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    274. Yannis Dafermos & Daniela Gabor & Jo Michell, 2023. "Institutional supercycles: an evolutionary macro-finance approach," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 693-712, September.
    275. Marina Khismatullina & Michael Vogt, 2022. "Multiscale Comparison of Nonparametric Trend Curves," Papers 2209.10841, arXiv.org.

  18. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Leveraged Bubbles," CESifo Working Paper Series 5489, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. David Aikman & Michael T. Kiley & Seung Jung Lee & Michael G. Palumbo & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2015. "Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Akin, Ozlem & Marín, J.M. & Peydró, José-Luis, 2019. "Anticipating the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Insider Trading in Banks," EconStor Preprints 216803, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2017. "The macroeconomics of rational bubbles: a user's guide," Economics Working Papers 1581, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2018.
    4. Moritz Schularick, 2022. "New perspectives on monetary policy," Working Papers 3, Forum New Economy.
    5. Caspi, Itamar & Graham, Meital, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in stock markets with irregular dividend distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 89-94.
    6. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2018. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-171.
    7. Moritz Schularick & Bjorn Richter & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 843, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Charles W. Calomiris & Matthew Jaremski, 2016. "Deposit Insurance: Theories and Facts," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 97-120, October.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the South African Stock Market," Working Papers 201624, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Sami Alpanda & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2016. "Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?," Staff Working Papers 16-19, Bank of Canada.
    11. Meller, Barbara & Metiu, Norbert, 2017. "The synchronization of credit cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 98-111.
    12. Bartscher, Alina Kristin & Kuhn, Moritz & Schularick, Moritz & Wachtel, Paul, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality," LawFin Working Paper Series 15, Goethe University, Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance (LawFin).
    13. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2017. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," ESRB Working Paper Series 45, European Systemic Risk Board.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Date-stamping US housing market explosivity," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Claudio Battiati, 2017. "R&D, growth, and macroprudential policy in an economy undergoing boom-bust cycles," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 48, Bank of Lithuania.
    16. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Drumond, Inês, 2017. "Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 187-207.
    17. Markus Behn & Carsten Detken & Tuomas Peltonen & Willem Schudel, 2017. "Predicting Vulnerabilities in the EU Banking Sector: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 147-189, December.
    18. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Héricourt & Samuel Ligonnière, 2019. "Structure of Income Inequality and Household Leverage: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," Post-Print halshs-02079212, HAL.
    19. Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-Term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 5902, CESifo.
    20. Hanson, Andrew & Phan, Toan, 2017. "Bubbles, wage rigidity, and persistent slumps," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 66-70.
    21. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    22. Alfred Duncan & Charles Nolan, 2017. "Financial Frictions in Macroeconomic Models," Studies in Economics 1719, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    23. Tng Boon Hwa & Mala Raghavan & Teh Tian Huey, 2017. "Macro-financial effects of portfolio flows: Malaysia’s experience," CAMA Working Papers 2017-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    24. Markus Leibrecht & Johann Scharler, 2017. "Financial Crises and the Composition of Public Finances: Evidence from OECD Countries," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    25. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2019. "Thoughts on a review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1fsnu13sl59, Sciences Po.
    26. Federico Favaretto & Donato Masciandaro, 2022. "Populism, financial crises and banking policies: Economics and psychology," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 441-464, September.
    27. Ardila, Diego & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "Dating the financial cycle with uncertainty estimates: a wavelet proposition," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 298-304.
    28. Tng Boon Hwa & Mala Raghavan & Teh Tian Huey, 2017. "Macroeconomic surveillance of portfolio flows and its real effects: Malaysia's experience," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    29. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part II: Financial cycles," Economics wp72, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    30. Rey, Hélène & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Vítor Martins & Alessandro Turrini & Bořek Vašíček & Madalina Zamfir, 2021. "Euro Area Housing Markets: Trends, Challenges and Policy Responses," European Economy - Discussion Papers 147, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    32. Bazillier, Rémi & Héricourt, Jérôme & Ligonnière, Samuel, 2021. "Structure of income inequality and household leverage: Cross-country causal evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    33. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Huanhuan Zheng, 2016. "House Valuations and Economic Growth: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  19. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 4993, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Alan M. & Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz, 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "What if supply-side policies are not enough ? The perverse interaction of flexibility and austerity," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458460, HAL.
    3. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and financial crisis indicators," Discussion Papers 36/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Valentina Aprigliano & Danilo Liberati, 2019. "Using credit variables to date business cycle and to estimate the probabilities of recession in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1229, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Kristijan Kotarski & Milan Deskar-Škrbiæ, 2016. "Transcending the new macroeconomic orthodoxy in the Eurozone: a Post-Keynesian view," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 419-441.
    6. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "Financial cycles and co-movements between the real economy, finance and asset price dynamics in large-scale crises," FinMaP-Working Papers 61, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    7. Erlend Eide Bø, 2015. "Taxation of housing. Killing several birds with one stone," Discussion Papers 829, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    8. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Christophe André & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Spillovers between US real estate and financial assets in time and frequency domains," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(6), pages 525-537, April.
    9. Dia, Enzo & VanHoose, David, 2017. "Banking in macroeconomic theory and policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 149-160.
    10. Funke, Michael & Sun, Rongrong & Zhu, Linxu, 2018. "The credit risk of Chinese households: A micro-level assessment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    11. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa, 2022. "How did house and stock prices respond to different crisis episodes since the 1870s?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    12. Moritz Schularick & Bjorn Richter & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 843, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2020. "Indebted Demand," CESifo Working Paper Series 8210, CESifo.
    14. Josh Ryan-Collins, 2015. "Is Monetary Financing Inflationary? A Case Study of the Canadian Economy, 1935-75," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_848, Levy Economics Institute.
    15. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2023. "Do Public Sector Employment Reductions Promote Informality?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10614, CESifo.
    16. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2020. "How Does Credit Supply Expansion Affect the Real Economy? The Productive Capacity and Household Demand Channels," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 949-994, April.
    17. Robin Döttling & Enrico Perotti, 2020. "Secular Trends and Technological Progress," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 006, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    18. Gertjan Wijburg & Manuel B. Aalbers, 2017. "The alternative financialization of the German housing market," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 968-989, October.
    19. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Héricourt & Samuel Ligonnière, 2021. "Structure of income inequality and household leverage : Cross-country causal evidence," Post-Print halshs-03099741, HAL.
    20. Ariell Reshef & Hamid Boustanifar & Everett Grant, 2017. "Wages and Human Capital in Finance: International Evidence, 1970–2011," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-01472400, HAL.
    21. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
    22. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2019. "A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2019-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    23. Oguzhan Cepni & Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2020. "Credit decomposition and economic activity in Turkey: A wavelet-based approach," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(3), pages 109-131.
    24. Chiara Perillo & Stefano Battiston, 2020. "Financialization and unconventional monetary policy: a financial-network analysis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1385-1428, November.
    25. Daniel Carvalho, 2022. "Intra-financial assets and the intermediation role of the financial sector," Trinity Economics Papers tep0622, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    26. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Anil Kashyap & Caspar Siegert, 2019. "Would Macroprudential Regulation Have Prevented the Last Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    27. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "Small open economies in the vast oceanof global high finance," Economics wp73, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    28. Martin Gachter & Elias Hasler & Florian Huber, 2023. "A tale of two tails: 130 years of growth-at-risk," Papers 2302.08920, arXiv.org.
    29. Shang, Longfei & Saffar, Walid, 2023. "Employment Protection and Household Mortgage Debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    30. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "Monetary policy surprises shocks under different fiscal regimes: a panel analysis of the Euro Area," Working Papers REM 2023/0284, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    31. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1708, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    32. Florian Botte & Laurent Cordonnier & Thomas Dallery & Vincent Duwicquet & Jordan Melmies & Franck van de Velde, 2017. "The cost of capital: between losses and diversion of wealth [Le coût du capital : entre pertes et détournement de richesses]," Working Papers hal-01711157, HAL.
    33. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada," CEPR Discussion Papers 12845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2016. "How distinct are financial cycles from business cycles?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 26.
    35. Bezemer, Dirk & Samarina, Anna & Zhang, Lu, 2020. "Does mortgage lending impact business credit? Evidence from a new disaggregated bank credit data set," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    36. Gianni La Cava & Lydia Wang, 2021. "The Rise in Household Liquidity," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    37. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Richter, Björn & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The shifts and the shocks: bank risk, leverage, and the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2672, European Central Bank.
    38. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 132-144.
    39. Lukáš Fiala, 2021. "Modelling of mortgage debt´s determinants: the case of the Czech Republic," FFA Working Papers 4.002, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 15 Jan 2022.
    40. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    41. Baur, Dirk, 2019. "Monopoly in Real Life - The Housing Market, Finance and Inequality," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203547, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    42. John Muellbauer, 2016. "Macroeconomics and Consumption," Economics Series Working Papers Paper-811, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    43. Farmer, J. Doyne & Carro, Adrian & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Uluc, Arzu, 2022. "Heterogeneous Effects and Spillovers of Macroprudential Policy in an Agent-Based Model of the UK Housing Market," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-06, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    44. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis & Rob Calvert Jump, 2019. "Debt-driven business cycles in historical perspective: The cases of the USA (1889-2015) and UK (1882-2010)," Working Papers PKWP1907, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    45. Sofoklis Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou, 2017. "Determinants of Housing Prices and Bubble Detection: Evidence from Seven Advanced Economies," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(1), pages 119-131, March.
    46. Brandão-Marques, Luis & Chen, Qianying & Raddatz, Claudio & Vandenbussche, Jérôme & Xie, Peichu, 2022. "The riskiness of credit allocation and financial stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    47. Mueller, Holger & Giroud, Xavier, 2018. "Firm Leverage and Regional Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 13355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    48. Mattia Guerini & Alessio Moneta & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2018. "The janus-faced nature of debt: results from a data-driven cointegrated svar approach," Post-Print hal-03471585, HAL.
    49. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis, 2023. "Debt-GDP cycles in historical perspective: the case of the USA (1889–2014)," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 317-335.
    50. Ambrosius, Christian, 2017. "What explains the speed of recovery from banking crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 257-287.
    51. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    52. Hodula Martin & Malovaná Simona & Frait Jan, 2022. "Too much of a good thing? Households’ macroeconomic conditions and credit dynamics," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 529-566, December.
    53. Paul Wachtel, 2017. "Credit Deepening: Precursor to growth or crisis?," Working Papers 17-04, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    54. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    55. Mathias Klein, 2017. "Austerity and Private Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1555-1585, October.
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    57. Eckley, Peter & Benetton, Matteo & Latsi, Georgia & Garbarino, Nicola & Kirwin, Liam, 2017. "Specialisation in mortgage risk under Basel II," Bank of England working papers 639, Bank of England.
    58. Indrani Manna & Martin Suster & Biswajit Banerjee, 2022. "House Price Expectations, Household Indebtedness and Macroprudential Policy in Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 5/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    59. Graziano Moramarco, 2021. "Financial-cycle ratios and medium-term predictions of GDP: Evidence from the United States," Papers 2111.00822, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    60. Jun Nagayasu, 2021. "Life Cycles and Gender in Residential Mobility Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 370-401, April.
    61. Bahadir, Berrak & Valev, Neven, 2017. "Catching up or drifting apart: Convergence of household and business credit in Europe," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 101-114.
    62. Viral V. Acharya & Katharina Bergant & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Fergal J. McCann, 2020. "The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies," NBER Working Papers 27292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    63. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    64. Pavlidis, Efthymios G. & Vasilopoulos, Kostas, 2020. "Speculative bubbles in segmented markets: Evidence from Chinese cross-listed stocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
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    67. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.
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    1. Joanna Stawska & Katarzyna Miszczyńska, 2017. "The Impact of the European Central Bank’s Interest Rates on Investments in the Euro Area," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 51-72.
    2. Guay Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2016. "Non-Linearities in the Relationship between House Prices and Interest Rates: Implications for Monetary Policy," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2016n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2016. "Adverse Effects of Ultra-Loose Monetary Policies on Investment, Growth and Income Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 5754, CESifo.
    4. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2018. "Does a big bazooka matter? Central bank balance-sheet policies and exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2197, European Central Bank.
    5. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    6. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets," Working Paper 2017/25, Norges Bank.
    7. Florian Léon, 2019. "Household Credit and Growth: International Evidence," DEM Discussion Paper Series 19-02, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    8. Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Vadim Elenev, 2015. "Phasing out the GSEs," 2015 Meeting Papers 977, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Perry Warjiyo, 2016. "Central Bank Policy Mix: Key Concepts and Indonesia’s Experience," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 18(4), pages 1-30, April.
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    11. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    12. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2020. "Indebted Demand," CESifo Working Paper Series 8210, CESifo.
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    95. Ahmed, Rashad, 2021. "Monetary policy spillovers under intermediate exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    96. Saroj Bhattarai & Felipe Schwartzman & Choongryul Yang, 2019. "The Persistent Employment Effects of the 2006-09 U.S. Housing Wealth Collapse," Working Paper 19-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
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    98. Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2020. "Inflation Globally," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 8, pages 269-316, Central Bank of Chile.
    99. Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2020. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Working Papers 2020-16, Princeton University. Economics Department..
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    102. Isabel Schnabel & Christian Seckinger, 2014. "Financial Fragmentation and Economic Growth in Europe," Working Papers 1502, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 13 Feb 2014.
    103. Quinn, William & Turner, John D., 2021. "Riding the bubble or taken for a ride? Investors in the British bicycle mania," QUCEH Working Paper Series 21-07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    104. Samuel Guérineau & Florian Leon, 2018. "Information sharing, credit booms and financial stability: Do developing economies differ from advanced countries?," Post-Print hal-02009188, HAL.
    105. Aarti Singh & Jacek Suda & Anastasia Zervou, 2023. "Heterogeneous labor market response to monetary policy: small versus large firms," NBP Working Papers 355, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    106. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    107. Barry Eichengreen, 2016. "The Great Depression in a Modern Mirror," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-17, March.
    108. Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "Household credit in Asia-Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial systems and the real economy, volume 91, pages 129-144, Bank for International Settlements.
    109. Lenarčič, Črt, 2021. "Estimating business and financial cycles in Slovenia," MPRA Paper 109977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    110. MIYAKAWA Daisuke & SHIMIZU Chihiro & UESUGI Iichiro, 2019. "Geography and Realty Prices: Evidence from International Transaction-Level Data," Discussion papers 19011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    111. William Diamond & Tim Landvoigt, 2019. "Credit Cycles with Market Based Household Leverage," 2019 Meeting Papers 162, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    112. Aizenman, Joshua, 2019. "A modern reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming's trilemma," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 444-454.
    113. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2015. "Is There a Bubble in the German Housing Market?," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 53, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    114. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
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    118. Monnet, Eric & Wolf , Clara, 2017. "Demographic cycles, migration and housing investment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 38-49.
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    122. Zoë Venter, 2021. "Honing in on Housing," Working Papers REM 2021/0163, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
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  21. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Working Paper Series 2014-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Levin, Andrew T., 2014. "The design and communication of systematic monetary policy strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 52-69.
    2. Claudia Foroni & Francesco Furlanetto, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun’s Law," Working Paper 2022/4, Norges Bank.
    3. Mark Elder & Magnus Bengtsson & Lewis Akenji, 2016. "An Optimistic Analysis of the Means of Implementation for Sustainable Development Goals: Thinking about Goals as Means," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-24, September.

  22. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2013. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," Working Paper Series 2013-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Mokas, Dimitris & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2023. "Effects of LTV announcements in EU economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Fergus Cumming & Paul Hubert, 2019. "The role of households' borrowing constraints in the transmission of monetary policy," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403257, HAL.
    3. Blanco Barroso, Joao & Barbone Gonzalez, Rodrigo & Peydró, José-Luis & Nazar van Doornik, Bernardus, 2019. "Countercyclical Liquidity Policy and Credit Cycles: Evidence from Macroprudential and Monetary Policy in Brazil," EconStor Preprints 216792, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Ernesto Crivelli & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, 2014. "Does conditionality in IMF-supported programs promote revenue reform?," IMF Working Papers 2014/206, International Monetary Fund.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P Smith, 2014. "Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1406, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    6. Kamalyan, Hayk, 2021. "The State-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 107489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2023. "Do Public Sector Employment Reductions Promote Informality?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10614, CESifo.
    8. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 20501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2018. "Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-154.
    10. Kristin Forbes & Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2014. "Capital-flow Management Measures: What Are They Good For?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2014, pages 76-97, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    12. Forni, Mario & Debortoli, Davide & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy Easing and Tightening," CEPR Discussion Papers 15005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2022. "Comparison of local projection estimators for proxy vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Tenreyro, Silvana & Thwaites, Gregory, 2016. "Pushing on a string: US monetary policy is less powerful in recessions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69214, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Benjamin Gardner & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2021. "Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Felipe Benguria & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 509-526, December.
    17. Taylor, Alan M. & Cloyne, James & Jordà , Òscar, 2020. "Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 14544, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries," BIS Working Papers 553, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2016. "Sovereigns going bust: estimating the cost of default," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 01/2016, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    20. Zeqin Liu & Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Ming Lin, 2019. "Statistical Analysis and Evaluation of Macroeconomic Policies: A Selective Review," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201904, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2019.
    21. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 30971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Kristin J Forbes & Michael W Klein, 2015. "Pick Your Poison: The Choices and Consequences of Policy Responses to Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 197-237, May.
    23. Robert Adamek & Stephan Smeekes & Ines Wilms, 2022. "Local Projection Inference in High Dimensions," Papers 2209.03218, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    24. Hauzenberger, Niko & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna, 2021. "On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 822-845.
    25. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Luca Rossi, 2020. "Monetary policy gradualism and the nonlinear effects of monetary shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1275, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    26. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2014. "The time for austerity: Estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy," SAFE Working Paper Series 79, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    27. Dörffel, Christoph & Freytag, Andreas, 2023. "The poverty effect of democratization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    28. Tenreyro, Silvana & De Silva, Tiloka, 2021. "Presidential Address 2021: climate-change pledges, actions and outcomes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112139, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    30. Baqaee, David Rezza, 2020. "Asymmetric inflation expectations, downward rigidity of wages, and asymmetric business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 174-193.
    31. Max Breitenlechner & Johann Scharler, 2020. "Private Sector Debt, Financial Constraints, and the Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 889-915, August.
    32. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2019. "Sovereigns going bust: Estimating the cost of default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-21.
    33. Mu-Jeung Yang & Johannes Wieland, 2015. "Financial Dampening," 2015 Meeting Papers 1022, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    34. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2020. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 22-40.
    35. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    36. Guido M. Kuersteiner & David C. Phillips & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Effective Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention? Evidence from a Rule-Based Policy," Borradores de Economia 964, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    37. Francesca Caselli & Mr. Philippe Wingender, 2018. "Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 2018/182, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2018. "Evaluating the Unconventional Monetary Policy in Stock Markets : A Semi-parametric Approach," Discussion paper series. A 322, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Hokkaido University.
    39. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    40. Alessio Anzuini & Luca Rossi, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies and expectations on economic variables," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1323, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    41. Fratzscher, Marcel & Forbes, Kristin & Straub, Roland, 2014. "Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9798, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Antonis Adam & Sofia Tsarsitalidou, 2019. "Do sanctions lead to a decline in civil liberties?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 191-215, September.
    43. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Aaron Mehrotra & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2020. "Residential Investment and Economic Activity: Evidence from the Past Five Decades," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 287-329, December.
    44. Jongrim Ha, 2020. "Nonlinear transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks to international financial markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 350-369, December.
    45. Bunce, Alan & Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul, 2023. "Asymmetric effect of the oil price in the ecuadorian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    46. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Gaussian Mixture Approximations of Impulse Responses and The Non-Linear Effects of Monetary Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    47. Christian Matthes & Regis Barnichon, 2015. "Measuring the Non-Linear Effects of Monetary Policy," 2015 Meeting Papers 49, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    48. Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "An Unconventional Approach to Evaluate the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Program," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 79-94, February.
    49. Fergus Cumming & Paul Hubert, 2019. "The Role of Households' Borrowing Constraints in the Transmission of Monetary Policy This paper investigates how the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy depends on the distribution of ," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2019-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    50. François Bareille & Julien Wolfersberger & Matteo Zavalloni, 2023. "Institutions and conservation: The case of protected areas," Post-Print hal-03920138, HAL.
    51. Stockwell, Thomas, 2023. "Should models of monetary policy asymmetry include interaction terms?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    52. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    53. Carvalho, Carlos & Masini, Ricardo & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2018. "ArCo: An artificial counterfactual approach for high-dimensional panel time-series data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 352-380.
    54. Viral V. Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2023. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_446, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    55. Victor Song & Libo Xu, 2023. "Do Monetary Policy Shocks Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Market?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 1063-1078, November.
    56. Alpanda, Sami & Granziera, Eleonora & Zubairy, Sarah, 2019. "State dependence of monetary policy across business, credit and interest rate cycles," Working Paper 2019/21, Norges Bank.
    57. Valerie A. Ramey, 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," NBER Working Papers 21978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. Caselli, Francesca & Wingender, Philippe, 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of fiscal rules: The Maastricht fiscal criterion and the counterfactual distribution of government deficits✰," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    59. Llanos, Cristian & Kristjanpoller, Werner & Michell, Kevin & Minutolo, Marcel C., 2022. "Causal treatment effects in time series: CO2 emissions and energy consumption effect on GDP," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    60. Mary Everett & Jakob de Haan & David‐Jan Jansen & Peter McQuade & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Mortgage lending, monetary policy, and prudential measures in small euro‐area economies: Evidence from Ireland and the Netherlands," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 117-143, February.
    61. Abel François & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2021. "Politicians at higher levels of government are perceived as more corrupt," Post-Print hal-03129928, HAL.
    62. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    63. Roben Kloosterman & Dennis Bonam & Koen van der Veer, 2022. "The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes," Working Papers 755, DNB.
    64. Kim, Youngju & Lim, Hyunjoon, 2020. "Transmission of monetary policy in times of high household debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    65. Adam, Antonis & Tsarsitalidou, Sofia, 2023. "Be my guest: the effect of foreign policy visits to the USA on FDI," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119368, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    66. Bennett Schmanski & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2023. "Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    67. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2014. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," NBER Working Papers 20004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    68. Jalan, Akanksha & Matkovskyy, Roman & Urquhart, Andrew, 2022. "Demand elasticities of Bitcoin and Ethereum," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    69. Hoda Youssef & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2018. "Sovereign Wealth Funds and Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Home Economy," Working Papers 1175, Economic Research Forum, revised 29 Mar 2008.
    70. Adam, Antonis & Tsarsitalidou, Sofia, 2019. "Serving two masters: The effect of state religion on fiscal capacity," MPRA Paper 101857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    71. Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "Household credit in Asia-Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial systems and the real economy, volume 91, pages 129-144, Bank for International Settlements.
    72. Leonardo Marinho, 2022. "Causal Impulse Responses for Time Series," Working Papers Series 570, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    73. Toru Kitagawa & Weining Wang & Mengshan Xu, 2022. "Policy Choice in Time Series by Empirical Welfare Maximization," Papers 2205.03970, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    74. Samba Mbaye & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Kyungla Chae, 2018. "Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public," IMF Working Papers 2018/141, International Monetary Fund.
    75. Martin Harding & Mathias Klein, 2022. "Monetary policy and household net worth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 125-151, April.
    76. Pontines, Victor & Luvsannyam, Davaajargal & Atarbaatar, Enkhjin & Munkhtsetseg, Ulziikhutag, 2021. "The effectiveness of currency intervention: Evidence from Mongolia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    77. Jean Lacroix & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2021. "Democratic transitions can attract foreign direct investment: Effect, trajectories, and the role of political risk," Post-Print hal-04210351, HAL.
    78. André Diniz, 2018. "Effects of Fiscal Consolidations in Latin America," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 694-731, December.
    79. Mäkinen, Taneli & Li, Fan & Mercatanti, Andrea & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2022. "Causal analysis of central bank holdings of corporate bonds under interference," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
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    82. Viral V. Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2020. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," NBER Working Papers 27537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," 2013 Meeting Papers 71, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Alan M. & Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz, 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Cheng, Han-Liang, 2020. "A Study of Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy in Taiwan," MPRA Paper 101296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle and Ultra-low Interest Rates," PIER Discussion Papers 55, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 19506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2015. "Business cycle and financial cycle spillovers in the G7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 154-162.
    7. Masami Imai & Michiru Sawada, 2022. "Does a Financial Crisis Impair Corporate Innovation?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2022-002, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
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    420. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Meuchelböck, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2021. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2021 - Pandemiebedingte Potenzialschäden eher gering," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 78, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    421. Warapong Wongwachara & Bovonvich Jindarak & Nuwat Nookhwun & Sophon Tunyavetchakit & Chutipha Klungjaturavet, 2018. "Integrating Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: A New Framework," PIER Discussion Papers 100, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    422. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2022. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Winter 2022 - Im Kriechgang durch die Energiekrise [German Economy Winter 2022 - Inching through the energy crisis]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 98, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    423. Andersen, Henrik Yde, 2018. "Do tax incentives for saving in pension accounts cause debt accumulation? Evidence from Danish register data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 35-53.

  24. Oscar Jorda & John Fernald & Fernanda Nechio & Mary Daly, 2013. "Okun’s Macroscope: Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Productivity and the Comovement between Output and Unemployment," 2013 Meeting Papers 1155, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2021. "Macroeconomic shocks and Okun’s Law," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

  25. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 4431, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Kristijan Kotarski & Milan Deskar-Škrbiæ, 2016. "Transcending the new macroeconomic orthodoxy in the Eurozone: a Post-Keynesian view," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 419-441.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2013. "On Keeping Your Powder Dry: Fiscal Foundations of Financial and Price Stability," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 31, pages 25-38, November.
    3. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    4. Caner, Mehmet & Fan, Qingliang & Grennes, Thomas, 2021. "Partners in debt: An endogenous non-linear analysis of the effects of public and private debt on growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 694-711.
    5. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    6. Jung, Alexander, 2020. "An empirical analysis of loan supply and demand in the euro area," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 187-201.
    7. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "In sickness and in debt: The COVID-19 impact on sovereign credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1251-1274.
    8. Eric Monnet & Miklos Vari, 2023. "A Dilemma between Liquidity Regulation and Monetary Policy: some History and Theory," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03954090, HAL.
    9. Moritz Schularick & Bjorn Richter & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 843, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Jung, Alexander & Carcel Villanova, Hector, 2020. "The empirical properties of euro area M3, 1980-2017," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 37-49.
    11. Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller, 2016. "The performativity of potential output: Pro-cyclicality and path dependency in coordinating European fiscal policies," Working Papers Series 50, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    12. Maria Manuel Campos & Cristina Checherita-Westphal, 2019. "Economic consequences of high public debt and challenges ahead for the euro area," Working Papers o201904, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Vicente Esteve & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(2), pages 219-249, May.
    14. Mr. Tamon Asonuma & Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Aitor Erce & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel," IMF Working Papers 2019/069, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Mathonnat, Clément & Minea, Alexandru, 2018. "Financial development and the occurrence of banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 344-354.
    16. Andersson, Fredrik N. G. & Jonung, Lars, 2019. "The Swedish Fiscal Framework – The Most Successful One in the EU?," Working Papers 2019:6, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    17. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1708, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    18. Eichacker, Nina, 2015. "Financial liberalization and the onset of financial crisis in Western European states between 1983 and 2011: An econometric investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 323-343.
    19. Cuciniello, Vincenzo & di Iasio, Nicola, 2021. "Determinants of the credit cycle: a flow analysis of the extensive margin," ESRB Working Paper Series 125, European Systemic Risk Board.
    20. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    21. Henri-Paul Rousseau, 2019. "A schematic view of government as regulator and insurer of the financial system," Working Papers halshs-01993612, HAL.
    22. Mathias Klein, 2017. "Austerity and Private Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1555-1585, October.
    23. Martin Kuncl, 2016. "Fragility of Resale Markets for Securitized Assets and Policy of Asset Purchases," Staff Working Papers 16-46, Bank of Canada.
    24. Felipe Benguria & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 509-526, December.
    25. Bennani, T. & Després, M. & Dujardin, M. & Duprey, T. & Kelber, A., 2014. "Macroprudential framework:key questions applied to the French case," Occasional papers 9, Banque de France.
    26. Li, Jing-Ping & Mirza, Nawazish & Rahat, Birjees & Xiong, Deping, 2020. "Machine learning and credit ratings prediction in the age of fourth industrial revolution," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    27. Luigi Guiso & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno & Helios Herrera, 2021. "The Financial Drivers of Populism in Europe," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21166, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    28. Eric Monnet & Miklos Vari, 2019. "Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy," IMF Working Papers 2019/176, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Claudio Borio & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "Is Monetary Policy Less Effective When Interest Rates Are Persistently Low?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    30. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2015. "Going to Extremes: Politics after Financial Crises, 1870-2014," CESifo Working Paper Series 5553, CESifo.
    31. Schularick, Moritz & Ferguson, Niall & Schaab, Andreas, 2015. "Central Bank Balance Sheets: Expansion and Reduction since 1900," CEPR Discussion Papers 10635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2014. "The Circulare Relationship between inequality, Leverage and Financial Crisis," Working Papers halshs-01204821, HAL.
    33. Stephan Luck & Paul Schempp, 2014. "Outside Liquidity, Rollover Risk, and Government Bonds," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2014_14, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    34. Javier Andrés & Óscar Arce & Carlos Thomas, 2016. "When fiscal consolidation meets private deleveraging," Working Papers 1622, Banco de España.
    35. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2019. "Fiscal Space and the Aftermath of Financial Crises: How It Matters and Why," NBER Working Papers 25768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Benedetta Bianchi, 2016. "Sovereign Risk Premia and the International Balance Sheet: Lessons from the European Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 471-493, July.
    37. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2017. "Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets," Working Papers 22, European Stability Mechanism.
    38. Rant, Vasja & Marinč, Matej & Porenta, Jan, 2021. "Debt and convergence: Evidence from the EU member states," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    39. Liu, Jingyang & Kool, Clemens J.M., 2018. "Money and credit overhang in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 622-633.
    40. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Alexey Khazanov & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Financial and Macroeconomic Data Through the Lens of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    41. Joao Jalles, 2023. "Pandemics and economic turmoil in the shortrun: the role of fiscal space," Working Papers 2023.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    42. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2019. "Sovereigns going bust: Estimating the cost of default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-21.
    43. Jung, Alexander & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and the health of banks," Working Paper Series 2303, European Central Bank.
    44. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2019. "Re-examining the debt-growth nexus: A grouped fixed-effect approach," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-21, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    45. García Osma, Beatriz & Mora, Araceli & Porcuna-Enguix, Luis, 2019. "Prudential supervisors’ independence and income smoothing in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 156-176.
    46. Monnet, Eric & Degorce, Victor, 2020. "The Great Depression as a Saving Glut," CEPR Discussion Papers 15287, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    47. Schleer, Frauke & Kappler, Marcus, 2014. "The Phillips Curve: (In)stability, the role of credit, and implications for potential output measurement," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-067, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    48. Levieuge, Grégory & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2021. "The cost of banking crises: Does the policy framework matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    49. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Comín, Francisco & Cuevas, Joaquim, 2017. "The Deadly Embrace Between The Banks And The State In Spain, 1850-2015," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 387-414, December.
    51. Javier Andres & Oscar Arce & Dominik Thaler & Carlos Thomas, 2020. "Online Appendix to "When Fiscal Consolidation Meets Private Deleveraging"," Online Appendices 18-471, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    52. Apeti, Ablam Estel, 2023. "Household welfare in the digital age: Assessing the effect of mobile money on household consumption volatility in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    53. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2023. "Drivers of Sovereign Bond Demand – The Case of Japans," Working Papers REM 2023/0264, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    54. Efraim Benmelech & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2020. "The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Bergant, Katharina & Forbes, Kristin, 2023. "Policy packages and policy space: Lessons from COVID-19☆," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    56. Moreno Badia, Marialuz & Medas, Paulo & Gupta, Pranav & Xiang, Yuan, 2022. "Debt is not free," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    57. Davis, J. Scott & Mack, Adrienne & Phoa, Wesley & Vandenabeele, Anne, 2016. "Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    58. Sanjay R. Singh & Nicolas Caramp, 2020. "Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 336, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    59. Alfred Duncan & Charles Nolan, 2017. "Financial Frictions in Macroeconomic Models," Studies in Economics 1719, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    60. Giovanni Covi, 2017. "The emerging regulatory landscape: a new normal," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(3), pages 233-255, July.
    61. Cusato Novelli, Antonio & Barcia, Giancarlo, 2021. "Sovereign Risk, Public Investment and the Fiscal Policy Stance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    62. Mr. Markus Eberhardt & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2018. "Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/153, International Monetary Fund.
    63. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," NBER Working Papers 24154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    64. Clément Mathonnat & Alexandru Minea & Marcel Voia, 2022. "Does more finance lead to longer crises?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 111-135, January.
    65. Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2019. "Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy," IMF Working Papers 2019/170, International Monetary Fund.
    66. Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2015. "Excess Finance and Growth: Don't Lose Sight of Expansions !," Working Papers 2015-31, CEPII research center.
    67. Affinito, Massimiliano & Albareto, Giorgio & Santioni, Raffaele, 2022. "Purchases of sovereign debt securities by banks during the crisis: The role of balance sheet conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    68. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "What drives the duration of credit booms?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1531-1549, January.
    69. Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe & Lode Vereeck & Johan Vanovertveldt, 2015. "Does debt predict growth? An empirical analysis of the relationship between total debt and economic output," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 4(2), pages 79-103, December.
    70. Wei-han Liu, 2023. "Attaining stochastic optimal control over debt ratios in U.S. markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 967-993, October.
    71. Perugini, Cristiano & Hölscher, Jens & Collie, Simon, 2013. "Inequality, credit expansion and financial crises," MPRA Paper 51336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Caio Ferreira & Nigel Jenkinson & Mr. Luc Laeven & Alberto Martin & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Alex Popov, 2018. "Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2018/016, International Monetary Fund.
    73. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Aurora Maria Mordonu, 2015. "Interlinkages between Household and Corporate Debt in Advanced Economies," European Economy - Discussion Papers 017, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    74. Pablo Burriel & Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Schön & Nikolai Stähler, 2020. "Economic consequences of high public debt: evidence from three large scale DSGE models," Working Papers 2029, Banco de España.
    75. Fajeau, Maxime, 2021. "Too much finance or too many weak instruments?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 14-36.
    76. Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 21039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    77. Henri-Paul Rousseau, 2019. "A schematic view of government as regulator and insurer of the financial system," PSE Working Papers halshs-01993612, HAL.
    78. Katharina Bergant & Kristin Forbes, 2021. "Macroprudential Policy during COVID-19: The Role of Policy Space," NBER Working Papers 29346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    79. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Héricourt, 2014. "The Circular Relationship between Inequality, Leverage, and Financial Crises: Intertwined Mechanisms and Competing Evidence," Working Papers 2014-22, CEPII research center.
    80. Siwińska-Gorzelak Joanna & Brzozowski Michał, 2018. "Sovereign default and the structure of private external debt," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 5(52), pages 1-9, January.
    81. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2022. "On the heterogeneous link between public debt and economic growth," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    82. Lena Tonzer, 2013. "Cross-Border Interbank Networks, Banking Risk and Contagion," FIW Working Paper series 129, FIW.
    83. Patricia Palhau Mora, 2018. "The “Too Big to Fail” Subsidy in Canada: Some Estimates," Staff Working Papers 18-9, Bank of Canada.
    84. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 430-443.
    85. Jay C. Shambaugh & Michael R. Strain, 2021. "The Recovery from the Great Recession: A Long, Evolving Expansion," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 695(1), pages 28-48, May.
    86. Ms. Wenjie Chen & Mr. Mico Mrkaic & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2019. "The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2019/083, International Monetary Fund.
    87. de Ridder, M. & Pfajfar, D., 2017. "Policy Shocks and Wage Rigidities: Empirical Evidence from Regional Effects of National Shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1717, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    88. Presbitero, Andrea & Eberhardt, Markus, 2021. "Commodity Prices and Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 15959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    89. Zheng, Huanhuan, 2023. "Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    90. Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "How do financial cycles affect public debt cycles?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 425-460, March.
    91. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2014. "Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1417, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    92. Bernardini, Marco & Forni, Lorenzo, 2020. "Private and public debt interlinkages in bad times," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    93. Ablam Estel Apeti & Jean-Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "Did Fiscal Space Foster Covid-19's Fiscal Stimuli ?," Post-Print hal-03351634, HAL.
    94. Ryan R. Brady, 2021. "Direct Forecasting for Applied Regional Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 67, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    95. Ablam Estel Apeti, 2022. "Household welfare in the digital age: Assessing the effect of mobile money on household consumption volatility in developing countries," Post-Print hal-03819779, HAL.
    96. Kaehler, Juergen & Weber, Christoph S., 2023. "Inflation in the aftermath of financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    97. Chen, Ruoyu & Iqbal, Najaf & Irfan, Muhammad & Shahzad, Farrukh & Fareed, Zeeshan, 2022. "Does financial stress wreak havoc on banking, insurance, oil, and gold markets? New empirics from the extended joint connectedness of TVP-VAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    98. Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 66-77.
    99. Guillaume Cléaud & Francisco de Castro Fernández & Jorge Durán Laguna & Lucia Granelli & Martin Hallet & Anne Jaubertie & Carlos Maravall Rodriguez & Diana Ognyanova & Balazs Palvolgyi & Tsvetan Tsali, 2019. "Cruising at Different Speeds: Similarities and Divergences between the German and the French Economies," European Economy - Discussion Papers 103, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

  26. Òscar Jordà, 2013. "Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce," Working Paper Series 2013-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Harri Ponka, 2017. "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, August.

  27. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 9646, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Bernardin Akitoby & Mr. Jiro Honda & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2019. "Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Gender Employment: Evidence from the G-7 Countries," IMF Working Papers 2019/004, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mokas, Dimitris & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2023. "Effects of LTV announcements in EU economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Fernando Broner & Daragh Clancy & Alberto Martin & Aitor Erce, 2017. "Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt," Economics Working Papers 1610, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2021.
    4. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2023. "The effects of fiscal institutions on fiscal adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Michael D. Bauer & Carolin Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2023. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2023-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Hack, Lukas & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of systematic monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2851, European Central Bank.
    7. Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi, 2014. "Chapter 3: Austerity: Hurting but Helping," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 75-90, February.
    8. Régis Barnichon & Davide Debortoli & Christian Matthes, 2020. "Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign," Working Paper Series 2021-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Hebous, Shafik & Zimmermann, Tom, 2014. "Revisiting the Narrative Approach of Estimating Fiscal Multipliers," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100408, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Gualtiero Azzalini & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Armando Miano, 2016. "Is it the "How" or the "When" that Matters in Fiscal Adjustments?," NBER Working Papers 22863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    13. Arindrajit Dube & Daniele Girardi & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences Event Studies," Working Paper Series 2023-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Bernd Hayo & Sascha Mierzwa, 2021. "State-Dependent Effects of Tax Changes in Germany and the United Kingdom," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202125, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Hang Miao & Kui Zhao & Zhun Wang & Linbo Jiang & Quanhui Jia & Yanming Fang & Quan Yu, 2020. "Intelligent Credit Limit Management in Consumer Loans Based on Causal Inference," Papers 2007.05188, arXiv.org.
    16. Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Rubio-Guerrero, Juan J., 2022. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: Further evidence for Spain," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 305-313.
    17. Gatien Bon & Gong Cheng, 2020. "China’s debt relief actions overseas and macroeconomic implications," Working Papers hal-04159688, HAL.
    18. António Afonso & José Alves, 2023. "Are fiscal consolidation episodes helpful for public sector efficiency?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(31), pages 3547-3560, July.
    19. Gong Cheng & Javier Diaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Official Debt Restructuring: Evidence from the Paris Club," Working Papers 21, European Stability Mechanism, revised 24 Apr 2017.
    20. Alessio Terzi, 2019. "The Euro Crisis and Economic Growth: A Novel Counterfactual Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 7746, CESifo.
    21. Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore, 2020. "Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks," NBER Working Papers 27630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Romain Bouis & Mr. Romain A Duval & Johannes Eugster, 2016. "Product Market Deregulation and Growth: New Country-Industry-Level Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2016/114, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 20501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Alberto Alesina & Omar Barbiero & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Matteo Paradisi, 2017. "The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 23385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller, 2016. "The performativity of potential output: Pro-cyclicality and path dependency in coordinating European fiscal policies," Working Papers Series 50, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    26. Lorenzo Carbonari & Alessio Farcomeni & Filippo Maurici & Giovanni Trovato, 2023. "On the output effect of fiscal consolidation plans: a causal analysis," Working Paper series 23-18, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
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    162. Melinda Fremerey & Andreas Lichter & Max Löffler, 2022. "Fiscal and Economic Effects of Local Austerity," CESifo Working Paper Series 9800, CESifo.
    163. Sangyup Choi & Gabriele Ciminelli & Davide Furceri, 2022. "Is Domestic Uncertainty a Local Pull Factor Driving Foreign Capital Inflows? New Cross-Country Evidence," CAMA Working Papers 2022-64, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    164. Nicoletta Batini & Mr. Luc Eyraud & Miss Anke Weber, 2014. "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 2014/093, International Monetary Fund.
    165. João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "Promised Fiscal Expansions and Politics: A European Union Assessment," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 84-116, March.
    166. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2021. "Monetary Policy and the Top 1%: Evidence from a Century of Modern Economic History," Post-Print hal-03513433, HAL.
    167. C Alexiou & J G Nellis, 2016. "A post-mortem of austerity: the Greek experience," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(2), pages 1-32, September.
    168. Yuwen Dai, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Financial Sustainability in a Two-State Open Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-12, April.
    169. Romain Duval & Davide Furceri, 2018. "The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 31-69, March.
    170. Adam, Antonis & Tsarsitalidou, Sofia, 2023. "Be my guest: the effect of foreign policy visits to the USA on FDI," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119368, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    171. Concepción Foronda-Robles & Luis Galindo-Pérez-de-Azpillaga, 2016. "From initial dissemination to consolidated impact: the concept of crisis in the field of tourism," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 109(1), pages 261-281, October.
    172. Davide Furceri & Swarnali A Hannan & Jonathan D Ostry & Andrew K Rose, 2022. "The Macroeconomy After Tariffs," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(2), pages 361-381.
    173. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Beltrán, Paula & Grinberg, Federico & Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso, 2023. "The macro-financial effects of international bank lending on emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    174. Simona Malovana & Jan Janku & Martin Hodula, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy and Income Inequality: The Trade-off Between Crisis Prevention and Credit Redistribution," Working Papers 2023/3, Czech National Bank.
    175. Gupta, Sanjeev & Jalles, João Tovar, 2022. "Do tax reforms affect income distribution? Evidence from developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    176. Cyrille Lenoël & Corrado Macchiarelli & Garry Young, 2023. "Greece 2010–18: What Could Have Been Done Differently?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 281-315, April.
    177. Adam, Antonis & Tsarsitalidou, Sofia, 2019. "Serving two masters: The effect of state religion on fiscal capacity," MPRA Paper 101857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    178. Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "Household credit in Asia-Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial systems and the real economy, volume 91, pages 129-144, Bank for International Settlements.
    179. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    180. Kodjovi M. Eklou & Mamour Fall, 2020. "The (Subjective) Well-Being Cost of Fiscal Policy Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2020/005, International Monetary Fund.
    181. Rother, Philipp & Cugnasca, Alessandro, 2015. "Fiscal multipliers during consolidation: evidence from the European Union," Working Paper Series 1863, European Central Bank.
    182. George Kapetanios & Panagiotis Koutroumpis & Christopher Tsoukis, 2022. "Expansionary and contractionary fiscal multipliers in the U.S," Working Papers 939, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    183. Saishuang Wu & Donglan Zhang & Xinyue Li & Jin Zhao & Xiaoning Sun & Lu Shi & Yuping Mao & Yunting Zhang & Fan Jiang, 2022. "Siblings and Early Childhood Development: Evidence from a Population-Based Cohort in Preschoolers from Shanghai," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-12, May.
    184. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    185. Kopecky, Joseph, 2022. "The age for austerity? Population age structure and fiscal consolidation multipliers," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    186. Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Sukaj, Rubena, 2021. "Identifying external debt shocks in low- and middle-income countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    187. Steven M. Fazzari & James Morley & Irina B. Panovska, 2017. "When Do Discretionary Changes in Government Spending or Taxes Have Larger Effects?," Discussion Papers 2017-04, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    188. Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Patrycja Klusak & Kamiar Mohaddes & Ulrich Volz & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2021. "Climate Change and Fiscal Responsibility: Risks and Opportunities," Working Papers 008, The Productivity Institute.
    189. Nathaniel P. S. Cook & Jason C. Jones, 2021. "The African Growth and Opportunity Act and growth in sub‐Saharan Africa: A local projection approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 234-261, January.
    190. Kuruc, Kevin, 2022. "Are IMF rescue packages effective? A synthetic control analysis of macroeconomic crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 38-53.
    191. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 167-174, May.
    192. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.
    193. Zheng, Huanhuan, 2023. "Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    194. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2021. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    195. Konstantinou, Panagiotis Th. & Partheniou, Andromachi, 2021. "The Effects of Government Spending Over the Business Cycle: A Disaggregated Analysis for OECD and Non-OECD Countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 809-822.
    196. Markus Brueckner & Gabriele Ciminelli & Norman Loayza, 2024. "External shocks and labor market reforms in autocracies and democracies: evidence from oil price windfalls," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2023-696, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    197. Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2020. "When does public debt impair economic growth? A literature review in search of a theory," DEM Working Papers 2020/7, Department of Economics and Management.
    198. Komarek, Timothy M. & Wagner, Gary A., 2020. "The distributional effects of job loss from fiscal consolidation: Evidence from the Budget Control Act of 2011," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    199. André Diniz, 2018. "Effects of Fiscal Consolidations in Latin America," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 694-731, December.
    200. Joseph Kopecky, 2024. "A Match Made in Maastricht: Estimating The Treatment Effect of the Euro On Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 159-187, February.
    201. Manos Matsaganis & Chrysa Leventi, 2014. "Distributive Effects of the Crisis and Austerity in Seven EU Countries," ImPRovE Working Papers 14/04, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    202. Ciminelli, Gabriele & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2022. "The effects of U.S. monetary policy on international mutual fund investment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    203. Francesca Caselli & Agustin Roitman, 2016. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2016/001, International Monetary Fund.
    204. Georgios Georgantas & Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2022. "The short-run effects of fiscal adjustment in OECD countries," Working Papers 308, Bank of Greece.
    205. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2016. "The Great Mortgaging," 2016 Meeting Papers 185, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    206. Sonya Georgieva, 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria and Central and Eastern Europe Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 131-167.
    207. Bruno Bonizzi, 2017. "International financialisation, developing countries and the contradictions of privatised Keynesianism," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 21-40, January.
    208. Viral V. Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2020. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," NBER Working Papers 27537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    209. Dimitris Mokas & Massimo Giuliodori, 2021. "Effects of LTV announcements in EU economies," Working Papers 704, DNB.
    210. Sturn, Simon & Epstein, Gerald, 2021. "How much should we trust five-year averaging to purge business cycle effects? A reassessment of the finance-growth and capital accumulation-unemployment nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 242-256.
    211. Silvana Tenreyro & Tiloka de Silva, 2021. "Climate-Change Pledges, Actions and Outcomes," Discussion Papers 2118, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    212. Angrick, Stefan & Nemoto, Naoko, 2018. "Breaking Par: Short-Term Determinants of Yen-Dollar Swap Deviations," ADBI Working Papers 859, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    213. Mr. Tamon Asonuma & Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Akira Sasahara, 2016. "Trade Costs of Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Does a Market-Friendly Approach Improve the Outcome?," IMF Working Papers 2016/222, International Monetary Fund.
    214. Philipp Heimberger, 2016. "Das "strukturelle Defizit" in der österreichischen Budgetpolitik: Berechnungsprobleme, Revisionen und wirtschaftspolitische Relevanz," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 42(3), pages 451-463.
    215. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2017. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: follow-up, multipliers and confidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    216. Aymeric Ortmans & Fabien Tripier, 2020. "COVID-Induced Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area: When Did the ECB Stop the Contagion?," Working Papers 2020-11, CEPII research center.
    217. Yang Zhou, 2022. "The Effects of Capital Controls on Housing Prices," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-29, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    218. Maarten De Ridder & Simona Hannon & Damjan Pfajfar, 2020. "The Multiplier Effect of Education Expenditure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    219. Esin Serin & Nicholas Stern & Anna Valero & John Van Reenen & Bob Ward & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2024. "Boosting growth and productivity in the United Kingdom through investments in the sustainable economy," CEP Reports 43, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    220. Kihiu, Evelyne Nyathira & Amuakwa-Mensah, Franklin, 2021. "Agricultural market access and dietary diversity in Kenya: Gender considerations towards improved household nutritional outcomes," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    221. Mr. Romain A Duval & Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "Labor and Product Market Reforms and External Imbalances: Evidence from Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2021/054, International Monetary Fund.
    222. Santos, Mariana, 2020. "The impact of labor income tax progressivity on the fiscal multipliers in the context of fiscal consolidation programs," MPRA Paper 98736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    223. Domenico Ferraro & Soroush Ghazi & Pietro F Peretto, 2023. "Labour Taxes, Market Size and Productivity Growth," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(654), pages 2210-2250.
    224. Marrazzo, Marco & Terzi, Alessio, 2017. "Structural reform waves and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2111, European Central Bank.
    225. François Geerolf & Thomas Grjebine, 2018. "Property Tax Shocks and Macroeconomics," Working Papers 2018-03, CEPII research center.
    226. Kaehler, Juergen & Weber, Christoph S., 2023. "Inflation in the aftermath of financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    227. Klein, Mathias, 2016. "Austerity and Private Debt," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145681, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    228. José Antonio Ocampo-Gaviria & Carlos Eduardo Caballero Argáez & María del Pilar Esguerra-Umaña & Miguel Urrutia-Montoya & Antonio Hernández-Gamarra, 2023. "Ensayos de historia económica. Cien años del Banco de la República," Books, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 2023-isbn:9789586644730 edited by Luis I.Jácome & Samuel Pienknagura & Leonardo Villar Gómez & Esguerra Umaña Pilar, July.
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    231. Wang, Lipeng & Zhang, Mengyu & Verousis, Thanos, 2021. "The road to economic recovery: Pandemics and innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    232. Destefanis, Sergio & Rehman, Naqeeb Ur, 2023. "Investment, innovation activities and employment across European regions," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 474-490.
    233. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Andrea Deghi & Mitsuru Katagiri & Mr. Sohaib Shahid & Nico Valckx, 2020. "Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2020/011, International Monetary Fund.
    234. Cafora, Alfonso & Romano, Antonio Angelo & Ronghi, Monica & Giuseppe, Scandurra, 2017. "Substituting fossil energy sources: the role of the climate funds and effects on the economic growth," MPRA Paper 82373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    235. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2023. "State-dependent effects of the unconventional monetary policy in stock markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

  28. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2013. "Shocks and Adjustments," Working Paper Series 2013-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2017. "On The Interaction Between Economic Growth And Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 982-1022, June.
    2. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," NBER Working Papers 23543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Daly, Mary C. & Fernald, John G. & Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2014. "Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 228, pages 58-64, May.
    4. Ms. Elva Bova & Ms. Christina Kolerus & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2014. "A Fiscal Job? An Analysis of Fiscal Policy and the Labor Market," IMF Working Papers 2014/216, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Claudia Foroni & Francesco Furlanetto, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun’s Law," Working Paper 2022/4, Norges Bank.
    6. Robert Anderton & Boele Bonthuis, 2015. "Downward Wage Rigidities in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 2015-09, University of Nottingham, GEP.

  29. Òscar Jordà & Malte Knuppel & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," Working Paper Series 2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Kung, Ko-Lun & MacMinn, Richard D. & Kuo, Weiyu & Tsai, Chenghsien Jason, 2022. "Multi-population mortality modeling: When the data is too much and not enough," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 41-55.
    2. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    3. David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2020. "Analyzing Differences between Scenarios," Economics Papers 2020-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    4. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    7. Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased," Discussion Papers 40/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Dimitris N. Politis & Anders Rahbek & Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2015. "Recent developments in bootstrap methods for dependent data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 352-376, May.
    9. Diego Fresoli, 2022. "Bootstrap VAR forecasts: The effect of model uncertainties," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 279-293, March.
    10. Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

  30. Oscar Jorda & Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor, 2012. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles and Crises," Working Papers 172, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Binici, Mahir & Köksal, Bülent & Orman, Cüneyt, 2012. "Stock return comovement and systemic risk in the Turkish banking system," MPRA Paper 38663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    3. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    4. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    5. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 210-221, December.
    6. Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Deflation and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015-25, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    7. Schularick, Moritz, 2012. "Public debt and financial crises in the twentieth century," Discussion Papers 2012/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    8. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa, 2022. "How did house and stock prices respond to different crisis episodes since the 1870s?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    9. Frauke Schleer & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Financial Sector and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: Non-linearities Reconsidered," SCEPA working paper series. 2014-5, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    10. Ignacio Lozano & Alexander Guarín, 2014. "Fragilidad Bancaria en Colombia: Un Análisis Basado en las Hojas de Balance," Borradores de Economia 813, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "External Imbalances and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 18606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Caroline Mehigan, 2016. "Bilateral Adjustment of Bank Assets: Boom and Bust," Trinity Economics Papers tep0616, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    13. R. Barrell & D. Karim & C. Macchiarelli, 2020. "Towards an understanding of credit cycles: do all credit booms cause crises?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(10), pages 978-993, July.
    14. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Cross of Euros," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 167-192, Summer.
    15. Villa, Stefania, 2013. "Financial frictions in the euro area: a Bayesian assessment," Working Paper Series 1521, European Central Bank.
    16. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types, and Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 9329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Gurnain Pasricha, 2017. "Policy Rules for Capital Controls," Staff Working Papers 17-42, Bank of Canada.
    18. Asian Development Bank Institute, 2015. "Asian Development Outlook 2015 Financing Asia’s Future Growth," Working Papers id:6666, eSocialSciences.
    19. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms; Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ignacio Lozano & Alexander Guarin, 2014. "Banking fragility in Colombia: An empirical analysis based on balance sheets," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(75), pages 48-63, December.
    21. Guste Santini, 2013. "Promocija knjige prof. dr. sc. Dragoljuba Stojanova: Ekonomska kriza i kriza ekonomske znanosti," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 19(2), pages 383-386.
    22. Cukierman, Alex, 2013. "Monetary policy and institutions before, during, and after the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 373-384.
    23. Sumru Altug & Fabio Canova, 2012. "Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?," Working Papers 627, Barcelona School of Economics.
    24. Lozej, Matija & Onorante, Luca & Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2018. "Countercyclical capital regulation in a small open economy DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2144, European Central Bank.
    25. William R. White, 2014. "The Prudential Regulation of Financial Institutions: Why Regulatory Responses to the Crisis Might Not Prove Sufficient," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1108, OECD Publishing.
    26. Carlos Canizares Martinez, 2023. "Leaning against housing booms fueled by credit," Working Papers 513, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    27. TRENCA Ioan & MUTU Simon & COROVEI Emilia, 2014. "Improving Ews For Banking Crises: Roc And Auroc Analysis," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 66(3), pages 106-118.
    28. John C. Williams, 2012. "The economic outlook and monetary policy," Speech 100, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    29. Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2012. "The impact of commercial real estate on the financial sector, its tracking by central banks and some recommendations for the macro-financial stability policy of central banks," MPRA Paper 41059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Nonfinancial sectors debt and the U.S. great moderation," Research Report 14030-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    31. Philip Lane & Peter McQuade, 2013. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp428, IIIS.
    32. Nicholas Oulton & María Sebastiá-Barriel, 2013. "Long and Short-Term Effects of the Financial Crisis on Labour Productivity, Capital and Output," CEP Discussion Papers dp1185, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    33. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    34. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott & Tamura, Robert, 2013. "Recessions, growth and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-40.
    35. Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2014. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 98-117, February.
    36. Leroi Raputsoane, 2014. "Disaggregated Credit Extension and Financial Distress in South Africa," Working Papers 435, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    37. Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Financial Frictions In The Euro Area And The United States: A Bayesian Assessment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 1313-1340, July.
    38. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2013. "Debt and the U.S. Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 47399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Pagano, Marco, 2014. "Dealing with financial crises: How much help from research?," CFS Working Paper Series 481, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    40. Percic Stanislav & Apostoaie Constantin-Marius & Chirlesan Dan, 2013. "A Tale Of Two Cycles In Developing And Advanced Economies: A Country Case Study Comparison," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 440-450, December.
    41. A. Bruggeman & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2013. "Size and dynamics of debt positions in Belgium and in the euro area," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 57-77, June.
    42. Xiaochun Jiang & Wei Sun & Peng Su & Ting Wang, 2019. "The Synergy of Financial Volatility between China and the United States and the Risk Conduction Paths," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-22, August.
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    44. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola & Volker Ziemann, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1003, OECD Publishing.
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    2. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2023. "The effects of fiscal institutions on fiscal adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers' loss function and the evaluation of early warning systems," Working Paper Series 1509, European Central Bank.
    4. Buckmann, Marcus & Gallego Marquez, Paula & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Kapadia, Sujit & Rismanchi, Katie, 2023. "The more the merrier? Evidence on the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 20501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
    7. Taylor, Alan M. & Davis, Josh, 2019. "The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 14115, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Felipe Benguria & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 509-526, December.
    9. Bjorn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Paul Wachtel, 2018. "When to Lean Against the Wind," Working Papers 18-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André K. & Herstad, Eyo I., 2019. "Residential investment and recession predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1790-1799.
    11. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Working Paper Series 2015-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2014. "The time for austerity: Estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy," SAFE Working Paper Series 79, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    13. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Martin, Fernando Eguren & Thwaites, Gregory, 2017. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86166, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Çakmaklı, Cem & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 650-668.
    15. Maas, Benedikt, 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting US recessions: Evidence from the Super Learner," MPRA Paper 96408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    17. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar, 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," CEPR Discussion Papers 7568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Kirschenmann, Karolin & Malinen, Tuomas & Nyberg, Henri, 2016. "The risk of financial crises: Is there a role for income inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 161-180.
    19. Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie & Mack, Adrienne, 2015. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 170-185.
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    21. Òscar Jordà, 2013. "Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce," Working Paper Series 2013-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Bruno Spilak & Wolfgang Karl Hardle, 2020. "Tail-risk protection: Machine Learning meets modern Econometrics," Papers 2010.03315, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    23. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    24. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring countercyclical capital buffers: the role of credit aggregates," BIS Working Papers 355, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Karolin Kirschenmann & Tuomas Malinen & Henri Nyberg, 2014. "The risk of financial crises: Is it in real or financial factors?," Working Papers 336, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    26. Detken, Carsten & Weeken, Olaf & Alessi, Lucia & Bonfim, Diana & Boucinha, Miguel & Castro, Christian & Frontczak, Sebastian & Giordana, Gaston & Giese, Julia & Wildmann, Nadya & Kakes, Jan & Klaus, B, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 5, European Systemic Risk Board.
    27. Bowen Fu, 2019. "Bubbles and crises: Replicating the Anundsen et al. (2016) results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 822-826, August.
    28. Buckmann, Marcus & Gallego Marquez, Paula & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Kapadia, Sujit & Rismanchi, Katie, 2021. "The more the merrier? Evidence from the global financial crisis on the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation," Bank of England working papers 905, Bank of England.
    29. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

  32. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011," Working Paper Series 2011-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Pacella, 2020. "Essays on Forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/307579, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2022. "Dating Business Cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700-2010," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-16, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    3. Nezih Guner & Ezgi Kaya & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2014. "Gender gaps in Spain: policies and outcomes over the last three decades," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 61-103, March.
    4. Ricci L. Reber & Sarah J. Pack, 2014. "Methods of Temporal Disaggregation for Estimating Output of the Insurance Industry," BEA Working Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    5. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    6. Miguel Angel Saldarriaga, 2017. "Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters," Working Papers 98, Peruvian Economic Association.
    7. Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie & Mack, Adrienne, 2015. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 170-185.
    8. Jéfferson A. Colombo & Martinho R. Lazzari, 2020. "Same, but different? A state-level chronology of the 2014-2016 Brazilian economic recession and comparisons with the GFC and (early data on) COVID-19," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2445-2456.
    9. Hanna, Alan J., 2018. "A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 93-110.

  33. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Chong, Yanping, 2010. "The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 7902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Karine Gente & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Net Foreign Assets, Productivity and Real Exchange Rates in Constrained Economies," Discussion Papers 2008-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    2. Valerie Mignon & Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou & Florian Morvillier, 2020. "Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database," Post-Print hal-03101442, HAL.
    3. Coen N. Teulings & Nick Zubanov, 2010. "Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-040/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 07 Jul 2011.
    4. BERTINELLI, Luisito & CARDI, Olivier & RESTOUT, Romain, 2020. "Relative Productivity And Search Unemployment In An Open Economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Bellia, Mario & Christensen, Kim & Kolokolov, Aleksey & Pelizzon, Loriana & Renò, Roberto, 2022. "Do designated market makers provide liquidity during a flash crash?," SAFE Working Paper Series 270, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2022.
    6. Joel Hasbrouck, 2021. "Price Discovery in High Resolution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 395-430.
    7. Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Wenlang Zhang & Tommy Wu, 2012. "How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China's Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(6), pages 29-54, November.
    8. Hongjun Li & Zhongjian Lin & Cheng Hsiao, 2015. "Testing purchasing power parity hypothesis: a semiparametric varying coefficient approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 427-438, February.
    9. KAFANDO, Namalguebzanga, 2014. "L'industrialisation de l'Afrique: l'importance des facteurs structurels et du régime de change [The industrialization of Africa: the importance of structural factors and exchange rate regime]," MPRA Paper 68736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Martin Berka & Daan Steenkamp, 2018. "Deviations in real exchange rate levels in the OECD countries and their structural determinants," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Ahmad, Yamin & Craighead, William D., 2011. "Temporal aggregation and purchasing power parity persistence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 817-830, September.
    12. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Global trends in interest rates," Staff Reports 866, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014. "Is the Rand Really Decoupled from Economic Fundamentals?," Working Papers 201439, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2017. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 713, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    15. Afonso Óscar, 2019. "The role of IPRs on prices, wages and growth in a two country directed technical change model," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-27, January.
    16. Nihar Shah, 2022. "Doubly heterogeneous monetary spillovers," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 126-150, August.
    17. Radek Stefanski, 2019. "Boom Goes the Price: Giant Resource Discoveries and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation," 2019 Meeting Papers 101, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Richard Frensch & Achim Schmillen, 2013. "The Penn Effect and Transition: The New EU Member States in International Perspective," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(1), pages 99-119, March.
    19. Robert J. Sonora & Josip Tica, 2014. "Harrod, Balassa, and Samuelson (re)visit Eastern Europe," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, December.
    20. Fischer, Christoph, 2019. "Equilibrium real exchange rate estimates across time and space," Discussion Papers 14/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2020. "Redistributive innovation policy, inequality, and efficiency," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(3), pages 532-554, June.
    22. O’Brien, Thomas J. & Ruiz de Vargas, Santiago, 2019. "Currency indexes and consistent currency misvaluation: Illustrations using Big Mac data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 464-474.
    23. He, Qing & Korhonen, Iikka & Qian, Zongxin, 2021. "Monetary policy transmission with two exchange rates of a single currency: The Chinese experience," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 558-576.
    24. Javier Cravino & Sam Haltenhof, 2020. "Real Exchange Rates, Income per Capita, and Sectoral Input Shares," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 180-194, March.
    25. Bordo, Michael D. & Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Fazio, Giorgio & MacDonald, Ronald, 2017. "The real exchange rate in the long run: Balassa-Samuelson effects reconsidered," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 69-92.
    26. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar, 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," CEPR Discussion Papers 7568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Byrne, David & Foster, Sorcha, 2023. "Transmission of monetary policy: Bank interest rate pass-through in Ireland and the euro area," Economic Letters 3/EL/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    28. Fischer, Christoph & Hossfeld, Oliver, 2014. "A consistent set of multilateral productivity approach-based indicators of price competitiveness," Discussion Papers 10/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    29. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2016. "The Penn Effect Revisited: New Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 70593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2016. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(4), pages 3-25, October-D.
    31. Clemens Struck & Adnan Velic, 2016. "Relative Prices, Non-Homothetic Preferences, and Product Quality," Trinity Economics Papers tep1516, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    32. Grisse, Christian & Scheidegger, Fabian, 2021. "Covariability of real exchange rates and fundamentals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    33. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "The Penn Effect revisited: New evidence from Latin America," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 1364-1379, November.
    34. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    35. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2017. "An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 297-304.
    36. Oscar Afonso & Tiago Sequeira, 2020. "Tradable and nontradable directed technical change," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(36), pages 3874-3897, July.
    37. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2022. "Exploring the Dynamic Relationship between Mobility and the Spread of COVID-19, and the Role of Vaccines," Discussion papers 22011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    38. Dahlquist, Magnus & Pénasse, Julien, 2022. "The missing risk premium in exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 697-715.
    39. Fischer, Christoph & Hossfeld, Oliver, 2014. "A consistent set of multilateral productivity approach-based indicators of price competitiveness – Results for Pacific Rim economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 152-169.
    40. Montecino, Juan Antonio, 2015. "Capital controls and the real exchange rate: Do controls promote disequilibria?," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2015-02, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    41. Taya Dumrongrittikul & Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2014. "The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Perspective," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    42. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Roni Frish, 2016. "The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Term," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.03, Bank of Israel.
    44. Qing, He & Korhonen, Iikka & Zongxin, Qian, 2017. "Monetary policy transmission with two exchange rates and a single currency: The Chinese experience," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    45. Nathaniel P. S. Cook & Jason C. Jones, 2021. "The African Growth and Opportunity Act and growth in sub‐Saharan Africa: A local projection approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 234-261, January.
    46. Wang, Weiguo & Xue, Jing & Du, Chonghua, 2016. "The Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis in the developed and developing countries revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 33-38.
    47. Oscar Afonso & Manuela Magalhães, 2021. "The role of intellectual property rights in a directed technical change model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2142-2176, April.
    48. Chen, Show-Lin & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2020. "Revisiting the persistence of real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

  34. Oscar Jorda & Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge, 2010. "A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding," Working Papers 216, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    3. Andrea Giusto & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Nowcasting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points with Vector Quantization," Working Papers daleconwp2013-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    4. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    5. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    6. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Technology shocks and stock returns: A long-term perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 67-83.
    8. Kroencke, Tim A., 2022. "Recessions and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 61-77.

  35. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Knüppel, Malte & Jordà , Òscar, 2010. "Empirical Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Path-Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 7797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Kung, Ko-Lun & MacMinn, Richard D. & Kuo, Weiyu & Tsai, Chenghsien Jason, 2022. "Multi-population mortality modeling: When the data is too much and not enough," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 41-55.
    2. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
    3. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    4. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    5. Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts Of A Vector Of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition," Working Papers 2014-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2020. "Analyzing Differences between Scenarios," Economics Papers 2020-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    7. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    9. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    10. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O. & Carnow, Warren, 2015. "Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 157-164.
    11. Filippeli, Thomai & Harrison, Richard & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "DSGE-based priors for BVARs and quasi-Bayesian DSGE estimation," Bank of England working papers 716, Bank of England.
    12. Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased," Discussion Papers 40/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    14. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Dimitris N. Politis & Anders Rahbek & Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2015. "Recent developments in bootstrap methods for dependent data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 352-376, May.
    15. Thomai Filippeli, 2011. "Theoretical Priors for BVAR Models & Quasi-Bayesian DSGE Model Estimation," 2011 Meeting Papers 396, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Diego Fresoli, 2022. "Bootstrap VAR forecasts: The effect of model uncertainties," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 279-293, March.
    17. Filippeli, Thomai & Harrison, Richard & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "DSGE-based Priors for BVARs & Quasi-Bayesian DSGE Estimation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/5, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    18. Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2012. "Bootstrap joint prediction regions," ECON - Working Papers 064, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2013.
    19. Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

  36. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," NBER Working Papers 16567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Rakovska & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Martin Hodula, 2020. "The Power of Sentiment: Irrational Beliefs of Households and Consumer Loan Dynamics," Working Papers 2020/10, Czech National Bank.
    2. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2020. "Forecasting with the damped trend model using the structural approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    3. Fabrizio Perri & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2011. "International Recessions," NBER Working Papers 17201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 19506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Valentina Aprigliano & Danilo Liberati, 2019. "Using credit variables to date business cycle and to estimate the probabilities of recession in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1229, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Kalatie, Simo & Laakkonen, Helinä & Tölö, Eero, 2015. "Indicators used in setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland.
    7. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "Financial cycles and co-movements between the real economy, finance and asset price dynamics in large-scale crises," FinMaP-Working Papers 61, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    8. Daniela Marchettini & Mr. Rodolfo Maino, 2015. "Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries: Balancing Financial Stability and Development," IMF Working Papers 2015/190, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," BIS Working Papers 421, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Mikel Bedayo & Gabriel Jiménez & José-Luis Peydró & Raquel Vegas, 2020. "Screening and loan origination time: lending standards, loan defaults and bank failures," Working Papers 2037, Banco de España.
    11. Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers' loss function and the evaluation of early warning systems," Working Paper Series 1509, European Central Bank.
    12. Norman Loayza & Amine Ouazad & Romain Ranciere, 2017. "Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?," Working Papers 114, Peruvian Economic Association.
    13. Guarin, Alexander & Lozano, Ignacio, 2017. "Credit funding and banking fragility: A forecasting model for emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 168-189.
    14. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
    15. Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim Truger &, 2016. "Inequality and sustainability in a healing and fragmented European Union: Chapter 2," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6nf97io14q9, Sciences Po.
    16. Hakan Kara, 2016. "A brief assessment of Turkey's macroprudential policy approach : 2011–2015," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 16(3), pages 85-92.
    17. António R. Antunes & Diana Bonfim & Nuno Monteiro & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2016. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," Working Papers w201613, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Saktinil Roy & David M. Kemme, 2022. "Are capital inflow bonanzas a common precursor to banking crises? A categorical data analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3192-3223, October.
    19. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Schularick, Moritz, 2012. "Public debt and financial crises in the twentieth century," Discussion Papers 2012/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    21. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2020. "Financial crises, macroprudential policy and the reliability of credit-to-GDP gaps," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 567, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    22. A.Hakan KARA, 2012. "Küresel kriz sonrası para politikası," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(315), pages 09-36.
    23. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Yuanhua Feng, 2019. "Growth Trends and Systematic Patterns of Booms and Busts‐Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(1), pages 62-78, February.
    24. Alexander Guarín-López & Ignacio Lozano-Espitia, 2016. "Credit Funding and Banking Fragility: An Empirical Analysis for Emerging Economies," Borradores de Economia 931, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    25. Mariam Camarero & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "External imbalances and recoveries," Working Papers 1912, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    26. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2015. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1250, OECD Publishing.
    27. Bernardo Morais & José‐Luis Peydró & Jessica Roldán‐Peña & Claudia Ruiz‐Ortega, 2019. "The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach‐for‐Yield, and Real Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(1), pages 55-90, February.
    28. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2012. "Causes of banking crises: Deregulation, credit booms and asset bubbles, then and now," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 270-294.
    29. Frédéric Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Frank Smets, 2016. "Booms and Banking Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(2), pages 489-538.
    30. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Héricourt & Samuel Ligonnière, 2021. "Structure of income inequality and household leverage : Cross-country causal evidence," Post-Print halshs-03099741, HAL.
    31. Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "External Imbalances and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 18606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Evangelia Papapetrou & Pinelopi Tsalaporta, 2018. "Macroeconomic outcomes, collective bargaining and intersectoral productivity differentials: a panel approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 765-799, November.
    33. Patty Duijm, 2022. "Foreign‐funded credit: Funding the credit cycle?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 167-182, August.
    34. Nick Gallent & Dan Durrant & Neil May, 2017. "Housing supply, investment demand and money creation: A comment on the drivers of London’s housing crisis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(10), pages 2204-2216, August.
    35. Jakubik, Petr & Moinescu, Bogdan, 2015. "Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 577-591.
    36. José Alves & Rita Pereira, 2017. "The Portuguese Households' Indebtedness," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    37. Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03459084, HAL.
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    4. Pavel Trunin & Sergey Narkevich, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble to Become Regional Reserve Currency," Working Papers 118, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
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    69. Elias, Nikolaos & Smyrnakis, Dimitris & Tzavalis, Elias, 2022. "Predicting future exchange rate changes based on interest rates and holding-period returns differentials net of the forward risk premium effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 694-715.
    70. Michael Melvin & Duncan Shand, 2016. "When Carry Goes Bad: The Magnitude, Causes, and Duration of Currency Carry Unwinds," CESifo Working Paper Series 6210, CESifo.
    71. Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 50-64.
    72. Xue Jiang & Liyan Han & Yang Xu, 2021. "How does skewness perform in the Chinese commodity futures market?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1268-1285, August.
    73. Liu, Yang & Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2022. "Government policy approval and exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 303-331.
    74. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    75. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2014. "Out-of-Sample Evidence on the Returns to Currency Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 9852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    76. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali & Xiaochun Liu, 2015. "Foreign exchange predictability during the financial crisis: implications for carry trade profitability," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    77. Alessio Anzuini & Fabio Fornari, 2012. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Carry Trade Activity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 468-488, August.
    78. Bozhechkova Alexandra & Trunin Pavel & Sinelnikova-Muryleva Elena & Petrova Diana & Chentsov Alexander, 2018. "Building of monetary and currency markets models," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 175P, pages 1-96.
    79. Jiang, Xue & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Currency strategies based on momentum, carry trade and skewness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 121-131.
    80. Mei-Li Shen & Cheng-Feng Lee & Hsiou-Hsiang Liu & Po-Yin Chang & Cheng-Hong Yang, 2021. "An Effective Hybrid Approach for Forecasting Currency Exchange Rates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, March.
    81. Alexandra Janssen & Rahel Studer, 2014. "The Swiss franc's honeymoon," ECON - Working Papers 170, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Jan 2017.
    82. Kimberly Berg & Nelson C. Mark, 2016. "Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns," Staff Working Papers 16-32, Bank of Canada.
    83. Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Funding Flows and Credit in Carry Trade Economies," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Matthew Lilley & Mark Manning (ed.),Liquidity and Funding Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    84. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2020. "Economic momentum and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 152-167.
    85. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 369-376.
    86. Gardberg, Malin, 2018. "Linking Net Foreign Portfolio Debt and Equity to Exchange Rate Movements," Working Paper Series 1246, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    87. Hasselgren, Anton & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Graham, Michael, 2020. "Speculator activity and the cross-asset predictability of FX returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    88. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Two-Country World," NBER Working Papers 17564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    89. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
    90. Mikhail Chernov & Magnus Dahlquist & Lars Lochstoer, 2023. "Pricing Currency Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 693-730, April.
    91. Cho, Dooyeon & Doblas-Madrid, Antonio, 2014. "Trade intensity and purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 194-209.
    92. Bowen Fu, 2019. "Bubbles and crises: Replicating the Anundsen et al. (2016) results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 822-826, August.
    93. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim & Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Foreign exchange predictability and the carry trade: A decomposition approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-211.
    94. André Mollick & Tibebe Assefa, 2013. "Carry-trades on the yen and the Swiss franc: are they different?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(3), pages 402-423, July.
    95. Chernov, Mikhail & Graveline, Jeremy & Zviadadze, Irina, 2012. "Sources of Risk in Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 8745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    96. Robert E. Cumby, 2010. "Comment on "Currency Carry Trades"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 389-394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    97. Grossmann, Axel & Paul, Chris & Simpson, Marc W., 2017. "The impact of exchange rate deviations from relative PPP equilibrium on the U.S. demand for foreign equities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 57-76.
    98. Kornél Kisgergely, 2012. "Is there a carry trade channel of monetary policy in emerging countries?," MNB Working Papers 2012/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    99. Auer, Benjamin R. & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2016. "Do carry trade returns show signs of long memory?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 201-208.
    100. Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.
    101. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

  39. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 131, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Matei Demetrescu & Mu-Chun Wang, 2014. "Incorporating Asymmetric Preferences into Fan Charts and Path Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 287-297, April.
    2. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of Direct and Iterated Multistep Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2017-40, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Grabowski, Daniel & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna, 2018. "Skewness-Adjusted Bootstrap Confidence Intervals and Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181590, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Stefan Bruder, 2014. "Comparing several methods to compute joint prediction regions for path forecasts generated by vector autoregressions," ECON - Working Papers 181, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Dec 2015.
    5. Ricardo J. Bessa & Corinna Möhrlen & Vanessa Fundel & Malte Siefert & Jethro Browell & Sebastian Haglund El Gaidi & Bri-Mathias Hodge & Umit Cali & George Kariniotakis, 2017. "Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-48, September.
    6. Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2020. "Constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of VAR models – A review," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 69-83.
    8. David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2020. "Analyzing Differences between Scenarios," Economics Papers 2020-W05, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    9. Staszewska-Bystrova Anna, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
    10. Jeanne Aslak Petersen & Ditte Heide-Jørgensen & Nina Detlefsen & Trine Boomsma, 2016. "Short-term balancing of supply and demand in an electricity system: forecasting and scheduling," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 238(1), pages 449-473, March.
    11. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Schüssler, Rainer & Trede, Mark, 2016. "Constructing minimum-width confidence bands," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 182-185.
    13. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    14. Christodoulakis, George, 2020. "Estimating the term structure of commodity market preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(3), pages 1146-1163.
    15. Pinto, Rui & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Matos, Manuel A., 2017. "Multi-period flexibility forecast for low voltage prosumers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2251-2263.
    16. Farooq Akram & Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Joint prediction bands for macroeconomic risk management," Working Paper 2016/7, Norges Bank.
    17. Carson, Richard T. & Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Parker, Roger, 2011. "Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 923-941, July.
    18. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    19. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2014. "Confidence Bands for Impulse Responses: Bonferroni versus Wald," CESifo Working Paper Series 4634, CESifo.
    20. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Knüppel, Malte & Jordà , Òscar, 2010. "Empirical Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Path-Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 7797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Tomasz Serafin & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2020. "Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/20/17, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    22. Antoniadis, Anestis & Brossat, Xavier & Cugliari, Jairo & Poggi, Jean-Michel, 2016. "A prediction interval for a function-valued forecast model: Application to load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 939-947.
    23. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Rybiński, Krzysztof, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and natural language processing; The case of Russia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 546-562.
    24. Olga Isengildina‐Massa & Berna Karali & Todd H. Kuethe & Ani L. Katchova, 2021. "Joint Evaluation of the System of USDA's Farm Income Forecasts," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1140-1160, September.
    25. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    26. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Dimitris N. Politis & Anders Rahbek & Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2015. "Recent developments in bootstrap methods for dependent data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 352-376, May.
    27. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2013. "Comparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-031, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    28. Dag Kolsrud, 2015. "A Time‐Simultaneous Prediction Box for a Multivariate Time Series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 675-693, December.
    29. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
    30. Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
    31. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2009. "Multi-step forecasting in emerging economies: An investigation of the South African GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 602-628, July.
    32. Kuethe, Todd H. & Regmi, Hari, 2023. "An Evaluation of Congressional Budget Office’s Baseline Projections of USDA Mandatory Farm and Nutrition Programs," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335690, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    33. Jeanne Aslak Petersen & Ditte Mølgård Heide-Jørgensen & Nina Kildegaard Detlefsen & Trine Krogh Boomsma, 2016. "Short-term balancing of supply and demand in an electricity system: forecasting and scheduling," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 238(1), pages 449-473, March.
    34. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
    35. Paolo Vidoni, 2017. "Improved multivariate prediction regions for Markov process models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 26(1), pages 1-18, March.
    36. Òscar Jordà & Malte Knuppel & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," Working Paper Series 2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    37. Pinson, P. & Girard, R., 2012. "Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 12-20.

  40. Oscar Jorda, 2007. "Inference for Impulse Responses," Working Papers 201, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ryan R. Brady, 2011. "Measuring the diffusion of housing prices across space and over time," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 213-231, March.
    2. Uluc Aysun & Ryan Brady & Adam Honig, 2009. "Financial Frictions and Monetary Transmission Strength: A Cross-Country Analysis," Working papers 2009-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2010.

  41. Òscar Jordà & Sharon Kozicki, 2007. "Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance," Staff Working Papers 07-56, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Alastair R. Hall & Atsushi Inoue & James M Nason & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Information Criteria for Impulse Response Function Matching Estimation of DSGE Models," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 127, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Poghosyan, Karen & Boldea, Otilia, 2013. "Structural versus matching estimation: Transmission mechanisms in Armenia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 136-148.
    3. Yu, Qionglei & McManus, Richard & Yen, Dorothy A. & Li, Xiang (Robert), 2020. "Tourism boycotts and animosity: A study of seven events," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Jordà , Òscar, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Poghosyan, K., 2012. "Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia," Other publications TiSEM ad1a24c3-15e6-4f04-b338-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2011. "An efficient minimum distance estimator for DSGE models," Bank of England working papers 439, Bank of England.
    8. Francisco RUGE-MURCIA, 2014. "Indirect Inference Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamic General Equilibrium Models : With an Application to Asset Pricing under Skewness Risk," Cahiers de recherche 15-2014, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.

  42. Oscar Jorda & Sharon Kozicki, 2006. "Projection Minimum Distance: An Estimator for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," Working Papers 154, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Jorda, 2007. "Joint Inference and Counterfactual experimentation for Impulse Response Functions by Local Projections," Working Papers 107, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

  43. Oscar Jorda, 2003. "Random-Time Aggregation In Partial Ajustment Models," Working Papers 212, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. David Berger & Ricardo Caballero & Eduardo Engel, 2017. "Missing Aggregate Dynamics: On the Slow Convergence of Lumpy Adjustment Models," Working Papers wp446, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    2. Rafal Raciborski, 2008. "Searching for additional sources of inflation persistence : the micro-price panel data approach," Working Paper Research 132, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Stochastic Processes Subject To Time Scale Transformations: An Application To High-Frequency Fx Data," Department of Economics 00-02, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    4. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2006. "The cyclicality of job loss and hiring," Working Papers 06-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "Time-Scale Transformations of Discrete-Time Processes," Working Papers 65, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    6. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "Mixed frequency structural models: estimation, and policy analysis," Working Paper 2013/15, Norges Bank.
    7. Lin, Winston T. & Chen, Yueh H. & Hung, TingShu, 2019. "A partial adjustment valuation approach with stochastic and dynamic speeds of partial adjustment to measuring and evaluating the business value of information technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(2), pages 766-779.
    8. Lin, Winston T. & Kao, Ta-Wei (Daniel), 2014. "The partial adjustment valuation approach with dynamic and variable speeds of adjustment to evaluating and measuring the business value of information technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 208-220.

  44. Kevin Salyer & Oscar Jorda, 2003. "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 274, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    3. Dudley Cooke, 2015. "Online Appendix to "Optimal Monetary Policy with Endogenous Export Participation"," Online Appendices 12-204, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    4. De Paoli, Bianca & Scott, Alasdair & Weeken, Olaf, 2010. "Asset pricing implications of a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2056-2073, October.
    5. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    6. Peter Tillmann, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_004, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    7. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries," Working papers 2006-28, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    8. Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2005. "Are bond markets really overpriced: The case of the US," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 11, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
    9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-328, November.
    10. Oscar Jorda, 2004. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Macroeconomics 0403016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Yang Hu & Yanran Hong & Kai Feng & Jikai Wang, 2023. "Evaluating the Importance of Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Long- and Short-Term Effects and Responses," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(2), pages 264-286, April.
    12. Scharler, Johann, 2008. "Bank lending and the stock market's response to monetary policy shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 425-435.
    13. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 2, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    14. Abayomi T. Onanuga & Sheriffdeen A. Tella & Adenike M. Osoba, 2016. "Uncertainty of Output Gap and Monetary Policy-Making in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(5), pages 227-237, OCTOBER.
    15. Uluc Aysun, 2010. "Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Markets: A Non‐Crisis Setting," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 223-256, August.
    16. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April.
    17. Ono, Sadayuki, 2019. "Term structure dynamics in a monetary economy with learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 730-745.
    18. Dr. Christian Grisse, 2020. "Lower bound uncertainty and long-term interest rates," Working Papers 2020-14, Swiss National Bank.
    19. Alain N. Kabundi & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Jiaxiong Yao, 2022. "How Persistent are Climate-Related Price Shocks? Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2022/207, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Dennis Nsafoah & Apostolos Serletis, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Spreads," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 707-727, July.
    22. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in the European Union and Implications for the objectives of Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series 2008_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2008.

  45. Oscar Jorda & James D. Hamilton, 2003. "A model for the federal funds rate target," Working Papers 176, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Juan J. Dolado & Ramón María‐Dolores, 2002. "Evaluating changes in the Bank of Spain's interest rate target: an alternative approach using marked point processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 159-182, May.
    2. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Thomas Mikosch & Anders Rahbek & Frederik Vilandt, 2022. "The Econometrics of Financial Duration Modeling," Papers 2208.02098, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    3. William H.Greene & Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer, 2013. "The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model with an application to monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 2013_10, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2013.
    4. Clive G. Bowsher, 2005. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2005-W26, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    5. Dunbar, Kwamie & Amin, Abu S., 2012. "Credit risk dynamics in response to changes in the federal funds target: The implication for firm short-term debt," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 141-152.
    6. Michael C. Davis, 2007. "The dynamics of daily retail gasoline prices," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 713-722.
    7. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Christopher J. Neely & Drew B. Winters, 2005. "Year-end seasonality in one-month LIBOR derivatives," Working Papers 2003-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Luc Bauwens & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2007. "Modelling Financial High Frequency Data Using Point Processes," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-066, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Oscar Jorda & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Working Papers 192, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    11. Rebeca I. Muñoz Torres & David Shepherd, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and the Consistency of Monetary Policy Decisions in Mexico: an Empirical Analysis with Discrete Choice Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82, pages 21-46, December.
    12. Nowak, Sylwia & Anderson, Heather M., 2014. "How does public information affect the frequency of trading in airline stocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-38.
    13. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach," Working Papers 313, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    14. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2006. "Nonparametric Density Estimation for Positive Time Series," Cahiers de recherche 06-09, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    15. Liao, Yin, 2013. "The benefit of modeling jumps in realized volatility for risk prediction: Evidence from Chinese mainland stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 25-48.
    16. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2012. "Infrequent Changes of the Policy Target: Robust Optimal Monetary Policy under Ambiguity," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-863, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    17. Eugene F. Fama, 2013. "Does the Fed Control Interest Rates?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 180-199.
    18. Hakan Danis, 2017. "Nonlinearity and asymmetry in the monetary policy reaction function: a partially generalized ordered probit approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(2), pages 161-178, August.
    19. Gurnain Pasricha, 2017. "Policy Rules for Capital Controls," Staff Working Papers 17-42, Bank of Canada.
    20. Sirchenko Andrei, 2012. "A model for ordinal responses with an application to policy interest rate," EERC Working Paper Series 12/13e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    21. Selva Demiralp, 2001. "Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Sönksen, Jantje & Grammig, Joachim, 2021. "Empirical asset pricing with multi-period disaster risk: A simulation-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 805-832.
    23. Baris Kocaarslan & Ugur Soytas, 2021. "The Asymmetric Impact of Funding Liquidity Risk on the Volatility of Stock Portfolios during the COVID-19 Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-12, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Consistent LM-Tests for Linearity Against Compound Smooth Transition Alternatives," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 42, Econometric Society.
    2. Munehisa Kasuya, 2005. "Regime-switching approach to monetary policy effects," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 307-326.
    3. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2005. "The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2515-2522.
    4. Kiliç, Rehim, 2009. "Further on nonlinearity, persistence, and integration properties of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-221, April.
    5. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2004. "Non-linear real exchange rate effects in the UK labour market," International Finance 0411007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working Papers 1209, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    8. Saumitra N. Bhaduri & Ashwin Andrew Samuel, 2009. "International Equity Market Integration," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(1), pages 45-66, April.
    9. Soubarna Pal, 2011. "Productivity Differential and Bilateral Real Exchange Rate between India and US," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 146-155.
    10. Brannolte Cord & Kim Jeong-Ryeol & Hansen Gerd, 1999. "Nonlinear Error Correction Modeling in German Interest Rates / Ein nichtlineares Fehlerkorrekturmodell für die deutsche Zinsstruktur," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 219(3-4), pages 271-283, June.
    11. Dufrénot, Gilles & Lardic, Sandrine & Mathieu, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2008. "Explaining the European exchange rates deviations: Long memory or non-linear adjustment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 207-215, July.
    12. Jawadi Fredj & Koubaa Yousra, 2004. "Threshold Cointegration between Stock Returns : An application of STECM Models," Econometrics 0412001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chapda Nana, Guy & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Larue, Bruno, 2010. "Regional Integration and Dynamic Adjustments: Evidence from a Gross National Product Function for Canada and the United States," MPRA Paper 23389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Escribano, Álvaro & Jordá, Óscar, 1997. "Testing nonlinearity: decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential star models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6216, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    15. Derek Stimel, 2009. "An examination of U.S. Phillips curve nonlinearity and its relationship to the business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 736-748.
    16. Gilles DUFRENOT & Laurent MATHIEU & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchanges rates: some evidence from nonlinear cointegration," International Finance 0309003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Norman, Stephen, 2010. "How well does nonlinear mean reversion solve the PPP puzzle?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 919-937, September.
    18. Mr. Gene L. Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2003. "Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 2003/159, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "LM-Tests for Linearity Against Smooth Transition Alternatives: A Bootstrap Simulation Study," Econometrics 0401004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jul 2004.
    20. Param Silvapulle & Titi Kanti Lestari & Jae Kim, 2004. "Nonlinear Modelling of Purchasing Power Parity in Indonesia," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 316, Econometric Society.
    21. Giorgio Busetti & Matteo Manera, 2003. "STAR-GARCH Models for Stock Market Interactions in the Pacific Basin Region, Japan and US," Working Papers 2003.43, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    22. Emel Siklar & Ilyas Siklar, 2021. "Is There a Change in the Money Demand Stability in Turkey? A Nonlinear Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 7(2), pages 28-42, 06-2021.
    23. Sang-Kuck Chung, 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasts of nonlinear long-memory models of the real exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 355-370.
    24. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2009. "Evidence on the contrarian trading in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1420-1431, November.
    25. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Consistent Model Specification Tests Against Smooth Transition Alternatives," Econometrics 0402004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2005.
    26. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
    27. E Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "Forecasting the Real Exchange Rate using a Long Span of Data. A Rematch: Linear vs Nonlinear," Working Papers 601190, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    28. Álvaro Escribano, 1999. "Predicción y análisis de funciones de exportación e importación en España," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(1), pages 55-94, January.
    29. Samira Haddou, 2011. "Is Tunisian Real Effective Exchange Rate Mean Reverting? Evidence from Nonlinear Models," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 164-178, September.
    30. Alina M. Spiru, 2008. "Inflation Convergence In Central And Eastern European Economies," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 3(4), pages 14-34, Winter.
    31. López Villavicencio, Antonia, 2008. "Nonlinearities or outliers in real exchange rates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 714-730, July.
    32. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 565953, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

  47. Oscar Jorda & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Working Papers 192, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach," Working Papers 313, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    2. Selva Demiralp, 2001. "Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank.
    4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-328, November.
    5. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary Policy in the Information Economy," NBER Working Papers 8674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Oscar Jorda & Kevin Hoover, 2000. "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Working Papers 203, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

  48. Oscar Jorda & Holly Liu & Jeffrey Williams & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "The Announcement Effect: Evidence from Open Market Desk Data," Working Papers 282, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Sahminan Sahminan, 2008. "Effectiveness of monetary policy communication in Indonesia and Thailand," BIS Working Papers 262, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2006. "Anticipation of Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations," MPRA Paper 704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Selva Demiralp, 2001. "Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Open market operations and the federal funds rate," Working Papers 2005-063, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
    6. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 200, European Central Bank.
    7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Transparency, Disclosure, and the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 179-225, March.
    8. Baeriswyl, Romain & Cornand, Camille, 2007. "Can Opacity of a Credible Central Bank Explain Excessive Inflation?," Discussion Papers in Economics 1376, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    9. Adigozalov, Shaig & Huseynov, Salman, 2015. "İnflyasiya hədəflənməsinin əməliyyat çərçivəsi: ölkə təcrübələri AMB üçün nə vəd edir? [Operational framework of Inflation Targeting: what promises do country experiences make to the CBAR?]," MPRA Paper 76349, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2009. "Announcements and the effectiveness of monetary policy: A view from the US prime rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2253-2266, December.
    11. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank.
    12. Andrea Monticini & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def010, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    13. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    14. Paolo Angelini, 2008. "Liquidity And Announcement Effects In The Euro Area," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 67(1), pages 1-20, March.
    15. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary Policy in the Information Economy," NBER Working Papers 8674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Demiralp, Selva & Farley, Dennis, 2005. "Declining required reserves, funds rate volatility, and open market operations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1131-1152, May.
    17. Nautz, Dieter & Schmidt, Sandra, 2008. "Monetary Policy Implementation and the Federal Funds Rate," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-025, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "The execution of monetary policy: a tale of two central banks [‘Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 435-467.
    19. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2010. "Implementation of Monetary Policy: How Do Central Banks Set Interest Rates?," NBER Working Papers 16165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Andreas Schabert, "undated". "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks with Changes in Open Market Operations," Working Papers 2003_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2003.
    22. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2008. "Taking two steps at a time: On the optimal pattern of policy interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 550-570, February.
    23. Matthew Rafferty & Marc Tomljanovich, 2002. "Central bank transparency and market efficiency: An econometric analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 150-161, June.
    24. Anna Bykhovskaya & James A. Duffy, 2022. "The Local to Unity Dynamic Tobit Model," Papers 2210.02599, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    25. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    26. Byungkwon Lim & Hyeon Sook Kim & Jaehwan Park, 2021. "Implicit Interpretation of Indonesian Export Bans on LME Nickel Prices: Evidence from the Announcement Effect," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-7, May.
    27. Hanes, Christopher, 2019. "Explaining the appearance of open-mouth operations in the 1990s U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 682-701.
    28. Aleksandar Murdzhev & Marc Tomljanovich, 2006. "What Color is Alan Greenspan's Tie? How Central Bank Policy Announcements Have Changed Financial Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-593, Fall.
    29. Karel Brůna, 2010. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Liquidity Management of the Czech Banking System," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(3), pages 15-41.

  49. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "Time-Scale Transformations of Discrete-Time Processes," Working Papers 65, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrea, SILVESTRINI, 2005. "Temporal aggregaton of univariate linear time series models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005044, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    2. Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Temporal aggregation of univariate and multivariate time series models: A survey," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 685, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2006. "The cyclicality of job loss and hiring," Working Papers 06-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Kunst, Robert M. & Franses, Philip Hans, 2010. "Asymmetric Time Aggregation and its Potential Benefits for Forecasting Annual Data," Economics Series 252, Institute for Advanced Studies.

  50. Oscar Jorda & Kevin Hoover, 2000. "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Working Papers 203, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Hanson, Michael S., 2006. "Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 407-427.
    2. Kevin Salyer & Oscar Jorda, 2003. "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 274, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    3. Andrew Filardo & Paul Hubert & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403260, HAL.
    4. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2011. "The Effects of Monetary Policy "News" and "Surprises"," Working Papers 101109, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    5. Piyachart Phiromswad, 2014. "Measuring monetary policy with empirically grounded identifying restrictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 681-699, March.
    6. Bachmeier, Lance, 2008. "Monetary policy and the transmission of oil shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1738-1755, December.
    7. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy “News” and “Surprises”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1667-1692, December.
    8. Eduard Hochreiter & Anton Korinek & Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "The potential consequences of alternative exchange rate regimes: A study of three candidate regions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 327-349.
    9. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    10. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    11. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter Vlaar, 2004. "Monetary transmission in Germany: Lessons for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 383-414, May.
    12. Ajisafe, Rufus A. & Adesina, Kehinde E. & Okunade, Solomon O., 2022. "Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Monetary Policy on Output in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(2), March.
    13. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission through the consumption-wealth channel," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 117-133.
    14. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Patricia C. Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism: some answers and further questions," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 15-26.

  51. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2000. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," Working Papers 72, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. James McNeil, 2024. "Modeling interest rate setting at the European Central Bank with bargaining models and counterfactuals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 1037-1053, March.
    2. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    3. Grammig, Joachim & Kehrle, Kerstin, 2008. "A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2370-2396, July.
    4. Yin-wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2006. "Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?," Working Papers 192006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Chiara Scotti, 2006. "A bivariate model of Fed and ECB main policy rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 875, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Anthony Landry, 2005. "The Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch Model in a New Bottle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 455, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2017. "Federal reserve's policy, global equity markets, and the local monetary policy stance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 317-327.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "(How) Do Stock Market Returns React to Monetary Policy? - An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 253/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    9. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

  52. Oscar Jorda, 1998. "Decision Rules for Selecting between Exponential and Logistic STAR," Working Papers 207, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "Exchange Rate Flexibility across Financial Crises," CEPN Working Papers hal-00845254, HAL.
    2. Brannolte Cord & Kim Jeong-Ryeol & Hansen Gerd, 1999. "Nonlinear Error Correction Modeling in German Interest Rates / Ein nichtlineares Fehlerkorrekturmodell für die deutsche Zinsstruktur," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 219(3-4), pages 271-283, June.

  53. Escribano, Álvaro & Jordá, Óscar, 1997. "Testing nonlinearity: decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential star models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6216, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

    Cited by:

    1. Claude Diebolt & Mohamed Chikhi, 2021. "Testing The Weak Form Efficiency Of The French Etf Market With Lstar-Anlstgarch Approach Using A Semiparametric Estimation," Working Papers 09-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    2. Liu, Bing & Yin, Weijun & Chen, Gang & Yao, Jing, 2023. "The threshold effect of climate risk and the non-linear role of climate policy uncertainty on insurance demand: Evidence from OECD countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    3. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2004. "Non-linear real exchange rate effects in the UK labour market," International Finance 0411007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Escribano, Álvaro & Jordá, Óscar, 1997. "Improved testing and specification of smooth transition regression models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6218, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    5. Jean-François Verne, 2021. "Smooth Threshold Autoregressive models and Markov process: An application to the Lebanese GDP growth rate," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 13(3), pages 71-88, September.
    6. Ahmad, Yamin & Craighead, William D., 2011. "Temporal aggregation and purchasing power parity persistence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 817-830, September.
    7. Yamin Ahmad & Stuart Glosser, 2007. "Searching for Nonlinearities in Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 09-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2009.
    8. Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Does military spending nonlinearly affect economic growth in South Africa?," MPRA Paper 69730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Zhenxi Chen & Stefan Reitz, 2020. "Dynamics of the European sovereign bonds and the identification of crisis periods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2761-2781, June.
    10. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Nonlinearities in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Role of Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9544, CESifo.
    11. Ordóñez, Javier & Sala, Hector & Silva, José I., 2010. "Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," IZA Discussion Papers 5096, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2007. "Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries," Working Papers 2007-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Franchi, Massimo & Ordóñez, Javier, 2011. "Multiple equilibria in Spanish unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-80, February.
    14. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Sie-Hoe, 2002. "Forecasting performance of Logistic STAR exchange rate model: The original and reparameterised versions," MPRA Paper 511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2016. "The nonlinear nature of country risk and its implications for DSGE models," NBP Working Papers 250, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    16. Samuel S Jibao & Niek Schoeman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2010. "Fiscal Regime Changes and the Sustainability of Fiscal Imbalance in South Africa: A Smooth Transition Error-Correction Approach," Working Papers 201023, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Jacek Kotłowski & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2016. "The nonlinear nature of country risk," EcoMod2016 9416, EcoMod.
    18. Ordonez, Javier, 2003. "Stability and non-linear dynamics in the broad demand for money in Spain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 139-146, January.
    19. Kumawat, Lokendra & Bhanumurthy, N. R., 2016. "Regime Shifts in India's Monetary Policy Response Function," Working Papers 16/177, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    20. Jan Hagemejer & Aleksandra Hałka & Jacek Kotłowski, 2020. "Global value chains and exchange rate pass-through: the role of non-linearities," NBP Working Papers 324, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    21. Escribano, Álvaro & Torrado, María, 2017. "Nonlinear and asymmetric pricing behaviour in the Spanish gasoline market," UC3M Working papers. Economics 24984, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    22. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2008. "An overview on various ways of bootstrap methods," MPRA Paper 7163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013. "Volatility and persistence of simulated DSGE real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 38-41.
    24. Phiri, Andrew, 2015. "Examining asymmetric effects in the South African Philips curve: Evidence from logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models," MPRA Paper 64487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2021. "Testing for UIP: Nonlinearities, Monetary Announcements and Interest Rate Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9027, CESifo.
    26. Derek Stimel, 2010. "Choice of Aggregate Demand Proxy and its Affect on Phillips Curve Nonlinearity: U.S. Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 543-557.
    27. Escribano, Álvaro & Wang, Dandan, 2021. "Mixed random forest, cointegration, and forecasting gasoline prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1442-1462.
    28. Sahin, Afsin, 2013. "Estimating Money Demand Function by a Smooth Transition Regression Model: An Evidence for Turkey," MPRA Paper 46851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Testing for UIP-Type Relationships: Nonlinearities, Monetary Announcements and Interest Rate Expectations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 705-749, September.
    30. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Jv, Yue-Qi, 2022. "A smooth difference-in-differences model for assessing gradual policy effects: Revisiting the impact of banking deregulation on income distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    31. Konstantin A., Kholodilin, 2003. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turns of the Japanese Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    32. Escribano, A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Nonlinearities and outliers: robust specification of STAR models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9832, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

Articles

  1. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2022. "Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4561-4586.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Òscar Jordà & Celeste Liu & Fernanda Nechio & Fabián Rivera-Reyes, 2022. "Wage Growth When Inflation Is High," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(25), pages 1-6, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Adiah Bailey & Victor Hernandez Martinez, 2023. "The Effect of Higher Financing Costs on Job Openings and Online Job Postings," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(09), pages 1-7, May.
    2. Gödl, Maximilian & Gödl-Hanisch, Isabel, 2023. "Wage Setting in Times of High and Low Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277641, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Bank of Korea, 2023. "Labour markets and inflation," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation and labour markets, volume 127, pages 195-202, Bank for International Settlements.

  5. Òscar Jordà & Celeste Liu & Fernanda Nechio & Fabián Rivera-Reyes, 2022. "Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(07), pages 1-06, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Reuven Glick & Sylvain Leduc & Mollie Pepper, 2022. "Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(21), pages 1-6, August.
    3. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Working Papers 23-19, Bank of Canada.

  6. Òscar Jordà & Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2021. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 260-286.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2020. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 22-40.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2019. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 109-150, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2019. "Riders on the Storm," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Òscar Jordà & Chitra Marti & Fernanda Nechio & Eric Tallman, 2019. "Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Christian Pfister, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policies: A Stock-Taking Exercise," Working Papers hal-04159708, HAL.
    3. Pattanaik, Sitikantha & Muduli, Silu & Ray, Soumyajit, 2020. "Inflation expectations of households: do they influence wage-price dynamics in India?," MPRA Paper 103685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Moretti, Laura & Onorante, Luca & Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Phillips curves in the euro area," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Byron Botha & Lauren Kuhn & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa," Working Papers 10211, South African Reserve Bank.

  11. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Òscar Jordà & Chitra Marti & Fernanda Nechio & Eric Tallman, 2019. "Why Is Inflation Low Globally?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Mary C. Daly, 2023. "Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(08), pages 1-8, March.
    2. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe, 2022. "Debt policies in the aftermath of COVID-19 — The SGP’s debt benchmark revisited," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe, 2020. "Debt rule design in theory and practice: the SGP’s debt benchmark revisited," Working Paper Series 2379, European Central Bank.
    4. Lahlou, Kamal & Bennouna , Hicham, 2022. "Contributions des facteurs domestiques et externes à la dynamique de l’inflation au Maroc," Document de travail 2022-1, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    5. Giacomo Mangiante, 2022. "Demographic Trends and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.

  13. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2018. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 371-387, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 219-255, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Sovereigns Versus Banks: Credit, Crises, And Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-79, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Caspi, Itamar & Graham, Meital, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in stock markets with irregular dividend distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 89-94.

  19. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Interest rates and house prices: pill or poison?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Mary C. Daly, 2020. "2020 Lessons, 2021 Priorities," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2020(37), pages 01-08, December.

  21. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Early Elias & Helen Irvin & Òscar Jordà, 2014. "Monetary policy when the spyglass is smudged," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot, 2023. "A single monetary policy for heterogeneous labour markets: the case of the euro area," Working Papers w202301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Mikhail V. Oet & Kalle Lyytinen, 2017. "Does Financial Stability Matter to the Fed in Setting US Monetary Policy?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 389-432.

  23. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law," Working Papers 2015-29, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Natsuki Arai, 2016. "Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 1019-1049, August.
    3. Bande, Roberto & Martín-Román, Ángel, 2018. "Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015)," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 41, pages 137-165.
    4. John G. Fernald, 2014. "Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2014-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Early Elias & Helen Irvin & Òscar Jordà, 2014. "Monetary policy when the spyglass is smudged," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Ms. Elva Bova & Ms. Christina Kolerus & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2014. "A Fiscal Job? An Analysis of Fiscal Policy and the Labor Market," IMF Working Papers 2014/216, International Monetary Fund.
    7. John G. Fernald & J. Christina Wang, 2015. "Why has the cyclicality of productivity changed?: what does it mean?," Current Policy Perspectives 15-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Milen V. Velev, 2014. "A Research on the Relationship between the Real Aggregate Output and the Unemployment Rate in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 58-91.
    9. Porras, María Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2017. "Self-employment and Okun’s Law relationship: the Spanish case," GLO Discussion Paper Series 157, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. Claudia Foroni & Francesco Furlanetto, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun’s Law," Working Paper 2022/4, Norges Bank.
    11. Durech, Richard & Minea, Alexandru & Mustea, Lavinia & Slusna, Lubica, 2014. "Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 57-65.
    12. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2015. "Producto, desempleo y la Ley de Okun en la República Dominicana [Output, unemployment and Okun’s law in the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 63656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2019. "Self-employment and the Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 253-265.

  24. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Private credit and public debt in financial crises," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Furceri, Davide & Kilic Celik, Sinem & Jalles, João Tovar & Koloskova, Ksenia, 2021. "Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 130-138.
    2. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Mattia Osvaldo Picarelli & Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe, 2019. "Does Public Debt Produce a Crowding Out Effect for Public Investment in the EU?," Working Papers 36, European Stability Mechanism.
    4. Mattia Guerini & Alessio Moneta & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2018. "The janus-faced nature of debt: results from a data-driven cointegrated svar approach," Post-Print hal-03471585, HAL.
    5. Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Sheng & Wu, Zhouheng, 2022. "What drives credit expansion worldwide?——An empirical investigation with long-term cross-country panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 225-242.
    6. Nicoletta Batini & Mr. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2016. "Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 2016/104, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Larissa Batrancea, 2020. "The Influence of Public Debt on Performance: Lesson from Romanian Counties," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 809-814, December.

  25. Jordà, Òscar, 2014. "Assessing the historical role of credit: Business cycles, financial crises and the legacy of Charles S. Peirce," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 729-740.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Daly, Mary C. & Fernald, John G. & Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2014. "Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 228, pages 58-64, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Fushing, Hsieh & Jordà, Òscar & Beisner, Brianne & McCowan, Brenda, 2014. "Computing systemic risk using multiple behavioral and keystone networks: The emergence of a crisis in primate societies and banks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 797-806.

    Cited by:

    1. D’Ignazio, Alessio & Giovannetti, Emanuele, 2015. "Predicting internet commercial connectivity wars: The impact of trust and operators’ asymmetry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1127-1137.
    2. Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.

  28. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2013. "Crises before and after the creation of the Fed," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may6.

    Cited by:

    1. Bilal Bagis, 2017. "Central Banking in the New Era," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(4), pages 197-225.

  30. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2013. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Jordà, Òscar & Knüppel, Malte & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 456-468.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2013. "Labor markets in the global financial crisis," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Daly, Mary C. & Fernald, John G. & Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2014. "Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 228, pages 58-64, May.
    2. Michal Moszynski, 2015. "Institutional Conditioning of the German Labour Market in the Face of the Global Economic Crisis 2008-2009," Working Papers 160/2015, Institute of Economic Research, revised Sep 2015.

  33. Mary C. Daly & Early Elias & Bart Hobijn & Òscar Jordà, 2012. "Will the jobless rate drop take a break?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec17.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Bart Hobijn & Powen She & Ludo Visschers, 2014. "The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the UK (first version)," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 246, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    2. Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Bart Hobijn & Powen She & Ludo Visschers, 2014. "The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K," Working Paper Series 2014-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Leila Bengali & Mary C. Daly & Robert G. Valletta, 2013. "Will labor force participation bounce back?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may13.
    4. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Robert Hall, 2017. "Changes in Labor Market Participation across the Household Income Distribution," 2017 Meeting Papers 1640, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  34. Yanping Chong & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates And Their Long‐Run Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 609-634, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 357-388.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Òscar Jordà & Sharon Kozicki, 2011. "Estimation And Inference By The Method Of Projection Minimum Distance: An Application To The New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 461-487, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrei S. Gonçalves, 2021. "Reinvestment Risk and the Equity Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2153-2197, October.
    2. Yanping Chong & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates And Their Long‐Run Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 609-634, May.
    3. Amaze Lusompa, 2021. "Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency," Research Working Paper RWP 21-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    5. Ke-Li Xu, 2023. "Local Projection Based Inference under General Conditions," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-001 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    6. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2020. "Estimating nonlinear dynamic equilibrium models by matching impulse responses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    7. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
    8. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    9. Giraitis, Liudas & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2014. "Estimating time-varying DSGE models using minimum distance methods," Bank of England working papers 507, Bank of England.
    10. Ryan R. Brady, 2021. "Direct Forecasting for Applied Regional Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 67, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.

  38. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    2. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2017. "Does Business Confidence Matter for Investment?," Carleton Economic Papers 17-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Mar 2019.
    3. Ceyhun Elgin & M. ayhan Köse & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Understanding Informality Abstract:," Working Papers 2021/03, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    4. Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," BIS Working Papers 421, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    7. Thomas M. Mertens, 2022. "Recession Prediction on the Clock," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(36), pages 1-06, December.
    8. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia, 2018. "The financial cycle and recession risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    9. Ceyhun Elgin & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2115, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    10. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Buckmann, Marcus & Gallego Marquez, Paula & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Kapadia, Sujit & Rismanchi, Katie, 2023. "The more the merrier? Evidence on the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    12. Chris McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
    14. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Does the Cost of Private Debt Respond to Monetary Policy? Heteroskedasticity-Based Identification in a Model with Regimes," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19118, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    15. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    16. Scott A. Brave & Jose A. Lopez, 2019. "Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 1-59, March.
    17. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2021. "Which Credit Gap Is Better at Predicting Financial Crises? A Comparison of Univariate Filters," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-31, October.
    18. Marie Bessec, 2019. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed-frequency data," Post-Print hal-02181552, HAL.
    19. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2019. "Tech on the ROC: Export Threshold and Technology Adoption Interacted," LEM Papers Series 2019/38, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    20. Valerio Ercolani & Filippo Natoli, 2020. "Forecasting US recessions: the role of economic uncertainty," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1299, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Nyberg, Henri & Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "International sign predictability of stock returns: The role of the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 323-338.
    22. Ceyhun Elgin & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Understanding informality," CAMA Working Papers 2021-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    23. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    24. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "A tale of two recession-derivative indicators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 925-947, August.
    25. Marius M. Mihai, 2020. "Do credit booms predict US recessions?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 887-910, September.
    26. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2020. "GDP Forecast Accuracy During Recessions," Working Papers 20-06, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    27. Boonman, T.M. & Jacobs, J.P.A.M. & Kuper, G.H., 2013. "Sovereign debt crises in Latin America," Research Report 13016-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    28. Davig, Troy & Hall, Aaron Smalter, 2019. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 848-867.
    29. Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele, 2019. "Structural changes in large economic datasets: A nonparametric homogeneity test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 55-59.
    30. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    31. Lahiri, Kajal & Wang, J. George, 2013. "Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190.
    32. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "What Does Forecaster Disagreement Tell Us about the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2020-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    33. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    34. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
    35. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1246-1258, June.
    36. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Owyang, 2022. "Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1314-1333, November.
    37. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US," Working Papers 22-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    38. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2014. "Nowcasting Using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 19-37.
    39. Harri Ponka, 2017. "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, August.
    40. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," Working Papers hal-04141569, HAL.
    42. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2018. "Confidence Bands for ROC Curves With Serially Dependent Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 115-130, January.
    43. Karsten Müller, 2022. "German forecasters’ narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2373-2415, May.
    44. Sutirtha Bagchi, 2018. "A Tale of Two Cities: An Examination of Medallion Prices in New York and Chicago," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 53(2), pages 295-319, September.
    45. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2021. "Italian firms in times of troubles: Covid-19 pandemic as a test of structural solidity," LEM Papers Series 2021/47, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    46. Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data," Working Papers 201463, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    47. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    48. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
    49. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Amit Kara, 2020. "The Impact of GDP Data Revisions on Identifying and Predicting UK Recessions," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    50. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    51. Lauri Nevasalmi, 2022. "Recession forecasting with high‐dimensional data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 752-764, July.
    52. Ralf Fendel & Nicola Mai & Oliver Mohr, 2021. "Recession probabilities for the Eurozone at the zero lower bound: Challenges to the term spread and rise of alternatives," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1000-1026, September.
    53. Hwang, Youngjin, 2019. "Forecasting recessions with time-varying models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    54. Sander, Magnus, 2018. "Market timing over the business cycle," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 130-145.
    55. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2022. "Dating Business Cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700-2010," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-16, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    56. Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André K. & Herstad, Eyo I., 2019. "Residential investment and recession predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1790-1799.
    57. Heikki Kauppi, 2019. "Recession Prediction with OptimalUse of Leading Indicators," Discussion Papers 125, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    58. Jaehyuk Choi & Desheng Ge & Kyu Ho Kang & Sungbin Sohn, 2021. "Yield Spread Selection in Predicting Recession Probabilities: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2101.09394, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    59. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    60. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    61. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Mawuli Segnon, 2015. "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting U.S. Recessions: A Mixed-Frequency Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Approach," Working Papers 201558, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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  39. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
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  40. Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2015. "Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP," Working Papers No 10/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

  41. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Path forecast evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 635-662.
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  42. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "Future recession risks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug9.

    Cited by:

    1. Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.
    2. David Lang & Kevin J. Lansing, 2010. "Forecasting growth over the next year with a business cycle index," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep27.

  43. Òscar Jordà, 2009. "Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 629-647, August.

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    1. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Stefan Bruder & Michael Wolf, 2017. "Balanced bootstrap joint confidence bands for structural impulse response functions," ECON - Working Papers 246, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Jan 2018.
    3. Grabowski, Daniel & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna, 2018. "Skewness-Adjusted Bootstrap Confidence Intervals and Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181590, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2015. "Making the most of high inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3723-3739, July.
    5. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2020. "Constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of VAR models – A review," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 69-83.
    6. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Jordà , Òscar, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 1-13.
    8. Staszewska-Bystrova Anna, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
    9. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Significance Bands for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org.
    11. Ryan R. Brady & Derek Stimel & Steven Sumner, 2012. "A Time Series Test of the Direct Wealth Effect," Departmental Working Papers 40, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    12. Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2023. "Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    13. Makram El-Shagi & Yishuo Ma, 2021. "Nine blind men and the PBoC," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2021/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    14. Michael Donadelli & Marcus Jüppner & Antonio Paradiso & Christian Schlag, 2019. "Temperature Volatility Risk," Working Papers 2019:05, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    15. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Joint confidence sets for structural impulse responses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 421-432.
    16. Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2011. "An efficient minimum distance estimator for DSGE models," Bank of England working papers 439, Bank of England.
    17. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    18. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lee, Chingnun & Wang, Tzu-Wei, 2011. "A re-examination on dissecting the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 572-586, April.

  44. Galina Hale & Òscar Jordà, 2007. "Do monetary aggregates help forecast inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr13.

    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    2. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 57(3), pages 531-550, September.
    3. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    4. Pär Österholm, 2010. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
    5. Horváth, Roman & Komárek, Luboš & Rozsypal, Filip, 2011. "Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 523-536.
    6. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Narayan, Seema & Cirikisuva, Salote & Naivutu, Revoni, 2023. "A hybrid NKPC inflation model for the small Island state of Fiji," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 873-886.
    8. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    9. Mr. Arto Kovanen, 2011. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in Ghana?," IMF Working Papers 2011/274, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Shahid IQBAL & Maqbool H. SIAL, 2016. "Projections of Inflation Dynamics for Pakistan: GMDH Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 536-559, September.
    11. Mr. Emil Stavrev & Mr. Helge Berger, 2008. "The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2008/166, International Monetary Fund.

  45. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Alan M. & Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz, 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Oliver Hülsewig & Horst Rottmann, 2022. "Unemployment in the Euro Area and Unconventional Monetary Policy Surprises," CESifo Working Paper Series 10091, CESifo.
    3. Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha & Dowling, Michael, 2020. "Effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks on the interdependence between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 150-155.
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  47. Demiralp, Selva & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 387-405, June.

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    23. WANG, Kent & WANG, Shin-Huei & PAN, Zheyao, 2013. "Can federal reserve policy deviation explain response patterns of financial markets over time?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013029, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    24. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 945-954.
    25. Ranaldo, Angelo & Reynard, Samuel, 2013. "Monetary Policy Effects on Long-term Rates and Stock Prices," Working Papers on Finance 1322, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    26. Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "Market anticipation of monetary policy actions and interest rate transmission to US Treasury market rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 545-551.
    27. Paolo Angelini, 2008. "Liquidity And Announcement Effects In The Euro Area," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 67(1), pages 1-20, March.
    28. Coenen, Günter & Ehrmann, Michael & Gaballo, Gaetano & Hoffmann, Peter & Nakov, Anton & Nardelli, Stefano & Persson, Eric & Strasser, Georg, 2017. "Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times," Working Paper Series 2080, European Central Bank.
    29. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 509-541, March.
    30. Ryan R. Brady, 2006. "Credit Cards and Monetary Policy: Are Households still liquidity-constrained?," Departmental Working Papers 12, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    31. Anand, Abhinav & Basu, Sankarshan & Pathak, Jalaj & Thampy, Ashok, 2021. "The impact of sentiment on emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 161-177.
    32. Ivando Silva De Faria & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2011. "Financial Market Reactions To Thebrazilian Central Bank’S Decisions," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 108, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    33. Selva Demiralp & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Asymmetric Response to Monetary Policy Surprises at the Long-End of the Yield Curve," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0914, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    34. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 2, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    35. Selva Demiralp & Sharmila King & Chiara Scotti, 2016. "Does Anyone Listen when Politicians Talk? The Effect of Political Commentaries on Policy Rate Decisions and Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Joaquin Iglesias & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo, 2017. "How do the EM Central Bank talk? A Big Data approach to the Central Bank of Turkey," Working Papers 17/24, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    37. Andreas Schabert, "undated". "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks with Changes in Open Market Operations," Working Papers 2003_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2003.
    38. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2007. "The timing of central bank communication," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 124-145, March.
    39. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & John Jairo León & Luis Fernando Melo., 2008. "Cambios de la Tasa de Política y su Efecto en la Estructura a Plazo de Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 257-291.
    40. Kim, Suk-Joong & Nguyen, Do Quoc Tho, 2008. "The reaction of the Australian financial markets to the interest rate news from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the U.S. Fed," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 378-395, September.
    41. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," KOF Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    42. Rongrong Sun, 2018. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Market Interest Rates Response: Evidence from China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2018/5, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    43. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 488, European Central Bank.
    44. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Can monetary policy influence long-term interest rates?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may20.
    45. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. Le√N-Ledesma, 2007. "A Long-Run Non-Linear Approach to the Fisher Effect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 543-559, March.
    46. Demiralp, Selva & Kara, Hakan & Özlü, Pınar, 2012. "Monetary policy communication in Turkey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 540-556.
    47. Fu, Liang & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2022. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates under China's evolving monetary policy framework," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    48. Su Zhou, 2007. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Eurodollar rates under interest‐rate targeting," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(2), pages 90-102, May.
    49. Amir Kia, 2011. "Developing a Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index: Evidence from the United States," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 16(2), pages 53-80, September.
    50. Rafael Cezar & Maéva Silvestrini, 2018. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the French International Investment Position," Working papers 701, Banque de France.
    51. Scrimgeour, Dean, 2010. "Commodity Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises," Working Papers 2010-04, Department of Economics, Colgate University.

  48. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2004. "Time‐scale transformations of discrete time processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 873-894, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  49. Bergin, Paul R. & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "Measuring monetary policy interdependence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 761-783, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  50. Oscar Jorda & Kevin Salyer, 2003. "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 941-962, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  51. Jordà, Òscar & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2003. "Modeling High-Frequency Foreign Exchange Data Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 618-635, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Herwartz, 2006. "Econometric analysis of high frequency data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 89-104, March.

  52. Selva Demiralp & Òscar Jordà, 2002. "The announcement effect: evidence from open market desk data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 29-48.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  53. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  54. Kevin D. Hoover & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "Measuring systematic monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 113-144.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  55. Álvaro Escribano & Oscar Jordá, 2001. "Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 193-209.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  56. Jorda, Oscar, 1999. "Random-Time Aggregation in Partial Adjustment Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 382-395, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

  1. Paul R. Bergin & Òscar Jordà, 2017. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 14, pages 387-415, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, pages 213-263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2014, pages 2-18, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: Sovereign Debt and Financial Crises, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 357-387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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