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Oscar Jorda

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," NBER Working Papers 20771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    2. Laxisme monétaire, bulles immobilières et instabilité financière
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-12-29 16:54:00
    3. Ladrillos y libros: ¿cuánto daño nos ha hecho el boom de la construcción?
      by Libertad González in Nada Es Gratis on 2015-04-24 11:00:59
  2. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    2. Le grand emprunt hypothécaire
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-09-24 04:21:00
  3. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2015. "Leveraged Bubbles," 2015 Meeting Papers 910, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
      by Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-11-14 19:24:34
    2. Financial Crisis: The Endgame
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-09-03 12:25:40
    3. House Prices at Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-04-29 12:35:08
  4. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Working Paper Series 2014-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Les marchés du travail lors de la Grande Récession
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-05-18 00:55:00
  5. Òscar Jordà & Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," NBER Working Papers 23287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Challenging the Role of Capital Adequacy using Historical Data
      by Banking Blogger in NEP-HIS blog on 2017-06-13 19:08:03
  6. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
      by Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-11-14 19:24:34
    2. Financial Crisis: The Endgame
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-09-03 12:25:40
    3. House Prices at Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-04-29 12:35:08
  7. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Fiscal Policy during high unemployment periods: still a bad idea?
      by sebastianfleitas in NEP-HIS blog on 2013-03-04 19:37:19
    2. Comment s'est comportée la courbe de Beveridge en zone euro ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-02-20 19:29:55
  8. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," NBER Working Papers 24112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Fiscal Sustainability: A Primer
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-07-02 12:02:05
    2. Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-12-02 13:10:33
    3. Fiscal Space Has Limits, Too
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2020-05-31 15:13:38
  9. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 19414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. How to muddy the waters on impact of austerity
      by Mainly Macro in Mainly Macro on 2014-08-01 18:06:00
    2. Austerity in the UK: past, present and future
      by Joel Suss in British Politics and Policy at LSE on 2015-03-11 13:18:49
  10. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Fiscal Sustainability: A Primer
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-07-02 12:02:05
    2. Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-12-02 13:10:33
    3. Fiscal Space Has Limits, Too
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2020-05-31 15:13:38
  11. Yanping Chong & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 15868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. BDSM: il meraviglioso mondo di...
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2013-02-06 04:44:00
  12. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The ABCT making its presence in the maintream literature
      by Nicolas Cachanosky in Punto de Vista Economico on 2013-09-02 08:10:35
    2. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    3. Et si le cycle financier était à l'origine des déséquilibres courants de la zone euro ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-11-06 02:19:00
  13. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," CESifo Working Paper Series 5147, CESifo.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    2. Laxisme monétaire, bulles immobilières et instabilité financière
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-12-29 16:54:00
    3. Ladrillos y libros: ¿cuánto daño nos ha hecho el boom de la construcción?
      by Libertad González in Nada Es Gratis on 2015-04-24 11:00:59
  14. Early Elias & Helen Irvin & Òscar Jordà, 2014. "Monetary policy when the spyglass is smudged," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A Monetary Policy Framework for the Next Recession
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2017-12-11 19:02:11
  15. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2014. "The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 10161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Assessing Housing Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-10-15 11:28:50
    2. Comprendiendo la severidad de las crisis financieras españolas
      by admin in Nada Es Gratis on 2018-05-31 05:01:24
    3. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    4. Laxisme monétaire, bulles immobilières et instabilité financière
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-12-29 16:54:00
  16. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2019. "The Total Risk Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 25653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Ciclos Inmobiliarios y Desigualdad de la Riqueza
      by admin in Nada Es Gratis on 2019-12-16 14:00:30
  17. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Crisis in 1000 words—or less
      by Steve Keen in Steve Keen's Debtwatch on 2012-07-22 11:41:41
    2. Jubilee!
      by steve from virginia in Economic Undertow on 2012-08-02 04:16:47
  18. Òscar Jordà & Noah Kouchekinia & Colton Merrill & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2020. "The Fog of Numbers," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2020(20), pages 1-5, July.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Revisions to employment data during 2020 and 2021 : Reassessing labor market conditions after the 2020 recession
      by ? in FRED blog on 2022-01-24 14:00:00
  19. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 20501, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Assessing Housing Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-10-15 11:28:50
    2. Comprendiendo la severidad de las crisis financieras españolas
      by admin in Nada Es Gratis on 2018-05-31 05:01:24
    3. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
    4. Laxisme monétaire, bulles immobilières et instabilité financière
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-12-29 16:54:00
  20. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2015. "Leveraged Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 10781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
      by Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2016-11-14 19:24:34
    2. Financial Crisis: The Endgame
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-09-03 12:25:40
    3. House Prices at Risk
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-04-29 12:35:08
  21. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 19506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Credit, Crises, and Consequences
      by noreply@blogger.com (Carola Binder) in Quantitative Ease on 2013-10-14 05:02:00
    2. Quels liens entre crédit, instabilité financière et macroéconomie ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-03-28 03:28:18
  22. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Working Paper Series 2013-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. How to muddy the waters on impact of austerity
      by Mainly Macro in Mainly Macro on 2014-08-01 18:06:00
    2. Austerity in the UK: past, present and future
      by Joel Suss in British Politics and Policy at LSE on 2015-03-11 13:18:49

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," Working Paper Series 2020-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Path forecast evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 635-662.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Path forecast evaluation (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions (AEJ:MA 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 19414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy (NBER 2013) in ReplicationWiki ()
  4. Moritz Schularick & Bjorn Richter & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 843, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Bank Capital Redux:Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis (REStud forthcoming) in ReplicationWiki ()
  5. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target (JPE 2002) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Maximilian Grimm & Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability," Working Paper Series 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Sepp, Tim Florian & Israel, Karl-Friedrich & Treitz, Benjamin & Hartl, Tom, 2024. "Monetary policy and the resilience of the German banking system: From Deutsche Bundesbank to ECB," Working Papers 180, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    3. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred & Lund-Thomsen, Frederik, 2023. "Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: a quantile VAR approach," Working Paper Series 2833, European Central Bank.
    4. Sepp, Tim Florian & Israel, Karl-Friedrich & Treitz, Benjamin & Hartl, Tom, 2024. "Monetary policy and bank-type resilience in Germany from 1999 to 2022," Working Papers 181, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    5. Christoph Kaufmann & Jaime Leyva & Manuela Storz, 2025. "Insurance corporations’ balance sheets, financial stability and monetary policy," Working Papers w202502, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem & Krichene, Noureddine, 2023. "Theoretical and Analytical Approach of Financial Stability: Islamic Perspective," MPRA Paper 122963, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Feb 2024.
    7. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommer 2023: Konjunktur tastet sich aus der Krise [German Economy in Summer 2023: Crawling out of the crisis]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Maximilian Grimm, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Bank Funding Stability," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 341, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    9. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), April.
    10. Alberto Botta & Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2023. "Same Old Song: On The Macroeconomic And Distributional Effects Of Leaving A Low Interest Rate Environment," Working Papers 481, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    11. Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian & Huetsch, Leon & Mills, Benjamin & Taylor, Alan M., 2024. "Global natural rates in the long run: Postwar macro trends and the market-implied r∗ in 10 advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    12. Thomas Url, 2023. "Hohe Inflation führt zu Kurswechsel in der Geldpolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 269-281, April.
    13. Gächter, Martin & Hasler, Elias & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Kicking the can down the road: A historical growth-at-risk perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    14. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of ECB’s Asset Purchases. How Excess Reserves Shape Bank Lending," Working Papers of BETA 2023-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

  2. Arindrajit Dube & Daniele Girardi & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences," NBER Working Papers 31184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Andrea Foschi, 2023. "Whatever-It-Takes Policymaking during the Pandemic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin, Diego A. & Romero, Dario A., 2024. "Social distancing and COVID-19 under violence: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Bernini Federico Gastón & Donaldson Paula & Garcia-Lembergman Ezequiel & Juárez Leticia, 2024. "The Financial Channel of Tax Amnesty Policies," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4710, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    4. Todd Morris & Benoit Dostie, 2023. "Graying and staying on the job: The welfare implications of employment protection for older workers," CIRANO Working Papers 2023s-20, CIRANO.
    5. Juanma Castro-Vincenzi & Guarav dup Khanna & Nicolas Morales & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2024. "Weathering the Storm: Supply Chains and Climate Risk," Working Paper 24-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Alexander Rodnyansky & Yannick Timmer & Naoki Yago, 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," CESifo Working Paper Series 10575, CESifo.
    7. Minniti, Antonio & Prettner, Klaus & Venturini, Francesco, 2024. "Unslicing the pie: AI innovation and the labor share in European regions," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 369, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    8. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Deng, Liuchun & Müller, Steffen & Plümpe, Verena & Stegmaier, Jens, 2023. "Robots, occupations, and worker age: A production-unit analysis of employment," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Msefula, Griffin & Hou, Tony Chieh-Tse & Lemesi, Tina, 2024. "Dynamics of legal structure and geopolitical influence on carbon tax in response to green transportation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).
    11. Fabra, Natalia & Gutiérrez, Eduardo & Lacuesta, Aitor & Ramos, Roberto, 2024. "Do renewable energy investments create local jobs?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    12. Ricardo Duque Gabriel, 2022. "The Credit Channel of Public Procurement," GEE Papers 0171, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Nov 2022.
    13. Anish Sugathan & Arpit Shah & Deepak Malghan, 2024. "Washed Away: Industrial Capital, Labor, and Floods," IIMA Working Papers WP 2024-12-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    14. Yechan Park & Yuya Sasaki, 2024. "Matching $\leq$ Hybrid $\leq$ Difference in Differences," Papers 2411.07952, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    15. Britto, Diogo & Rocha, Roberto Hsu & Pinotti, Paolo & Sampaio, Breno, 2024. "Small Children, Big Problems: Childbirth and Crime," IZA Discussion Papers 16910, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Carlos G'oes, 2024. "Trade, Growth, and Product Innovation," Papers 2406.08727, arXiv.org.
    17. Strezhnev, Anton, 2024. "Group-specific linear trends and the triple-differences in time design," SocArXiv dg5ps, Center for Open Science.
    18. Mark Kattenberg & Bas Scheer & Jurre Thiel, 2023. "Causal forests with fixed effects for treatment effect heterogeneity in difference-in-differences," CPB Discussion Paper 452, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Strezhnev, Anton, 2024. "Group-specific linear trends and the triple-differences in time design," SocArXiv dg5ps_v1, Center for Open Science.
    21. Jingyi Tian & Jun Nagayasu, 2023. "Financial Systemic Risk behind Artificial Intelligence:Evidence from China," TUPD Discussion Papers 44, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    22. Masahiro Tanaka, 2025. "Quasi-Bayesian Local Projections: Simultaneous Inference and Extension to the Instrumental Variable Method," Papers 2503.20249, arXiv.org.
    23. Guilherme Amorim & Diogo Britto & Alexandre Fonseca & Breno Sampaio, 2022. "Job Loss, Unemployment Insurance and Health: Evidence from Brazil," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22192, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    24. Cheick Camara, 2023. "Gender Budgeting and Health Spending Efficiency in Indian States: A Staggered Difference-in-Differences Analysis," CERDI Working papers hal-04294262, HAL.
    25. Leek, Lauren Caroline & Bischl, Simeon, 2024. "How Central Bank Independence Shapes Monetary Policy Communication: A Large Language Model Application," SocArXiv yrhka, Center for Open Science.
    26. João Pedro Vieira & Ricardo Dahis & Juliano Assunção, 2023. "The Role of Sanctions and Spillovers in Forest Conservation," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-16, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    27. Leek, Lauren Caroline & Bischl, Simeon, 2024. "How Central Bank Independence Shapes Monetary Policy Communication: A Large Language Model Application," SocArXiv yrhka_v1, Center for Open Science.
    28. Arin, K. Peren & Marti Arnau, Josep & Boduroglu, Elif & Celik, Esref Ugur, 2024. "Shaken, stirred and indebted: Firm-level effects of earthquakes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    29. Madsen, Jakob & Minniti, Antonio & Venturini, Francesco, 2024. "Declining research productivity and income inequality: A centenary perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    30. Breugem, Matthijs & Corvino, Raffaele & Marfè, Roberto & Schönleber, Lorenzo, 2024. "Pandemic tail risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    31. Fang, Francis Haoyu & Vlaicu, Razvan, 2024. "Local Banking Supply and Private Firm Activity: Evidence from Branch Closures," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13645, Inter-American Development Bank.
    32. Ben Knox & Yannick Timmer, 2024. "Stagflationary Stock Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 11236, CESifo.
    33. Cuccu, Liliana & Pontarollo, Nicola, 2024. "Logistic hubs and support for radical-right populism: Evidence from Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    34. Jean-Baptiste Bonnier, 2024. "A Split-Treatment Design," Working Papers 2024-11, CRESE.
    35. Kai Arvai & Ricardo Duque Gabriel, 2024. "Gains from Commitment: The Case for Pegging the Exchange Rate," Working papers 974, Banque de France.
    36. Natalia Emanuel & Emma Harrington, 2023. "Working Remotely? Selection, Treatment, and the Market for Remote Work," Staff Reports 1061, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    37. Ron P. Smith, 2024. "Econometric Aspects of Convergence: A Survey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 701-721, September.
    38. Griller, Stefan & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Financial markets and legal challenges to unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    39. Guerin, Adrian & Najjar, Nouri & Schaufele, Brandon, 2024. "The Surprising Static and Dynamic Effects of Oil and Gas Flaring on Agriculture," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343660, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    40. Matthew Staiger & Giordano Palloni & John Voorheis, 2024. "Neighborhood Revitalization and Residential Sorting," Working Papers 24-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

  3. Atsushi Inoue & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Significance Bands for Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2023-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Uwe Hassler & Marc-Oliver Pohle & Tanja Zahn, 2025. "Simultaneous Inference Bands for Autocorrelations," Papers 2503.18560, arXiv.org.

  4. Òscar Jordà, 2023. "Local Projections for Applied Economics," Working Paper Series 2023-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Ash, Thomas & Nikolaishvili, Giorgi, 2024. "A Replication of "The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe's Carbon Taxes" by Metcalf and Stock (2023)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 167, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    2. Steininger, Lea & Matzner, Anna, 2025. "Monetary policy and the firm-level labor share: a story about capital," Working Paper Series 3024, European Central Bank.
    3. Juan R. Hernández & Mateo Hoyos & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2024. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets under Global Uncertainty," Working Papers DTE 634, CIDE, División de Economía.
    4. Allayioti, Anastasia & Gόrnicka, Lucyna & Holton, Sarah & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2024. "Monetary policy pass-through to consumer prices: evidence from granular price data," Working Paper Series 3003, European Central Bank.
    5. Arisa Chantaraboontha, 2025. "Measuring the Spillovers of US Unconventional Surprises across Monetary Conditions with Local Projections," ISER Discussion Paper 1276, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    6. Matzner, Anna & Steininger, Lea, 2024. "Firms’ heterogeneous (and unintended) investment response to carbon price increases," Working Paper Series 2958, European Central Bank.

  5. Pietro Alessandrini & Òscar Jordà & Fabrizio Venditti, 2023. "Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier," Working Paper Series 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  6. Arindrajit Dube & Daniele Girardi & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences Event Studies," Working Paper Series 2023-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Andrea Foschi, 2023. "Whatever-It-Takes Policymaking during the Pandemic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin, Diego A. & Romero, Dario A., 2024. "Social distancing and COVID-19 under violence: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Bernini Federico Gastón & Donaldson Paula & Garcia-Lembergman Ezequiel & Juárez Leticia, 2024. "The Financial Channel of Tax Amnesty Policies," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4710, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    4. Todd Morris & Benoit Dostie, 2023. "Graying and staying on the job: The welfare implications of employment protection for older workers," CIRANO Working Papers 2023s-20, CIRANO.
    5. Juanma Castro-Vincenzi & Guarav dup Khanna & Nicolas Morales & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2024. "Weathering the Storm: Supply Chains and Climate Risk," Working Paper 24-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Andreas Peichl & Paul Schüle, 2024. "Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 194-222, November.
    7. Alexander Rodnyansky & Yannick Timmer & Naoki Yago, 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," CESifo Working Paper Series 10575, CESifo.
    8. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Deng, Liuchun & Müller, Steffen & Plümpe, Verena & Stegmaier, Jens, 2023. "Robots, occupations, and worker age: A production-unit analysis of employment," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Msefula, Griffin & Hou, Tony Chieh-Tse & Lemesi, Tina, 2024. "Dynamics of legal structure and geopolitical influence on carbon tax in response to green transportation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).
    11. Fabra, Natalia & Gutiérrez, Eduardo & Lacuesta, Aitor & Ramos, Roberto, 2024. "Do renewable energy investments create local jobs?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    12. Ricardo Duque Gabriel, 2022. "The Credit Channel of Public Procurement," GEE Papers 0171, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Nov 2022.
    13. Anish Sugathan & Arpit Shah & Deepak Malghan, 2024. "Washed Away: Industrial Capital, Labor, and Floods," IIMA Working Papers WP 2024-12-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    14. Yechan Park & Yuya Sasaki, 2024. "Matching $\leq$ Hybrid $\leq$ Difference in Differences," Papers 2411.07952, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    15. Britto, Diogo & Rocha, Roberto Hsu & Pinotti, Paolo & Sampaio, Breno, 2024. "Small Children, Big Problems: Childbirth and Crime," IZA Discussion Papers 16910, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Carlos G'oes, 2024. "Trade, Growth, and Product Innovation," Papers 2406.08727, arXiv.org.
    17. Michael D. Bauer & Daniel Huber & Eric Offner & Marlene Renkel & Ole Wilms, 2024. "Corporate Green Pledges," Working Paper Series 2024-36, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Strezhnev, Anton, 2024. "Group-specific linear trends and the triple-differences in time design," SocArXiv dg5ps, Center for Open Science.
    19. Mark Kattenberg & Bas Scheer & Jurre Thiel, 2023. "Causal forests with fixed effects for treatment effect heterogeneity in difference-in-differences," CPB Discussion Paper 452, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    21. Strezhnev, Anton, 2024. "Group-specific linear trends and the triple-differences in time design," SocArXiv dg5ps_v1, Center for Open Science.
    22. Jingyi Tian & Jun Nagayasu, 2023. "Financial Systemic Risk behind Artificial Intelligence:Evidence from China," TUPD Discussion Papers 44, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    23. Masahiro Tanaka, 2025. "Quasi-Bayesian Local Projections: Simultaneous Inference and Extension to the Instrumental Variable Method," Papers 2503.20249, arXiv.org.
    24. Escudero, Veronica & Liepmann, Hannah & Vergara, Damian, 2024. "Directed Search, Wages, and Non-wage Amenities: Evidence from an Online Job Board," IZA Discussion Papers 17211, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    25. Guilherme Amorim & Diogo Britto & Alexandre Fonseca & Breno Sampaio, 2022. "Job Loss, Unemployment Insurance and Health: Evidence from Brazil," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22192, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    26. Cheick Camara, 2023. "Gender Budgeting and Health Spending Efficiency in Indian States: A Staggered Difference-in-Differences Analysis," CERDI Working papers hal-04294262, HAL.
    27. Leek, Lauren Caroline & Bischl, Simeon, 2024. "How Central Bank Independence Shapes Monetary Policy Communication: A Large Language Model Application," SocArXiv yrhka, Center for Open Science.
    28. João Pedro Vieira & Ricardo Dahis & Juliano Assunção, 2023. "The Role of Sanctions and Spillovers in Forest Conservation," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-16, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    29. Leek, Lauren Caroline & Bischl, Simeon, 2024. "How Central Bank Independence Shapes Monetary Policy Communication: A Large Language Model Application," SocArXiv yrhka_v1, Center for Open Science.
    30. Arin, K. Peren & Marti Arnau, Josep & Boduroglu, Elif & Celik, Esref Ugur, 2024. "Shaken, stirred and indebted: Firm-level effects of earthquakes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    31. Madsen, Jakob & Minniti, Antonio & Venturini, Francesco, 2024. "Declining research productivity and income inequality: A centenary perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    32. Breugem, Matthijs & Corvino, Raffaele & Marfè, Roberto & Schönleber, Lorenzo, 2024. "Pandemic tail risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    33. Fang, Francis Haoyu & Vlaicu, Razvan, 2024. "Local Banking Supply and Private Firm Activity: Evidence from Branch Closures," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13645, Inter-American Development Bank.
    34. Ben Knox & Yannick Timmer, 2024. "Stagflationary Stock Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 11236, CESifo.
    35. Cuccu, Liliana & Pontarollo, Nicola, 2024. "Logistic hubs and support for radical-right populism: Evidence from Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    36. Jean-Baptiste Bonnier, 2024. "A Split-Treatment Design," Working Papers 2024-11, CRESE.
    37. Kai Arvai & Ricardo Duque Gabriel, 2024. "Gains from Commitment: The Case for Pegging the Exchange Rate," Working papers 974, Banque de France.
    38. Ron P. Smith, 2024. "Econometric Aspects of Convergence: A Survey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 701-721, September.
    39. Griller, Stefan & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Financial markets and legal challenges to unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    40. Maximilian Mähr, 2025. "Consequences of Affirmative Action: The Impact of Hiring a Female Professor," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_677, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    41. Guerin, Adrian & Najjar, Nouri & Schaufele, Brandon, 2024. "The Surprising Static and Dynamic Effects of Oil and Gas Flaring on Agriculture," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343660, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    42. Matthew Staiger & Giordano Palloni & John Voorheis, 2024. "Neighborhood Revitalization and Residential Sorting," Working Papers 24-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

  7. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 2023-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Rodnyansky & Yannick Timmer & Naoki Yago, 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," CESifo Working Paper Series 10575, CESifo.
    2. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Bertille Antoine & Otilia Boldea & Niccolo Zaccaria, 2024. "Efficient two-sample instrumental variable estimators with change points and near-weak identification," Papers 2406.17056, arXiv.org.
    5. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pesso, Tom, 2024. "Fiscal policy and inflation: accounting for non-linearities in government debt," Working Paper Series 2996, European Central Bank.
    8. Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta & Sinha, Apra, 2024. "Fiscal spillover in emerging economies: Real versus financial channels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Reprint of “Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle”," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Schroeder, Christofer & Stracca, Livio, 2023. "Pollution havens? Carbon taxes, globalization, and the geography of emissions," Working Paper Series 2862, European Central Bank.
    11. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2025. "Time-varying Local Projections with Stochastic Volatility," Discussion Paper Series 761, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    12. Nathan Goldstein & Ohad Raveh, 2024. "Looking up the sky: unidentified aerial phenomena and macroeconomic attention," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.

  8. Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2022. "Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic," Working Paper Series 2022-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Cardani, Roberta & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Richiardi, Matteo & Bambra, Clare & Vittal Katikireddi, Srinivasa & Wickham, Sophie & Craig, Peter & Barr, Benjamin & Morris, Steph & Maria, Marimpi & Andy, Baxter & Samuel, Hugh-Jones & David, Taylor, 2025. "Estimating population mental health effects of the rollout of Universal Credit: Difference-in-Differences analyses using the UK Household Longitudinal Study, 2009 – 2019," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA3/25, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Hale, Galina & Leer, John & Nechio, Fernanda, 2025. "Fiscal policy design and inflation: The COVID-19 pandemic experience," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9cc4c34z, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. Buchheim, Lukas & Link, Sebastian & Möhrle, Sascha, 2024. "Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees," IZA Discussion Papers 17269, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Galina Hale & John C. Leer & Fernanda Nechio, 2023. "Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms," NBER Working Papers 30906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jain, Monica & Kostyshyna, Olena & Zhang, Xu, 2024. "How do people view wage and price inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Wildauer, Rafael & Kohler, Karsten & Aboobaker, Adam & Guschanski, Alexander, 2023. "Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    9. Lucas Ordóñez, 2025. "The Transmission of Supply Shocks to Inflation: the Case of Argentina (2004-2022)," Working Papers 351, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    10. Guido Ascari & Dennis Bonam & Lorenzo Mori & Andra Smadu, 2024. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 820, DNB.

  9. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Singh, Sanjay, 2020. "Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics," CEPR Discussion Papers 14543, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Donadelli, Michael & Ferranna, Licia & Gufler, Ivan & Paradiso, Antonio, 2021. "Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 214-224.
    2. Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Ma, Chang & Rogers, John H. & Zhou, Sili, 2020. "Modern pandemics: Recession and recovery," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Brzezinski, Adam & Deiana, Guido & Kecht, Valentin & Van Dijcke, David, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic: Government vs. Community Action Across the United States," INET Oxford Working Papers 2020-06, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    5. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Eickmeier, Sandra & Quast, Josefine & Schüler, Yves, 2024. "Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Natural Disasters," CEPR Discussion Papers 18940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. PINSHI, Christian P. & MALATA, Alain, 2020. "Canal d’incertitude de la COVID-19 : Quelles stratégies et tactiques pour la politique monétaire ? [COVID-19 Uncertainty Channel: What Strategies and Tactics for Monetary Policy?]," MPRA Paper 109313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2025. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 28-41, January.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Carolyn Chisadza & Matthew Clance & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Government Effectiveness and Covid-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 202104, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Economic Uncertainty of Pandemics," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 27364, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    12. Qichun He, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic in a Monetary Schumpeterian Model," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 15(4), pages 626-641, December.
    13. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of Covid-19: a mid-term review," BIS Working Papers 959, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Béland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Wright, Taylor, 2020. "The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response," IZA Discussion Papers 13159, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Francesco Bianchi & Giada Bianchi & Dongho Song, 2020. "The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates," NBER Working Papers 28304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2021. "Benefits of macroprudential policy in low interest rate environments," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 90.
    17. Brodeur, Abel & Clark, Andrew E. & Fleche, Sarah & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2020. "COVID-19, Lockdowns and Well-Being: Evidence from Google Trends," GLO Discussion Paper Series 552, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    18. Buesa, Alejandro & Pérez, Javier J. & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2021. "Awareness of pandemics and the impact of COVID-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    19. Benjamin Fomba Kamga & Rodrigue Nda'Chi Deffo, 2022. "Analysis of the resilience strategies of Cameroonian companies in the face of Covid‐19 and their effects on activity," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 880-897, May.
    20. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    21. Cassola, Nuno & De Grauwe, Paul & Morana, Claudio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2022. "The risks of exiting too early the policy responses to the COVID-19 recession," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113327, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    22. Jacopo Bonchi & Giacomo Caracciolo, 2021. "Declining natural interest rate in the US: the pension system matters," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1317, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Aziz N. Berdiev & Rajeev K. Goel & James W. Saunoris, 2022. "Do disease epidemics force economic activity underground? International evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 263-282, April.
    24. Béland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Mikola, Derek & Wright, Taylor, 2020. "The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Occupation Tasks and Mental Health in Canada," IZA Discussion Papers 13254, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    25. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    26. Raphaël Franck, 2022. "Labor Scarcity, Technology Adoption and Innovation: Evidence from the Cholera Pandemics in 19th Century France," CESifo Working Paper Series 9528, CESifo.
    27. Brodeur, Abel & Gray, David & Islam, Anik & Bhuiyan, Suraiya Jabeen, 2020. "A Literature Review of the Economics of COVID-19," GLO Discussion Paper Series 601, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    28. Brzezinski, Michal, 2021. "The impact of past pandemics on economic and gender inequalities," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    29. De Santis, Roberto A. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2020. "Macroeconomic risks across the globe due to the Spanish Flu," Working Paper Series 2466, European Central Bank.
    30. Farhi, Emmanuel & Baqaee, David Rezza, 2020. "Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Ortmans, Aymeric & Tripier, Fabien, 2021. "COVID-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: When did the ECB stop the spread?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    32. Beyer, Robert & Milivojevic, Lazar, 2021. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," IMFS Working Paper Series 146, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    33. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Future of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Three Scenarios with a Trilemma," DEM Working Papers 2020/11, Department of Economics and Management.
    34. Berger, Tino & Morley, James & Wong, Benjamin, 2023. "Nowcasting the output gap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 18-34.
      • Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the output gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    35. Carl Bonham & Ruben Juarez & Nicole Siegal, 2023. "Long COVID and Unemployment in Hawaii," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(13), pages 1-12, June.
    36. Pham, Tien Duc & Dwyer, Larry & Su, Jen-Je & Ngo, Tramy, 2021. "COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    37. Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Rui Xu, 2020. "A Vicious Cycle: How Pandemics Lead to Economic Despair and Social Unrest," IMF Working Papers 2020/216, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Tomas Reichenbachas & Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2021. "Natural real rates of interest across Euro area countries: Are R-stars getting closer together?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 24, Bank of Lithuania.
    39. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. García-Suaza, A & Gallego, J. M. & Mayorga, J. D. & Mondragón-Mayo, A. & Sepúlveda, C. & Sarango, A., 2022. "COVID-19 and assimilation: an analysis of immigration from Venezuelan in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 20417, Universidad del Rosario.
    41. Vladimir Arčabić, 2020. "Koronakriza i što Hrvatska može naučiti iz dosadašnjih recesija," Tradicionalni skup Hrvatskog društva ekonomista u Opatiji - objavljena poglavlja, in: Josip Tica & Katarina Bačić (ed.), Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije, volume 28, chapter 1, pages 21-58, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists).
    42. Mauricio Gallardo, 2021. "Measuring vulnerability to multidimensional poverty with Bayesian network classifiers," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4475, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    43. Kawaguchi, Kohei & Kodama, Naomi & Tanaka, Mari, 2021. "Small business under the COVID-19 crisis: Expected short- and medium-run effects of anti-contagion and economic policies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    44. Martin Bodenstein & Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Guerrieri, 2020. "Social Distancing and Supply Disruptions in a Pandemic," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-031, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    45. Garcia, Pablo & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lenarčič, Črt & Lozej, Matija & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2021. "Global models for a global pandemic: the impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies," Working Paper Series 2603, European Central Bank.
    46. Robert J. R. Elliott & Ingmar Schumacher & Cees Withagen, 2020. "Suggestions for a Covid-19 Post-Pandemic Research Agenda in Environmental Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1187-1213, August.
    47. Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2021. "Influenza Pandemics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Recent Economic History," Working Papers 210002, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    48. Theologos Dergiades & Costas Milas & Elias Mossialos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2021. "Effectiveness of Government Policies in Response to the COVID-19 Outbreak," Discussion Paper Series 2021_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2021.
    49. Gong, Di & Jiang, Tao & Lu, Liping, 2021. "Pandemic and bank lending: Evidence from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    50. Basco Mascaro, Sergi & Domènech Feliu, Jordi & Roses Vendoiro, Juan Ramon, 2020. "The redistributive effects of pandemics: evidence on the Spanish flu," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 30465, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    51. Klona, Maria, 2021. "The Days After COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Epidemics and Pandemics on Long-Term Macro-Economic Performance," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 188-224, May.
    52. Enrico Berbenni & Stefano Colombo, 2021. "The impact of pandemics: revising the Spanish Flu in Italy in light of models’ predictions, and some lessons for the Covid-19 pandemic," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(2), pages 219-243, June.
    53. Carrillo Julio A. & García Ana Laura, 2021. "The COVID-19 Economic Crisis in Mexico through the Lens of a Financial Conditions Index," Working Papers 2021-23, Banco de México.
    54. Kong, Edward & Prinz, Daniel, 2020. "Disentangling policy effects using proxy data: Which shutdown policies affected unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    55. Mahata, Sushobhan & Khan, Rohan Kanti & Chaudhuri, Sarbajit & Nag, Ranjanendra Narayan, 2022. "COVID-19 lockdown, family migration and unemployment in a gendered society," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 218-236.
    56. Florian Bonnet & Hippolyte d'Albis & Josselin Thuilliez, 2022. "Influenza Mortality in French Regions after the Hong Kong Flu Pandemic," Working Papers halshs-03763371, HAL.
    57. Vito Polito & Yunyi Zhang, 2021. "Tackling Large Outliers in Macroeconomic Data with Vector Artificial Neural Network Autoregression," CESifo Working Paper Series 9395, CESifo.
    58. Bonam, Dennis & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Will this time be different?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    59. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Ciprian Ion PREDA & Radu LUPU & Carmen Elena DOBROTĂ & George Marian CĂLIN & Claudia M. BOGHICEVICI, 2020. "Estimates of Dynamics of the Covid19 Pandemic and of its Impact on the Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-17, July.
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    2. Mishel Ghassibe & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "State Dependence of Fiscal Multipliers: the Source of Fluctuations Matters," BCAM Working Papers 2204, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    3. Ortmans, Aymeric & Tripier, Fabien, 2021. "COVID-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: When did the ECB stop the spread?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Kolb, Benedikt, 2024. "Macroprudential capital regulation and fiscal balances in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Mario Alloza & Jesús Gonzalo & Carlos Sanz, 2019. "Dynamic effects of persistent shocks," Working Papers 1944, Banco de España.
    6. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Magud, Nicolas E. & Pienknagura, Samuel, 2024. "The return of expansionary austerity: Firms' investment response to fiscal adjustments in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "The Age for Austerity? Population Age Structure and Fiscal Multipliers," Trinity Economics Papers tep1621, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Mangiante, Giacomo, 2024. "The geographic effects of carbon pricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    10. Kopecky, Joseph, 2022. "The age for austerity? Population age structure and fiscal consolidation multipliers," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Pallante, Gianluca & Russo, Emanuele & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "Does public R&D funding crowd-in private R&D investment? Evidence from military R&D expenditures for US states," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(8).
    12. Miller, Keaton & Wilson, Wesley W., 2023. "Changes in rail rates for U.S. commodity grain shipments over time," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    13. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Green Recovery Programmes. Conceptual Framing and a Review of the Empirical Literature," WIFO Working Papers 646, WIFO.

  11. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," CEPR Discussion Papers 14559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Fève & Pablo Garcia Sanchez & Alban Moura & Olivier Pierrard, 2019. "Costly Default And Asymmetric Real Business Cycles," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2019018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2021. "Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation," Working Papers 21-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 16 Aug 2022.
    3. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Zombies at large? Corporate debt overhang and the macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 042, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    4. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    5. Basco Mascaro, Sergi & Domènech Feliu, Jordi & Roses Vendoiro, Juan Ramon, 2020. "The redistributive effects of pandemics: evidence on the Spanish flu," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 30465, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    6. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Richter, Björn & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The shifts and the shocks: bank risk, leverage, and the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2672, European Central Bank.
    7. Rafael Cezar & Eric Monnet, 2021. "Capital Controls and Foreign Reserves against External Shocks: Combined or Alone?," Working papers 849, Banque de France.
    8. Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2022. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 17162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Toan Phan & Felipe Schwartzman, 2023. "Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation," Working Paper 23-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    10. Patrick Fève & Pablo Garcia Sanchez & Alban Moura & Olivier Pierrard, 2021. "Costly default and skewed business cycle," Post-Print hal-03346173, HAL.
    11. Iqbal, Javed & Mahmood, Fatima & Nosheen, Misbah & Wohar, Mark, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth of India: An application of Hodrick–Prescott filter technique," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 809-823.
    12. Ferreira, Thiago R.T., 2024. "Cross-sectional financial conditions, business cycles and the lending channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Alogoskoufis, George & Malliaris, A.G. & Stengos, Thanasis, 2023. "The scope and methodology of economic and financial asymmetries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    14. Logachov, A. & Logachova, O. & Yambartsev, A., 2024. "Processes with catastrophes: Large deviation point of view," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    15. Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Corporate indebtedness and macroeconomic stabilisation from a long-term perspective," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 024, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

  12. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Zombies at large? Corporate debt overhang and the macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 042, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Goodhart, Charles A.E. & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P. & Wang, Xuan, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118164, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Bertay, Ata & Huizinga, Harry, 2024. "Banking market integration in Europe and insolvency law," Other publications TiSEM c755d114-ca99-4591-be7d-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Fattouh, Bassam & Pisicoli, Beniamino & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 2024. "Debt and financial fragility: Italian non-financial companies after the pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Liu, Chun & Liang, Shilin & Sun, Liang, 2024. "Unintended consequences of the introduction of specialized bankruptcy courts: evidence from zombie lending," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    5. Davis, Leila & de Souza, Joao & Kim, YK. & Rella, Giacomo, 2023. "What are firms borrowing for? The role of financial assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Horvath, Balint L. & Huizinga, Harry, 2023. "Loan Recoveries and the Financing of Zombie Firms over the Business Cycle," Discussion Paper 2023-017, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Martin Kornejew & Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2024. "Bankruptcy Resolution and Credit Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Edward I. Altman & Rui Dai & Wei Wang, 2024. "Global zombie companies: measurements, determinants, and outcomes," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 55(6), pages 723-744, August.
    9. Alexander Hodbod & Cars Hommes & Stefanie J. Huber & Isabelle Salle, 2021. "The COVID-19 Consumption Game-Changer: Evidence from a Large-Scale Multi-Country Survey," Staff Working Papers 21-57, Bank of Canada.
    10. Tomohito HONDA & Arito ONO & Iichiro UESUGI & Yukihiro YASUDA, 2023. "Anatomy of Out-of-court Debt Workouts for SMEs," Discussion papers 23088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Christian Keuschnigg & Michael Kogler & Johannes Matt, 2022. "Banks, Credit Reallocation, and Creative Destruction," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-83, Swiss Finance Institute.
    12. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Historical Effects of Banking Distress on Economic Activity," Current Policy Perspectives 96216, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    13. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. João Tovar Jalles & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2022. "Economic Growth After Debt Surges," IMF Working Papers 2022/159, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Kin Wai Cheung & Masami Imai, 2023. "Zombie Lending, Labor Hoarding, and Local Industry Growth," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2023-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    16. Nabil Daher, 2024. "Is growth at risk from natural disasters? Evidence from quantile local projections," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 12, Stata Users Group.
    17. Nabil Daher, 2025. "Is growth at risk from natural disasters ? Evidence from quantile local projections," EconomiX Working Papers 2025-9, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. Assaf Razin, 2021. "Globalization And Global Crises: Israel And The Rest Of The World," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 19(1), pages 103-134.
    19. Razin, Assaf, 2021. "Globalization and Global Crises: Rest of the World vs. Israel," CEPR Discussion Papers 15643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Nirupama Kulkarni & S.K. Ritadhi & Sayan Mukherjee, 2021. "Unearthing Zombies," Working Papers 59, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    21. Albuquerque, Bruno, 2021. "Corporate debt booms, financial constraints and the investment nexus," Bank of England working papers 935, Bank of England.
    22. Angela De Martiis & Franziska J. Peter, 2023. "When companies don't die: Analyzing zombie firms in a low interest rate environment," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 73(01), pages 67-86, December.
    23. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Bouabdallah, Othman & Domingues Semeano, João & Dorrucci, Ettore & Freier, Maximilian & Jacquinot, Pascal & Modery, Wolfgang & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta & Valenta, Vilém & Zorell, , 2022. "The economic impact of Next Generation EU: a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 291, European Central Bank.
    24. Sebastiao OLIVEIRA & Jay RAFI & Pedro SIMON, 2024. "The Effect of United States Monetary Policy on Foreign Firms: Does Debt Maturity Matter?," Working Papers DP-2024-27, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    25. Yoshibumi Makabe & Yoshihiko Norimasa, 2022. "The Term Structure of Inflation at Risk: A Panel Quantile Regression Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    26. Wang, Yuan & Xing, Chao & Zhang, Luxiu, 2024. "Is greenwashing beneficial for corporate access to financing? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    27. Peter Karlström, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy, Credit Booms, and Banks' Systemic Risk," CEMLA Working Paper Series 03/2023, CEMLA.

  13. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Singh, Sanjay, 2020. "The long-run effects of monetary policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
    2. Tervala, Juha & Watson, Timothy, 2022. "Hysteresis and fiscal stimulus in a recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2020. "The scars of supply shocks: Implications for monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 1748, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2023.
    4. de Groot, Oliver & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Nikalexi, Katerina, 2020. "Monetary policy and regional inequality," Working Paper Series 2385, European Central Bank.
    5. Bhattarai, Saroj & Schwartzman, Felipe & Yang, Choongryul, 2021. "Local scars of the US housing crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 40-57.
    6. Noelia Araújo-Vila & Jose A. Fraiz-Brea & Alexandra Matos Pereira, 2021. "Societal Changes Due to “COVID-19”. An Analysis of the Tourism Sector of Galicia, Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-22, July.
    7. Jung, Kuk Mo & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2023. "A long-run approach to money, unemployment, and equity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. Georgii Riabov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Policy with stochastic hysteresis," Papers 2104.10225, arXiv.org.
    9. Laura Acevedo & Marc Hofstetter, 2024. "Disinflations and Income Distribution," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(4), pages 125-173, October.
    10. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2021. "Macroeconomic Changes with Declining Trend Inflation: Complementarity with the Superstar Firm Hypothesis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    11. Camilo Granados & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2023. "Estimating the Output Gap After COVID: How to Address Unprecedented Macroeconomic Variations," Borradores de Economia 1249, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
    13. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2020. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity," Working Paper 2020/7, Norges Bank.
    14. Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, 2021. "Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy," Staff Report 622, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Di Domenico, Lorenzo & Gahn, Santiago José & Romaniello, Davide, 2024. "Testing the Waters of Positive Hysteresis: The Effects of Autonomous Demand Shocks on Inflation, Accumulation, and Labor in the US Economy," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP64, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    16. Dávila-Ospina, Andrés O., 2023. "Hysteresis From Monetary Policy Mistakes: How Bad Could It Be?," Documentos CEDE 21003, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    17. Dieppe, Alistair & Francis, Neville & Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene, 2021. "Technology and demand drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 2533, European Central Bank.
    18. Tumisang Loate & Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Sailing into the Wind evaluating the near future of Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 11006, South African Reserve Bank.
    19. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
    20. Tim Willems, 2020. "What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large Tightenings," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 41-58, October.
    21. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2020. "21st Century Macro," NBER Working Papers 26791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Francesco Furlanetto & Ørjan Robstad & Pål Ulvedal & Antoine Lepetit, 2020. "Estimating hysteresis effects," Working Paper 2020/13, Norges Bank.
    23. Maximilian Grimm, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Bank Funding Stability," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 341, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    24. Andreas Gulyas & Matthias Meier & Mykola Ryzhenkov, 2023. "Labor Market Effects of Monetary Policy Across Workers and Firms," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_407, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    25. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I measure the Output gap?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    27. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2020. "Forward Guidance Matters: Disentangling Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Papers 912, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    28. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2021. "Real exchange rate and international spillover effects of US technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    29. Lucidi, Francesco Simone & Semmler, Willi, 2023. "Long-run scarring effects of meltdowns in a small-scale nonlinear quadratic model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    30. Rémi Odry & Roman Mestre, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-19, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    31. Albert Queraltó, 2022. "Monetary Policy in a Model of Growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 1340, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Haroon Mumtaz & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, "undated". "The distributional effects of climate change. An empirical analysis," Working Papers 966, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    33. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar, 2019. "Riders on the Storm," CEPR Discussion Papers 13978, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    35. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2020. "Monetary policy and the top one percent: Evidence from a century of modern economic history," AMSE Working Papers 2047, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    36. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Emmanuelle Faure & Paul Hubert, 2020. "Setting New Priorities for the ECB’s Mandate," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03389186, HAL.
    37. Sascha Buetzer, 2022. "Advancing the Monetary Policy Toolkit through Outright Transfers," IMF Working Papers 2022/087, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    39. James Cloyne & Patrick Hürtgen & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Global Monetary and Financial Spillovers: Evidence from a New Measure of Bundesbank Policy Shocks," NBER Working Papers 30485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurelien Leroy, 2022. "Monetary Policy and the Top One Percent: Evidence from a Century of Modern Economic History," Working Papers hal-03897335, HAL.
    41. Tervala, Juha, 2021. "Hysteresis and the welfare costs of recessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-144.
    42. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 26962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Ethan Ilzetzki, 2023. "Learning by necessity: Government demand, capacity constraints, and productivity growth," Discussion Papers 2305, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    44. Roa Rozo, Julián, 2024. "Is there hysteresis in potential output estimates?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    45. Valerie Cerra & Antonio Fatás & Sweta C. Saxena, 2023. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 181-225, March.
    46. Alessandro Bellocchi & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2024. "Nonlinearity, Endogeneity, and Interaction: Implications for European Reform of Budgetary Rules," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 10(2), pages 519-550, July.
    47. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging," Trinity Economics Papers tep0721, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    48. Felipe Alves & Giovanni L. Violante, 2024. "From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-39, Bank of Canada.
    49. Marques, André M. & Carvalho, André R., 2022. "Testing the neo-fisherian hypothesis in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 407-419.
    50. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    51. Puonti, Päivi, 2022. "Public Debt and Economic Growth," ETLA Reports 127, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    52. John Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2022. "The UK Productivity Puzzle in an International Comparative Perspective," Working Papers 020, The Productivity Institute.
    53. Shunsuke Haba & Yuichiro Ito & Shogo Nakano & Takahiro Yamanaka, 2024. "Assessing the Long-Term Impact of Monetary Policy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-19, Bank of Japan.
    54. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Schmidt, Tobias, 2024. "Do recessions slow technology growth? Evidence from the firm level," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2024, Bank of Finland.
    55. Rosaria Rita Canale & G. Liotti, 2022. "Target2 imbalances and poverty in the eurozone," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1395-1417, November.
    56. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & McClung, Nigel, 2024. "Can growth stabilize debt? A fiscal theory perspective," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2024, Bank of Finland, revised 2024.
    57. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2021. "Endogenous growth, skill obsolescence and fiscal multipliers," Kiel Working Papers 2184, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    58. Rieder, Kilian, 2022. "Monetary policy decision-making by committee: Why, when and how it can work," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    59. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    60. Loipersberger, Florian & Matschke, Johannes, 2022. "Financial cycles and domestic policy choices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    61. Guérin, Pierre, 2023. "What are the effects of monetary policy on productivity?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    62. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    63. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Pointner, Wolfgang & van den End, Jan Willem, 2022. "The effects of climate change on the natural rate of interest: a critical survey," Working Paper Series 2744, European Central Bank.
    64. Jang, Bosung & So, Inhwan & Tong, Eric, 2023. "US structural drivers of international portfolio returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    65. Váry, Miklós, 2021. "The long-run real effects of monetary shocks: Lessons from a hybrid post-Keynesian-DSGE-agent-based menu cost model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

  14. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar, 2019. "Riders on the Storm," CEPR Discussion Papers 13978, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Alpanda, Sami & Granziera, Eleonora & Zubairy, Sarah, 2019. "State dependence of monetary policy across business, credit and interest rate cycles," Working Paper 2019/21, Norges Bank.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2021. "Reprint: Two challenges from globalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Müller, Gernot & Dietrich, Alexander & Schoenle, Raphael, 2021. "The Expectations Channel of Climate Change:Implications for Monetary Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242446, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2021. "Supply of Sovereign Safe Assets and Global Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1315, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2021. "Two challenges from globalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Harrison, Richard & Sajedi, Rana, 2022. "Decomposing the drivers of Global R," Bank of England working papers 990, Bank of England.
    8. Davis, Josh & Fuenzalida, Cristian & Huetsch, Leon & Mills, Benjamin & Taylor, Alan M., 2024. "Global natural rates in the long run: Postwar macro trends and the market-implied r∗ in 10 advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

  15. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz, 2019. "The Total Risk Premium Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 13595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Lars Hultkrantz, 2021. "Discounting in economic evaluation of healthcare interventions: what about the risk term?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(3), pages 357-363, April.
    2. NguyenHuu, Tam, 2022. "The impacts of rare disasters on asset returns and risk premiums in advanced economies (1870–2015)," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Christopher Heiberger & Daniel Fehrle, 2020. "The return on everything and the business cycle in production economies," Discussion Paper Series 338, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    4. Geoffrey Meen & Alexander Mihailov & Yehui Wang, 2022. "On the long-run solution to aggregate housing systems," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(1), pages 178-196, January.
    5. Łukowski, Michał & Gemra, Kamil & Maruszewski, Janusz & Śliwiński, Paweł & Zygmanowski, Piotr, 2020. "Equity premium puzzle — Evidence from Poland," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Jaccard, Ivan, 2021. "Leveraged property cycles," Working Paper Series 2539, European Central Bank.

  16. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2018. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015," CESifo Working Paper Series 6899, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Lorenzo Pozzi & Barbara Sadaba, 2023. "Macroeconomic Disasters and Consumption Smoothing: International Evidence from Historical Data," Staff Working Papers 23-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2022. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates: A New Monetarist DSGE Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 134-167, July.
    3. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," Working Paper Series WP19-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Mehdi el Herradi & Jakob de Haan & Aurélien Leroy, 2020. "Inflation and the Income Share of the Rich: Evidence for 12 OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8203, CESifo.
    5. Dennis C. Hutschenreiter & Tommaso Santini & Eugenia Vella, 2022. "Automation and sectoral reallocation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 335-362, May.
    6. Ahn, Seryoong & Ryu, Doojin, 2024. "Optimal chonsei to monthly rent conversion choice given borrowing constraints," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 28-42.
    7. Volker Grossmann & Johannes Schünemann & Holger Strulik, 2024. "Fair Pension Policies with Occupation-Specific Ageing," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(663), pages 2835-2875.
    8. Grossmann, Volker & Larin, Benjamin & Löfflad, Hans Torben & Steger, Thomas, 2021. "Distributional consequences of surging housing rents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    9. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2020. "Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area," Working Papers 2020-24, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    10. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi & Alessandro Rebucci, 2020. "A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 8588, CESifo.
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    1. Beau Soederhuizen & Rutger Teulings & Rob Luginbuhl, 2023. "Estimating the impact of the financial cycle on fiscal policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2669-2709, December.
    2. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on an emerging market economy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 803-824, April.
    3. Moritz Schularick & Lucas ter Steege & Felix Ward, 2020. "Leaning against the wind and crisis risk," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 041, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    4. De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2024. "The transmission of U.S. monetary policy to small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Goldberg, Linda S., 2023. "Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits," CEPR Discussion Papers 18231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Amat Adarov, 2022. "Financial cycles around the world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3163-3201, July.
    7. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    9. Anagnostopoulos, Alexios & Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem & Faraglia, Elisa & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2022. "Cross-Country Stock Market Comovement: A Macro Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 16021, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Samuel P. Fraiberger & Dongyeol Lee & Mr. Damien Puy & Mr. Romain Ranciere, 2018. "Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2018/274, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Zhang, Mi & Sensoy, Ahmet & Cheng, Feiyang & Zhao, Xuankai, 2022. "Three channels of monetary policy international transmission: Identifying spillover effects from the US to China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    12. Riccardo Degasperi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2024. "US monetary policy spillovers to the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 891, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Global financial cycles since 1880," IMFS Working Paper Series 132, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    14. C. Bora Durdu & Alex Martin & Ilknur Zer, 2020. "The Role of US Monetary Policy in Banking Crises Across the World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 66-107, March.
    15. Carrera Jorge & Montes Rojas Gabriel & Solla Mariquena & Toledo Fernando, 2022. "Global Financial Cycle, Commodity Terms of Trade and Financial Spreads in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4613, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    16. Marcelo Bianconi & Federico Esposito & Marco Sammon, 2019. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0830, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    17. Pawel Dlotko & Simon Rudkin & Wanling Qiu, 2019. "Topologically Mapping the Macroeconomy," Papers 1911.10476, arXiv.org.
    18. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2021. "A Tale of Two Global Monetary Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Xin Tian & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2022. "Alternative Measures for the Global Financial Cycle: Do They Make a Difference?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9730, CESifo.
    20. Rafael Cezar & Eric Monnet, 2021. "Capital Controls and Foreign Reserves against External Shocks: Combined or Alone?," Working papers 849, Banque de France.
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  18. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2017. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," CEPR Discussion Papers 11801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. McLaughlin, Darragh & McLaughlin, Eoin & Kenny, Seán, 2025. "Taking a punt: Monetary experimentation and the Irish macroeconomic crisis of 1955-56," Accountancy, Economics, and Finance Working Papers 2025-01, Heriot-Watt University, Department of Accountancy, Economics, and Finance.
    3. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Sangyup Choi & Kimoon Jeong & Jiseob Kim, 2024. "Asymmetric Mortgage Channel of Monetary Policy: Refinancing as a Call Option," Working papers 2024rwp-228, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    5. Xin Sheng & Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2020. "House Price Synchronization across the US States: The Role of Structural Oil Shocks," Working Papers 202076, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Cloyne, James & Jordà , Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 17903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Carlo Altavilla & Luc Laeven & José-Luis Peydró, 2021. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Complementarities: Evidence from European Credit Registers," Working Papers 1246, Barcelona School of Economics.
    8. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Gabriel Jiménez & Dmitry Kuvshinov & José-Luis Peydró & Bjoern Richter, 2022. "Monetary policy, inflation, and crises: New evidence from history and administrative data," Economics Working Papers 1854, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2023.
    10. Adam Brzezinski & Yao Chen & Nuno Palma & Felix Ward, 2019. "The vagaries of the sea: evidence on the real effects of money from maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire," Working Papers 0170, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    11. Kloosterman, Roben & Bonam, Dennis & van der Veer, Koen, 2024. "The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Asger Lau Andersen & Niels Johannesen & Mia Jørgensen & José-Luis Peydró, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Inequality," CEBI working paper series 22-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    13. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2024. "The bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission in South Africa," Working Papers 11072, South African Reserve Bank.
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    36. Gaetano Basso & Salvatore Lo Bello & Francesca Subioli, 2023. "Labor market dynamics and geographical reallocations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1430, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    37. Bertille Antoine & Otilia Boldea & Niccolo Zaccaria, 2024. "Efficient two-sample instrumental variable estimators with change points and near-weak identification," Papers 2406.17056, arXiv.org.
    38. Elisabetta Cappa & Francesco Lamperti & Gianluca Pallante, 2024. "Creating Jobs Out of the Green: The Employment Effects of the Energy Transition," LEM Papers Series 2024/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    39. Adra, Samer & Menassa, Elie, 2021. "Monetary policy and information production in the secondary market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
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    41. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2020. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Working Paper Series 2020-04, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
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    43. Maximilian Grimm, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Bank Funding Stability," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 341, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    44. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2020. "Do rising top incomes fuel credit expansion?," Post-Print hal-03002536, HAL.
    45. John Kandrac, 2021. "Can the Federal Reserve Effectively Target Main Street? Evidence from the 1970s Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    46. Antoine Levy & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Alejandro M. Werner, 2020. "The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 2020/220, International Monetary Fund.
    47. Buch, Claudia M. & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2022. "Banking deregulation, macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    48. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2021. "Monetary Policy, External Finance and Investment," Working Papers 92, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    49. Hernández, Juan R. & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Valencia, J. Eduardo, 2024. "Global supply chain inflationary pressures and monetary policy in Mexico," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    50. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2019. "Monetary policy, corporate finance and investment," Working Papers 1911, Banco de España.
    51. Rangan Gupta & Xin Sheng & Renee van Eyden & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "The Impact of Disaggregated Oil Shocks on State-Level Real Housing Returns of the United States: The Role of Oil Dependence," Working Papers 202096, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    52. Martin Harding & Mathias Klein, 2022. "Monetary policy and household net worth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 125-151, April.
    53. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurélien Leroy, 2020. "Monetary policy and the top one percent: Evidence from a century of modern economic history," AMSE Working Papers 2047, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    54. Junli Cheng & Feng Lin, 2022. "The Dynamic Effects of Urban–Rural Income Inequality on Sustainable Economic Growth under Urbanization and Monetary Policy in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-23, June.
    55. Mitchener, Kris James & Pina, Gonçalo, 2023. "The effects of countercyclical interest rates: Evidence from the classical gold standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    56. Mehdi El Herradi & Aurelien Leroy, 2022. "Monetary Policy and the Top One Percent: Evidence from a Century of Modern Economic History," Working Papers hal-03897335, HAL.
    57. Immaculate Machasio & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Remittance flows and US monetary policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(3), pages 545-561, August.
    58. Ruben Tarne & Dirk Bezemer, 2023. "ousing affordability in a monetary economy: an agent-based model of the Dutch housing market," IMK Working Paper 222-2023, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    59. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    60. Atems, Bebonchu & Sardar, Naafey, 2021. "Exploring asymmetries in the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on U.S. food and agricultural stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-14.
    61. Rashad Ahmed & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Boris Hofmann, 2021. "Losing traction? The real effects of monetary policy when interest rates are low," BIS Working Papers 983, Bank for International Settlements.
    62. Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, Hong, 2022. "Monetary policy surprises and investment of non-listed real sector firms in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 631-642.
    63. Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy," BIS Working Papers 740, Bank for International Settlements.
    64. Andrea Tafuro, 2024. "Lagging behind: the hysteresis of austerity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 327-368, January.
    65. Alam, M. Jahangir & Alvi, Eskander, 2024. "The long-run effects of monetary policy: The role of R&D investment in economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    66. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging," Trinity Economics Papers tep0721, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    67. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Reprint of “Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle”," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    68. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Renault, Théodore, 2022. "Risk sharing and monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2746, European Central Bank.
    69. Lucidi, Francesco Simone & Semmler, Willi, 2022. "Supervisory shocks to banks' credit standards and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
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    72. Lee, Sukjoon, 2020. "Liquidity Premium, Credit Costs, and Optimal Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 104825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    73. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Lockdown spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    74. Yener Coskun & Nicholas Apergis & Esra Alp Coskun, 2022. "Nonlinear responses of consumption to wealth, income, and interest rate shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1293-1335, September.
    75. Esra Alp Coşkun & Hakan Kahyaoglu & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2023. "Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior? Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.
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  19. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 11934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Zhang, Xin, 2023. "Private Bank Money vs Central Bank Money: A Historical Lesson for CBDC Introduction," Working Paper Series 424, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jul 2023.
    2. Demosthenes Tambakis, 2021. "A Markov chain measure of systemic banking crisis frequency," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(16), pages 1351-1356, September.
    3. Alina K. Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Ulrike I. Steins, 2020. "Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016," Working Papers Series inetwp124, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    4. Carmassi, Jacopo & Dobkowitz, Sonja & Evrard, Johanne & Parisi, Laura & Silva, André & Wedow, Michael, 2018. "Completing the Banking Union with a European Deposit Insurance Scheme: who is afraid of cross-subsidisation?," Occasional Paper Series 208, European Central Bank.
    5. Andreas Haufler & Christoph Lülfesmann, 2022. "Voluntary Equity, Project Risk, and Capital Requirements," CESifo Working Paper Series 9505, CESifo.
    6. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2020. "Financial crises, macroprudential policy and the reliability of credit-to-GDP gaps," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 567, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Gabriel Jiménez & Dmitry Kuvshinov & José-Luis Peydró & Bjoern Richter, 2022. "Monetary policy, inflation, and crises: New evidence from history and administrative data," Economics Working Papers 1854, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2023.
    8. Moreira, Fernando, 2022. "Are we living in an illusion? A fresh look at the importance of bank capital in the quest for stability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2020. "Are bank capital requirements optimally set? Evidence from researchers' views," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2020, Bank of Finland.
    10. Sergi Basco & John P. Tang, 2021. "Banks, Credit Supply, and the Life Cycle of Firms: Theory and Evidence from Late Nineteenth Century Japan," CEH Discussion Papers 02, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    11. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey & Rozhkova, Anna, 2020. "When are credit gap estimates reliable?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 221-238.
    12. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Richter, Björn & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2022. "The shifts and the shocks: bank risk, leverage, and the macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 2672, European Central Bank.
    13. Soederhuizen, Beau & van Heuvelen, Gerrit Hugo & Luginbuhl, Rob & Stiphout-Kramer, Bert van, 2023. "Optimal capital ratios for banks in the euro area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Dennis Fixler & Kim Zieschang, 2016. "Producing Liquidity," CEPA Working Papers Series WP022016, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    15. Ibrocevic, Edin & Thiemann, Matthias, 2018. "All economic ideas are equal, but some are more equal than others: A differentiated perspective on macroprudential ideas and their implementation," SAFE Working Paper Series 214, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    16. Thore Kockerols & Erling Motzfeldt Kravik & Yasin Mimir, 2021. "Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises," Working Paper 2021/11, Norges Bank.
    17. Miller, Steph & Barth, James, 2017. "Benefits and Costs of a Higher Bank Leverage Ratio," Working Papers 07847, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    18. Brandão-Marques, Luis & Chen, Qianying & Raddatz, Claudio & Vandenbussche, Jérôme & Xie, Peichu, 2022. "The riskiness of credit allocation and financial stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    19. Fernandez-Gallardo, Alvaro, 2023. "Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo, 2023. "gingado: a machine learning library focused on economics and finance," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data science in central banking: applications and tools, volume 59, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Mike G. Tsionas, 2021. "A Bayesian panel stochastic volatility measure of financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5363-5384, October.
    22. Durand, Pierre & Le Quang, Gaëtan, 2022. "Banks to basics! Why banking regulation should focus on equity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 349-372.
    23. Dávila, Eduardo & Walther, Ansgar, 2021. "Prudential policy with distorted beliefs," ESRB Working Paper Series 130, European Systemic Risk Board.
    24. Tang, John P. & Basco, Sergi, 2023. "Banks, credit supply, and the life cycle of firms: Evidence from late nineteenth century Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    25. André F. Silva, 2019. "Strategic Liquidity Mismatch and Financial Sector Stability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-082, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Rubio, Margarita & Yao, Fang, 2020. "Bank capital, financial stability and Basel regulation in a low interest-rate environment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 378-392.
    27. Loizos, Konstantinos & Panagopoulos, Yannis, 2024. "Testing how banks generate credit in the USA under the Basel III framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    28. Bjorn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Paul Wachtel, 2018. "When to Lean Against the Wind," Working Papers 18-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    29. Maximilian Grimm, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Bank Funding Stability," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 341, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    30. Goetz, Martin & Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2021. "Do bank insiders impede equity issuances?," Working Paper Series 2511, European Central Bank.
    31. Ray Barrell & Dilruba Karim, 2020. "Bank capital: Excess credit and crisis incidence," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 121-137.
    32. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Historical Effects of Banking Distress on Economic Activity," Current Policy Perspectives 96216, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    33. Paymon Khorrami & Fernando Mendo, 2021. "Rational Sentiments and Financial Frictions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 928, Central Bank of Chile.
    34. Simon Baumgartner & Alex Stomper & Thomas Schober & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2023. "Banking on Snow: Bank Capital, Risk, and Employment," Working Papers 2023-02, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    35. Raphaël Cardot-Martin & Fabien Labondance & Catherine Refait-Alexandre, 2021. "Capital ratios and banking crises in the European Union," Working Papers 2021-05, CRESE.
    36. Cutura, Jannic Alexander, 2021. "Debt holder monitoring and implicit guarantees: Did the BRRD improve market discipline?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    37. Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Gabriel Moinescu, 2023. "What is the optimal capital ratio implying a stable European banking system?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 324-343, December.
    38. Bartscher, Alina & Kuhn, Moritz & Schularick, Moritz & Steins, Ulrike, 2024. "The Distribution of Household Debt in the United States, 1950-2019," CEPR Discussion Papers 18929, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Serena Merrino & Ilias Chondrogiannis, 2024. "Did Basel III reduce bank spillovers in South Africa," Working Papers 11060, South African Reserve Bank.
    40. Martin Birn & Olivier de Bandt & Simon Firestone & Matías Gutiérrez Girault & Diana Hancock & Tord Krogh & Hitoshi Mio & Donald P. Morgan & Ajay Palvia & Valerio Scalone & Michael Straughan & Arzu Ulu, 2020. "The Costs and Benefits of Bank Capital—A Review of the Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-25, April.
    41. Claudia M. Buch & Benjamin Weigert, 2019. "Macroprudential policy in a currency union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(1), pages 23-33, February.
    42. Josef Schroth, 2021. "On the Distributional Effects of Bank Bailouts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 252-277, April.
    43. Wix, Carlo, 2017. "The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity," SAFE Working Paper Series 189, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    44. Lu'is A. V. Cat~ao & Jan Ditzen & Daniel Marcel te Kaat, 2023. "Global Factors in Non-core Bank Funding and Exchange Rate Flexibility," Papers 2310.11552, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    45. Bacchetta, Philippe, 2017. "The Sovereign Money Initiative in Switzerland: An Economic Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 12349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2019. "Sovereigns going bust: Estimating the cost of default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-21.
    47. Agovino, Massimiliano & Bartoletto, Silvana & Garofalo, Antonio, 2022. "A long-term analysis of efficiency in the Italian banking system from 1861 to 2010," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 227-241.
    48. Lubberink, Martien, 2020. "Max Headroom: Discretionary Capital Buffers and Bank Risk," MPRA Paper 100445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Andersen, Henrik & Juelsrud, Ragnar Enger, 2024. "Optimal capital adequacy ratios for banks," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(2).
    50. Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Financial policy in an exuberant world," Working Paper Series 2380, European Central Bank.
    51. Fukuyama, Hirofumi & Matousek, Roman & Tzeremes, Nickolaos G., 2022. "Bank production with nonperforming loans: A minimum distance directional slack inefficiency approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    52. Fernando Moreira, 2024. "Risk-taking in banks: does skin-in-the-game really matter?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 404-424, December.
    53. Aurélien Espic & Lisa Kerdelhu & Julien Matheron, 2024. "Capital Requirements in Light of Monetary Tightening," Working papers 947, Banque de France.
    54. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Josef Bajzik & Zuzana Gric, 2021. "A Tale of Different Capital Ratios: How to Correctly Assess the Impact of Capital Regulation on Lending," Working Papers 2021/8, Czech National Bank.
    55. Dmitry Kuvshinov & Kaspar Zimmermann, 2018. "The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run," Working Papers 0136, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    56. Vo, Quynh-Anh, 2021. "Interactions of capital and liquidity requirements: a review of the literature," Bank of England working papers 916, Bank of England.
    57. Boďa, Martin & Zimková, Emília, 2021. "Overcoming the loan-to-deposit ratio by a financial intermediation measure — A perspective instrument of financial stability policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 1051-1069.
    58. Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Josef Bajzík & Zuzana Gric, 2024. "Bank capital, lending, and regulation: A meta‐analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 823-851, July.
    59. Dalla, Eleni & Varelas, Erotokritos, 2019. "Regulation & oligopoly in banking: The role of banking cost structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-1.
    60. Mr. Plamen K Iossifov, 2021. "Cyclical Patterns of Systemic Risk Metrics: Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2021/028, International Monetary Fund.
    61. Alfred Duncan & Charles Nolan, 2017. "Financial Frictions in Macroeconomic Models," Studies in Economics 1719, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    62. David Longworth, 2020. "The Era of Digital Financial Innovation: Lessons from Economic History on Regulation," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 568, March.
    63. Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Corporate indebtedness and macroeconomic stabilisation from a long-term perspective," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 024, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

  20. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2016. "The Great Mortgaging," 2016 Meeting Papers 185, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and financial crisis indicators," Discussion Papers 36/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Atif Mian, 2016. "Comment on "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, pages 274-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Milan Christian de Wet, 2021. "Modelling the Australasian Financial Cycle: A Markov-Regime Switching Approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 14(1), pages 69-79, June.
    4. Varadi, Alexandra, 2021. "Identifying the transmission channels of credit supply shocks to household debt: price and non-price effects," Bank of England working papers 927, Bank of England.
    5. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
    6. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada," CEPR Discussion Papers 12845, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Giacomo Rella, 2021. "The Fed, housing and household debt over time," Department of Economics University of Siena 850, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    8. Baur, Dirk, 2019. "Monopoly in Real Life - The Housing Market, Finance and Inequality," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203547, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Mattia Guerini & Alessio Moneta & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2018. "The janus-faced nature of debt: results from a data-driven cointegrated svar approach," Post-Print hal-03471585, HAL.
    10. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2021. "Lender-specific mortgage supply shocks and macroeconomic performance in the United States," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    11. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and systemic-risk indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    12. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2020. "Peak China Housing," NBER Working Papers 27697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Jun Nagayasu, 2021. "Life Cycles and Gender in Residential Mobility Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 370-401, April.
    14. Lenarčič, Črt, 2021. "Estimating business and financial cycles in Slovenia," MPRA Paper 109977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.
    16. Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2021. "Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1936, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Jiří Rajl, 2019. "The Impact of Regulatory Measures on the Development of Household Indebtedness," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(1), pages 5-23.
    18. Kenneth Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2021. "Has China's Housing Production Peaked?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(1), pages 1-31, January.
    19. Samarina, Anna & Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2017. "Credit cycle coherence in the eurozone: Was there a euro effect?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 77-98.
    20. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: The painful legacy of credit booms," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2017, Bank of Finland.
    21. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Going with the flows: New borrowing, debt service and the transmission of credit booms," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2018, Bank of Finland.
    22. Mr. Fei Han & Ms. Emilia M Jurzyk & Wei Guo & Yun He & Ms. Nadia Rendak, 2019. "Assessing Macro-Financial Risks of Household Debt in China," IMF Working Papers 2019/258, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Bezemer, Dirk & Samarina, Anna & Zhang, Lu, 2017. "The Shift in Bank Credit Allocation: New Data and New Findings," Research Report 17012-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    24. Levina, Iren & Sturrock, Robert & Varadi, Alexandra & Wallis, Gavin, 2019. "Modelling the distribution of mortgage debt," Bank of England working papers 808, Bank of England.
    25. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa, 2020. "Projecting post-crisis house and equity prices since the 1870s:not all crises are alike," MPRA Paper 103164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Sarah Chan, 2020. "China’s Rising Household Debt: A New Debt Trap?," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 567-578, December.
    27. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2024. "Housing, Distribution, and Welfare," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 981-1020, August.
    28. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2022. "Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, April.
    29. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    30. Pontines, Victor, 2018. "Self-selection and treatment effects: Revisiting the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 299-316.
    31. Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2017. "Bank-Specific Shocks and House Price Growth in the U.S," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1636, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    32. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2021. "Credit Supply Shocks and Household Defaults," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp691, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    33. Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2020. "Managing GDP Tail Risk," Staff Working Papers 20-3, Bank of Canada.
    34. Kösem, Sevim, 2021. "Income inequality, mortgage debt and house prices," Bank of England working papers 921, Bank of England.
    35. P. Reusens & Ch. Warisse, 2018. "House prices and economic growth in Belgium," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 81-106, december.

  21. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz, 2016. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 11587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Grisse, Christian & Scheidegger, Fabian, 2021. "Covariability of real exchange rates and fundamentals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    2. Donadelli, Michael & Ferranna, Licia & Gufler, Ivan & Paradiso, Antonio, 2021. "Using past epidemics to estimate the macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: A bad idea!," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 214-224.
    3. Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ruthardt, Fabian & Potrafke, Niklas & Wüthrich, Kaspar, 2021. "Protectionism and economic growth: Causal evidence from the first era of globalization," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242425, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. David Aikman & Michael T. Kiley & Seung Jung Lee & Michael G. Palumbo & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2015. "Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Bakas, Dimitrios & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2020. "Financial crises and economic recovery: Cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    7. Kelvin J. L. Koa & Yunshan Ma & Ritchie Ng & Huanhuan Zheng & Tat-Seng Chua, 2024. "Temporal Relational Reasoning of Large Language Models for Detecting Stock Portfolio Crashes," Papers 2410.17266, arXiv.org.
    8. Francesco Bianchi, 2015. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A View from Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 21056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Moritz Schularick & Lucas ter Steege & Felix Ward, 2020. "Leaning against the wind and crisis risk," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 041, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    10. Crescioli, Tommaso, 2024. "Reinforcing each other: How the combination of European and domestic reforms increased competition in liberalized industries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar, 2020. "Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers," IZA Discussion Papers 13000, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Demosthenes Tambakis, 2021. "A Markov chain measure of systemic banking crisis frequency," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(16), pages 1351-1356, September.
    13. Diego Comin & Ramana Nanda, 2019. "Financial Development and Technology Diffusion," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(2), pages 395-419, June.
    14. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," NBER Working Papers 24112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "The Second Era of Globalization is Not Yet Over: An Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 23786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Moritz Drechsel-Grau & Fabian Greimel, 2020. "Falling Behind: Has Rising Inequality Fueled the American Debt Boom?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_159v2, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    17. Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Zhang, Xin, 2024. "Four Facts about International Central Bank Communication," Working Paper Series 432, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    18. Giovanni Dosi & Lucrezia Fanti & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2024. "Attributes and trends of rentified capitalism," LEM Papers Series 2024/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    19. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    20. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," Globalization Institute Working Papers 340, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    21. Manuel García-Santana & Josep Pijoan-Mas & Lucciano Villacorta, 2019. "Investment demand and structural change," Economics Working Papers 1668, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    22. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim, 2018. "Negative bubbles: What happens after a crash," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 171-191, March.
    23. Youssef Ghallada & Alexandre Girard & Kim Oosterlinck, 2021. "Crises, credit booms and monetary regime," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/335337, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    24. Daniel Fehrle, 2023. "Hedging against inflation: housing versus equity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(6), pages 2583-2626, December.
    25. Julien Pénasse & Luc Renneboog, 2022. "Speculative Trading and Bubbles: Evidence from the Art Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 4939-4963, July.
    26. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2020. "Financial crises, macroprudential policy and the reliability of credit-to-GDP gaps," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 567, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    27. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa, 2022. "How did house and stock prices respond to different crisis episodes since the 1870s?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    28. Barry Eichengreen & Arnaud Mehl & Livia Chiţu & Thorsten Beck, 2019. "Mars or Mercury? The geopolitics of international currency choice," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 315-363.
    29. Cloyne, James & Jordà , Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 17903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Joël Cariolle & Petros G Sekeris, 2021. "How export shocks corrupt: theory and evidence," Working Papers hal-03164648, HAL.
    31. Bayer, Christian & Born, Benjamin & Luetticke, Ralph, 2023. "The liquidity channel of fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 86-117.
    32. Andrea Borsato, 2021. "Does the Secular Stagnation hypothesis match with data? Evidence from USA," Working Papers of BETA 2021-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    33. Breunig, Christoph & Grabova, Iuliia & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix & Weizsäcker, Georg, 2019. "Long-run Expectations of Households," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 218, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    34. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Zombies at large? Corporate debt overhang and the macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 042, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    35. Volha Audzei, 2021. "Learning and Cross-Country Correlations in a Multi-Country DSGE Model," Working Papers 2021/7, Czech National Bank.
    36. Daniel L. Greenwald & Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Financial Fragility with SAM?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 651-706, April.
    37. Georgios Karras, 2019. "Are “twin deficits” asymmetric? Evidence on government budget and current account balances, 1870–2013," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 158, pages 12-24.
    38. Westerhout, Ed & Meijdam, Lex & Ponds, Eduard & Bonenkamp, Jan, 2022. "Should we revive PAYG? On the optimal pension system in view of current economic trends," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    39. Moritz Schularick & Bjorn Richter & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 843, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    40. Liu, Lu, 2023. "The demand for long-term mortgage contracts and the role of collateral," Bank of England working papers 1009, Bank of England.
    41. Jung, Kuk Mo & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2023. "A long-run approach to money, unemployment, and equity prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    42. Zhengyang Jiang, 2024. "Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11279, CESifo.
    43. Agnieszka (A.P.) Markiewicz & Rafal Raciborski, 2018. "Income Inequality and Stock Market Returns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-075/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    44. Michele Fratianni & Federico Giri & Riccardo Lucchetti & Francesco Valentini, 2022. "Monetization, wars, and the Italian fiscal multiplier," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 176, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    45. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Global financial cycles since 1880," IMFS Working Paper Series 132, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    46. Łukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," NBER Working Papers 26198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Klein, Mathias & Pessoa, Sofia, 2022. "The Political Costs of Austerity," Working Paper Series 418, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    48. Franziska Hunnekes & Maximilian Konradt & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch & Julian Wingenbach, 2023. "Exportweltmeister- Germany's Foreign Investment Returns in International Comparison," IHEID Working Papers 03-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    49. Halberstadt, Arne, 2021. "Decomposing the yield curve with linear regressions and survey information," Discussion Papers 27/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    50. Olkhov, Victor, 2019. "New Essentials of Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 95065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuño, 2019. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," NBER Working Papers 26302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Oguzhan Bozatli & Seref Can Serin & Murat Demir, 2024. "The causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approaches," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-27, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Aikman & Michael T. Kiley & Seung Jung Lee & Michael G. Palumbo & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2015. "Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Akin, Ozlem & Marín, J.M. & Peydró, José-Luis, 2019. "Anticipating the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Insider Trading in Banks," EconStor Preprints 216803, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2017. "The macroeconomics of rational bubbles: a user's guide," Economics Working Papers 1581, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2018.
    4. Moritz Schularick, 2022. "New perspectives on monetary policy," Working Papers 3, Forum New Economy.
    5. Caspi, Itamar & Graham, Meital, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in stock markets with irregular dividend distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 89-94.
    6. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2018. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-171.
    7. Moritz Schularick & Bjorn Richter & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 843, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Alina K Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Paul Wachtel, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03881327, HAL.
    9. Federico Favaretto & Donato Masciandaro, 2022. "Populism, financial crises and banking policies: Economics and psychology," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(4), pages 441-464, September.
    10. Charles W. Calomiris & Matthew Jaremski, 2016. "Deposit Insurance: Theories and Facts," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 97-120, October.
    11. Ardila, Diego & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "Dating the financial cycle with uncertainty estimates: a wavelet proposition," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 298-304.
    12. Tng Boon Hwa & Mala Raghavan & Teh Tian Huey, 2017. "Macroeconomic surveillance of portfolio flows and its real effects: Malaysia's experience," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the South African Stock Market," Working Papers 201624, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Sami Alpanda & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2016. "Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?," Staff Working Papers 16-19, Bank of Canada.
    15. Meller, Barbara & Metiu, Norbert, 2017. "The synchronization of credit cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 98-111.
    16. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part II: Financial cycles," Economics wp72, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    17. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2017. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," ESRB Working Paper Series 45, European Systemic Risk Board.
    18. Balcilar, Mehmet & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Date-stamping US housing market explosivity," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Claudio Battiati, 2017. "R&D, growth, and macroprudential policy in an economy undergoing boom-bust cycles," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 48, Bank of Lithuania.
    20. Rey, Hélène & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Drumond, Inês, 2017. "Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 187-207.
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    1. Joanna Stawska & Katarzyna Miszczyńska, 2017. "The Impact of the European Central Bank’s Interest Rates on Investments in the Euro Area," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 51-72.
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    3. Guay Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2016. "Non-Linearities in the Relationship between House Prices and Interest Rates: Implications for Monetary Policy," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2016n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
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    6. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 31-58, Summer.
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    10. Florian Léon, 2019. "Household Credit and Growth: International Evidence," DEM Discussion Paper Series 19-02, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
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    114. Zoë Venter, 2021. "Honing in on Housing," Working Papers REM 2021/0163, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
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    4. Levin, Andrew T., 2014. "The design and communication of systematic monetary policy strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 52-69.

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    102. Christian Matthes & Regis Barnichon, 2015. "Measuring the Non-Linear Effects of Monetary Policy," 2015 Meeting Papers 49, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    103. Jiang, Lunan & Chen, Yinghui & Zhang, Lin, 2024. "Monetary policy shocks and firm investment decisions: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    104. Bareille, François & Wolfersberger, Julien & Zavalloni, Matteo, 2023. "Institutions and conservation: The case of protected areas," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    105. Kaixing Huang, 2024. "Fertility and long‐term economic growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1152-1171, July.
    106. Miescu, Mirela & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2024. "Non-linear Dynamics of Oil Supply News Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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    108. Stockwell, Thomas, 2023. "Should models of monetary policy asymmetry include interaction terms?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    109. Cafora, Alfonso & Romano, Antonio Angelo & Ronghi, Monica & Giuseppe, Scandurra, 2017. "Substituting fossil energy sources: the role of the climate funds and effects on the economic growth," MPRA Paper 82373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    110. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2023. "State-dependent effects of the unconventional monetary policy in stock markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

  27. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 4431, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," NBER Working Papers 24154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kristijan Kotarski & Milan Deskar-Škrbiæ, 2016. "Transcending the new macroeconomic orthodoxy in the Eurozone: a Post-Keynesian view," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 419-441.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld, 2013. "On Keeping Your Powder Dry: Fiscal Foundations of Financial and Price Stability," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 31, pages 25-38, November.
    4. Alberto Caruso & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403269, HAL.
    5. Clément Mathonnat & Alexandru Minea & Marcel Voia, 2022. "Does more finance lead to longer crises?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 111-135, January.
    6. Caner, Mehmet & Fan, Qingliang & Grennes, Thomas, 2021. "Partners in debt: An endogenous non-linear analysis of the effects of public and private debt on growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 694-711.
    7. Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2019. "Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy," IMF Working Papers 2019/170, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    9. Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2015. "Excess Finance and Growth: Don't Lose Sight of Expansions !," Working Papers 2015-31, CEPII research center.
    10. Affinito, Massimiliano & Albareto, Giorgio & Santioni, Raffaele, 2022. "Purchases of sovereign debt securities by banks during the crisis: The role of balance sheet conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Jung, Alexander, 2020. "An empirical analysis of loan supply and demand in the euro area," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 187-201.
    12. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "In sickness and in debt: The COVID-19 impact on sovereign credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1251-1274.
    13. Scott Davis & Adrienne Mack & Wesley Phoa & Anne Vandenabeele, 2014. "Credit Booms, Banking Crises, and the Current Account," Working Papers 292014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "What drives the duration of credit booms?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1531-1549, January.
    15. Javier Andres & Oscar Arce & Dominik Thaler & Carlos Thomas, 2020. "When Fiscal Consolidation Meets Private Deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 214-233, July.
    16. Vitor Castro & Boris Fisera, 2022. "Determinants of the Duration of Economic Recoveries: The Role of ´Too Much Finance´," Working Papers IES 2022/33, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2022.
    17. Eric Monnet & Miklos Vari, 2023. "A Dilemma between Liquidity Regulation and Monetary Policy: some History and Theory," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03954090, HAL.
    18. Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe & Lode Vereeck & Johan Vanovertveldt, 2015. "Does debt predict growth? An empirical analysis of the relationship between total debt and economic output," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 4(2), pages 79-103, December.
    19. Moritz Schularick & Bjorn Richter & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 843, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Jung, Alexander & Carcel Villanova, Hector, 2020. "The empirical properties of euro area M3, 1980-2017," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 37-49.
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    22. Maria Manuel Campos & Cristina Checherita-Westphal, 2019. "Economic consequences of high public debt and challenges ahead for the euro area," Working Papers o201904, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    23. Guillaume Bazot, 2023. "Deregulation and Financial Intermediation Cost: An International Comparison," Post-Print hal-04278928, HAL.
    24. Victor Degorce & Eric Monnet, 2024. "The Great Depression as a Savings Glut," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-04814139, HAL.
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    48. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2022. "On the heterogeneous link between public debt and economic growth," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    49. Martin Kuncl, 2016. "Fragility of Resale Markets for Securitized Assets and Policy of Asset Purchases," Staff Working Papers 16-46, Bank of Canada.
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    57. Luigi Guiso & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno & Helios Herrera, 2021. "The Financial Drivers of Populism in Europe," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21166, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    58. Eric Monnet & Miklos Vari, 2019. "Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy," IMF Working Papers 2019/176, International Monetary Fund.
    59. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 430-443.
    60. Claudio Borio & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "Is Monetary Policy Less Effective When Interest Rates Are Persistently Low?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    61. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2015. "Going to Extremes: Politics after Financial Crises, 1870-2014," CESifo Working Paper Series 5553, CESifo.
    62. Schularick, Moritz & Ferguson, Niall & Schaab, Andreas, 2015. "Central Bank Balance Sheets: Expansion and Reduction since 1900," CEPR Discussion Papers 10635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    63. Gómez Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2019. "Re-examining the debt-growth nexus: A grouped fixed-effect approach," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 374, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    64. Marjan Petreski, 2024. "The Fiscal Space And The Fiscal Stimulus During Crisis In The Western Balkans," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 69(242), pages 7-25, July – Se.
    65. Jay C. Shambaugh & Michael R. Strain, 2021. "The Recovery from the Great Recession: A Long, Evolving Expansion," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 695(1), pages 28-48, May.
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    67. Stephan Luck & Paul Schempp, 2014. "Outside Liquidity, Rollover Risk, and Government Bonds," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2014_14, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    68. Nicolas Caramp & Sanjay R Singh, 2023. "Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2822-2879.
    69. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2018. "Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 617-664, December.
    70. Ms. Wenjie Chen & Mr. Mico Mrkaic & Mr. Malhar S Nabar, 2019. "The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2019/083, International Monetary Fund.
    71. de Ridder, M. & Pfajfar, D., 2017. "Policy Shocks and Wage Rigidities: Empirical Evidence from Regional Effects of National Shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1717, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    72. Presbitero, Andrea & Eberhardt, Markus, 2021. "Commodity Prices and Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 15959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    73. Zheng, Huanhuan, 2023. "Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    74. Grégory Levieuge & Yannick Lucotte & Florian Pradines-Jobet, 2019. "The Cost of Banking Crises: Does the Policy Framework Matter?," Working papers 712, Banque de France.
    75. Giuseppe Cascarino & Federica Ciocchetta & Stefano Pietrosanti & Ivan Quaglia, 2025. "Forecasting corporate default probabilities: a local logit approach for scenario analysis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 909, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    76. Benedetta Bianchi, 2016. "Sovereign Risk Premia and the International Balance Sheet: Lessons from the European Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 471-493, July.
    77. Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "How do financial cycles affect public debt cycles?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 425-460, March.
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    86. Paraskevi K. Salamaliki & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2024. "Fiscal Space and Policy Response to Financial Crises: Market Access and Deficit Concerns," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 323-361, April.
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    88. García Osma, Beatriz & Mora, Araceli & Porcuna-Enguix, Luis, 2019. "Prudential supervisors’ independence and income smoothing in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 156-176.
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    93. Comín, Francisco & Cuevas, Joaquim, 2017. "The Deadly Embrace Between The Banks And The State In Spain, 1850-2015," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 387-414, December.
    94. Ablam Estel Apeti & Jean-Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "Did Fiscal Space Foster Covid-19's Fiscal Stimuli ?," Post-Print hal-03351634, HAL.
    95. Ryan R. Brady, 2021. "Direct Forecasting for Applied Regional Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 67, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
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    97. Paul Rudel, 2024. "Loan Supply Shocks, Prudential Regulation, and the Business Cycle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202409, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
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  28. Òscar Jordà, 2013. "Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce," Working Paper Series 2013-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Harri Ponka, 2017. "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, August.

  29. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2013. "Shocks and Adjustments," Working Paper Series 2013-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2017. "On The Interaction Between Economic Growth And Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 982-1022, June.
    2. Elva Bova & Christina Kolerus & Sampawende Tapsoba, 2015. "A fiscal job? An analysis of fiscal policy and the labor market," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Claudia Foroni & Francesco Furlanetto, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun’s Law," Working Paper 2022/4, Norges Bank.
    4. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Working Paper Series 2014-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," NBER Working Papers 23543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert Anderton & Boele Bonthuis, 2015. "Downward Wage Rigidities in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 2015-09, University of Nottingham, GEP.

  30. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," 2013 Meeting Papers 71, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Leveraged Bubbles," CESifo Working Paper Series 5489, CESifo.
    3. KLEIN, Mathias & POLATTIMUR, Hamza & WINKLER, Roland, 2020. "Fiscal spending multipliers over the household leverage cycle," Working Papers 2020007, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
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    46. Ortmans, Aymeric & Tripier, Fabien, 2021. "COVID-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: When did the ECB stop the spread?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
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    49. Ioanna Bardaka & Ioannis Bournakis & Georgia Kaplanoglou, 2018. "Total factor productivity (TFP) and fiscal consolidation: how harmful is austerity?," Working Papers 255, Bank of Greece.
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    247. Maarten De Ridder & Simona Hannon & Damjan Pfajfar, 2020. "The Multiplier Effect of Education Expenditure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    248. Schroeder, Christofer & Stracca, Livio, 2023. "Pollution havens? Carbon taxes, globalization, and the geography of emissions," Working Paper Series 2862, European Central Bank.
    249. Esin Serin & Nicholas Stern & Anna Valero & John Van Reenen & Bob Ward & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2024. "Boosting growth and productivity in the United Kingdom through investments in the sustainable economy," CEP Reports 43, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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    252. Santos, Mariana, 2020. "The impact of labor income tax progressivity on the fiscal multipliers in the context of fiscal consolidation programs," MPRA Paper 98736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    256. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2025. "Time-varying Local Projections with Stochastic Volatility," Discussion Paper Series 761, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    257. Marrazzo, Marco & Terzi, Alessio, 2017. "Structural reform waves and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2111, European Central Bank.
    258. François Geerolf & Thomas Grjebine, 2018. "Property Tax Shocks and Macroeconomics," Working Papers 2018-03, CEPII research center.
    259. Kaehler, Juergen & Weber, Christoph S., 2023. "Inflation in the aftermath of financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    260. Yener Coskun & Nicholas Apergis & Esra Alp Coskun, 2022. "Nonlinear responses of consumption to wealth, income, and interest rate shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1293-1335, September.
    261. Pablo A. Gluzmann & Martin M. Guzman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2018. "An Analysis of Puerto Rico's Debt Relief Needs to Restore Debt Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 25256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    262. Staffa, Ruben, 2022. "The effects of sovereign risk: A high frequency identification based on news ticker data," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    263. George Chouliarakis & Tadeusz Gwiazdowski & Sophia Lazaretou, 2016. "The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Output in Times of Crisis and Prosperity: Historical Evidence From Greece ," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 230, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    264. Esra Alp Coşkun & Hakan Kahyaoglu & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2023. "Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior? Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.
    265. Benatti, Nicola & Groiss, Martin & Kelly, Petra & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "The impact of environmental regulation on clean innovation: are there crowding out effects?," Working Paper Series 2946, European Central Bank.
    266. Klein, Mathias, 2016. "Austerity and Private Debt," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145681, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    267. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Koloskova, Ksenia & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted economic contractions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-52.
    268. Milivojevic,Lazar, 2023. "Natural Disasters and Fiscal Drought," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10298, The World Bank.
    269. João Tovar Jalles & Bryn Battersby & Rachel Lee, 2024. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Announcements: Early Evidence from COVID-19," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 623-658, July.
    270. José Antonio Ocampo-Gaviria & Carlos Eduardo Caballero Argáez & María del Pilar Esguerra-Umaña & Miguel Urrutia-Montoya & Antonio Hernández-Gamarra, 2023. "Ensayos de historia económica. Cien años del Banco de la República," Books, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, number 2023-isbn:9789586644730 edited by Luis I.Jácome & Samuel Pienknagura & Leonardo Villar Gómez & Esguerra Umaña Pilar, December.
    271. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Green Recovery Programmes. Conceptual Framing and a Review of the Empirical Literature," WIFO Working Papers 646, WIFO.
    272. Beck, Roland & Duca, Ioana A. & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Medium term treatment and side effects of quantitative easing: international evidence," Working Paper Series 2229, European Central Bank.
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    274. Imre Ersoy & Talha Yanmaz, 2016. "The Impact of Austerity Measures on Government Borrowing in GIIPS," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(12), pages 106-112, December.
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  33. Òscar Jordà & Malte Knuppel & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," Working Paper Series 2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Dimitris N. Politis & Anders Rahbek & Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2015. "Recent developments in bootstrap methods for dependent data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 352-376, May.
    2. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    3. Kung, Ko-Lun & MacMinn, Richard D. & Kuo, Weiyu & Tsai, Chenghsien Jason, 2022. "Multi-population mortality modeling: When the data is too much and not enough," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 41-55.
    4. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    5. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
    6. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    7. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    8. Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts Of A Vector Of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition," Working Papers 2014-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    9. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    10. Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
    11. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Thomai Filippeli, 2011. "Theoretical Priors for BVAR Models & Quasi-Bayesian DSGE Model Estimation," 2011 Meeting Papers 396, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Diego Fresoli, 2022. "Bootstrap VAR forecasts: The effect of model uncertainties," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 279-293, March.
    14. Filippeli, Thomai & Harrison, Richard & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "DSGE-based Priors for BVARs & Quasi-Bayesian DSGE Estimation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/5, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Knüppel, Malte, 2018. "Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 105-116.
    16. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    17. Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2012. "Bootstrap joint prediction regions," ECON - Working Papers 064, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2013.
    18. Filippeli, Thomai & Harrison, Richard & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "DSGE-based priors for BVARs and quasi-Bayesian DSGE estimation," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 1-27.
    19. Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    20. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

  34. Oscar Jorda & Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor, 2012. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles and Crises," Working Papers 172, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. James M. Nason & Ellis W. Tallman, 2012. "Business cycles and financial crises: the roles of credit supply and demand shocks," Working Papers 12-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Konstantinos N. Baltas, 2025. "The nexus between bank efficiency and leverage," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 811-839, January.
    3. William R. White, 2013. "Is Monetary Policy a Science? The Interaction of Theory and Practice over the Last 50 Years," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, in: Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan (ed.), 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, chapter 3, pages 73-116, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    4. Binici, Mahir & Köksal, Bülent & Orman, Cüneyt, 2012. "Stock return comovement and systemic risk in the Turkish banking system," MPRA Paper 38663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    6. Klaus Abberger & Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Chang Woon Nam & Gernot Nerb & Siegfried Schönherr, 2014. "How Can the Crisis Vulnerability of Emerging Economies Be Reduced?," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    7. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    8. Òscar Jordà, 2013. "Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce," Working Paper Series 2013-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Fikret Cauševic, 2013. "Ekonomska teorija i ekonomska politika," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 19(2), pages 399-426.
    10. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    11. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 210-221, December.
    12. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Deflation and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015-25, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    14. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 19414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Schularick, Moritz, 2012. "Public debt and financial crises in the twentieth century," Discussion Papers 2012/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    16. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa, 2022. "How did house and stock prices respond to different crisis episodes since the 1870s?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Frauke Schleer & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Financial Sector and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: Non-linearities Reconsidered," SCEPA working paper series. 2014-5, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    18. Antonio Fatás & Lawrence H. Summers, 2017. "The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Scott Davis & Adrienne Mack & Wesley Phoa & Anne Vandenabeele, 2014. "Credit Booms, Banking Crises, and the Current Account," Working Papers 292014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    20. Ignacio Lozano & Alexander Guarín, 2014. "Fragilidad Bancaria en Colombia: Un Análisis Basado en las Hojas de Balance," Borradores de Economia 813, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Martin Hodula & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2022. "Finance, growth and (macro)prudential policy: European evidence," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 537-571, May.
    22. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2016. "Necessity as the Mother of Invention: Monetary Policy after the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 22735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "External Imbalances and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 18606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2013. "Does expansionary monetary policy cause asset price booms? some historical and empirical evidence," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(2), pages 04-52, August.
    26. Željko Šain, 2013. "Uvodna rijec dekana prof. dr. sc. Željka Šaina," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 19(2), pages 381-382.
    27. SERGI BASCO & John P. Tang, 2017. "The Samurai Bond: Credit Supply And Economic Growth In Pre-War Japan," CEH Discussion Papers 05, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    28. Oulton, Nicholas & Sebastiá-Barriel, María, 2013. "Long and short-term effects of the financial crisis on labour productivity, capital and output," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 48926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    29. Caroline Mehigan, 2016. "Bilateral Adjustment of Bank Assets: Boom and Bust," Trinity Economics Papers tep0616, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    30. R. Barrell & D. Karim & C. Macchiarelli, 2020. "Towards an understanding of credit cycles: do all credit booms cause crises?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(10), pages 978-993, July.
    31. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Cross of Euros," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 167-192, Summer.
    32. Villa, Stefania, 2013. "Financial frictions in the euro area: a Bayesian assessment," Working Paper Series 1521, European Central Bank.
    33. Anton Glavinic, 2013. "Oblikovanje matematickog modela za analizu meduodnosa izmedu odabranih makroekonomskih velicina," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 19(2), pages 297-310.
    34. Ignacio Lozano & Alexander Guarín, 2014. "Banking Fragility in Colombia: An Empirical Analysis Based on Balance Sheets," Borradores de Economia 813i, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    35. Franz Alonso Hamann Salcedo & Rafael Hernández & Luisa Fernanda Silva Escobar & Fernando Tenjo Galarza, 2013. "Credit Pro-cyclicality and Bank Balance Sheet in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 10695, Banco de la Republica.
    36. Ms. Sally Chen & Mr. Philip Liu & Andrea M. Maechler & Chris Marsh & Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs & Mr. Hyun S Shin, 2012. "Exploring the Dynamics of Global Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 2012/246, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types, and Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 9329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. Gurnain Pasricha, 2017. "Policy Rules for Capital Controls," Staff Working Papers 17-42, Bank of Canada.
    39. Asian Development Bank Institute, 2015. "Asian Development Outlook 2015 Financing Asia’s Future Growth," Working Papers id:6666, eSocialSciences.
    40. Dendramis, Yiannis & Kapetanios, George & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Shifts in volatility driven by large stock market shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 130-147.
    41. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068 [rev.], ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    42. Afrin, Sadia, 2017. "The role of financial shocks in business cycles with a liability side financial friction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 249-269.
    43. Zoran Jašic, 2013. "Diskusija na znanstvenom skupu: Regionalni razvoj - prioritet EU," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 19(2), pages 349-350.
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    116. Michalis Nikiforos, 2013. "Employment Recovery? after the Great Recession," Economics Policy Note Archive 13-03, Levy Economics Institute.
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    118. Azra Hadžiahmetovic, 2013. "Promocija knjige prof. dr. Dragoljuba Stojanova "Ekonomska kriza i kriza ekonomske znanosti: Quo vadis Economics"," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 19(2), pages 393-398.
    119. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "Did Credit Decouple from Output in the Great Moderation?," MPRA Paper 47424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    122. Giakas, Konstantinos, 2023. "Hysteresis, financial frictions and monetary policy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
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    127. Veselin Draškovic, 2013. "Diskusija na skupu u Zagrebu 24.10.2012," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 19(2), pages 345-348.
    128. Concha Betrán & María A. Pons, 2013. "Understanding Spanish Financial crises, 1850-2000: What determined their severity?," Working Papers 0048, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
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    131. Franz Hamann & Rafael Hernández & Luisa Silva & Fernando Tenjo G., 2014. "Leverage Pro-cyclicality and Bank Balance Sheet in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(73), pages 50-76, July.
    132. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    140. Veselin Draškovic, 2013. "Promocija knjige prof. dr. sc. Dragoljuba Stojanova: Ekonomska kriza i kriza ekonomske znanosti," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 19(2), pages 387-392.
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    Cited by:

    1. Broadberry, Stephen & Lennard, Jason, 2023. "European Business Cycles and Economic Growth, 1300-2000," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 683, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    2. Ezgi Kaya & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos & Nezih Guner, 2015. "Gender Gaps in Spain: Policies and Outcomes over the Last Three Decades," Working Papers 751, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Jéfferson A. Colombo & Martinho R. Lazzari, 2020. "Same, but different? A state-level chronology of the 2014-2016 Brazilian economic recession and comparisons with the GFC and (early data on) COVID-19," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2445-2456.
    4. Claudia Pacella, 2020. "Essays on Forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/307579, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2022. "Dating Business Cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700-2010," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-16, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    6. Ricci L. Reber & Sarah J. Pack, 2014. "Methods of Temporal Disaggregation for Estimating Output of the Insurance Industry," BEA Working Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    7. Valerie Grossman & Adrienne Mack & Enrique Martínez García, 2014. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980-2012)," Globalization Institute Working Papers 169, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Saldarriaga, Miguel, 2018. "Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters," Working Papers 2018-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    9. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    10. Hanna, Alan J., 2018. "A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 93-110.

  36. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Leveraged Bubbles," CESifo Working Paper Series 5489, CESifo.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 19506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2023. "The effects of fiscal institutions on fiscal adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers' loss function and the evaluation of early warning systems," Working Paper Series 1509, European Central Bank.
    5. Gaston Giordana & Michael H. Ziegelmeyer, 2022. "Using household-level data to guide borrower-based macro-prudential policy," BCL working papers 161, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    6. Òscar Jordà, 2013. "Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce," Working Paper Series 2013-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 19414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bruno Spilak & Wolfgang Karl Hardle, 2020. "Tail-risk protection: Machine Learning meets modern Econometrics," Papers 2010.03315, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    9. Buckmann, Marcus & Gallego Marquez, Paula & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Kapadia, Sujit & Rismanchi, Katie, 2023. "The more the merrier? Evidence on the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 4993, CESifo.
    11. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Paper 2017/24, Norges Bank.
    13. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2016. "If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 342-386, June.
    14. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
    15. Taylor, Alan M. & Davis, Josh, 2019. "The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 14115, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring countercyclical capital buffers: the role of credit aggregates," BIS Working Papers 355, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Felipe Benguria & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 509-526, December.
    18. Bjorn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Paul Wachtel, 2018. "When to Lean Against the Wind," Working Papers 18-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    19. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    20. Çakmaklı, Cem & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 650-668.
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    22. Maas, Benedikt, 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting US recessions: Evidence from the Super Learner," MPRA Paper 96408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    24. Detken, Carsten & Weeken, Olaf & Alessi, Lucia & Bonfim, Diana & Boucinha, Miguel & Castro, Christian & Frontczak, Sebastian & Giordana, Gaston & Giese, Julia & Wildmann, Nadya & Kakes, Jan & Klaus, B, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 5, European Systemic Risk Board.
    25. Valerie Grossman & Adrienne Mack & Enrique Martínez García, 2014. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980-2012)," Globalization Institute Working Papers 169, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    26. Bowen Fu, 2019. "Bubbles and crises: Replicating the Anundsen et al. (2016) results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 822-826, August.
    27. Kirschenmann, Karolin & Malinen, Tuomas & Nyberg, Henri, 2016. "The risk of financial crises: Is there a role for income inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 161-180.
    28. Buckmann, Marcus & Gallego Marquez, Paula & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Kapadia, Sujit & Rismanchi, Katie, 2021. "The more the merrier? Evidence from the global financial crisis on the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation," Bank of England working papers 905, Bank of England.
    29. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

  37. Oscar Jorda & Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge, 2010. "A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding," Working Papers 216, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    3. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Andrea Giusto & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Nowcasting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points with Vector Quantization," Working Papers daleconwp2013-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    5. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    6. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    7. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Technology shocks and stock returns: A long-term perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 67-83.
    8. Kroencke, Tim A., 2022. "Recessions and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 61-77.

  38. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Knüppel, Malte & Jordà , Òscar, 2010. "Empirical Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Path-Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 7797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Dimitris N. Politis & Anders Rahbek & Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2015. "Recent developments in bootstrap methods for dependent data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 352-376, May.
    2. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    3. Kung, Ko-Lun & MacMinn, Richard D. & Kuo, Weiyu & Tsai, Chenghsien Jason, 2022. "Multi-population mortality modeling: When the data is too much and not enough," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 41-55.
    4. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    5. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
    6. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    7. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    8. Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts Of A Vector Of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition," Working Papers 2014-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    9. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    10. Ilhan Kilic & Faruk Balli, 2024. "Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1649-1689, October.
    11. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Thomai Filippeli, 2011. "Theoretical Priors for BVAR Models & Quasi-Bayesian DSGE Model Estimation," 2011 Meeting Papers 396, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Diego Fresoli, 2022. "Bootstrap VAR forecasts: The effect of model uncertainties," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 279-293, March.
    14. Filippeli, Thomai & Harrison, Richard & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2018. "DSGE-based Priors for BVARs & Quasi-Bayesian DSGE Estimation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/5, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Knüppel, Malte, 2018. "Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 105-116.
    16. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    17. Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2012. "Bootstrap joint prediction regions," ECON - Working Papers 064, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2013.
    18. Filippeli, Thomai & Harrison, Richard & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "DSGE-based priors for BVARs and quasi-Bayesian DSGE estimation," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 1-27.
    19. Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Model uncertainty and the forecast accuracy of ARMA models: A survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    20. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

  39. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," NBER Working Papers 16567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," NBER Working Papers 24154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. James M. Nason & Ellis W. Tallman, 2012. "Business cycles and financial crises: the roles of credit supply and demand shocks," Working Papers 12-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Zuzana Rakovska & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Martin Hodula, 2020. "The Power of Sentiment: Irrational Beliefs of Households and Consumer Loan Dynamics," Working Papers 2020/10, Czech National Bank.
    5. Kirti, Divya, 2018. "Lending standards and output growth," ESRB Working Paper Series 79, European Systemic Risk Board.
    6. António R. Antunes & Diana Bonfim & Nuno Monteiro & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2014. "Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises: Exploring new Data and Tools," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Ma, Chang & Rogers, John H. & Zhou, Sili, 2020. "Modern pandemics: Recession and recovery," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2020. "Forecasting with the damped trend model using the structural approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    9. Fabrizio Perri & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2011. "International Recessions," NBER Working Papers 17201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hessou, Hélyoth T.S. & Lensink, Robert & Soumaré, Issouf & Tchakoute Tchuigoua, Hubert, 2021. "Provisioning over the business cycle: Some insights from the microfinance industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 19506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Giannoula Karamichailidou & David G. Mayes & Hanno Stremmel, 2018. "Achieving a balance between the avoidance of banking problems and their resolution—can financial cycle dynamics predict bank distress?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(1), pages 18-32, January.
    13. Valentina Aprigliano & Danilo Liberati, 2019. "Using credit variables to date business cycle and to estimate the probabilities of recession in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1229, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Kalatie, Simo & Laakkonen, Helinä & Tölö, Eero, 2015. "Indicators used in setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland.
    16. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "Financial cycles and co-movements between the real economy, finance and asset price dynamics in large-scale crises," FinMaP-Working Papers 61, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    17. Daniela Marchettini & Mr. Rodolfo Maino, 2015. "Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries: Balancing Financial Stability and Development," IMF Working Papers 2015/190, International Monetary Fund.
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    22. Gerhard Illing & Yoshiyasu Ono & Matthias Schlegl, 2016. "Asset Prices and Leverage in a Model of Persistent Stagnation," ISER Discussion Paper 0988, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
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    25. Norman Loayza & Amine Ouazad & Romain Ranciere, 2017. "Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?," Working Papers 114, Peruvian Economic Association.
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      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE Working Papers hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," Working Papers hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," Post-Print hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459084, HAL.
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    50. Sabri Boubaker & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Vanja Piljak & Andreas Savvides, 2018. "Financial Development, Government Bond Returns, and Stability: International Evidence," Working Papers 2018-007, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
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    52. Masud Alam, 2024. "Volatility in U.S. Housing Sector and the REIT Equity Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 505-544, October.
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    56. Can Xu & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2021. "Does Household Borrowing Reduce the Trade Balance? Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 9123, CESifo.
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  40. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar & Chong, Yanping, 2010. "The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 7902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    1. Grisse, Christian & Scheidegger, Fabian, 2021. "Covariability of real exchange rates and fundamentals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
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    5. Valerie Mignon & Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou & Florian Morvillier, 2020. "Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database," Post-Print hal-03101442, HAL.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    7. Coen N. Teulings & Nick Zubanov, 2010. "Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-040/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 07 Jul 2011.
    8. BERTINELLI, Luisito & CARDI, Olivier & RESTOUT, Romain, 2020. "Relative Productivity And Search Unemployment In An Open Economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    9. Bellia, Mario & Christensen, Kim & Kolokolov, Aleksey & Pelizzon, Loriana & Renò, Roberto, 2022. "Do designated market makers provide liquidity during a flash crash?," SAFE Working Paper Series 270, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2022.
    10. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2017. "An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 297-304.
    11. Joel Hasbrouck, 2021. "Price Discovery in High Resolution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 395-430.
    12. Tomoo INOUE & Tatsuyoshi OKIMOTO, 2022. "Exploring the Dynamic Relationship between Mobility and the Spread of COVID-19, and the Role of Vaccines," Discussion papers 22011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Michael D. Bordo & Ehsan U. Choudhri & Giorgio Fazio & Ronald MacDonald, 2014. "The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Balassa-Samuelson Effects Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 20228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Dahlquist, Magnus & Pénasse, Julien, 2022. "The missing risk premium in exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 697-715.
    15. Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Wenlang Zhang & Tommy Wu, 2012. "How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China's Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(6), pages 29-54, November.
    16. Hongjun Li & Zhongjian Lin & Cheng Hsiao, 2015. "Testing purchasing power parity hypothesis: a semiparametric varying coefficient approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 427-438, February.
    17. KAFANDO, Namalguebzanga, 2014. "L'industrialisation de l'Afrique: l'importance des facteurs structurels et du régime de change [The industrialization of Africa: the importance of structural factors and exchange rate regime]," MPRA Paper 68736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Peter Dolton & Arno Hantzsche, 2024. "Follow the leader? The long‐run interaction between public and private sector wage growth in the UK," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(363), pages 837-879, July.
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    20. Fischer, Christoph & Hossfeld, Oliver, 2014. "A consistent set of multilateral productivity approach-based indicators of price competitiveness – Results for Pacific Rim economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 152-169.
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    23. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014. "Is the Rand Really Decoupled from Economic Fundamentals?," Working Papers 201439, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    24. Montecino, Juan Antonio, 2015. "Capital controls and the real exchange rate: Do controls promote disequilibria?," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2015-02, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    25. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2017. "Redistributive Innovation Policy, Inequality and Efficiency," Working Papers 201768, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    26. Taya Dumrongrittikul & Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2014. "The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Perspective," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    27. Javier Cravino & Samuel E. Haltenhof, 2017. "Real Exchange Rates, Income per Capita, and Sectoral Input Shares," NBER Working Papers 23705, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Christoph Fischer, 2019. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Estimates Across Time and Space," Globalization Institute Working Papers 362, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    30. Roni Frish, 2016. "The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Term," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.03, Bank of Israel.
    31. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2017. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 201769, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    32. Qing, He & Korhonen, Iikka & Zongxin, Qian, 2017. "Monetary policy transmission with two exchange rates and a single currency: The Chinese experience," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2017, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    33. Afonso Óscar, 2019. "The role of IPRs on prices, wages and growth in a two country directed technical change model," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-27, January.
    34. Nihar Shah, 2022. "Doubly heterogeneous monetary spillovers," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 126-150, August.
    35. Nathaniel P. S. Cook & Jason C. Jones, 2021. "The African Growth and Opportunity Act and growth in sub‐Saharan Africa: A local projection approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 234-261, January.
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    37. Richard Frensch & Achim Schmillen, 2013. "The Penn Effect and Transition: The New EU Member States in International Perspective," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(1), pages 99-119, March.
    38. Robert J. Sonora & Josip Tica, 2014. "Harrod, Balassa, and Samuelson (re)visit Eastern Europe," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, December.
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    40. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," NBER Working Papers 15518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Oscar Afonso & Manuela Magalhães, 2021. "The role of intellectual property rights in a directed technical change model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2142-2176, April.
    42. Chen, Show-Lin & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2020. "Revisiting the persistence of real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    43. O’Brien, Thomas J. & Ruiz de Vargas, Santiago, 2019. "Currency indexes and consistent currency misvaluation: Illustrations using Big Mac data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 464-474.
    44. Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Naoya Kishi, 2024. "Changes in the Global Economic Landscape and Issues for Japan's Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    45. He, Qing & Korhonen, Iikka & Qian, Zongxin, 2021. "Monetary policy transmission with two exchange rates of a single currency: The Chinese experience," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 558-576.
    46. Jian Song, 2024. "Environmental pollution, manufacturing cost disease and structural change," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 21169-21195, August.
    47. Byrne, David & Foster, Sorcha, 2023. "Transmission of monetary policy: Bank interest rate pass-through in Ireland and the euro area," Economic Letters 3/EL/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    48. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2016. "The Penn Effect Revisited: New Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 70593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2016. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(4), pages 3-25, October-D.
    50. Clemens Struck & Adnan Velic, 2016. "Relative Prices, Non-Homothetic Preferences, and Product Quality," Trinity Economics Papers tep1516, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

  41. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Working Papers 16491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Rongju Zhang & Mark Aarons & Gregoire Loeper, 2019. "Optimal FX Hedge Tenor with Liquidity Risk," Papers 1903.06346, arXiv.org.
    2. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2016. "If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 342-386, June.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2015. "Currency carry trades in Latin America," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 81.
    5. Elias, Nikolaos & Smyrnakis, Dimitris & Tzavalis, Elias, 2024. "The forward premium anomaly and the currency carry trade hypothesis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 203-218.
    6. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali & Xiaochun Liu, 2015. "Foreign exchange predictability during the financial crisis: implications for carry trade profitability," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Shehadeh, Ali & Erdős, Péter & Li, Youwei & Moore, Michael, 2016. "US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of “Cheap Money”," MPRA Paper 70770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    9. Pavel Trunin & Sergey Narkevich, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble to Become Regional Reserve Currency," Working Papers 118, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    10. Narkevich, Siarhei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble as a Regional Reserve Currency," Published Papers dok2, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    11. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    12. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim & Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Foreign exchange predictability and the carry trade: A decomposition approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-211.
    14. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    15. Reitz, Stefan & Umlandt, Dennis, 2021. "Currency returns and FX dealer balance sheets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

  42. Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Òscar, 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," CEPR Discussion Papers 7568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    1. De Bock, Reinout & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2015. "The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 218-234.
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    3. Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "The ‘Forward Premium Puzzle’ and the Sovereign Default risk," Post-Print hal-01385839, HAL.
    4. Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Diversification role of currency momentum for carry trade: Evidence from financial crises," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-19.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    6. Copeland, Laurence & Lu, Wenna, 2016. "Dodging the steamroller: Fundamentals versus the carry trade," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 115-131.
    7. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," NBER Working Papers 16567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Egbers, Tom & Swinkels, Laurens, 2015. "Can implied volatility predict returns on the currency carry trade?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 14-26.
    9. Michael Melvin & Duncan Shand, 2017. "When Carry Goes Bad: The Magnitude, Causes, and Duration of Currency Carry Unwinds," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(1), pages 121-144, January.
    10. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2022. "The time-varying risk price of currency portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Mario Cerrato & Danyang Li & Zhekai Zhang, 2020. "Factor Investing and forex Portfolio Management," Working Papers 2020_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Hambuckers, J. & Ulm, M., 2023. "On the role of interest rate differentials in the dynamic asymmetry of exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Colacito, Riccardo & Riddiough, Steven J. & Sarno, Lucio, 2020. "Business cycles and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 659-678.
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    23. Malliaris, A.G. & Malliaris, Mary, 2011. "Are foreign currency markets interdependent? evidence from data mining technologies," MPRA Paper 35261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    25. Dahlquist, Magnus & Pénasse, Julien, 2022. "The missing risk premium in exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 697-715.
    26. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Paper 2017/24, Norges Bank.
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    39. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 357-387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 50-64.
    41. Christian Gayer & Alessandro Girardi & Andreas Reuter, 2016. "Replacing Judgment by Statistics: Constructing Consumer Confidence Indicators on the basis of Data-driven Techniques. The Case of the Euro Area," Working Papers LuissLab 16125, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
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    43. Elias, Nikolaos & Smyrnakis, Dimitris & Tzavalis, Elias, 2024. "The forward premium anomaly and the currency carry trade hypothesis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 203-218.
    44. Kim, Daehwan & Song, Chi-Young, 2014. "Country Fundamentals and Currency Excess Returns," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 18(2), pages 111-142, June.
    45. Emilio Colombo & Gianfranco Forte & Roberto Rossignoli, 2019. "Carry Trade Returns with Support Vector Machines," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 483-504, September.
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    47. Xue Jiang & Liyan Han & Yang Xu, 2021. "How does skewness perform in the Chinese commodity futures market?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1268-1285, August.
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    51. Tarek A Hassan & Rui C Mano, 2019. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-Currency World," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 397-450.
    52. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    53. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2014. "Out-of-Sample Evidence on the Returns to Currency Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 9852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    54. Kwas, Marek & Beckmann, Joscha & Rubaszek, Michał, 2024. "Are consensus FX forecasts valuable for investors?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 268-284.
    55. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali & Xiaochun Liu, 2015. "Foreign exchange predictability during the financial crisis: implications for carry trade profitability," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    56. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
    57. Alessio Anzuini & Fabio Fornari, 2012. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Carry Trade Activity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 468-488, August.
    58. Bozhechkova Alexandra & Trunin Pavel & Sinelnikova-Muryleva Elena & Petrova Diana & Chentsov Alexander, 2018. "Building of monetary and currency markets models," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 175P, pages 1-96.
    59. Jiang, Xue & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Currency strategies based on momentum, carry trade and skewness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 121-131.
    60. Mei-Li Shen & Cheng-Feng Lee & Hsiou-Hsiang Liu & Po-Yin Chang & Cheng-Hong Yang, 2021. "An Effective Hybrid Approach for Forecasting Currency Exchange Rates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, March.
    61. Alexandra Janssen & Rahel Studer, 2014. "The Swiss franc's honeymoon," ECON - Working Papers 170, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Jan 2017.
    62. Kimberly Berg & Nelson C. Mark, 2016. "Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns," Staff Working Papers 16-32, Bank of Canada.
    63. Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Funding Flows and Credit in Carry Trade Economies," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Matthew Lilley & Mark Manning (ed.),Liquidity and Funding Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    64. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2020. "Economic momentum and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 152-167.
    65. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 369-376.
    66. Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2021. "Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century," NBER Working Papers 28447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    67. Sarno, Lucio & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Paul, 2016. "Currency Value," CEPR Discussion Papers 11324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    68. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2019. "Carry trades and commodity risk factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 121-129.
    69. Gardberg, Malin, 2018. "Linking Net Foreign Portfolio Debt and Equity to Exchange Rate Movements," Working Paper Series 1246, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    70. Hasselgren, Anton & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Graham, Michael, 2020. "Speculator activity and the cross-asset predictability of FX returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    71. Jeremy Graveline & Irina Zviadadze & Mikhail Chernov, 2012. "Crash Risk in Currency Returns," 2012 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    72. Ian Martin, 2011. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Two-Country World," NBER Working Papers 17564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    73. Maas, Benedikt, 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting US recessions: Evidence from the Super Learner," MPRA Paper 96408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    74. Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2015. "Japan’s exorbitant privilege," Scholarly Articles 34299169, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    75. Feng, Wenjun & Zhang, Zhengjun, 2023. "Currency exchange rate predictability: The new power of Bitcoin prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    76. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Tebogo Maake, 2021. "The Relationship between Carry Trade and Asset Markets in South Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, July.
    77. Cavusoglu, Nevin & Goldberg, Michael D. & Stillwagon, Josh, 2021. "Currency returns and downside risk: Debt, volatility, and the gap from benchmark values," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    78. Sam Nasypbek & Scheherazade S Rehman, 2011. "Explaining the returns of active currency managers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 211-256, Bank for International Settlements.
    79. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    80. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
    81. Mikhail Chernov & Magnus Dahlquist & Lars Lochstoer, 2023. "Pricing Currency Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 693-730, April.
    82. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    83. Wenliang Guo, 2020. "Currency Regimes, Volatility Risks, and Carry Trades: The Option Value of Government Currency Intervention in Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 1-4.
    84. Cho, Dooyeon & Doblas-Madrid, Antonio, 2014. "Trade intensity and purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 194-209.
    85. Byrne, Joseph P. & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2021. "The conditional volatility premium on currency portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    86. Bowen Fu, 2019. "Bubbles and crises: Replicating the Anundsen et al. (2016) results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 822-826, August.
    87. Rubaszek, Michał & Beckmann, Joscha & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kwas, Marek, 2022. "Boosting carry with equilibrium exchange rate estimates," Working Paper Series 2731, European Central Bank.
    88. Kim Ristolainen & Tomi Roukka & Henri Nyberg, 2021. "A Thousand Words Tell More Than Just Numbers: Financial Crises and Historical Headlines," Discussion Papers 149, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    89. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim & Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Foreign exchange predictability and the carry trade: A decomposition approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-211.
    90. André Mollick & Tibebe Assefa, 2013. "Carry-trades on the yen and the Swiss franc: are they different?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(3), pages 402-423, July.
    91. Cepni, Oguzhan & Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Guney, Ibrahim Ethem & Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2023. "Do the carry trades respond to geopolitical risks? Evidence from BRICS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    92. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    93. Chernov, Mikhail & Graveline, Jeremy & Zviadadze, Irina, 2012. "Sources of Risk in Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 8745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    94. Mulder, Arjen & Tims, Ben, 2018. "Conditioning carry trades: Less risk, more return," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-19.
    95. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Lessons from the evolution of foreign exchange trading strategies," Working Papers 2011-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    96. Robert E. Cumby, 2010. "Comment on "Currency Carry Trades"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 389-394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    97. Dupuy, Philippe, 2021. "Risk-adjusted return managed carry trade," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    98. Grossmann, Axel & Paul, Chris & Simpson, Marc W., 2017. "The impact of exchange rate deviations from relative PPP equilibrium on the U.S. demand for foreign equities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 57-76.
    99. Kornél Kisgergely, 2012. "Is there a carry trade channel of monetary policy in emerging countries?," MNB Working Papers 2012/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    100. Auer, Benjamin R. & Hoffmann, Andreas, 2016. "Do carry trade returns show signs of long memory?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 201-208.
    101. Aydanur GACENER-ATIŞ & Deniz ERER, 2019. "Effects of Capital Flows on Carry Trade Activities: The Case of TurkeyAbstract: Carry trade is described as the capital flow coming into a country based on interest rate differential. A negative chang," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).
    102. Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.
    103. Javier Prado-Dominguez & Carlos Fernández-Herráiz, 2015. "A Sharpe-ratio-based measure for currencies," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 4(1), pages 67-75, June.
    104. Ding, Liang & Ma, Jun, 2013. "Portfolio reallocation and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3100-3124.
    105. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

  43. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 131, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
    2. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Dimitris N. Politis & Anders Rahbek & Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2015. "Recent developments in bootstrap methods for dependent data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 352-376, May.
    3. Matei Demetrescu & Mu-Chun Wang, 2014. "Incorporating Asymmetric Preferences into Fan Charts and Path Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 287-297, April.
    4. Dag Kolsrud, 2015. "A Time‐Simultaneous Prediction Box for a Multivariate Time Series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 675-693, December.
    5. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.
    6. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of Direct and Iterated Multistep Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2017-40, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2013. "Comparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201325, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    8. Grabowski, Daniel & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna, 2018. "Skewness-Adjusted Bootstrap Confidence Intervals and Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181590, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Stefan Bruder, 2014. "Comparing several methods to compute joint prediction regions for path forecasts generated by vector autoregressions," ECON - Working Papers 181, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Dec 2015.
    10. Ricardo J. Bessa & Corinna Möhrlen & Vanessa Fundel & Malte Siefert & Jethro Browell & Sebastian Haglund El Gaidi & Bri-Mathias Hodge & Umit Cali & George Kariniotakis, 2017. "Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-48, September.
    11. Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2018. "Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions of VAR Models: A Review," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1762, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
    14. Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
    15. Staszewska-Bystrova Anna, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
    16. Jeanne Aslak Petersen & Ditte Heide-Jørgensen & Nina Detlefsen & Trine Boomsma, 2016. "Short-term balancing of supply and demand in an electricity system: forecasting and scheduling," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 238(1), pages 449-473, March.
    17. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2009. "Multi-step forecasting in emerging economies: An investigation of the South African GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 602-628, July.
    19. Schüssler, Rainer & Trede, Mark, 2016. "Constructing minimum-width confidence bands," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 182-185.
    20. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2014. "Confidence Bands for Impulse Responses: Bonferroni versus Wald," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1354, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    22. Jeanne Aslak Petersen & Ditte Mølgård Heide-Jørgensen & Nina Kildegaard Detlefsen & Trine Krogh Boomsma, 2016. "Short-term balancing of supply and demand in an electricity system: forecasting and scheduling," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 238(1), pages 449-473, March.
    23. Christodoulakis, George, 2020. "Estimating the term structure of commodity market preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(3), pages 1146-1163.
    24. Pinto, Rui & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Matos, Manuel A., 2017. "Multi-period flexibility forecast for low voltage prosumers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2251-2263.
    25. Farooq Akram & Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Joint prediction bands for macroeconomic risk management," Working Paper 2016/7, Norges Bank.
    26. Carson, Richard T. & Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Parker, Roger, 2011. "Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 923-941, July.
    27. Ivan Svetunkov & Nikolaos Kourentzes & Rebecca Killick, 2024. "Multi-step estimators and shrinkage effect in time series models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 1203-1239, May.
    28. Serafin, Tomasz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2022. "Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    29. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    30. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Knüppel, Malte & Jordà , Òscar, 2010. "Empirical Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Path-Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 7797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Antoniadis, Anestis & Brossat, Xavier & Cugliari, Jairo & Poggi, Jean-Michel, 2016. "A prediction interval for a function-valued forecast model: Application to load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 939-947.
    32. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
    33. Paolo Vidoni, 2017. "Improved multivariate prediction regions for Markov process models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 26(1), pages 1-18, March.
    34. Òscar Jordà & Malte Knuppel & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," Working Paper Series 2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    35. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Rybiński, Krzysztof, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and natural language processing; The case of Russia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 546-562.
    36. Pinson, P. & Girard, R., 2012. "Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 12-20.
    37. Olga Isengildina‐Massa & Berna Karali & Todd H. Kuethe & Ani L. Katchova, 2021. "Joint Evaluation of the System of USDA's Farm Income Forecasts," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1140-1160, September.

  44. Oscar Jorda, 2007. "Inference for Impulse Responses," Working Papers 201, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ryan R. Brady, 2007. "Measuring the diffusion of housing prices across space and over time," Departmental Working Papers 19, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    2. Uluc Aysun & Ryan Brady & Adam Honig, 2009. "Financial Frictions and Monetary Transmission Strength: A Cross-Country Analysis," Working papers 2009-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2010.

  45. Òscar Jordà & Sharon Kozicki, 2007. "Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance," Staff Working Papers 07-56, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 131, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    2. Hall, Alastair R. & Inoue, Atsushi & Nason, James M. & Rossi, Barbara, 2012. "Information criteria for impulse response function matching estimation of DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 499-518.
    3. Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2011. "An efficient minimum distance estimator for DSGE models," Bank of England working papers 439, Bank of England.
    4. Poghosyan, Karen & Boldea, Otilia, 2013. "Structural versus matching estimation: Transmission mechanisms in Armenia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 136-148.
    5. Yu, Qionglei & McManus, Richard & Yen, Dorothy A. & Li, Xiang (Robert), 2020. "Tourism boycotts and animosity: A study of seven events," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Poghosyan, K., 2012. "Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia," Other publications TiSEM ad1a24c3-15e6-4f04-b338-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Francisco RUGE-MURCIA, 2014. "Indirect Inference Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamic General Equilibrium Models : With an Application to Asset Pricing under Skewness Risk," Cahiers de recherche 15-2014, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.

  46. Oscar Jorda & Sharon Kozicki, 2006. "Projection Minimum Distance: An Estimator for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," Working Papers 154, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Collignon, 2024. "The Tale of Two Economies: Inflationary Dynamics in the Euro Area and the US in the Context of Uncertainty," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Oscar Jorda, 2007. "Joint Inference and Counterfactual experimentation for Impulse Response Functions by Local Projections," Working Papers 107, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

  47. Oscar Jorda, 2003. "Random-Time Aggregation In Partial Ajustment Models," Working Papers 212, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "Stochastic Processes Subject To Time Scale Transformations: An Application To High-Frequency Fx Data," Working Papers 273, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    2. David Berger & Ricardo Caballero & Eduardo Engel, 2017. "Missing Aggregate Dynamics: On the Slow Convergence of Lumpy Adjustment Models," Working Papers wp446, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    3. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "Time-Scale Transformations of Discrete-Time Processes," Working Papers 65, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    4. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "Mixed frequency structural models: estimation, and policy analysis," Working Paper 2013/15, Norges Bank.
    5. Lin, Winston T. & Chen, Yueh H. & Hung, TingShu, 2019. "A partial adjustment valuation approach with stochastic and dynamic speeds of partial adjustment to measuring and evaluating the business value of information technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(2), pages 766-779.
    6. Rafal Raciborski, 2008. "Searching for additional sources of inflation persistence : the micro-price panel data approach," Working Paper Research 132, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Artem Prokhorov & Peter Radchenko & Alexander Semenov & Anton Skrobotov, 2024. "Change-Point Detection in Time Series Using Mixed Integer Programming," Papers 2408.05665, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    8. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2006. "The cyclicality of job loss and hiring," Working Papers 06-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Lin, Winston T. & Kao, Ta-Wei (Daniel), 2014. "The partial adjustment valuation approach with dynamic and variable speeds of adjustment to evaluating and measuring the business value of information technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 208-220.

  48. Oscar Jorda & James D. Hamilton, 2003. "A model for the federal funds rate target," Working Papers 176, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Juan J. Dolado & Ramón María‐Dolores, 2002. "Evaluating changes in the Bank of Spain's interest rate target: an alternative approach using marked point processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 159-182, May.
    2. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Thomas Mikosch & Anders Rahbek & Frederik Vilandt, 2022. "The Econometrics of Financial Duration Modeling," Papers 2208.02098, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    3. Maarten van Oordt, 2017. "Which Model to Forecast the Target Rate?," Staff Working Papers 17-60, Bank of Canada.
    4. Clements, A.E. & Herrera, R. & Hurn, A.S., 2015. "Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 383-393.
    5. Kevin D. Hoover & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Department of Economics 00-05, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    6. William H.Greene & Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & Christopher Spencer, 2013. "The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model with an application to monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 2013_10, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2013.
    7. Clive G. Bowsher, 2005. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2005-W26, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    8. Andrei Sirchenko, 2019. "A regime-switching model for the federal funds rate target," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 19-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.
    9. Dunbar, Kwamie & Amin, Abu S., 2012. "Credit risk dynamics in response to changes in the federal funds target: The implication for firm short-term debt," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 141-152.
    10. Michael C. Davis, 2007. "The dynamics of daily retail gasoline prices," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 713-722.
    11. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2017. "The Determinants of the Benchmark Interest Rates in China: A Discrete Choice Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2017-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    12. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Yin Liao, 2012. "Does Modeling Jumps Help? A Comparison of Realized Volatility Models for Risk Prediction," CAMA Working Papers 2012-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. George Monokroussos, 2011. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 519-534, March.
    15. Christopher J. Neely & Drew B. Winters, 2005. "Year-end seasonality in one-month LIBOR derivatives," Working Papers 2003-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. BOUEZMARNI, Taoufik & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V. K., 2006. "Nonparametric density estimation for positive time series," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2006085, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    17. Igor Kheifets & Carlos Velasco, 2013. "New Goodness-of-fit Diagnostics for Conditional Discrete Response Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1924, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    18. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2014. "Estimating Interest Rate Setting Behavior in Korea: An Ordered Probit Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    19. BAUWENS, Luc & HAUTSCH, Nikolaus, 2009. "Modelling financial high frequency data using point processes," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2123, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    20. Oscar Jorda & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Working Papers 192, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    21. Rebeca I. Muñoz Torres & David Shepherd, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and the Consistency of Monetary Policy Decisions in Mexico: an Empirical Analysis with Discrete Choice Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82, pages 21-46, December.
    22. Nowak, Sylwia & Anderson, Heather M., 2014. "How does public information affect the frequency of trading in airline stocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-38.
    23. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee & Santosh Mishra, 2008. "Jumps in cross-sectional rank and expected returns: a mixture model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 585-606.
    24. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach," Working Papers 313, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    25. Liao, Yin, 2013. "The benefit of modeling jumps in realized volatility for risk prediction: Evidence from Chinese mainland stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 25-48.
    26. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2012. "Infrequent Changes of the Policy Target: Robust Optimal Monetary Policy under Ambiguity," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-863, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    27. Eugene F. Fama, 2013. "Does the Fed Control Interest Rates?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 180-199.
    28. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "Stochastic Processes Subject To Time Scale Transformations: An Application To High-Frequency Fx Data," Working Papers 273, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    29. Hakan Danis, 2017. "Nonlinearity and asymmetry in the monetary policy reaction function: a partially generalized ordered probit approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(2), pages 161-178, August.
    30. Gurnain Pasricha, 2017. "Policy Rules for Capital Controls," Staff Working Papers 17-42, Bank of Canada.
    31. Sirchenko Andrei, 2012. "A model for ordinal responses with an application to policy interest rate," EERC Working Paper Series 12/13e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
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    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    3. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Consistent LM-Tests for Linearity Against Compound Smooth Transition Alternatives," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 42, Econometric Society.
    4. Munehisa Kasuya, 2005. "Regime-switching approach to monetary policy effects," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 307-326.
    5. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2005. "The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2515-2522.
    6. Giorgio Busetti & Matteo Manera, 2003. "STAR-GARCH Models for Stock Market Interactions in the Pacific Basin Region, Japan and US," Working Papers 2003.43, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Álvaro Escribano & Oscar Jordá, 2001. "Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 193-209.
    8. Kiliç, Rehim, 2009. "Further on nonlinearity, persistence, and integration properties of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-221, April.
    9. Emel Siklar & Ilyas Siklar, 2021. "Is There a Change in the Money Demand Stability in Turkey? A Nonlinear Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 7(2), pages 28-42, 06-2021.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working papers 2012-12, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    11. Sang-Kuck Chung, 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasts of nonlinear long-memory models of the real exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 355-370.
    12. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2009. "Evidence on the contrarian trading in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1420-1431, November.
    13. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2004. "Non-linear real exchange rate effects in the UK labour market," International Finance 0411007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Consistent Model Specification Tests Against Smooth Transition Alternatives," Econometrics 0402004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2005.
    15. Saumitra N. Bhaduri & Ashwin Andrew Samuel, 2009. "International Equity Market Integration," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(1), pages 45-66, April.
    16. Soubarna Pal, 2011. "Productivity Differential and Bilateral Real Exchange Rate between India and US," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 146-155.
    17. Brannolte Cord & Kim Jeong-Ryeol & Hansen Gerd, 1999. "Nonlinear Error Correction Modeling in German Interest Rates / Ein nichtlineares Fehlerkorrekturmodell für die deutsche Zinsstruktur," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 219(3-4), pages 271-283, June.
    18. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
    19. E Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "Forecasting the Real Exchange Rate using a Long Span of Data. A Rematch: Linear vs Nonlinear," Working Papers 601190, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    20. Dufrénot, Gilles & Lardic, Sandrine & Mathieu, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2008. "Explaining the European exchange rates deviations: Long memory or non-linear adjustment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 207-215, July.
    21. Álvaro Escribano, 1999. "Predicción y análisis de funciones de exportación e importación en España," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(1), pages 55-94, January.
    22. Jawadi Fredj & Koubaa Yousra, 2004. "Threshold Cointegration between Stock Returns : An application of STECM Models," Econometrics 0412001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Chapda Nana, Guy & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Larue, Bruno, 2010. "Regional Integration and Dynamic Adjustments: Evidence from a Gross National Product Function for Canada and the United States," MPRA Paper 23389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Samira Haddou, 2011. "Is Tunisian Real Effective Exchange Rate Mean Reverting? Evidence from Nonlinear Models," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 164-178, September.
    25. Derek Stimel, 2009. "An examination of U.S. Phillips curve nonlinearity and its relationship to the business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 736-748.
    26. Alina M. Spiru, 2008. "Inflation Convergence In Central And Eastern European Economies," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 3(4), pages 14-34, Winter.
    27. Gilles DUFRENOT & Laurent MATHIEU & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchanges rates: some evidence from nonlinear cointegration," International Finance 0309003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. López Villavicencio, Antonia, 2008. "Nonlinearities or outliers in real exchange rates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 714-730, July.
    29. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 565953, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    30. Norman, Stephen, 2010. "How well does nonlinear mean reversion solve the PPP puzzle?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 919-937, September.
    31. Mr. Gene L. Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2003. "Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 2003/159, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "LM-Tests for Linearity Against Smooth Transition Alternatives: A Bootstrap Simulation Study," Econometrics 0401004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jul 2004.

  50. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "Time-Scale Transformations of Discrete-Time Processes," Working Papers 65, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrea, SILVESTRINI, 2005. "Temporal aggregaton of univariate linear time series models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005044, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    2. Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Temporal Aggregation Of Univariate And Multivariate Time Series Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 458-497, July.
    3. Robert Kunst & Philip Franses, 2015. "Asymmetric time aggregation and its potential benefits for forecasting annual data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 363-387, August.
    4. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2006. "The cyclicality of job loss and hiring," Working Papers 06-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  51. Kevin Salyer & Oscar Jorda, 2003. "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 274, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
    3. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    4. Dudley Cooke, 2015. "Online Appendix to "Optimal Monetary Policy with Endogenous Export Participation"," Online Appendices 12-204, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    5. De Paoli, Bianca & Scott, Alasdair & Weeken, Olaf, 2010. "Asset pricing implications of a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2056-2073, October.
    6. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    7. Peter Tillmann, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_004, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    8. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries," Working papers 2006-28, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    9. Ono, Sadayuki, 2019. "Term structure dynamics in a monetary economy with learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 730-745.
    10. Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2005. "Are bond markets really overpriced: The case of the US," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 11, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
    11. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-328, November.
    12. Christian Grisse, 2020. "Lower bound uncertainty and long-term interest rates," Working Papers 2020-14, Swiss National Bank.
    13. Oscar Jorda, 2004. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Macroeconomics 0403016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Yang Hu & Yanran Hong & Kai Feng & Jikai Wang, 2023. "Evaluating the Importance of Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Long- and Short-Term Effects and Responses," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(2), pages 264-286, April.
    15. Scharler, Johann, 2008. "Bank lending and the stock market's response to monetary policy shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 425-435.
    16. Alain N. Kabundi & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Jiaxiong Yao, 2022. "How Persistent are Climate-Related Price Shocks? Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2022/207, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Abayomi T. Onanuga & Sheriffdeen A. Tella & Adenike M. Osoba, 2016. "Uncertainty of Output Gap and Monetary Policy-Making in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(5), pages 227-237, OCTOBER.
    18. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Dennis Nsafoah & Apostolos Serletis, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Spreads," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 707-727, July.
    20. Uluc Aysun, 2010. "Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Markets: A Non‐Crisis Setting," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 223-256, August.
    21. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in the European Union and Implications for the objectives of Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series 2008_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2008.
    22. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April.

  52. Oscar Jorda & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Working Papers 192, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Kevin D. Hoover & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Department of Economics 00-05, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    2. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370.
    3. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach," Working Papers 313, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    4. Selva Demiralp, 2001. "Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank.
    6. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-328, November.
    7. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

  53. Oscar Jorda & Holly Liu & Jeffrey Williams & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "The Announcement Effect: Evidence from Open Market Desk Data," Working Papers 282, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Transparency, disclosure and the federal reserve," Working Paper Series 457, European Central Bank.
    2. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2010. "Implementation of Monetary Policy: How Do Central Banks Set Interest Rates?," NBER Working Papers 16165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370.
    4. Sahminan Sahminan, 2008. "Effectiveness of monetary policy communication in Indonesia and Thailand," BIS Working Papers 262, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2006. "Anticipation of Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations," MPRA Paper 704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Andreas Schabert, "undated". "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks with Changes in Open Market Operations," Working Papers 2003_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2003.
    7. Selva Demiralp, 2001. "Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Open market operations and the federal funds rate," Working Papers 2005-063, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
    10. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 200, European Central Bank.
    11. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2008. "Taking two steps at a time: On the optimal pattern of policy interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 550-570, February.
    12. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "The execution of monetary policy: a tale of two central banks," Staff Reports 165, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    14. Baeriswyl, Romain & Cornand, Camille, 2007. "Can Opacity of a Credible Central Bank Explain Excessive Inflation?," Discussion Papers in Economics 1376, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    15. Adigozalov, Shaig & Huseynov, Salman, 2015. "İnflyasiya hədəflənməsinin əməliyyat çərçivəsi: ölkə təcrübələri AMB üçün nə vəd edir? [Operational framework of Inflation Targeting: what promises do country experiences make to the CBAR?]," MPRA Paper 76349, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2009. "Announcements and the effectiveness of monetary policy: A view from the US prime rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2253-2266, December.
    17. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank.
    18. Andrea Monticini & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def010, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    19. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    20. Nautz, Dieter & Schmidt, Sandra, 2009. "Monetary policy implementation and the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1274-1284, July.
    21. Paolo Angelini, 2008. "Liquidity And Announcement Effects In The Euro Area," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 67(1), pages 1-20, March.
    22. Matthew Rafferty & Marc Tomljanovich, 2002. "Central bank transparency and market efficiency: An econometric analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 150-161, June.
    23. Anna Bykhovskaya & James A. Duffy, 2022. "The Local to Unity Dynamic Tobit Model," Papers 2210.02599, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    24. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    25. Byungkwon Lim & Hyeon Sook Kim & Jaehwan Park, 2021. "Implicit Interpretation of Indonesian Export Bans on LME Nickel Prices: Evidence from the Announcement Effect," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-7, May.
    26. Demiralp, Selva & Farley, Dennis, 2005. "Declining required reserves, funds rate volatility, and open market operations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1131-1152, May.
    27. Hanes, Christopher, 2019. "Explaining the appearance of open-mouth operations in the 1990s U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 682-701.
    28. Aleksandar Murdzhev & Marc Tomljanovich, 2006. "What Color is Alan Greenspan's Tie? How Central Bank Policy Announcements Have Changed Financial Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-593, Fall.
    29. Karel Brůna, 2010. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Liquidity Management of the Czech Banking System," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(3), pages 15-41.

  54. Oscar Jorda & Kevin Hoover, 2000. "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Working Papers 203, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Eduard Hochreiter & Anton Korinek & Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "The potential consequences of alternative exchange rate regimes: A study of three candidate regions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 327-349.
    2. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Andrew Filardo & Paul Hubert & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle," Working Papers hal-03403260, HAL.
    4. Hanson, Michael S., 2006. "Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 407-427.
    5. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    6. Kevin Salyer & Oscar Jorda, 2003. "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 274, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    7. Kirstin Hubrich & Peter Vlaar, 2004. "Monetary transmission in Germany: Lessons for the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 383-414, May.
    8. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2011. "The Effects of Monetary Policy "News" and "Surprises"," Working Papers 101109, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    9. Ajisafe, Rufus A. & Adesina, Kehinde E. & Okunade, Solomon O., 2022. "Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Monetary Policy on Output in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(2), March.
    10. Piyachart Phiromswad, 2014. "Measuring monetary policy with empirically grounded identifying restrictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 681-699, March.
    11. Bachmeier, Lance, 2008. "Monetary policy and the transmission of oil shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1738-1755, December.
    12. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission through the consumption-wealth channel," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 117-133.
    13. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Patricia C. Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism: some answers and further questions," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 15-26.
    14. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy “News” and “Surprises”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1667-1692, December.

  55. Oscar Jorda & Paul Bergin, 2000. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," Working Papers 72, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007. "Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1943, CESifo.
    2. James McNeil, 2024. "Modeling interest rate setting at the European Central Bank with bargaining models and counterfactuals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 1037-1053, March.
    3. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    4. Grammig, Joachim & Kehrle, Kerstin, 2008. "A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2370-2396, July.
    5. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2017. "Federal reserve's policy, global equity markets, and the local monetary policy stance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 317-327.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "(How) Do Stock Market Returns React to Monetary Policy? - An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 253/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    7. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Chiara Scotti, 2006. "A bivariate model of Fed and ECB main policy rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 875, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Anthony Landry, 2005. "The Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch Model in a New Bottle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 455, Society for Computational Economics.

  56. Oscar Jorda, 1998. "Decision Rules for Selecting between Exponential and Logistic STAR," Working Papers 207, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "Exchange Rate Flexibility across Financial Crises," CEPN Working Papers hal-00845254, HAL.
    2. Brannolte Cord & Kim Jeong-Ryeol & Hansen Gerd, 1999. "Nonlinear Error Correction Modeling in German Interest Rates / Ein nichtlineares Fehlerkorrekturmodell für die deutsche Zinsstruktur," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 219(3-4), pages 271-283, June.

  57. Escribano, Álvaro & Jordá, Óscar, 1997. "Testing nonlinearity: decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential star models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6216, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

    Cited by:

    1. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2008. "An overview on various ways of bootstrap methods," MPRA Paper 7163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Claude Diebolt & Mohamed Chikhi, 2021. "Testing The Weak Form Efficiency Of The French Etf Market With Lstar-Anlstgarch Approach Using A Semiparametric Estimation," Working Papers 09-21, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    3. Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013. "Volatility and persistence of simulated DSGE real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 38-41.
    4. Javier Ordóñez & Hector Sala & José I. Silva, 2010. "Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations," Working Papers wpdea1005, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    5. Liu, Bing & Yin, Weijun & Chen, Gang & Yao, Jing, 2023. "The threshold effect of climate risk and the non-linear role of climate policy uncertainty on insurance demand: Evidence from OECD countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    6. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2004. "Non-linear real exchange rate effects in the UK labour market," International Finance 0411007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Escribano, Álvaro & Jordá, Óscar, 1997. "Improved testing and specification of smooth transition regression models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6218, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Jean-François Verne, 2021. "Smooth Threshold Autoregressive models and Markov process: An application to the Lebanese GDP growth rate," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 13(3), pages 71-88, September.
    9. Phiri, Andrew, 2015. "Examining asymmetric effects in the South African Philips curve: Evidence from logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models," MPRA Paper 64487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2021. "Testing for UIP: Nonlinearities, Monetary Announcements and Interest Rate Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9027, CESifo.
    11. Ahmad, Yamin & Craighead, William D., 2011. "Temporal aggregation and purchasing power parity persistence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 817-830, September.
    12. Escribano Alvaro & Torrado María, 2018. "Nonlinear and asymmetric pricing behaviour in the Spanish gasoline market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-19, December.
    13. Yamin Ahmad & Stuart Glosser, 2007. "Searching for Nonlinearities in Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 09-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2009.
    14. Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Does military spending nonlinearly affect economic growth in South Africa?," MPRA Paper 69730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Lokendra Kumawat & N. R. Bhanumurthy, 2018. "Regime-shifts in India’s monetary policy response function," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 167-182, December.
    16. Zhenxi Chen & Stefan Reitz, 2020. "Dynamics of the European sovereign bonds and the identification of crisis periods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2761-2781, June.
    17. Derek Stimel, 2010. "Choice of Aggregate Demand Proxy and its Affect on Phillips Curve Nonlinearity: U.S. Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 543-557.
    18. Escribano, Álvaro & Wang, Dandan, 2021. "Mixed random forest, cointegration, and forecasting gasoline prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1442-1462.
    19. Jawadi, Fredj & Bourghelle, David & Rozin, Philippe & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Sentiment and energy price volatility: A nonlinear high frequency analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Nonlinearities in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Role of Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9544, CESifo.
    21. Sahin, Afsin, 2013. "Estimating Money Demand Function by a Smooth Transition Regression Model: An Evidence for Turkey," MPRA Paper 46851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2007. "Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries," Working Papers 2007-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    23. Franchi, Massimo & Ordóñez, Javier, 2011. "Multiple equilibria in Spanish unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-80, February.
    24. Liew Khim Sen & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2003. "Forecasting Performance of Logistic STAR Exchange Rate Model: The Original and Reparameterised Versions," GE, Growth, Math methods 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Testing for UIP-Type Relationships: Nonlinearities, Monetary Announcements and Interest Rate Expectations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 705-749, September.
    26. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2016. "The nonlinear nature of country risk and its implications for DSGE models," NBP Working Papers 250, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    27. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Jv, Yue-Qi, 2022. "A smooth difference-in-differences model for assessing gradual policy effects: Revisiting the impact of banking deregulation on income distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    28. Konstantin A., Kholodilin, 2003. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turns of the Japanese Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    29. Jacek Kotłowski & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2016. "The nonlinear nature of country risk," EcoMod2016 9416, EcoMod.
    30. Ordonez, Javier, 2003. "Stability and non-linear dynamics in the broad demand for money in Spain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 139-146, January.
    31. Escribano, A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Nonlinearities and outliers: robust specification of STAR models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9832, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    32. Hagemejer, Jan & Hałka, Aleksandra & Kotłowski, Jacek, 2022. "Global value chains and exchange rate pass-through—The role of non-linearities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 461-478.

Articles

  1. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2022. "Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4561-4586.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Òscar Jordà & Celeste Liu & Fernanda Nechio & Fabián Rivera-Reyes, 2022. "Wage Growth When Inflation Is High," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(25), pages 1-6, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Bank of Korea, 2023. "Labour markets and inflation," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation and labour markets, volume 127, pages 195-202, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Adiah Bailey & Victor Hernandez Martinez, 2023. "The Effect of Higher Financing Costs on Job Openings and Online Job Postings," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(09), pages 1-7, May.
    3. Gödl, Maximilian & Gödl-Hanisch, Isabel, 2023. "Wage Setting in Times of High and Low Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277641, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

  4. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Òscar Jordà & Celeste Liu & Fernanda Nechio & Fabián Rivera-Reyes, 2022. "Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(07), pages 1-06, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Eterovic, Nicolás & Hernández-Román, Luis G., 2024. "Disentangling demand and supply inflation shocks from electronic payments data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Serdar Kabaca & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2023. "Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Working Papers 23-19, Bank of Canada.
    3. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Reuven Glick & Sylvain Leduc & Mollie Pepper, 2022. "Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(21), pages 1-6, August.
    5. Christopher David Cotton, 2023. "Excess stimulus and monetary policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(3), pages 1528-1538.

  6. Òscar Jordà & Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2021. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 260-286.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2020. "The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 22-40.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2019. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 109-150, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2019. "Riders on the Storm," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Òscar Jordà & Chitra Marti & Fernanda Nechio & Eric Tallman, 2019. "Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Christian Pfister, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policies: A Stock-Taking Exercise," Working Papers hal-04159708, HAL.
    3. Pattanaik, Sitikantha & Muduli, Silu & Ray, Soumyajit, 2020. "Inflation expectations of households: do they influence wage-price dynamics in India?," MPRA Paper 103685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Moretti, Laura & Onorante, Luca & Zakipour Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Phillips curves in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2295, European Central Bank.
    5. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. A. Moutaabbid, 2024. "Les determinants de la dynamique des salaires en France : approches macro et sectorielles par la courbe de Phillips," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2024-20, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    7. Byron Botha & Lauren Kuhn & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa," Working Papers 10211, South African Reserve Bank.

  11. Òscar Jordà & Chitra Marti & Fernanda Nechio & Eric Tallman, 2019. "Why Is Inflation Low Globally?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Lahlou, Kamal & Bennouna , Hicham, 2022. "Contributions des facteurs domestiques et externes à la dynamique de l’inflation au Maroc," Document de travail 2022-1, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    2. Giacomo Mangiante, 2022. "Demographic Trends and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    3. Mary C. Daly, 2023. "Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(08), pages 1-8, March.
    4. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe, 2022. "Debt policies in the aftermath of COVID-19 — The SGP’s debt benchmark revisited," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe, 2020. "Debt rule design in theory and practice: the SGP’s debt benchmark revisited," Working Paper Series 2379, European Central Bank.

  12. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2018. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 371-387, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 219-255, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Caspi, Itamar & Graham, Meital, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in stock markets with irregular dividend distribution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 89-94.

  17. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Sovereigns Versus Banks: Credit, Crises, And Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-79, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Interest rates and house prices: pill or poison?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Mary C. Daly, 2020. "2020 Lessons, 2021 Priorities," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2020(37), pages 01-08, December.

  21. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Early Elias & Helen Irvin & Òscar Jordà, 2014. "Monetary policy when the spyglass is smudged," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Gomes, Sandra & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2023. "A single monetary policy for heterogeneous labour markets: the case of the euro area," Working Paper Series 2769, European Central Bank.
    2. Mikhail V. Oet & Kalle Lyytinen, 2017. "Does Financial Stability Matter to the Fed in Setting US Monetary Policy?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 389-432.

  23. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Elva Bova & Christina Kolerus & Sampawende Tapsoba, 2015. "A fiscal job? An analysis of fiscal policy and the labor market," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law," Working Papers 2015-29, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Claudia Foroni & Francesco Furlanetto, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun’s Law," Working Paper 2022/4, Norges Bank.
    4. Porras, María Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2017. "Self-employment and Okun’s Law relationship: the Spanish case," MPRA Paper 83292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Durech, Richard & Minea, Alexandru & Mustea, Lavinia & Slusna, Lubica, 2014. "Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 57-65.
    6. Natsuki Arai, 2016. "Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 1019-1049, August.
    7. Bande, Roberto & Martín-Román, Ángel, 2018. "Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015)," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 41, pages 137-165.
    8. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2015. "Producto, desempleo y la Ley de Okun en la República Dominicana [Output, unemployment and Okun’s law in the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 63656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2019. "Self-employment and the Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 253-265.
    10. John G. Fernald, 2014. "Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2014-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Early Elias & Helen Irvin & Òscar Jordà, 2014. "Monetary policy when the spyglass is smudged," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. J. Wang & John Fernald, 2016. "Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?," 2016 Meeting Papers 1220, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Milen V. Velev, 2014. "A Research on the Relationship between the Real Aggregate Output and the Unemployment Rate in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 58-91.

  24. Jordà, Òscar, 2014. "Assessing the historical role of credit: Business cycles, financial crises and the legacy of Charles S. Peirce," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 729-740.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Daly, Mary C. & Fernald, John G. & Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2014. "Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 228, pages 58-64, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Fushing, Hsieh & Jordà, Òscar & Beisner, Brianne & McCowan, Brenda, 2014. "Computing systemic risk using multiple behavioral and keystone networks: The emergence of a crisis in primate societies and banks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 797-806.

    Cited by:

    1. Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.
    2. D’Ignazio, Alessio & Giovannetti, Emanuele, 2015. "Predicting internet commercial connectivity wars: The impact of trust and operators’ asymmetry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1127-1137.

  27. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Private credit and public debt in financial crises," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Nicoletta Batini & Mr. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2016. "Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 2016/104, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Larissa Batrancea, 2020. "The Influence of Public Debt on Performance: Lesson from Romanian Counties," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 809-814, December.
    3. Furceri, Davide & Kilic Celik, Sinem & Jalles, João Tovar & Koloskova, Ksenia, 2021. "Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 130-138.
    4. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Mattia Osvaldo Picarelli & Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe, 2019. "Does Public Debt Produce a Crowding Out Effect for Public Investment in the EU?," Working Papers 36, European Stability Mechanism.
    6. Mattia Guerini & Alessio Moneta & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2018. "The janus-faced nature of debt: results from a data-driven cointegrated svar approach," Post-Print hal-03471585, HAL.
    7. Yuan, Gecheng & Fang, Jie & Sun, Yongping, 2024. "The impact of Fintech on the nexus between household debt and financial crises: A global perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Okombi, Idrys Fransmel & Mampieme, Vaccili Belneche, 2024. "Cyclicality of public debt in developing countries: Does dependence on natural resources matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    9. Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Sheng & Wu, Zhouheng, 2022. "What drives credit expansion worldwide?——An empirical investigation with long-term cross-country panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 225-242.

  28. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2013. "Labor markets in the global financial crisis," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Michal Moszynski, 2016. "Institutional conditioning of the German labour market in the face of the global economic crisis 2008–2009," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 15(3), pages 371-383, September.
    2. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Working Paper Series 2014-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  29. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2013. "Crises before and after the creation of the Fed," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may6.

    Cited by:

    1. Bilal Bagis, 2017. "Central Banking in the New Era," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(4), pages 197-225.

  31. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2013. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Jordà, Òscar & Knüppel, Malte & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 456-468.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Mary C. Daly & Early Elias & Bart Hobijn & Òscar Jordà, 2012. "Will the jobless rate drop take a break?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec17.

    Cited by:

    1. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Hobijn, Bart & She, Powen & Visschers, Ludo, 2015. "The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the UK," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-52, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Leila Bengali & Mary C. Daly & Robert G. Valletta, 2013. "Will labor force participation bounce back?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may13.
    3. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Robert Hall, 2017. "Changes in Labor Market Participation across the Household Income Distribution," 2017 Meeting Papers 1640, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  34. Yanping Chong & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates And Their Long‐Run Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 609-634, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 357-388.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Òscar Jordà & Sharon Kozicki, 2011. "Estimation And Inference By The Method Of Projection Minimum Distance: An Application To The New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 461-487, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrei S. Gonçalves, 2021. "Reinvestment Risk and the Equity Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2153-2197, October.
    2. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2020. "Estimating nonlinear dynamic equilibrium models by matching impulse responses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
    4. Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2011. "An efficient minimum distance estimator for DSGE models," Bank of England working papers 439, Bank of England.
    5. Yanping Chong & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates And Their Long‐Run Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 609-634, May.
    6. Amaze Lusompa, 2021. "Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency," Research Working Paper RWP 21-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    8. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    10. Amaze Lusompa, 2023. "Local projections, autocorrelation, and efficiency," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1199-1220, November.
    11. Giraitis, Liudas & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2014. "Estimating time-varying DSGE models using minimum distance methods," Bank of England working papers 507, Bank of England.
    12. Ryan R. Brady, 2021. "Direct Forecasting for Applied Regional Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 67, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    13. Ke-Li Xu, 2023. "Local Projection Based Inference under General Conditions," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-001 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.

  38. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    2. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    3. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2017. "Does Business Confidence Matter for Investment?," Carleton Economic Papers 17-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Mar 2019.
    4. Ceyhun Elgin & M. ayhan Köse & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Understanding Informality Abstract:," Working Papers 2021/03, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    5. Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," BIS Working Papers 421, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Jeffrey Clemens & Michael R. Strain, 2020. "Public Policy and Participation in Political Interest Groups: An Analysis of Minimum Wages, Labor Unions, and Effective Advocacy," NBER Working Papers 27902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    9. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Gaston Giordana & Michael H. Ziegelmeyer, 2022. "Using household-level data to guide borrower-based macro-prudential policy," BCL working papers 161, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    11. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
    12. Christopher McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," CAMA Working Papers 2016-40, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," NBER Working Papers 16567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Segnon, Mawuli, 2016. "The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-20.
    15. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    16. Huang, Yu-Fan & Startz, Richard, 2020. "Improved recession dating using stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 507-514.
    17. Thomas M. Mertens, 2022. "Recession Prediction on the Clock," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(36), pages 1-06, December.
    18. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia, 2018. "The financial cycle and recession risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    19. Ceyhun Elgin & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2115, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    20. Ghulame Rubbaniy & Ali Awais Khalid & Shoaib Ali & Efstathios Polyzos, 2023. "Cyclicality of liquidity creation: Nonlinear evidence from US bank holding companies," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1165-1185, December.
    21. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    22. Jorge E. Galán, 2021. "CREWS: a CAMELS-based early warning system of systemic risk in the banking sector," Occasional Papers 2132, Banco de España.
    23. Sutirtha Bagchi, 2017. "A Tale of Two Cities: An Examination of Medallion Prices in New York and Chicago," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 33, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    24. Buckmann, Marcus & Gallego Marquez, Paula & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Kapadia, Sujit & Rismanchi, Katie, 2023. "The more the merrier? Evidence on the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    25. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    26. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.
    27. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
    28. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Does the Cost of Private Debt Respond to Monetary Policy? Heteroskedasticity-Based Identification in a Model with Regimes," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19118, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    29. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    30. Turgut Kisinbay & Chikako Baba, 2011. "Predicting Recessions: A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations," IMF Working Papers 2011/235, International Monetary Fund.
    31. David W. Findlay, 2024. "To Dip or Not to Dip? A Comment on Kyer and Maggs (2019)," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(1), pages 47-63, February.
    32. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    33. Scott A. Brave & Jose A. Lopez, 2019. "Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 1-59, March.
    34. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2021. "Which Credit Gap Is Better at Predicting Financial Crises? A Comparison of Univariate Filters," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-31, October.
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    172. Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2022. "Calibrating the countercyclical capital buffer for Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 679, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

  39. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2015. "Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP," Working Papers No 10/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

  41. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Path forecast evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 635-662.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  42. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "Future recession risks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug9.

    Cited by:

    1. Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.
    2. David Lang & Kevin J. Lansing, 2010. "Forecasting growth over the next year with a business cycle index," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep27.

  43. Òscar Jordà, 2009. "Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 629-647, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Bruder & Michael Wolf, 2018. "Balanced Bootstrap Joint Confidence Bands for Structural Impulse Response Functions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 641-664, September.
    2. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 131, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    3. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Joint confidence sets for structural impulse responses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 421-432.
    5. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2013. "Comparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201325, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Grabowski, Daniel & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna, 2018. "Skewness-Adjusted Bootstrap Confidence Intervals and Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181590, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Inoue, Atsushi & Jordà , Òscar & Kuersteiner, Guido, 2023. "Significance Bands for Local Projections," CEPR Discussion Papers 18271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models," DSSR Discussion Papers 11, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    9. Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2011. "An efficient minimum distance estimator for DSGE models," Bank of England working papers 439, Bank of England.
    10. Inoue, Atsushi & Jordà , Òscar & Kuersteiner, Guido, 2024. "Inference for Local Projections," CEPR Discussion Papers 19379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Chiappini, Raphaël & Groslambert, Bertrand & Bruno, Olivier, 2024. "A method to measure bank output while excluding credit risk and retaining liquidity effects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 167-179.
    12. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2015. "Making the most of high inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3723-3739, July.
    13. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2018. "Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions of VAR Models: A Review," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1762, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Ryan Brady, 2013. "The Spatial Diffusion of Regional Housing Prices across U.S. States," Departmental Working Papers 45, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    15. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Staszewska-Bystrova Anna, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
    17. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lee, Chingnun & Wang, Tzu-Wei, 2011. "A re-examination on dissecting the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 572-586, April.
    18. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2014. "Confidence Bands for Impulse Responses: Bonferroni versus Wald," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1354, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Ryan R. Brady & Derek Stimel & Steven Sumner, 2012. "A Time Series Test of the Direct Wealth Effect," Departmental Working Papers 40, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    21. Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2023. "Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    22. Makram El-Shagi & Yishuo Ma, 2021. "Nine blind men and the PBoC," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2021/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    23. Michael Donadelli & Marcus Jüppner & Antonio Paradiso & Christian Schlag, 2019. "Temperature Volatility Risk," Working Papers 2019:05, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

  44. Galina Hale & Òscar Jordà, 2007. "Do monetary aggregates help forecast inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr13.

    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money matter for U.S. inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Discussion Papers 2008/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Working Papers 112, National Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 2007:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    5. Narayan, Seema & Cirikisuva, Salote & Naivutu, Revoni, 2023. "A hybrid NKPC inflation model for the small Island state of Fiji," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 873-886.
    6. Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Filip Rozsypal, 2010. "Does Money Help Predict Inflation? An Empirical Assessment for Central Europe," Working Papers 2010/05, Czech National Bank.
    7. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    8. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    9. Mr. Arto Kovanen, 2011. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in Ghana?," IMF Working Papers 2011/274, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Shahid IQBAL & Maqbool H. SIAL, 2016. "Projections of Inflation Dynamics for Pakistan: GMDH Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 536-559, September.
    11. Mr. Emil Stavrev & Mr. Helge Berger, 2008. "The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2008/166, International Monetary Fund.

  45. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Can monetary policy influence long-term interest rates?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may20.

    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Zhengyang, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," EconStor Preprints 204579, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

  46. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.

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    1. Grimm, Maximilian & Jordà , Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "Loose monetary policy and financial instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 17896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Oliver Hülsewig & Horst Rottmann, 2022. "Unemployment in the Euro Area and Unconventional Monetary Policy Surprises," CESifo Working Paper Series 10091, CESifo.
    3. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Leveraged Bubbles," CESifo Working Paper Series 5489, CESifo.
    4. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2018. "Social media, sentiment and public opinions: Evidence from #Brexit and #USElection," Working Papers 2018-01, Swansea University, School of Management.
    5. Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha & Dowling, Michael, 2020. "Effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks on the interdependence between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 150-155.
    6. Richhild Moessner, 2024. "Effects of Green Technology Support Policies on Carbon Dioxide Emissions," CESifo Working Paper Series 11047, CESifo.
    7. Mario Alloza, 2017. "Is fiscal policy more effective in uncertain times or during recessions?," Working Papers 1730, Banco de España.
    8. Berrak Bahadir & Kuhelika De & William D. Lastrapes, 2020. "Household Debt, Consumption and Inequality," Working Papers 2011, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    9. Copestake, Alexander & Furceri, Davide & Gonzalez-Dominguez, Pablo, 2023. "Crypto market responses to digital asset policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    10. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2018. "A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 24529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Andrea Cipollini & Fabio Parla, 2018. "Housing Market Shocks in Italy: a GVAR approach," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0069, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    12. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Ragnar Torvik, 2018. "Dutch Disease Dynamics Reconsidered," Working Papers No 4/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    13. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "The Phillips multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 689-705.
    14. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2021. "The Voice of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 21-02, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    15. Falk Bräuning & José Fillat & Gustavo Joaquim, 2022. "Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy," Current Policy Perspectives 94265, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Fergus Cumming & Paul Hubert, 2019. "The role of households' borrowing constraints in the transmission of monetary policy," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403257, HAL.
    17. Jörg Breitung & Ralf Brüggemann, 2019. "Projection estimators for structural impulse responses," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2019-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
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    23. Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani & John Simon & Susan Wachter, 2015. "Global Food Prices and Domestic Inflation: Some Cross-Country Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2015/133, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Joshua Aizenman & Sy-Hoa Ho & Luu Duc Toan Huynh & Jamel Saadaoui & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2023. "Real exchange rate and international reserves in the era of financial integration," Working Papers of BETA 2023-07, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    25. Mario Gonzalez & Raul Cruz Tadle, 2022. "Monetary policy press releases: an international comparison," BIS Working Papers 1023, Bank for International Settlements.
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    27. Eichengreen, Barry & Naef, Alain, 2022. "Imported or home grown? The 1992–3 EMS crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
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    29. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2022. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2022, volume 37, pages 87-155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
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    33. Bracco,Jessica Roxana & Galeano,Luciana Maria & Juarros,Pedro Francisco & Riera-Crichton,Daniel & Vuletin,Guillermo Javier, 2021. "Social Transfer Multipliers in Developed and Emerging Countries : The Role of Hand-to-Mouth Consumers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9627, The World Bank.
    34. Senni, Chiara Colesanti & von Jagow, Adrian, 2023. "Water risks for hydroelectricity generation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119255, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    35. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2018. "Does a big bazooka matter? Central bank balance-sheet policies and exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2197, European Central Bank.
    36. Nadav Ben Zeev & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2023. "Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock?," NBER Working Papers 31015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 30140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Simon Lloyd & Ed Manuel & Konstantin Panchev, 2024. "Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks: The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 335-392, March.
    39. Enisse Kharroubi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Monetary independence in a financially integrated world: what do measures of interest rate co-movement tell us?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 193-205, Bank for International Settlements.
    40. Leonardo Melosi & Hiroshi Morita & Anna Rogantini Picco & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," Discussion Papers 2436, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    41. Erwan Gautier & Conflitti Cristina & Faber Riemer P. & Fabo Brian & Fadejeva Ludmila & Jouvanceau Valentin & Menz Jan-Oliver & Messner Teresa & Petroulas Pavlos & Roldan-Blanco Pau & Rumler Fabio & Sa, 2022. "New Facts on Consumer Price Rigidity in the Euro Area," Working papers 878, Banque de France.
    42. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2015. "Liquidity and Foreign Asset Management Challenges for Latin American Countries," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang (ed.),Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy, edition 1, volume 22, chapter 4, pages 091-134, Central Bank of Chile.
    43. Oriol Gonzalez-Casasus & Frank Schorfheide, 2025. "Misspecification-Robust Shrinkage and Selection for VAR Forecasts and IRFs," PIER Working Paper Archive 25-003, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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    45. Michael Kleemann & Gernot Mueller & Zeno Enders, 2015. "Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations," 2015 Meeting Papers 406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    47. Antoine Goujard, 2017. "Cross‐Country Spillovers from Fiscal Consolidations," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 219-267, June.
    48. Olegs Matvejevs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2022. "Public investment crowds in private investment - with ifs and buts," Working Papers 2022/04, Latvijas Banka.
    49. Aysun, Uluc, 2008. "Automatic stabilizer feature of fixed exchange rate regimes," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 302-328, December.
    50. Shiyi Wang, 2019. "Capital Flow Volatility: The Effects of Financial Development and Global Financial Conditions," 2019 Papers pwa945, Job Market Papers.
    51. Georgescu, Oana-Maria & Martín, Diego Vila, 2021. "Do macroprudential measures increase inequality? Evidence from the euro area household survey," Working Paper Series 2567, European Central Bank.
    52. William D. Larson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2024. "House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks," Working Papers 2024-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    53. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    54. Chudik, Alexander & Georgiadis, Georgios, 2019. "Estimation of impulse response functions when shocks are observed at a higher frequency than outcome variables," Working Paper Series 2307, European Central Bank.
    55. Osnat Zohar, 2021. "Cyclicality of Uncertainty and Disagreement," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2021.09, Bank of Israel.
    56. Majid M. Al-Sadoon, 2015. "Testing Subspace Granger Causality," Working Papers 850, Barcelona School of Economics.
    57. Gaston Navarro & Axelle Ferriere, 2016. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Government Spending: It's All About Taxes," 2016 Meeting Papers 1286, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    58. Ravn, Morten & Mertens, Karel & Fieldhouse, Andrew, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    59. Coen N. Teulings & Nick Zubanov, 2010. "Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-040/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 07 Jul 2011.
    60. Karl-Friedrich Israel & Tim Florian Sepp & Nils Sonnenberg, 2023. "The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Stock Markets and Household Incomes in Japan," Post-Print halshs-04024219, HAL.
    61. Sangyup Choi & Kimoon Jeong & Jiseob Kim, 2024. "Asymmetric Mortgage Channel of Monetary Policy: Refinancing as a Call Option," Working papers 2024rwp-228, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    62. David, Antonio C. & Guajardo, Jaime & Yepez, Juan F., 2022. "The rewards of fiscal consolidations: Sovereign spreads and confidence effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    63. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 131, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    64. Makram El-Shagi, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in the Eurozone," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    65. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    66. Régis Barnichon & Davide Debortoli & Christian Matthes, 2020. "Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign," Working Paper Series 2021-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    68. Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui & Yanrui Wu, 2023. "Political Relations and Trade: New Evidence from Australia, China and the United States," Working Papers of BETA 2023-24, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    69. Adam Hale Shapiro, "undated". "Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-03, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
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    71. Garofalo, Marco & Rosso, Giovanni & Vicquéry, Roger, 2024. "Dominant currency pricing transition," Bank of England working papers 1074, Bank of England.
    72. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar & Li, Xiang, 2024. "Global political ties and the global financial cycle," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2024, Bank of Finland.
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    79. Kundu, Shohini, 2023. "The externalities of fire sales: evidence from collateralized loan obligations," ESRB Working Paper Series 141, European Systemic Risk Board.
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  48. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2004. "Time‐scale transformations of discrete time processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 873-894, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  49. Bergin, Paul R. & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "Measuring monetary policy interdependence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 761-783, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  50. Oscar Jorda & Kevin Salyer, 2003. "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 941-962, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  51. Jordà, Òscar & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2003. "Modeling High-Frequency Foreign Exchange Data Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 618-635, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Herwartz, 2006. "Econometric analysis of high frequency data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 89-104, March.

  52. Selva Demiralp & Òscar Jordà, 2002. "The announcement effect: evidence from open market desk data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 29-48.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  53. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  54. Kevin D. Hoover & Òscar Jordà, 2001. "Measuring systematic monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 113-144.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  55. Álvaro Escribano & Oscar Jordá, 2001. "Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 193-209.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  56. Jorda, Oscar, 1999. "Random-Time Aggregation in Partial Adjustment Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 382-395, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

  1. Paul R. Bergin & Òscar Jordà, 2017. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 14, pages 387-415, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, pages 213-263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2014. "Betting the House," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2014, pages 2-18, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Òscar Jordà & Moritz HP. Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: Sovereign Debt and Financial Crises, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 357-387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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