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Medium term treatment and side effects of quantitative easing: international evidence

Author

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  • Beck, Roland
  • Duca, Ioana A.
  • Stracca, Livio

Abstract

We use a cross-country sample of monthly observations for quantitative easing (QE) treatments in order to study the causal effect of such policies on a large set of economic and financial outcome variables. We address potential endogeneity by re-randomising the sample and applying the augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) estimator. Our results show that QE policies do affect the central bank balance sheet and asset prices, in particular long term yields, equity prices and exchange rates in the expected direction. Most importantly, we find that QE policies lead to a sustained rise in the CPI and in inflation expectations. However, our findings suggest that the main transmission channel does not appear to be stronger aggregate demand impacting inflation through the Phillips curve, but rather exchange rate depreciation. Finally, we do not find any evidence for side effects and increases in risk taking following QE, with real house prices and real credit not increasing or falling, and no downward effect on stock market volatility. JEL Classification: E5, F3

Suggested Citation

  • Beck, Roland & Duca, Ioana A. & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Medium term treatment and side effects of quantitative easing: international evidence," Working Paper Series 2229, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192229
    Note: 597822
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xavier Ragot & Ricardo Pinois, 2019. "Public debt and the world financial market," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 165-189.
    2. Cañon, Carlos & Gerba, Eddie & Pambira, Alberto & Stoja, Evarist, 2024. "An unconventional FX tail risk story," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125291, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
    4. Laeven, Luc & Maddaloni, Angela & Mendicino, Caterina, 2022. "Monetary policy, macroprudential policy and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2647, European Central Bank.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/27htme1l229q4oghqfilvsocrd is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2021. "Does Public Debt Ownership Structure Matter for a Borrowing Country?," Working Papers REM 2021/0190, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Andrejs Zlobins, 2020. "Country-level effects of the ECB’s expanded asset purchase programme," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 187-217.
    9. Mary Everett & Jakob de Haan & David‐Jan Jansen & Peter McQuade & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Mortgage lending, monetary policy, and prudential measures in small euro‐area economies: Evidence from Ireland and the Netherlands," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 117-143, February.
    10. Frederic Opitz, 2020. "Why narrative information matters: Evidence from the asset purchase program of the ECB," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 20/994, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Andrea De Polis & Mario Pietrunti, 2019. "Exchange rate dynamics and unconventional monetary policies: it�s all in the shadows," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1231, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Metzger, Martina & Young, Brigitte, 2020. "No gender please, we're central bankers: Distributional impacts of quantitative easing," IPE Working Papers 136/2020, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/27htme1l229q4oghqfilvsocrd is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Lucio Gobbi & Stefano Lucarelli, 2021. "ECB quantitative easing, euro depreciation and supply chains: Industry-level estimates for Germany, Italy and Greece. New prospects for a Minskyan big bank?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(296), pages 25-50.
    15. Joscha Beckmann & Klaus-Jürgen Gern & Nils Jannsen, 2022. "Should they stay or should they go? Negative interest rate policies under review," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 885-912, October.
    16. Stefano Lucarelli & Gaetano Perone, 2020. "Quando la produttivitˆ limitata dalla bilancia dei pagamenti. Una riflessione sulle relazioni fra centro e periferia nellÕunione monetaria europea a partire dallÕequazione della produttivitˆ di Sylos ," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(292), pages 325-353.
    17. Milan Šimáček, 2021. "Transmise měnové politiky a spodní efektivní hranice měnověpolitické úrokové sazby [Monetary Policy Transmission and Effective Lower Limit of Monetary Policy Interest Rates]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(2), pages 227-253.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    AIPW; augmented inverse probability weighting estimation; quantitative easing; unconvential monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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