IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v95y2019icp95-111.html

Does anyone listen when politicians talk? The effect of political commentaries on policy rate decisions and expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Demiralp, Selva
  • King, Sharmila
  • Scotti, Chiara

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of political commentaries on policy rate decisions and policy expectations in the United States and the euro area. The results suggest that political commentaries do influence policy rate expectations in both regions, even after controlling for macroeconomic releases and immediate interest rate expectations. During the pre-crisis period, the European Central Bank seems to have steered its policy in line with political commentaries that suggested further easings, consistent with market expectations. Meanwhile, market participants expected the Fed to tighten policy in response to hawkish comments in the post-2007 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Demiralp, Selva & King, Sharmila & Scotti, Chiara, 2019. "Does anyone listen when politicians talk? The effect of political commentaries on policy rate decisions and expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 95-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:95:y:2019:i:c:p:95-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.03.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560618300792
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.03.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    2. Michael Ehrmann, 2026. "Trust in Central Banks," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 492-504, February.
    3. Gardner, Ben & Scotti, Chiara & Vega, Clara, 2022. "Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 387-409.
    4. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2015, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Cem Çakmakli & Selva Demi̇ralp & Gökhan Şahi̇n Güneş, 2024. "Do Financial Markets Respond to Populist Rhetoric?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(3), pages 541-567, June.
    6. Bennett Schmanski & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2023. "Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Benjamín García & Arsenios Skaperdas, 2024. "Central Bank Independence at Low Interest Rates," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1003, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Trump, Twitter, And Treasuries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(3), pages 403-408, July.
    9. Peter Tillmann, 2019. "Trump Pressuring the Fed," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201920, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:95:y:2019:i:c:p:95-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.