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When Carry Goes Bad: The Magnitude, Causes, and Duration of Currency Carry Unwinds

Author

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  • Michael Melvin
  • Duncan Shand

Abstract

We analyze the worst currency carry loss episodes in recent decades, including causes, attribution by currency, timing, and the duration of carry drawdowns. To explore the determinants of the length of carry losses, a model of carry drawdown duration is estimated. We find evidence that drawdown duration varies systematically with expected return from the carry trade at the onset of the drawdown, financial stress indicators and the magnitude of deviations from a fundamental value portfolio of the carry-related portfolio holdings. In an out-of-sample test, we show that these determinants can be used to control carry-related losses and improve investment performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Melvin & Duncan Shand, 2016. "When Carry Goes Bad: The Magnitude, Causes, and Duration of Currency Carry Unwinds," CESifo Working Paper Series 6210, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lasse Pedersen, 2009. "When Everyone Runs for the Exit," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 177-199, December.
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    3. Daniel, Kent & Hodrick, Robert J. & Lu, Zhongjin, 2017. "The Carry Trade: Risks and Drawdowns," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 211-262, September.
    4. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W., 2011. "What happened to the quants in August 2007? Evidence from factors and transactions data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, February.
    5. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2007. "Do Professional Currency Managers Beat the Benchmark?," NBER Working Papers 13714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
    7. Jurek, Jakub W., 2014. "Crash-neutral currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 325-347.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    carry trade; financial risk; duration; active portfolio management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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