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Early Warning for Currency Crises: What Is the Role of Financial Openness?

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  • Jon Frost
  • Ayako Saiki

Abstract

The paper explores whether financial openness—capital account openness and gross capital inflows—makes countries vulnerable to currency crises. A quarterly dataset on 46 advanced and emerging market economies (AEs and EMEs) during 1975Q1–2011Q4 is used, with the period after Q2 2007 used for out-of-sample testing. The key findings are: (1) capital account openness is associated with lower probability of currency crises, but less so for EMEs; (2) surges in gross capital flows are associated with increased risk of currency crises; and (3) the model performs well out-of-sample, confirming that early warning models are helpful in judging relative vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon Frost & Ayako Saiki, 2014. "Early Warning for Currency Crises: What Is the Role of Financial Openness?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 722-743, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:22:y:2014:i:4:p:722-743
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roie.12124
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    2. Bespalova, Olga, 2015. "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly…signals of currency crises: Does signal approach work in ex-ante forecasting of currency crises?," MPRA Paper 117863, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jul 2017.
    3. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2020. "Common Determinants of the Likelihood of Currency Crises in BRICS," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 698-712, June.
    4. Tristan Nguyen & Nguyen Ngoc Duy, 2017. "Developing an Early Warning System for Financial Crises in Vietnam," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 413-430, April.
    5. Mpho Bosupeng, 2018. "Leading Indicators and Financial Crisis: A Multi-Sectoral Approach Using Signal Extraction," Journal of Empirical Studies, Conscientia Beam, vol. 5(1), pages 20-44.
    6. Mengting Zhang & Andreas Steiner & Jakob de Haan & Haizhen Yang, 2024. "Capital flow reversals and currency crises: Do capital flow types matter?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1787-1823, September.
    7. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Zhai, Weiyang, 2020. "Financial structure, capital openness and financial crisis," MPRA Paper 105457, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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