IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i8p4691-d793660.html

COVID-19, Economic Policies and Public Debt Sustainability in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Pompeo Della Posta

    (The Belt and Road School, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519088, China)

  • Enrico Marelli

    (Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia, 25121 Brescia, Italy)

  • Marcello Signorelli

    (Department of Economics, University of Perugia, 06123 Perugia, Italy)

Abstract

We analyze the conditions for public debt-to-GDP ratio stability extending the Domar’s approach by including the interaction between the government’s reaction function and the private sector’s reaction function, and considering the impact of 2020–2021 pandemic shock and the monetary and fiscal policy responses, with simulations applied to the Italian case. The outcomes of the numerical simulations show the crucial importance of ECB extraordinary monetary policies, of the NGEU and, to lesser extent, of national expansionary fiscal policies adopted during pandemic shock; both European wide monetary and fiscal policies actually increase the sustainability area avoiding the high risk of sovereign debt crisis in Italy (and other peripheral Eurozone countries). The stabilizing effect of GDP growth, hopefully resulting from the NGEU policy, is also simulated in the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Pompeo Della Posta & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2022. "COVID-19, Economic Policies and Public Debt Sustainability in Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:8:p:4691-:d:793660
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/8/4691/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/8/4691/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blyth, Mark, 2015. "Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199389445.
    2. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    3. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Ferdinandusse, Marien & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Jacquinot, Pascal & Valenta, Vilém, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of the Next Generation EU instrument on the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 255, European Central Bank.
    4. George Hondroyiannis & Dimitrios Papaoikonomou, 2022. "The effect of Eurosystem asset purchase programmes on euro area sovereign bond yields during the COVID-19 pandemic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 2997-3026, December.
    5. Matías Vernengo & Suranjana Nabar-Bhaduri, 2020. "The Economic Consequences of COVID-19: The Great Shutdown and the Rethinking of Economic Policy," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 265-277, November.
    6. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    8. Robert Boyer, 2012. "The four fallacies of contemporary austerity policies: the lost Keynesian legacy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 36(1), pages 283-312.
    9. Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2019. "Putting Austerity to Bed: Technical Progress, Aggregate Demand and the Supermultiplier," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 315-335, July.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    11. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 141-146, May.
    12. Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2017. "Europe and the Euro," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-45729-1, March.
    13. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    14. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    15. John P. Watkins, 2021. "The Policy Response to COVID-19: The Implementation of Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 484-491, April.
    16. Pompeo Della Posta, 2018. "Fiscal austerity and monetary easing: which one is to be praised for ending the euro area crisis?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(1), pages 165-189, June.
    17. Olivier Blanchard & Gita Gopinath & Kenneth Rogoff, 2021. "Discussion on Public Debt and Fiscal Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 258-274, March.
    18. Lorenzo Forni & Geremia Palomba & Joana Pereira & Christine Richmond, 2021. "Sovereign debt restructuring and growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 671-697.
    19. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 2017. "Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution?," NBER Working Papers 24179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    21. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Relief And Its Aftermath," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 215-251, February.
    22. Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "Heterogeneous Market Beliefs, Fundamentals and the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Eurozone," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82, pages 1153-1176, December.
    23. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo & Sosa Padilla, César, 2014. "Voluntary sovereign debt exchanges," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 32-50.
    24. Saccone, Donatella & Posta, Pompeo Della & Marelli, Enrico & Signorelli, Marcello, 2022. "Public investment multipliers by functions of government: An empirical analysis for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 531-545.
    25. Dirk Ehnts & Michael Paetz, 2021. "COVID-19 and its economic consequences for the Euro Area," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 227-249, June.
    26. Olivier Blanchard & Gita Gopinath & Kenneth Rogoff, 0. "Discussion on Public Debt and Fiscal Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-17.
    27. William R. Emmons & Jacob Haas & Christopher J. Neely, 2020. "Responses of International Central Banks to the COVID-19 Crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(4), pages 338-384, October.
    28. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-271, February.
    29. Pompeo Della Posta & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2020. "A market‐financed and growth‐enhancing investment plan for the euro area," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 604-632, July.
    30. Eckhard Hein & Daniel Detzer, 2015. "Post-Keynesian Alternative Policies to Curb Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 217-236, June.
    31. Suzanne J. Konzelmann, 2014. "The political economics of austerity," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 701-741.
    32. A. Ya. Zaporozhan, 2021. "Economic Stability and (or) Economic Growth," Administrative Consulting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management., issue 11.
    33. William D. Nordhaus, 1998. "Quality Change in Price Indexes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 59-68, Winter.
    34. Hernán Ricardo Briceño & Javier Perote, 2020. "Determinants of the Public Debt in the Eurozone and Its Sustainability Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-29, August.
    35. Philipp Pfeiffer & Werner Roeger & Jan in ’t Veld, 2020. "The COVID19-Pandemic in the EU: Macroeconomic Transmission and Economic Policy Response," European Economy - Discussion Papers 127, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asad Nisar & Rabia Rafique, 2025. "Fiscal strategies for sustainable debt management in developing economies: dynamic common correlated effects approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1-31, August.
    2. Stefano Deriu & Marcello Signorelli & Claudio Socci & Rosita Pretaroli & Francesca Severini & Ludovica Almonti, 2024. "The impact of shocks and policies on debt-to-GDP ratio dynamics: a multisectoral approach," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 417-438, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pompeo Della Posta & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2020. "A market‐financed and growth‐enhancing investment plan for the euro area," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 604-632, July.
    2. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    3. Ablam Estel Apeti & Jean-Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "Did Fiscal Space Foster Covid-19's Fiscal Stimuli ?," Post-Print hal-03351634, HAL.
    4. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    5. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2021. "Financial Dominance in the Pandemic and Post-Pandemic European Economy," Working Papers in Public Economics 206, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome.
    6. National Bank of Poland, 2022. "Macroeconomic policy response to the Covid-19 shock," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The monetary-fiscal policy nexus in the wake of the pandemic, volume 122, pages 241-250, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2019. "Sovereign risk after sovereign restructuring. Private and official default," Working Papers 423, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    8. Pompeo Della Posta & Mario Morroni, 2022. "The credibility of monetary policy and the fiscal response to the pandemic in the Eurozone," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 77-96, April.
    9. João Tovar Jalles & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2022. "Economic Growth After Debt Surges," IMF Working Papers 2022/159, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Rosaria Rita Canale & Rita Siano, 2024. "Is government debt a burden on workers' income share? An investigation on Italian dynamics," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 543-563, July.
    11. Marchesi, Silvia & Masi, Tania, 2021. "Life after default. Private and official deals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Mervin Goklas Hamonangan, 2025. "Rethinking Indonesia's Public Debt in the Era of Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials," Papers 2507.18092, arXiv.org.
    13. Pfeiffer, Philipp & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2021. "Optimal fiscal policy with low interest rates for government debt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Jalles, João Tovar & Medas, Paulo, 2024. "The economic aftermath of surges in public and private debt: Initial conditions and channels," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    15. Gollier, Christian & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Zheng, Jiakun, 2023. "The discounting premium puzzle: Survey evidence from professional economists," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    16. Mehrotra, Neil R. & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2021. "Debt sustainability in a low interest rate world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 1-18.
    17. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
    18. Ardanaz, Martín & López, Zoila Llempén & Puig, Jorge & Valencia, Oscar, 2025. "Public investment multipliers and the role of efficiency: new evidence for emerging markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    19. Robert Rowthorn, 2019. "Keynesian Economics - Back from the Dead? The Godley-Tobin Lecture," Working Papers wp512, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    20. Marie‐Helene Gagnon & Celine Gimet, 2020. "Unconventional economic policies and sentiment: An international assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1544-1591, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:8:p:4691-:d:793660. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.