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The effect of Eurosystem asset purchase programmes on euro area sovereign bond yields during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • George Hondroyiannis

    (Bank of Greece and Harokopio University)

  • Dimitrios Papaoikonomou

    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

We investigate the effect of Eurosystem Asset Purchase Programmes (APP) on the monthly yields of 10-year sovereign bonds for 11 euro area sovereigns during January-December 2020. The analysis is based on time-varying coefficient methods applied to monthly panel data covering the period 2004m09 to 2020m12. During 2020 APP contributed to an average decline in yields estimated in the range of 58-76 bps. In December 2020 the effect per EUR trillion ranged between 34 bps in Germany and 159 bps in Greece. Stronger effects generally display diminishing returns. Our findings suggest that a sharp decline in the size of the APP in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis could lead to very sharp increases in bond yields, particularly in peripheral countries. The analysis additionally reveals a differential response to global risks between core and peripheral countries, with the former enjoying safe-haven benefits. Markets’ perceptions of risk are found to be significantly affected by credit ratings, which is in line with recent evidence based on constant parameter methods.

Suggested Citation

  • George Hondroyiannis & Dimitrios Papaoikonomou, 2021. "The effect of Eurosystem asset purchase programmes on euro area sovereign bond yields during the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 291, Bank of Greece.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:291
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
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    3. Corradin, Stefano & Grimm, Niklas & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "Euro area sovereign bond risk premia during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2561, European Central Bank.
    4. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Sovereign debt spreads in EMU: The time-varying role of fundamentals and market distrust," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 187-206.
    5. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Petros Migiakis, 2018. "Quantitative easing and sovereign bond yields: a global perspective," Working Papers 253, Bank of Greece.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dirk Broeders & Leo de Haan & Jan Willem van den End, 2022. "How QE changes the nature of sovereign risk," Working Papers 737, DNB.
    2. Pompeo Della Posta & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2022. "COVID-19, Economic Policies and Public Debt Sustainability in Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Gong Cheng & Andrea Consiglio & Stavros A. Zenios, 2022. "Debt sustainability and monetary policy: the case of ECB asset purchases," BIS Working Papers 1034, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area; asset purchase programmes; sovereign bond yields; time-varying parameters.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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