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Euro area sovereign bond risk premia during the Covid-19 pandemic

Author

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  • Corradin, Stefano
  • Grimm, Niklas
  • Schwaab, Bernd

Abstract

We decompose euro area sovereign bond yields into five distinct components: i) expected future short-term risk-free rates and a term premium, ii) default risk premium, iii) redenomination risk premium, iv) liquidity risk premium, and a v) segmentation (convenience) premium. Identification is achieved by considering sovereign bond yields jointly with other rates, including sovereign credit default swap spreads with and without redenomination as a credit event feature. We apply our framework to study the impact of European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and European Union (E.U.) fiscal policy announcements during the Covid-19 pandemic recession. We find that both monetary and fiscal policy announcements had a pronounced effect on yields, mostly through default, redenomination, and segmentation premia. While the ECB's unconventional monetary policy announcements benefited some (vulnerable) countries more than others, owing to unprecedented flexibility in implementing bond purchases, the E.U.’s fiscal policy announcements lowered yields more uniformly. JEL Classification: C22, G11

Suggested Citation

  • Corradin, Stefano & Grimm, Niklas & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "Euro area sovereign bond risk premia during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2561, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212561
    Note: 1103497
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    Cited by:

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    2. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Nissinen, Juuso & Sihvonen, Markus, 2024. "Bond convenience curves and funding costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. George Hondroyiannis & Dimitrios Papaoikonomou, 2022. "The effect of Eurosystem asset purchase programmes on euro area sovereign bond yields during the COVID-19 pandemic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 2997-3026, December.
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Sarah Holton & Danielle Kedan & Gillian Phelan, 2024. "Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policymakers at the ECB," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 837-864, June.
    6. Blotevogel, Robert & Hudecz, Gergely & Vangelista, Elisabetta, 2024. "Asset purchases and sovereign bond spreads in the euro area during the pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Gergely Hudecz & Elisabetta Vangelista & Robert Blotevogel, 2022. "Asset purchases and sovereign risk premia in the euro area during the pandemic," Working Papers 55, European Stability Mechanism, revised 12 Sep 2022.
    8. Jappelli, Ruggero & Lucke, Konrad & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2022. "Price and liquidity discovery in European sovereign bonds and futures," SAFE Working Paper Series 350, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    9. Busetto, Filippo, 2024. "Asymmetric expectations of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 1058, Bank of England.
    10. Julio Gálvez, 2021. "Measuring interconnectedness across institutions and sectors," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    11. Mislav Brkic, 2022. "Preserving economic and financial stability in an emerging market country during the pandemic crisis: Croatia’s experience," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 321-354.
    12. Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Helbig, Samuel & Nover, Justus, 2022. "Dispelling the shadow of fiscal dominance? Fiscal and monetary announcement effects for euro area sovereign spreads in the corona pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. Julio Gálvez, 2021. "Measuring interconnectedness across institutions and sectors," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    14. Julio Gálvez, 2021. "Measuring interconnectedness across institutions and sectors," Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de España, issue Otoño.
    15. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.
    16. Bank for International Settlements, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases in response to the Covid-19 crisis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 68, december.
    17. Berardi, Andrea, 2023. "Term premia and short rate expectations in the euro area," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ECB; event study; Kalman filter; sovereign bond yields;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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