IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v140y2024ics0261560623001791.html

Asset purchases and sovereign bond spreads in the euro area during the pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Blotevogel, Robert
  • Hudecz, Gergely
  • Vangelista, Elisabetta

Abstract

We analyse the impact of ECB asset purchases on sovereign bond spreads during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using an enhanced event study design, we trace the impact of asset purchases over time, distinguishing between announcements, expectations, and implementation effects. The analysis draws on a new granular cross-country dataset of the ECB’s asset purchases and market expectations. We find large announcement effects, particularly for countries with lower sovereign credit ratings. Expectations about the final size of ECB asset purchases (‘the stock’) and actually implemented net purchases (‘the flows’) affected sovereign spreads at the time of severe market stress with significant cross-country variations. Overall, the ECB’s asset purchases were highly effective in warding off risks of financial fragmentation in the euro area during the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Blotevogel, Robert & Hudecz, Gergely & Vangelista, Elisabetta, 2024. "Asset purchases and sovereign bond spreads in the euro area during the pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:140:y:2024:i:c:s0261560623001791
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102978
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560623001791
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102978?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    2. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: a multi-country review [Uncertainty of interest rate path as a monetary policy instrument]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 749-799.
    3. Gnewuch, Matthias, 2022. "Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:80:p:749-799 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Anne-Laure Delatte & Alexis Guillaume, 2020. "Covid 19: a new challenge for the EMU," Working Papers 2020-08, CEPII research center.
    6. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    7. Richard Finlay & Dmitry Titkov & Michelle Xiang, 2023. "The Yield and Market Function Effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Bond Purchases," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(326), pages 359-384, September.
    8. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    9. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    10. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    11. Klose Jens & Tillmann Peter, 2021. "COVID-19 and Financial Markets: A Panel Analysis for European Countries," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 241(3), pages 297-347, June.
    12. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2018. "ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels [The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-44.
    13. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    14. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    15. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    16. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2022. "The fragility of the Eurozone: Has it disappeared?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    17. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
    18. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    19. Fendel, Ralf & Neugebauer, Frederik & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2021. "Reactions of euro area government yields to Covid-19 related policy measure announcements by the European Commission and the European Central Bank," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    20. Guido Lorenzoni & Iván Werning, 2019. "Slow Moving Debt Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3229-3263, September.
    21. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2016. "ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy: Market Impact and International Spillovers," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 36-74, May.
    22. Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier & Simone Manganelli & Olivier Vergote, 2017. "A High-Frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 218-243.
    23. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    24. Corradin, Stefano & Grimm, Niklas & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "Euro area sovereign bond risk premia during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2561, European Central Bank.
    25. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    26. Roberto A. De Santis & Fédéric Holm‐Hadulla, 2020. "Flow Effects of Central Bank Asset Purchases on Sovereign Bond Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1467-1491, September.
    27. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2016. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 29-57, September.
    28. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    29. Eric T. Swanson, 2011. "Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 151-207.
    30. Tobias S. Blattner & Michael A. S. Joyce, 2020. "The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1361-1395, September.
    31. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    32. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Mamaysky, Harry, 2018. "The time horizon of price responses to quantitative easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 32-49.
    34. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    35. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    36. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    37. Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Helbig, Samuel & Nover, Justus, 2022. "Dispelling the shadow of fiscal dominance? Fiscal and monetary announcement effects for euro area sovereign spreads in the corona pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    38. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.
    39. Carlo Altavilla & Giacomo Carboni & Roberto Motto, 2021. "Asset Purchase Programs and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-48, October.
    40. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.
    41. Wright, Jonathan H., 2019. "Comment on “Measuring euro area monetary policy” by Carlo Altavilla, Luca Brugnolini, Refet Gürkaynak, Giuseppe Ragusa and Roberto Motto," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 180-184.
    42. Andrew Bailey & Jonathan Bridges & Richard Harrison & Josh Jones & Aakash Mankodi, 2020. "The central bank balance sheet as a policy tool: past, present and future," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 899, Bank of England.
    43. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2023. "Corrigendum: A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 31-32, May.
    44. Ben S. Bernanke, 2020. "The New Tools of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 943-983, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muñiz, José Antonio & Larkin, Charles & Corbet, Shaen, 2025. "Understanding the use of unconventional monetary policy for portfolio decarbonisation in Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Tarek Chebbi & Bruno S. Sergi & Salem Hamad Aldawsari, 2026. "Spread the foreign redenomination risk to default premia: dynamic frequency connectedness analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-40, December.
    3. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.
    2. Gnewuch, Matthias, 2022. "Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. van der Zwan, Terri & Kole, Erik & van der Wel, Michel, 2024. "Heterogeneous macro and financial effects of ECB asset purchase programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Gergely Hudecz & Elisabetta Vangelista & Robert Blotevogel, 2022. "Asset purchases and sovereign risk premia in the euro area during the pandemic," Working Papers 55, European Stability Mechanism, revised 12 Sep 2022.
    5. Fanelli, Luca & Marsi, Antonio, 2022. "Sovereign spreads and unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: A tale of three shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    7. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Caroline Bozou, 2023. "The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," Working Papers hal-04159848, HAL.
    8. Hubert, Paul & Blot, Christophe & Bozou, Caroline & Creel, Jérôme, 2024. "Same actions, different effects: The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    9. Farinha, Jorge Bento & Vidrago, José, 2021. "The impact of the ECB's asset purchase programme on core and peripheral sovereign yields and its transmission channels," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    10. Luca Fanelli & Antonio Marsi, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: A Tale of Three Shocks," Working Papers wp1164, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    11. Farinha, Jorge Bento & Vidrago, José, 2021. "The impact of the ECB’s asset purchase programme on euro area equities," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 270-279.
    12. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News 1," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-05481635, HAL.
    13. Paul Hubert & Rose Portier, 2025. "The Signaling Effects of Tightening and Easing Monetary Policy," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-05097460, HAL.
    14. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2022. "The Conditional PaThéof Central Bank Asset Purchases," Working papers 885, Banque de France.
    15. Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2024. "Central bank policies and financial markets: Lessons from the euro crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    17. Mucai Lin & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2026. "Silent News in China's Monetary Policy Announcements: Dual-Shock Identification with Ordered Heteroskedasticity," Working Papers 2026-02-01, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    18. Leombroni, Matteo & Vedolin, Andrea & Venter, Gyuri & Whelan, Paul, 2021. "Central bank communication and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 860-880.
    19. Andrejs Zlobins, 2024. "On the time-varying effects of the ECB’s asset purchases," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(6), pages 2593-2623, June.
    20. Kortela, Tomi & Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Identification through the yield curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2020, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:140:y:2024:i:c:s0261560623001791. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.