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Price and liquidity discovery in European sovereign bonds and futures

Author

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  • Jappelli, Ruggero
  • Lucke, Konrad
  • Pelizzon, Loriana

Abstract

This work uses financial markets connected by arbitrage relations to investigate the dynamics of price and liquidity discovery, which refer to the cross-instrument forecasting power for prices and liquidity, respectively. Specifically, we seek to understand the linkage between the cheapest to deliver bond and closest futures pairs by using high-frequency data on European governments obligations and derivatives. We split the 2019-2021 sample into three subperiods to appreciate changes in the liquidity discovery induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Within a cointegration model, we find that price discovery occurs on the futures market, and document strong empirical support for liquidity spillovers both from the futures to the cash market as well as from the cash to the futures market.

Suggested Citation

  • Jappelli, Ruggero & Lucke, Konrad & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2022. "Price and liquidity discovery in European sovereign bonds and futures," SAFE Working Paper Series 350, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:350
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Todd M. Hazelkorn & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kaushik Vasudevan, 2020. "Beyond Basis Basics: Liquidity Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 26773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jan Ericsson & Olivier Renault, 2006. "Liquidity and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2219-2250, October.
    5. Corradin, Stefano & Grimm, Niklas & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "Euro area sovereign bond risk premia during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2561, European Central Bank.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    7. Daniel Barth & R. Jay Kahn, 2021. "Hedge Funds and the Treasury Cash-Futures Disconnect," Working Papers 21-01, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fixed Income; Limits to Arbitrage; Market Liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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