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The macroeconomic impact of the Next Generation EU instrument on the euro area

Author

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  • Bańkowski, Krzysztof
  • Ferdinandusse, Marien
  • Hauptmeier, Sebastian
  • Jacquinot, Pascal
  • Valenta, Vilém

Abstract

In response to the economic fallout from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the European Council agreed on the Next Generation EU (NGEU) instrument. NGEU allows the European Commission to issue debt to finance grants and loans to EU Member States, with the disbursement of funds intended to be weighted towards the countries most affected by the crisis. This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact on the euro area of different uses of NGEU, using a large dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the euro area and global economy (EAGLE) that has been adapted to reflect the modalities of the NGEU instrument. Three uses of NGEU loans and grants are explored: (i) productive public investment, (ii) unproductive government spending, and (iii) replacing or repaying existing sovereign debt. The EAGLE results are cross-checked with a semi-structural model (ECB-BASE) and with the basic model elasticities (BMEs) of the forecasting models in use in the national central banks of the Eurosystem. JEL Classification: C54, E62, E65, F54, F47

Suggested Citation

  • Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Ferdinandusse, Marien & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Jacquinot, Pascal & Valenta, Vilém, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of the Next Generation EU instrument on the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 255, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2021255
    Note: 2648110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Pablo Burriel & Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Schön & Nikolai Stähler, 2020. "Economic consequences of high public debt: evidence from three large scale DSGE models," Working Papers 2029, Banco de España.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nikolaos Apostolopoulos & Marios Psychalis & Panagiotis Liargovas, 2022. "Discussing EU Policies and Mechanisms towards the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis: A Case Study of Greece," World, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, October.
    2. Garcia, Pablo & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lenarčič, Črt & Lozej, Matija & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2023. "Global models for a global pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Simon Loretz, 2022. "Energiepreisschock trübt auch mittelfristig die Wirtschaftsaussichten. Mittelfristige Prognose 2023 bis 2027," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 95(10), pages 643-661, October.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
    5. Priscila Espinosa & Daniel Aparicio-Pérez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2023. "On the Impact of Next Generation EU Funds: A Regional Synthetic Control Method Approach," Working Papers 2023/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    6. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Melina Vasardani & Evangelia Vourvachaki, 2021. "The impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility on the Greek economy," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 53, pages 7-28, July.
    7. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
    8. Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel, 2023. "Comparing different features of a fiscal stimulus in the euro area," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04122087, HAL.
    9. Ginters Buss & Patrick Gruning & Olegs Tkacevs, 2021. "Choosing the European Fiscal Rule," Working Papers 2021/03, Latvijas Banka.
    10. Wifo, 2021. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(4), April.
    11. Delgado , Francisco J., 2021. "Next Generation EU: una panorámica y su dimensión regional en España," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 50, pages 5-12.
    12. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2021. "Financial Dominance in the Pandemic and Post-Pandemic European Economy," Working Papers in Public Economics 206, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    13. Paolo Maranzano & Mario Noera & Roberto Romano, 2021. "The European industrial challenge and the Italian NRRP," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(298), pages 207-218.
    14. Julia Bachtrögler-Unger & Margit Schratzenstaller & Franz Sinabell, 2021. "Der europäische COVID-19-Aufbauplan," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(4), pages 321-332, April.
    15. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Bouabdallah, Othman & Domingues Semeano, João & Dorrucci, Ettore & Freier, Maximilian & Jacquinot, Pascal & Modery, Wolfgang & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta & Valenta, Vilém & Zorell, , 2022. "The economic impact of Next Generation EU: a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 291, European Central Bank.
    16. Pompeo Della Posta & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2022. "COVID-19, Economic Policies and Public Debt Sustainability in Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.
    17. Julia Bachtrögler-Unger & Margit Schratzenstaller & Franz Sinabell, 2021. "Der europäische COVID-19-Aufbauplan," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(4), pages 321-334, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; EMU; euro area; NextGenerationEU; public investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F54 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Colonialism; Imperialism; Postcolonialism
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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