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Sovereign debt restructuring and growth
[Investment cycles and sovereign debt overhang]

Author

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  • Lorenzo Forni
  • Geremia Palomba
  • Joana Pereira
  • Christine Richmond

Abstract

This paper studies the relation between sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors and growth during the period 1970–2010. We find that, while growth generally declines in the aftermath of a sovereign debt restructuring, agreements that allow countries to exit a default spell (final restructurings) are associated with improving growth. The difference can be significant. In general, three years after restructuring, growth is about 5% lower compared to countries that did not face restructuring over the same period. The exception is for final restructurings, which result in positive growth in the years immediately after the restructuring. Final restructurings are associated with larger debt reliefs, and we show that post-restructuring growth is higher in countries that exit final restructurings with relatively low debt levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Forni & Geremia Palomba & Joana Pereira & Christine Richmond, 2021. "Sovereign debt restructuring and growth [Investment cycles and sovereign debt overhang]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 671-697.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:73:y:2021:i:2:p:671-697.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpaa033
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    Cited by:

    1. Gong Cheng & Javier Diaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of official debt restructuring: evidence from the Paris Club," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 344-363.
    2. Tamon Asonuma & Marcos Chamon & Aitor Erce & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "Costs of sovereign defaults: Restructuring strategies, bank distress and the capital inflow-credit channel," Working Papers 37, European Stability Mechanism.
    3. Marchesi, Silvia & Masi, Tania, 2021. "Life after default. Private and official deals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Bédhat Jean-Marc Atsebi & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2019. "The trade costs of financial crises," Working Papers halshs-01990335, HAL.
    5. Gong Cheng & Javier Diaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce, 2017. "From Debt Collection to Relief Provision: 60 Years of Official Debt Restructurings through the Paris Club," Working Papers 20, European Stability Mechanism.
    6. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2019. "Sovereign risk after sovereign restructuring. Private and official default," Working Papers 423, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    7. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2018. "Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 617-664, December.
    8. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2020. "The price of haircuts: private and official default," Development Working Papers 460, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 06 Feb 2020.
    9. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi & Pietro Bomprezzi, 2021. "Is to Forgive to Forget? Sovereign Risk in the Aftermath of a Default," Development Working Papers 475, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    10. Gatien Bon & Gong Cheng, 2020. "China’s debt relief actions overseas and macroeconomic implications," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Silvia Marchesi, 2016. "Life after default? Private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings," Development Working Papers 398, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 26 Aug 2016.
    12. Cheng, Gong & Díaz-Cassou, Javier & Erce, Aitor, 2018. "Official debt restructurings and development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 181-195.
    13. Gong Cheng & Javier Diaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce, 2017. "From Debt Collection to Relief Provision: 60 Years of Official Debt Restructurings through the Paris Club," Working Papers 20, European Stability Mechanism.
    14. Pompeo Della Posta & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2022. "COVID-19, Economic Policies and Public Debt Sustainability in Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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