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Auswirkungen globaler wirtschaftspolitischer Unsicherheit auf die deutsche Konjunktur

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  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Beckmann, Joscha
  • Jannsen, Nils

Abstract

Die Konjunktur in Deutschland hat sich seit Beginn des Jahres 2018 spürbar eingetrübt. Gleichzeitig ist die globale wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit aufgrund verschiedener Ereignisse, wie den zunehmenden internationalen Handelskonflikten, deutlich gestiegen. Globale Unsicherheit kann die deutsche Konjunktur über mehrere Kanäle beeinflussen. So führt ein Anstieg der Unsicherheit tendenziell zu einer Verlangsamung der weltwirtschaftlichen Aktivität. Zudem wird die Investitionstätigkeit durch Unsicherheitsschübe typischerweise besonders stark beeinträchtigt . Da die deutschen Unternehmen exportorientiert und dabei vorwiegend auf Investitionsgüter spezialisiert sind, könnte die deutsche Wirtschaft somit besonders von Anstiegen der globalen Unsicherheit in Mitleidenschaft gezogen werden. In diesem Zusammenhang könnte sich auch die Erwartungshaltung seitens der Unternehmen verschlechtern und in der Folge die Investitionsbereitschaft hierzulande negativ beeinträchtigen. Vor diesem Hintergrund soll im Folgenden untersucht werden, in welchem Maße Schwankungen der globalen wirtschaftspolitischen Unsicherheit einen spürbaren Einfluss auf die deutsche Konjunktur ausüben.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Beckmann, Joscha & Jannsen, Nils, 2019. "Auswirkungen globaler wirtschaftspolitischer Unsicherheit auf die deutsche Konjunktur," Kiel Insight 2019.8, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:20198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia, 2020. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2020 - Deutsche Wirtschaft im Zeichen des Corona-V(irus) [German Economy Spring 2020 - German economy: V(irus)-shaped recession ahead]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 65, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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