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Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2019 - Deutsche Konjunktur im Sinkflug
[German Economy Summer 2019 - German economy falters]

Author

Listed:
  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Mösle, Saskia
  • Potjagailo, Galina

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich im Abschwung. In den vergangenen Monaten hat sich die konjunkturelle Dynamik weiter verlangsamt, und die Unternehmen blicken deutlich pessimistischer in die Zukunft. Dazu beigetragen haben dürfte nicht zuletzt auch die weltweit hohe wirtschaftspolitische Unsicherheit. Für das zweite Quartal zeichnet sich sogar ein Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts ab. Vor diesem Hintergrund rechnen wir nun gegenüber unserer Prognose vom Frühjahr mit geringeren Zuwachsraten des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 0,6 Prozent im laufenden Jahr (Frühjahr: 1 Prozent) und 1,6 Prozent im kommenden Jahr (1,8 Prozent). In der zweiten Jahreshälfte dürfte die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion wieder aufwärts gerichtet sein, wenn auch in moderatem Tempo. Dafür spricht, dass der private Konsum mit den weiter kräftig steigenden Einkommen wieder spürbar zulegen dürfte, nachdem er im zweiten Quartal angesichts der sehr hohen Zuwachsrate zum Jahresauftakt eine Verschnaufpause einlegen wird. Auch die Exporte, die zuletzt deutlich hinter der recht robusten weltwirtschaftlichen Expansion zurückgeblieben sind, werden wohl allmählich wieder Tritt fassen. Schließlich dürften die Bauinvestitionen deutlich aufwärts gerichtet bleiben, wobei die fortbestehenden Kapazitätsengpässe zu weiter kräftig steigenden Baupreisen führen werden. Von den Unternehmensinvestitionen sind angesichts der eingetrübten Absatz- und Ertragsaussichten dagegen keine größeren Impulse mehr zu erwarten. Die langsamere konjunkturelle Entwicklung wird auch am Arbeitsmarkt Spuren hinterlassen. Insbesondere im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe planen mehr und mehr Unternehmen, die Zahl der Beschäftigten zu reduzieren. Hinzu kommt, dass offenbar immer noch viele Unternehmen, die weiterhin nach Fachpersonal suchen, Schwierigkeiten haben, offene Stellen zu besetzen. Die Überschüsse der öffentlichen Haushalte dürften merklich zurückgehen, da die geringere konjunkturelle Dynamik insbesondere die Einnahmen belasten wird, während die Ausgaben planmäßig deutlich ausgeweitet werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Potjagailo, Galina, 2019. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2019 - Deutsche Konjunktur im Sinkflug [German Economy Summer 2019 - German economy falters]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 56, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Stabilisierungspolitik; Frühindikatoren; Ausblick;
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