IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/20-215.html

Real Estate Taxes and Home Value: Evidence from TCJA

Author

Listed:
  • Wenli Li

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

  • Edison Yu

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

Abstract

We examine the impact of changes in the federal tax treatment of owner-occupied housing stemming from the implementation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in January 2018 on local housing markets. Using county-level house price information and IRS tax data, we find that, holding everything else the same, capping the federal tax deduction of state and local taxes at $10,000 has caused the growth rate of home value to decline by an annualized 0.9 percentage point, or 18 percent, in areas where real estate taxes as shares of taxable income exceeded the national median. The results are robust when controlling for other changes in the tax reform. The areas with a high real estate tax burden also suffered from reductions in market liquidity after the reform. Fewer houses were transacted either in absolute numbers or as shares of total listings and houses stayed on the market longer before being sold. Importantly, we find that the housing market slowdown was accompanied by declines in local construction employment growth as well as multi-family building permits. Furthermore, on net more people moved out of these areas after the reform. Finally, we show that the act has already had political consequences. In the 2018 midterm Senate elections, more voters voted for Democratic candidates in areas with high real estate tax burden than they did for Republican candidates. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Wenli Li & Edison Yu, 2022. "Real Estate Taxes and Home Value: Evidence from TCJA," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 125-151, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:20-215
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2021.02.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2021.02.003
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See https://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.red.2021.02.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Poterba, James M, 1992. "Taxation and Housing: Old Questions, New Answers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 237-242, May.
    2. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    3. Poterba, James M. & Sinai, Todd, 2011. "Revenue Costs and Incentive Effects of the Mortgage Interest Deduction for Owner-Occupied Housing," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(2), pages 531-564, June.
    4. Casey McQuillan & Richard Peach, 2019. "Is the Recent Tax Reform Playing a Role in the Decline of Home Sales?," Liberty Street Economics 20190415, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    6. Rosen, Harvey S & Rosen, Kenneth T, 1980. "Federal Taxes and Homeownership: Evidence from Time Series," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 59-75, February.
    7. Gervais, Martin, 2002. "Housing taxation and capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1461-1489, October.
    8. David Albouy & Andrew Hanson, 2014. "Tax Benefits to Housing and Inefficiencies in Location and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 19815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Chambers, Matthew & Garriga, Carlos & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 2009. "Housing policy and the progressivity of income taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1116-1134, November.
    10. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    11. David Albouy & Andrew Hanson, 2014. "Are Houses Too Big or In the Wrong Place? Tax Benefits to Housing and Inefficiencies in Location and Consumption," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 63-96.
    12. Jeffrey R. Brown, 2014. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 28," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brow13-1, March.
    13. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    14. Berkovec, James & Fullerton, Don, 1992. "A General Equilibrium Model of Housing, Taxes, and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 390-429, April.
    15. Christian A. L. Hilber & Tracy M. Turner, 2014. "The Mortgage Interest Deduction and its Impact on Homeownership Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 618-637, October.
    16. Hal Martin, 2018. "The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Local Home Values," Working Papers (Old Series) 1806, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    17. Sonia Gilbukh & Andrew F. Haughwout & Rebecca Landau & Joseph Tracy, 2019. "Did Tax Reform Raise the Cost of Owning a Home?," Liberty Street Economics 20190417, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01301589 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Nicole Gorton & Gizem Koşar & Richard Peach, 2018. "How Will the New Tax Law Affectt Homeowners in High Tax States? It Depends," Liberty Street Economics 20180411, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    21. Kamila Sommer & Paul Sullivan, 2018. "Implications of US Tax Policy for House Prices, Rents, and Homeownership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 241-274, February.
    22. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2015. "A Quantitative Analysis of the US Housing and Mortgage Markets and the Foreclosure Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 165-184, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bishop, Kelly C. & Dowling, Jakob & Kuminoff, Nicolai V. & Murphy, Alvin D., 2025. "Tax policy and the heterogeneous costs of homeownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Lawrence M. Kessler & Donald Bruce, 2024. "A SALT on real estate? Housing market and migration responses to the limit on the state and local tax deduction," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 683-704, October.
    3. Ambrose, Brent W. & Valentin, Maxence, 2025. "Federal tax policy and the capitalization of local public goods," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Maxence Valentin, 2024. "Subsidizing housing with deductions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1490-1515, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wenli Li & Edison Yu, 2020. "Real Estate Taxes and Home Value: Winners and Losers of TCJA," Working Papers 20-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Maxence Valentin, 2024. "Subsidizing housing with deductions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1490-1515, September.
    3. Bishop, Kelly C. & Dowling, Jakob & Kuminoff, Nicolai V. & Murphy, Alvin D., 2025. "Tax policy and the heterogeneous costs of homeownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Serena Fatica & Doris Prammer, 2018. "Housing and the Tax System: How Large Are the Distortions in the Euro Area?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 299-342, June.
    5. Lawrence M. Kessler & Donald Bruce, 2024. "A SALT on real estate? Housing market and migration responses to the limit on the state and local tax deduction," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 683-704, October.
    6. Hamed Ghiaie & Jean‐François Rouillard, 2022. "Housing tax expenditures and financial intermediation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 937-970, May.
    7. Hal Martin, 2018. "The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Local Home Values," Working Papers (Old Series) 1806, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Dawkins, Casey J., 2023. "The geography of US homeownership tax expenditures," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    9. Martin, Hal & Hanson, Andrew, 2016. "Metropolitan area home prices and the mortgage interest deduction: Estimates and simulations from policy change," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 12-23.
    10. Cenkhan Sahin, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of mortgage interest deduction," DNB Working Papers 514, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Michael P Keane & Xiangling Liu, 2024. "Tax preferences and housing affordability: Exploration using a life-cycle model," IFS Working Papers W24/48, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Euijune Kim & Ayoung Kim & Kyung-Min Nam, 2024. "Impacts of demand and supply-side interventions on South Korea’s housing markets: a dynamic housing-CGE analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 73(1), pages 397-429, June.
    13. Salvador Barrios & Cecile Denis & Viginta Ivaskaite-Tamosiune & Adriana Reut & Estefania Vazquez Torres, 2019. "Housing taxation: a new database for Europe," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2019-08, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Stefanie Braun, 2021. "Effects of Preferential Tax Treatment on German Homeownership," Working Papers 209, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    15. Jonathan Gruber & Amalie Jensen & Henrik Kleven, 2017. "Do People Respond to the Mortage Interest Deduction? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Denmark," NBER Working Papers 23600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Anastasia Girshina, 2016. "Implications of Fiscal Policy for Housing Tenure Decisions," Working Papers 2014:, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    17. Hembre, Erik & Dantas, Raissa, 2022. "Tax incentives and housing decisions: Effects of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    18. Graeme O'Meara, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Monetary Policy: A Reassessment," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 46(4), pages 521-565.
    19. Hamed Ghiaie & Jean-François Rouillard, 2018. "Housing Taxation and Financial Intermediation," Cahiers de recherche 18-01, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke, revised Nov 2018.
    20. Michael Warlters, 2023. "Stamp Duty Reform and Home Ownership," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(327), pages 492-511, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:20-215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.