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The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Local Home Values

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  • Hal Martin

Abstract

This paper simulates changes to neighborhood home prices resulting from reforms to tax preferences in the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The simulation uses federal tax data summarized at a fine geography to impute homeowner rents at the zip code level across six income classes. Employing a user cost framework, I model rents as a function of prices under the old tax law and under the TCJA. While the average price impact of the TCJA is found to be ?5.7 percent, local effects range from 0 to ?23 percent across zip codes. Variation across income class is also large. Simulations by income class suggest that the most severe declines in price occur for upper middle-income households ($100,000?$200,000). The paper also simulates partial versions of the TCJA that omit different features of the law that affect housing preference. I find that the higher standard deductions in the new law are the largest driver of price declines.

Suggested Citation

  • Hal Martin, 2018. "The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Local Home Values," Working Papers (Old Series) 1806, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1806
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-201806
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2003. "The Benefits of the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 17, pages 37-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kamila Sommer & Paul Sullivan, 2018. "Implications of US Tax Policy for House Prices, Rents, and Homeownership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 241-274, February.
    3. David Albouy & Andrew Hanson, 2014. "Tax Benefits to Housing and Inefficiencies in Location and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 19815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. James Poterba & Todd Sinai, 2008. "Tax Expenditures for Owner-Occupied Housing: Deductions for Property Taxes and Mortgage Interest and the Exclusion of Imputed Rental Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 84-89, May.
    5. Todd Sinai & Joseph Gyourko, 2004. "The (Un)changing Geographical Distribution of Housing Tax Benefits: 1980–2000," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 18, pages 175-208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Donald Bruce & Douglas Holtz-Eakin, 1997. "Apocalypse Now? Fundamental Tax Reform and Residential Housing Values," NBER Working Papers 6282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenli Li & Edison Yu, 2022. "Real Estate Taxes and Home Value: Evidence from TCJA," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 125-151, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage interest deductions; housing subsidy; income tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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