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Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Herbst 2019 - Potenzialwachstum kommt in die Jahre

Author

Listed:
  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Mösle, Saskia
  • Potjagailo, Galina
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Das Wachstum des Produktionspotenzials, also das bei Normalauslastung aller Produktionsfaktoren erzielbare Bruttoinlandsprodukt, lässt zunehmend nach und dürfte in der Mitte des kommenden Jahrzehnts nur noch rund 1 Prozent betragen. Aufgrund der Alterung der Bevölkerung gehen von der Entwicklung des Arbeitskräfteangebots erst kaum noch positive und zum Ende der Mittelfrist sogar negative Impulse auf das Potenzialwachstum aus. Nachdem das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in den vergangenen Jahren deutlich oberhalb des Produktionspotenzials lag, wird sich die Produktionslücke unserer Schätzung zufolge im laufenden Jahr nahezu schließen. Ausgehend von in etwa normal ausgelasteten Kapazitäten in der kurzen Frist rechnen wir mit einer leichten Beschleunigung der Konjunktur in der mittleren Frist. Gleichwohl wird die Konjunktur in Deutschland in den kommenden Jahren wohl nur wenig Dynamik entfalten.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Herbst 2019 - Potenzialwachstum kommt in die Jahre," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 60, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:60
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

    Produktionslücke; Produktionspotenzial; Mittelfristprojektion; Totale Faktorproduktivität;
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