IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/compec/v65y2025i2d10.1007_s10614-024-10698-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Household Financial Fragility, Debt and Income in a Dynamic Model

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio Calcagnini

    (University of Urbino
    University of Urbino)

  • Federico Favaretto

    (University of Urbino
    University of Urbino)

  • Germana Giombini

    (University of Urbino)

  • Fabio Tramontana

    (University of Urbino)

Abstract

We develop a novel dynamic model for household debt and household income change studying the interaction between financial fragility and financial literacy. We compare the results to the U.S. data under several parameterizations. Households react pro-cyclically to income shocks and are better able to represent aggregate data when financial literacy is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Calcagnini & Federico Favaretto & Germana Giombini & Fabio Tramontana, 2025. "Household Financial Fragility, Debt and Income in a Dynamic Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(2), pages 963-988, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:65:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-024-10698-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-024-10698-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10614-024-10698-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10614-024-10698-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boto Ferreira, Mário & Costa Pinto, Diego & Maurer Herter, Márcia & Soro, Jerônimo & Vanneschi, Leonardo & Castelli, Mauro & Peres, Fernando, 2021. "Using artificial intelligence to overcome over-indebtedness and fight poverty," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 411-425.
    2. Richard H. Day, 1983. "The Emergence of Chaos from Classical Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(2), pages 201-213.
    3. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2023. "The Importance of Financial Literacy: Opening a New Field," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 137-154, Fall.
    4. Sebastian Barnes & Garry Young, 2003. "The rise in US household debt: assessing its causes and sustainability," Bank of England working papers 206, Bank of England.
    5. Bischi, Gian Italo & Giombini, Germana & Travaglini, Giuseppe, 2022. "Monetary and fiscal policy in a nonlinear model of public debt," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 397-409.
    6. Scott R. Baker, 2018. "Debt and the Response to Household Income Shocks: Validation and Application of Linked Financial Account Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1504-1557.
    7. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    8. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    9. Matteo Iacoviello, 2008. "Household Debt and Income Inequality, 1963–2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 929-965, August.
    10. Asena Caner & Edward N. Wolff, 2004. "Asset Poverty In The United States, 1984–99: Evidence From The Panel Study Of Income Dynamics," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(4), pages 493-518, December.
    11. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    12. Giovanni D'Alessio & Stefano Iezzi, 2016. "Over-indebtedness in Italy: how widespread and persistent is it?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 319, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    14. Anna Zabai, 2017. "Household debt: recent developments and challenges," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    15. Lusardi, Annamaria & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2011. "Financial literacy around the world: an overview," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 497-508, October.
    16. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    17. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    18. Annamaria Lusardi & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2017. "Optimal Financial Knowledge and Wealth Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 431-477.
    19. Costas Azariadis & Luisa Lambertini, 2003. "Endogenous Debt Constraints in Lifecycle Economies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(3), pages 461-487.
    20. James S. Cloyne & Paolo Surico, 2017. "Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(1), pages 45-81.
    21. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    22. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano & Marco Di Maggio, 2013. "Households' indebtedness and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 23-46, January.
    23. Giorgio Calcagnini & Germana Giombini & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2021. "The Productivity Gap Among Major European Countries, USA and Japan," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(1), pages 59-78, March.
    24. Kathleen W. Johnson & Geng Li, 2010. "The Debt-Payment-to-Income Ratio as an Indicator of Borrowing Constraints: Evidence from Two Household Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1373-1390, October.
    25. Carmela Aurora Attin� & Francesco Franceschi & Valentina Michelangeli, 2019. "Modelling households� financial vulnerability with consumer credit and mortgage renegotiations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 531, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    26. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of household debt and balance sheets in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 266, Bank of England.
    27. J. W. Mason & Arjun Jayadev, 2014. ""Fisher Dynamics" in US Household Debt, 1929-2011," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 214-234, July.
    28. Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244, Decembrie.
    29. Anna Zabai, 2020. "How are household finances holding up against the Covid-19 shock?," BIS Bulletins 22, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Rinaldi, Laura & Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia, 2006. "Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 570, European Central Bank.
    31. Day, Richard H, 1982. "Irregular Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 406-414, June.
    32. Maria Demertzis & Annamaria Lusardi & Marta Domínguez-Jiménez, 2020. "The financial fragility of European households in the time of COVID-19," Bruegel Policy Contributions 37489, Bruegel.
    33. Carolina Guerini & Donato Masciandaro & Alessia Papini, 2024. "Literacy and Financial Education: Private Providers, Public Certification and Political Preferences," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24223, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 17-37.
    2. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: The painful legacy of credit booms," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2017, Bank of Finland.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Going with the flows: New borrowing, debt service and the transmission of credit booms," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2018, Bank of Finland.
    6. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2018. "Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 24549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: the painful legacy of credit booms," BIS Working Papers 645, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2023. "Long-term debt propagation and real reversals," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2023, Bank of Finland.
    9. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    10. Marco J. Lombardi & Madhusudan Mohanty & Ilhyock Shim, 2022. "The relationship of household debt and growth in the short and long run," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1887-1911, October.
    11. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and systemic-risk indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    12. Mian, A. & Sufi, A., 2016. "Who Bears the Cost of Recessions? The Role of House Prices and Household Debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 255-296, Elsevier.
    13. Jonathan Kearns & Mike Major & David Norman, 2021. "How Risky Is Australian Household Debt?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 313-330, September.
    14. Grzegorz Wałęga & Agnieszka Wałęga, 2021. "Over-indebted Households in Poland: Classification Tree Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 561-584, January.
    15. Dancho Petrov & Evgeniya Tonkova & Svetlana Todorova, 2020. "Structural and Value Dimensions of Household Indebtedness in Bulgaria," Izvestia Journal of the Union of Scientists - Varna. Economic Sciences Series, Union of Scientists - Varna, Economic Sciences Section, vol. 9(1), pages 17-25, April.
    16. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
    17. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis & Rob Calvert Jump, 2019. "Debt-driven business cycles in historical perspective: The cases of the USA (1889-2015) and UK (1882-2010)," Working Papers PKWP1907, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    18. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.
    19. Yun Jung Kim & Jing Zhang, 2021. "The Relationship Between Debt and Output," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 230-257, March.
    20. Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.
    21. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2022. "How do income and the debt position of households propagate fiscal stimulus into consumption?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    22. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Anil Kashyap & Caspar Siegert, 2019. "Would Macroprudential Regulation Have Prevented the Last Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 107-130, Winter.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; Income; Piecewise defined maps; Financial fragility; Financial literacy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:65:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-024-10698-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.