IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2019-258.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing Macro-Financial Risks of Household Debt in China

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Fei Han
  • Ms. Emilia M Jurzyk
  • Wei Guo
  • Yun He
  • Ms. Nadia Rendak

Abstract

High household indebtedness could constrain future consumption growth and increase financial stability risks. This paper uses household survey data to analyze both macroeconomic and finanical stability risks from the rapidly rising household debt in China. We find that rising household indebtedness could boost consumption in the short term, while reducing it in the medium-to-long term. By stress testing households’ debt repayment capacity, we find that low-income households are most vulnerable to adverse income shocks which could lead to signficant defaults. Containing these risks would call for a strengthening of systemic risk assessment and macroprudential policies of the household sector. Other policies include improving the credit registry system and establishing a well-functioning personal insolvency framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Fei Han & Ms. Emilia M Jurzyk & Wei Guo & Yun He & Ms. Nadia Rendak, 2019. "Assessing Macro-Financial Risks of Household Debt in China," IMF Working Papers 2019/258, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=48710
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    2. Nakajima, Jouchi, 2020. "The role of household debt heterogeneity on consumption: Evidence from Japanese household data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 186-197.
    3. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2016. "The Great Mortgaging," 2016 Meeting Papers 185, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Ding Ding & Xiaoyu Huang & Tao Jin & Mr. Waikei R Lam, 2017. "Assessing China’s Residential Real Estate Market," IMF Working Papers 2017/248, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Madhusudan Mohanty & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "The real effects of household debt in the short and long run," BIS Working Papers 607, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lukáš Fiala, 2021. "Modelling of mortgage debt´s determinants: the case of the Czech Republic," FFA Working Papers 4.002, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 15 Jan 2022.
    2. Robert Huterski & Agnieszka Anna Huterska & Justyna Łapińska & Ewa Zdunek-Rosa, 2020. "The problem of savings exclusion and gross savings in the new European Union member states," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(3), pages 2470-2480, March.
    3. Beer, Sonja, 2022. "Chinas Immobiliensektor: Wie groß ist die Krise?," IW-Reports 19/2022, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    4. Funke, Michael & Li, Xiang & Zhong, Doudou, 2023. "Household indebtedness, financial frictions and the transmission of monetary policy to consumption: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sarah Chan, 2020. "China’s Rising Household Debt: A New Debt Trap?," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 567-578, December.
    2. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: the painful legacy of credit booms," BIS Working Papers 645, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Going with the flows: New borrowing, debt service and the transmission of credit booms," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2018, Bank of Finland.
    4. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2018. "Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 24549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: the painful legacy of credit booms," BIS Working Papers 645, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
    9. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "The Janus-Faced Nature Of Debt: Results From A Data-Driven Cointegrated Svar Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 24-54, January.
    10. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
    11. Atif Mian, 2016. "Comment on "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, pages 274-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Dirk Bezemer & Anna Samarina, 2019. "Debt shift, financial development and income inequality," DNB Working Papers 646, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.
    14. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2022. "Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, April.
    15. Kösem, Sevim, 2021. "Income inequality, mortgage debt and house prices," Bank of England working papers 921, Bank of England.
    16. P. Reusens & Ch. Warisse, 2018. "House prices and economic growth in Belgium," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 81-106, december.
    17. Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2021. "Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1936, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Jiří Rajl, 2019. "The Impact of Regulatory Measures on the Development of Household Indebtedness," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(1), pages 5-23.
    19. Lukáš Fiala, 2022. "Modelling Household Mortgage Debt: the case of the Czech Republic," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(6), pages 443-463.
    20. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    21. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2017. "Bank-specific shocks and house price growth in the U.S," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    22. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2021. "Credit Supply Shocks and Household Defaults," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp691, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.