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Theory Ahead of Measurement? Assessing the Nonlinear Effects of Financial Market Disruptions

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Abstract

An important, yet untested, prediction of many macro models with financial frictions is that financial market disruptions can have highly nonlinear effects on economic activity. This paper presents empirical evidence supporting this prediction, and in particular that financial shocks have substantial (i) asymmetric and (ii) state dependent effects. First, negative shocks to credit supply have large and persistent effects on output, but positive shocks have no significant effect. Second, credit supply shocks have larger and more persistent effects in periods of weak economic growth.

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  • Régis Barnichon & Christian Matthes & Alexander Ziegenbein, 2016. "Theory Ahead of Measurement? Assessing the Nonlinear Effects of Financial Market Disruptions," Working Paper 16-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:16-15
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    2. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2025. "Machine learning the macroeconomic effects of financial shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    3. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "About Local Projection Impulse Response Function Reliability," CEIS Research Paper 440, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Jun 2018.
    4. Marcus Ingholt, 2018. "LTV vs. DTI Constraints: When Did They Bind, and How Do They Interact?," 2018 Meeting Papers 866, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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