IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aoz/wpaper/365.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Crypto Listens: Asymmetric Reactions to Text-based Signals in Central Bank Communications

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel Kaplan

    (UNC/UDESA)

  • Efstathios Polyzos

    (Zayed University/CAMA Australia)

  • David Tercero-Lucas

    (ICADE/ICAI/Universidad Pontificia Comillas)

Abstract

The growing influence of cryptocurrencies in global financial markets has raise questions about the impact of central bank communications on their price dynamics.This paper investigates how central bank communication affects the behaviour of cryptocurrency markets. Using a dataset of over 6,000 central bank speeches anda broad panel of crypto assets, we quantify sentiment, uncertainty, and fear tone through natural language processing and assess their impact using local projectionmethods. Our results show that positive tone initially depresses returns while raising volatility, whereas uncertainty and fear produce mixed return responses and amplifyprice fluctuations in the short run. Heterogeneity across asset types reveals stronger responses among emerging, high-performing, and non-stablecoin cryptocurrencies.The findings highlight the informational role of central bank narratives in shaping outcomes in speculative and decentralised markets, with important implications forcommunication policy and financial stability monitoring.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Kaplan & Efstathios Polyzos & David Tercero-Lucas, 2025. "Crypto Listens: Asymmetric Reactions to Text-based Signals in Central Bank Communications," Working Papers 365, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:365
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/365.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    3. Marmora, Paul, 2022. "Does monetary policy fuel bitcoin demand? Event-study evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Haroon Mumtaz & Jumana Saleheen & Roxane Spitznagel, 2023. "Keep it Simple: Central Bank Communication and Asset Prices," Working Papers 960, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Cornelli, Giulio & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2025. "Stablecoins, money market funds and monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    6. Hamzah Daud & Jochen Demuth & Daniel Little & Megan Rodden & Amber Seira & Cy Watsky, 2024. "Primary and Secondary Markets for Stablecoins," FEDS Notes 2024-02-23-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Jakob de Haan & Rasmus Wiese, 2022. "The impact of product and labour market reform on growth: Evidence for OECD countries based on local projections," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 746-770, June.
    8. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael, 2016. "Shocking language: Understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 114-133.
    9. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Hunter Ng, 2024. "How Wash Traders Exploit Market Conditions in Cryptocurrency Markets," Papers 2411.08720, arXiv.org.
    11. Shaen Corbet & Charles Larkin & Brian M. Lucey & Andrew Meegan & Larisa Yarovaya, 2020. "The impact of macroeconomic news on Bitcoin returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(14), pages 1396-1416, September.
    12. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., 1995. "What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 634-647, September.
    13. Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 140-155.
    14. Lachana, Ioanna & Schröder, David, 2025. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Wisdom of crowds or power of words? Evidence from Seeking Alpha and Wall Street Journal," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Pyun, Chaehyun, 2024. "Synchronous social media and the stock market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Steven J. Davis, 2016. "An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Efstathios Polyzos & Ghulame Rubbaniy & Mieszko Mazur, 2024. "Efficient Market Hypothesis on the blockchain: A social‐media‐based index for cryptocurrency efficiency," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 807-829, August.
    18. Kraaijeveld, Olivier & De Smedt, Johannes, 2020. "The predictive power of public Twitter sentiment for forecasting cryptocurrency prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    19. Leombroni, Matteo & Vedolin, Andrea & Venter, Gyuri & Whelan, Paul, 2021. "Central bank communication and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 860-880.
    20. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    21. Anamika & Madhumita Chakraborty & Sowmya Subramaniam, 2023. "Does Sentiment Impact Cryptocurrency?," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 202-218, April.
    22. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Corrigendum: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 320-322, August.
    23. Xiaoquan Jiang & Iván M. Rodríguez & Qianying Zhang, 2023. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and cryptocurrency prices: A common trend approach," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 181-198, March.
    24. Ahrens, Maximilian & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & McMahon, Michael & Neely, Christopher J. & Yang, Xiye, 2025. "Mind your language: Market responses to central bank speeches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    25. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    26. Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Safe haven, hedge and diversification for G7 stock markets: Gold versus bitcoin," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 212-224.
    27. Pyo, Sujin & Lee, Jaewook, 2020. "Do FOMC and macroeconomic announcements affect Bitcoin prices?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    28. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    29. Nguyen, Thach V.H. & Nguyen, Thai Vu Hong & Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Pham, Thu Thi Anh & Nguyen, Quan M.P., 2022. "Stablecoins versus traditional cryptocurrencies in response to interbank rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Latifi, Albina & Naboka-Krell, Viktoriia & Tillmann, Peter & Winker, Peter, 2024. "Fiscal policy in the Bundestag: Textual analysis and macroeconomic effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2024. "State-dependent local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    3. Benatti, Nicola & Groiss, Martin & Kelly, Petra & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "Environmental regulation and productivity growth in the euro area: Testing the porter hypothesis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Mario Alloza & Jesús Gonzalo & Carlos Sanz, 2025. "Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 380-394, June.
    5. Pascal Goemans, 2022. "Historical evidence for larger government spending multipliers in uncertain times than in slumps," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1164-1185, July.
    6. Bonsoo Koo & Seojeong Lee & Myung Hwan Seo & Masaya Takano, 2022. "What Impulse Response Do Instrumental Variables Identify?," Papers 2208.11828, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    7. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel Wilson, 2013. "Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 89-142.
    8. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-31.
    9. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi & Chiara Punzo, 2022. "Nonlinearities and expenditure multipliers in the Eurozone [Tales of fiscal adjustment]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 552-575.
    10. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotic, 2022. "Patent-Based News Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 51-66, March.
    11. Martin Geiger & Marios Zachariadis, 2019. "Assessing Expectations as a Monetary/Fiscal State-Dependent Phenomenon," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 01-2019, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    12. Ma, Chaoqun & Tian, Yonggang & Hsiao, Shisong & Deng, Liurui, 2022. "Monetary policy shocks and Bitcoin prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    14. Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Common Trends and Country Specific Heterogeneities in Long-Run World Energy Consumption," Working Papers No 01/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    15. Anh D. M. Nguyen & Luisanna Onnis & Raffaele Rossi, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Income and Consumption Tax Changes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 439-466, May.
    16. Mario Alloza, 2014. "Is Fiscal Policy More Effective in Uncertain Times or During Recessions?," Discussion Papers 1631, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Oct 2016.
    17. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2019. "The Fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 129-147.
    18. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in turbulent times: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1589-1625, June.
    19. Istrefi, Klodiana & Odendahl, Florens & Sestieri, Giulia, 2023. "Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: Revelations from speeches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:365. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laura Inés D Amato (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/redniar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.