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Long Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Bordalo
  • Nicola Gennaioli
  • Rafael La Porta
  • Matthew O'Brien
  • Andrei Shleifer

Abstract

In line with Keynes’ intuition, volatility in the stock market and in real economic activity are linked by expectations of long term profits. We show that analysts’ optimism about the long term earnings growth of S&P 500 firms is associated with a near term boom in major US financial markets, real investment, and other business cycle indicators. The same optimism however predicts disappointing earnings growth and a contraction in financial markets and real activity one to two years later. Overreaction of measured long term profit expectations emerges as a promising mechanism for reconciling Shiller’s excess volatility puzzle with the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Matthew O'Brien & Andrei Shleifer, 2023. "Long Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 31578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31578
    Note: ME
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Venky Venkateswaran, 2023. "Comment on "Long Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2023, volume 38, pages 363-368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rob Bauer & Katrin Gödker & Paul Smeets & Florian Zimmermann, 2024. "Mental Models in Financial Markets: How Do Experts Reason About the Pricing of Climate Risk?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 319, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    3. Olivier Blanchard, 2025. "Convergence? Thoughts About the Evolution of Mainstream Macroeconomics over the Last 40 Years," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Pierlauro Lopez & Sanjay R. Singh, 2025. "A Behavioral Foundation for the Investment Wedge," Working Paper Series 2025-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Bizzarri, Matteo & d’Arienzo, Daniele, 2024. "The social value of overreaction to information," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Rob Bauer & Katrin Gödker & Paul Smeets & Florian Zimmermann, 2024. "Mental Models in Financial Markets: How Do Experts Reason About the Pricing of Climate Change?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_569, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    7. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin L. Ilut & Hikaru Saijo, 2024. "Smooth Diagnostic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 32152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ye Li & Chen Wang, 2023. "Valuation Duration of the Stock Market," Papers 2310.07110, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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