IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/auu/hpaper/056.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Samurai Bond: Credit Supply And Economic Growth In Pre-War Japan

Author

Listed:
  • SERGI BASCO
  • John P. Tang

Abstract

While credit supply growth is associated with exacerbating financial crises, its impact on general economic activity and long run development are unclear. To identify a causal impact, we use bond payments to samurai in nineteenth century Japan as a quasi-natural experiment and exploit variation between regions. Our proxy for credit supply, samurai population shares, is positively associated with per capita levels of firm establishment and capital investment and average firm capital. Initial samurai population share affects output per capita in the short and long run only in regions with early access to railways, mainly through the tertiary sector. Our interpretation is that increased credit supply may have a positive and persistent impact on output if a region has productivity-enhancing investment opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • SERGI BASCO & John P. Tang, 2017. "The Samurai Bond: Credit Supply And Economic Growth In Pre-War Japan," CEH Discussion Papers 05, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:auu:hpaper:056
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/CEH/WP201705.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rajeev Dehejia & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2007. "Financial Development and Pathways of Growth: State Branching and Deposit Insurance Laws in the United States, 1900–1940," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(2), pages 239-272.
    2. Jith Jayaratne & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 639-670.
    3. Dwight H. Perkins & John P. Tang, 2015. "East Asian Industrial Pioneers: Japan, Korea and Taiwan," CEH Discussion Papers 041, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Tang, John, 2013. "Financial intermediation and late development in Meiji Japan, 1868 to 1912," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 111-135, August.
    6. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    7. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    8. Basco, Sergi, 2013. "Financial development and the product cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 295-313.
    9. Jeremy Atack & Michael R. Haines & Robert A. Margo, 2008. "Railroads and the Rise of the Factory: Evidence for the United States, 1850-70," NBER Working Papers 14410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    11. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226577838, July.
    12. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    13. Miyajima, Shigeki & Weber, Warren-E, 2001. "A Comparison of National Banks in Japan and the United States between 1872 and 1885," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(1), pages 31-48, February.
    14. Flath, David, 2014. "The Japanese Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780198702405, Decembrie.
    15. Yamamura, Kozo, 1967. "The Role of the Samurai in the Development of Modern Banking in Japan," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 198-220, June.
    16. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2009. "Does Local Financial Development Matter?," Springer Books, in: Damiano Bruno Silipo (ed.), The Banks and the Italian Economy, chapter 0, pages 31-66, Springer.
    17. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    18. Martin Eichenbaum & Jonathan A. Parker, 2017. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number eich-3, January.
    19. Rousseau, Peter L., 1999. "Finance, investment, and growth in Meiji-era Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 185-198, April.
    20. Masato Shizume & Masayoshi Tsurumi, 2016. "Modernizing the financial system in Japan during the 19th century: National Banks in Japan in the Context of Free Banking," Working Papers 1607, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    21. Summerhill, William R., 2005. "Big Social Savings in a Small Laggard Economy: Railroad-Led Growth in Brazil," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 72-102, March.
    22. Raghuram Rajan & Rodney Ramcharan, 2015. "The Anatomy of a Credit Crisis: The Boom and Bust in Farm Land Prices in the United States in the 1920s," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1439-1477, April.
    23. Kris James Mitchener & Mari Ohnuki, 2007. "Capital Market Integration In Japan," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    24. Kris James Mitchener & Mari Ohnuki, 2007. "Capital Market Integration in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 129-154, November.
    25. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226490229, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tang, John P. & Basco, Sergi, 2023. "Banks, credit supply, and the life cycle of firms: Evidence from late nineteenth century Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Diego Comin & Ramana Nanda, 2019. "Financial Development and Technology Diffusion," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(2), pages 395-419, June.
    3. Marco Pagano & ESRB Advisory Scientific Committee, 2014. "Is Europe Overbanked?," mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings 132, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Sergi Basco & John P. Tang, 2021. "Banks, Credit Supply, and the Life Cycle of Firms: Theory and Evidence from Late Nineteenth Century Japan," CEH Discussion Papers 02, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    5. Mitchener, Kris James & Wheelock, David C., 2013. "Does the structure of banking markets affect economic growth? Evidence from U.S. state banking markets," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 161-178.
    6. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Paul Wachtel, 2018. "Credit Deepening: Precursor to Growth or Crisis?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 34-43, March.
    8. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    9. Thorsten Beck, 2009. "The Econometrics of Finance and Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 25, pages 1180-1209, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.
    12. Marco Pagano, 2013. "Finance: Economic Lifeblood or Toxin?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Viral V Acharya & Thorsten Beck & Douglas D Evanoff & George G Kaufman & Richard Portes (ed.), The Social Value of the Financial Sector Too Big to Fail or Just Too Big?, chapter 8, pages 109-146, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. William James Adams & Ben R. Craig & James B. Thompson, 2006. "Does Small Business Administration guaranteed lending improve economic performance in lowincome areas?," Proceedings: Community Affairs Dept. Conferences, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Jul, pages 55-85.
    14. Benfratello, Luigi & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Sembenelli, Alessandro, 2008. "Banks and innovation: Microeconometric evidence on Italian firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 197-217, November.
    15. Emmanuel Carré & Guillaume L’œillet, 2018. "The Literature on the Finance–Growth Nexus in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis: A Review," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 161-180, March.
    16. Ben R. Craig & William E. Jackson & James B. Thomson, 2006. "Small-firm credit markets, SBA-guaranteed lending, and economic performance in low-income areas," Working Papers (Old Series) 0601, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    17. Dieckelmann, Daniel, 2020. "Cross-border lending and the international transmission of banking crises," Discussion Papers 2020/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    18. Francesca Gagliardi, 2009. "Financial development and the growth of cooperative firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 439-464, April.
    19. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," Economics Working Papers 17108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    20. Kerr, William R. & Nanda, Ramana, 2009. "Democratizing entry: Banking deregulations, financing constraints, and entrepreneurship," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 124-149, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit supply; finance-led growth; market access; railways;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:auu:hpaper:056. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/chanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.