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Nonlinearities and outliers: robust specification of STAR models

  • Escribano, A.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  • van Dijk, D.J.C.

Outliers and nonlinearity may easily be mistaken. This paper uses Monte Carlo methods to examine and compare the behavior of two competing specification procedures for Smooth Transition AutoRegressive [STAR] models under various different circumstances (linear and nonlinear data generating processes, with and without outlier contamination). The extensive simulation evidence demonstrates that the use of outlier-robust variants of the linearity tests which are involved leads to procedures with more desirable properties. An application to several real exchange rate series illustrates the potential usefulness of the robust specification procedures, especially in case one is not certain whether or not aberrant observations are present.

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File URL: http://repub.eur.nl/pub/1542/feweco19981126094918.pdf
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Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 9832.

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Date of creation: 10 Aug 1998
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1542
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Web page: http://www.eur.nl/ese

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
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  8. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
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  10. Grilli, Vittorio & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1991. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the real exchange rate : Evidence from the United States and Great Britain, 1885-1986," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 191-212, April.
  11. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  12. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February.
  14. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207, March.
  15. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
  16. Jenkins, Michael A, 1997. "Cities, Borders, Distances, Non-traded Goods and Purchasing Power Parity," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 203-13, May.
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