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Asymmetric In?ation Expectations, Downward Rigidity of Wages,and Asymmetric Business Cycles

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  • David R Baqaee

Abstract

This paper shows that household expectations of the inflation rate are more responsive to inflationary news than to disinflationary news. This asymmetry in inflation expectations can be a source of downward nominal wage rigidity, since workers expectations adjust more quickly to inflationary shocks than disinflationary shocks. I embed asymmetric beliefs into a general equilibrium model and show that, in such a model, monetary policy has asymmetric effects on employment, output, and wage inflation consistent with the data. I microfound asymmetric household expectations using ambiguity-aversion: households, who do not know the quality of their information, overweight inflationary news since it reduces their purchasing power, and underweight deflationary news since it increases their purchasing power. Although wages are downwardly rigid in this environment, monetary policy need not have a bias towards using inflation to grease the wheels of the labor market.
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  • David R Baqaee, 2014. "Asymmetric In?ation Expectations, Downward Rigidity of Wages,and Asymmetric Business Cycles," Working Paper 139681, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  • Handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:139681
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Johannes Wieland, 2016. "Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 21864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Masolo, Riccardo & Monti, Francesca, 2015. "Ambiguity, monetary policy and trend inflation," Bank of England working papers 565, Bank of England.
    3. Karolina Tura-Gawron & Maria Siranova & Karol Fisikowski, 2018. "ARE CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AN INTERNATIONAL PHENOMENON? Results of spatial panel regressions models," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 50, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.

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    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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