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Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation

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  • Derbyshire, James
  • Wright, George

Abstract

This paper shows that, in practice, the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘intuitive logics’, is overly focused on uncovering causes of one type, known as ‘efficient cause’. We outline and apply a broader consideration of causes, leading to a more sophisticated analysis of uncertainty. Our focus is on the incorporation of Aristotle’s nuanced analysis of causation. We incorporate the features of our augmented scenario development approach in a practical step-by-step methodology, and draw out several implications for expert knowledge elicitation.

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  • Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:1:p:254-266
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.004
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christian Stummer & Lars Lüpke & Markus Günther, 2021. "Beaming market simulation to the future by combining agent-based modeling with scenario analysis," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(9), pages 1469-1497, November.
    3. Rowe, Emily & Wright, George & Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important ‘weak signals’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 224-235.
    4. Venmathy Samanaseh & Zainura Zainon Noor & Siti Norasyiqin & Che Hafizan & Muhammad Amani Mazlan & Florianna Lendai Michael, 2023. "A review of scenario planning for emissions in environmental assessments," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 924-936, July.
    5. Bezjian, James & Stoyanova, Veselina & McKiernan, Peter & MacKay, R. Bradley, 2020. "Synthesizing scenario planning and industry recipes through an analysis of the Hollywood film industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    7. Burt, George & Nair, Anup Karath, 2020. "Rigidities of imagination in scenario planning: Strategic foresight through ‘Unlearning’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Tser-Yieth Chen & Chi-Jui Huang, 2019. "A Two-Tier Scenario Planning Model of Environmental Sustainability Policy in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, April.
    9. Gary Bowman & R. Bradley MacKay, 2020. "Scenario planning as strategic activity: A practice‐orientated approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    10. Chen, Kaihua & Ren, Zhipeng & Mu, Shijun & Sun, Tara Qian & Mu, Rongping, 2020. "Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
    12. Sirikhan, Kulacha, 2022. "Potentials and Challenges of The Connected Autonomous Shared Electric Vehicle (CASE) from Urban Geography Perspective in Southeast Asia Mega-Urban Regions," 31st European Regional ITS Conference, Gothenburg 2022: Reining in Digital Platforms? Challenging monopolies, promoting competition and developing regulatory regimes 265670, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    13. Wayland, Rebecca, 2019. "Three senses of paradigm in scenario methodology: A preliminary framework and systematic approach for using intuitive logics scenarios to change mental models and improve strategic decision-making in ," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 504-516.
    14. Hanna, Richard & Gross, Robert, 2021. "How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    15. Bouhalleb, Arafet & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2023. "The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    16. Giulia Parola, 2020. "Escape from parents? basement? Post COVID-19 scenarios for the future of youth employment in Italy," QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2020(111), pages 51-71.
    17. Anamaria Bukvic, 2019. "Visualizing the Possibility of Relocation: Coastal Relocation Leaf," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-12, June.
    18. Pieter Bloemen & Tim Reeder & Chris Zevenbergen & Jeroen Rijke & Ashley Kingsborough, 2018. "Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 1083-1108, October.
    19. Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 2020. "Thematic reflections on 18 expert commentaries," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    20. James Derbyshire, 2019. "Use of scenario planning as a theory‐driven evaluation tool," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), March.
    21. Ilkka Tuomi, 2019. "Chronotopes of foresight: Models of time‐space in probabilistic, possibilistic and constructivist futures," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
    22. Solomiia Fedushko & Tomáš Peráček & Yuriy Syerov & Olha Trach, 2021. "Development of Methods for the Strategic Management of Web Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, January.
    23. Megan M. Crawford & Eoin Plant‐O'Toole, 2023. "A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.

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