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Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures

Author

Listed:
  • Kishita, Yusuke
  • Mizuno, Yuji
  • Fukushige, Shinichi
  • Umeda, Yasushi

Abstract

A number of thematic scenarios have been developed for envisioning sustainable futures in order to support strategic decision-making for government and industry. However, methodologies for designing scenarios have generally been under-theorized. For a better understanding and communication among stakeholders involved, this paper aims to propose the concept of computer-aided scenario design whose key characteristic is to provide a graphical representation of scenarios. That is, the paper proposes a method for representing the logical structure of a scenario by drawing the idea of graph theory. Based on this representation method, the paper dynamically connects a scenario with its associated simulators for undertaking what-if analysis in a quantitative manner. In an illustrative case study, the proposed method is applied to an extant scenario for hybrid electric vehicle diffusion. The results show that the method clarified the logical structure of the scenario and the rationales for deriving the scenario's conclusions. It was also demonstrated that the method enabled to create scenario variants when the original assumptions were changed. The proposed method would facilitate the iterative process of scenario design, thereby encouraging scientific dialog between researchers and stakeholders.

Suggested Citation

  • Kishita, Yusuke & Mizuno, Yuji & Fukushige, Shinichi & Umeda, Yasushi, 2020. "Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:160:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520310337
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120207
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    1. Oughton, Edward J. & Comini, Niccolò & Foster, Vivien & Hall, Jim W., 2022. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Edward J Oughton & Niccol`o Comini & Vivien Foster & Jim W Hall, 2021. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Papers 2101.07820, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    3. Yusuke Kishita & Takuma Masuda & Hidenori Nakamura & Kazumasu Aoki, 2023. "Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.
    4. Yuriy Leonidovich Zhukovskiy & Daria Evgenievna Batueva & Alexandra Dmitrievna Buldysko & Bernard Gil & Valeriia Vladimirovna Starshaia, 2021. "Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-28, August.

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