Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120207
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to
for a different version of it.References listed on IDEAS
- Christopher Barrington-Leigh, 2016. "Sustainability and Well-Being: A Happy Synergy," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 59(3), pages 292-298, December.
- World Commission on Environment and Development,, 1987. "Our Common Future," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192820808.
- Nurisyal Muhamad & Sofiah Md Auzair & Amizawati Mohd Amir & Md Daud Ismail, 2016. "Measuring Sustainability Performance Measurement System," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(12), pages 182-199, JUNE.
- Kayser, Victoria & Shala, Erduana, 2020. "Scenario development using web mining for outlining technology futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
- United Nations, 2016. "The Sustainable Development Goals 2016," Working Papers id:11456, eSocialSciences.
- Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
- Wright, George & Bradfield, Ron & Cairns, George, 2013. "Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 631-642.
- Mander, Sarah. L. & Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin. L. & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3754-3763, October.
- Heinonen, Sirkka & Minkkinen, Matti & Karjalainen, Joni & Inayatullah, Sohail, 2017. "Testing transformative energy scenarios through causal layered analysis gaming," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 101-113.
- Kupers, Roland & Wilkinson, Angela, 2014. "The Essence of Scenarios," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9789089645944.
- Saritas, Ozcan & Nugroho, Yanuar, 2012. "Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 509-529.
- O'Brien, F. A., 2004. "Scenario planning--lessons for practice from teaching and learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 152(3), pages 709-722, February.
- Clark, William C. & van Kerkhoff, Lorrae & Lebel, Louis & Gallopin, Gilberto, 2016. "Crafting Usuable Knowledge for Sustainable Development," Working Paper Series 16-005, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 77-87.
- Rajagopal, 2016. "Sustainable Growth in Global Markets," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-52595-6, November.
- Kishita, Yusuke & McLellan, Benjamin C. & Giurco, Damien & Aoki, Kazumasu & Yoshizawa, Go & Handoh, Itsuki C., 2017. "Designing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 114-125.
- Oliver Paddison & Steve Gui-Diby, 2016. "Linking productivity to Sustainable Development," MPDD Policy Briefs PB40, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
- Ciwei Dong & Bin Shen & Pui-Sze Chow & Liu Yang & Chi To Ng, 2016. "Sustainability investment under cap-and-trade regulation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 240(2), pages 509-531, May.
- Mitsutaka Mutsumoto & Shinsuke Kondoh & Jun Fujimoto & Keijiro Masui, 2008. "A Modeling Framework for the Diffusion of Green Technologies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Mostafa Hashem Sherif & Tarek M Khalil (ed.), Management Of Technology Innovation And Value Creation Selected Papers from the 16th International Conference on Management of Technology, chapter 8, pages 121-136, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- MacKay, R. Bradley & Stoyanova, Veselina, 2017. "Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 88-100.
- Cristian - Liviu Vele & Diana Cezara Teader & Gratiela Boca & Cezar Toader, 2016. "The Strategic Approach Of Sustainable Development In Romania," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 193-206, July.
- Upham, Paul & Klapper, Rita & Carney, Sebastian, 2016. "Participatory energy scenario development as dramatic scripting: A structural narrative analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 47-56.
- Paul J.J. Welfens & Jens K. Perret & Tony Irawan & Evgeniya Yushkova, 2016. "Towards Global Sustainability," Springer Books, Springer, edition 1, number 978-3-319-18666-5, January.
- MacKay, Brad & Tambeau, Paul, 2013. "A structuration approach to scenario praxis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 673-686.
- Wright, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 813-825, October.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Yuriy Leonidovich Zhukovskiy & Daria Evgenievna Batueva & Alexandra Dmitrievna Buldysko & Bernard Gil & Valeriia Vladimirovna Starshaia, 2021. "Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-28, August.
- Edward J Oughton & Niccol`o Comini & Vivien Foster & Jim W Hall, 2021. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Papers 2101.07820, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
- Oughton, Edward J. & Comini, Niccolò & Foster, Vivien & Hall, Jim W., 2022. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
- Yusuke Kishita & Takuma Masuda & Hidenori Nakamura & Kazumasu Aoki, 2023. "Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Bezjian, James & Stoyanova, Veselina & McKiernan, Peter & MacKay, R. Bradley, 2020. "Synthesizing scenario planning and industry recipes through an analysis of the Hollywood film industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
- Yusuke Kishita & Takuma Masuda & Hidenori Nakamura & Kazumasu Aoki, 2023. "Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.
- Phillips, Peter M. & João, Elsa, 2017. "Land use planning and the ecosystem approach: An evaluation of case study planning frameworks against the Malawi Principles," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 460-480.
- MacKay, R. Bradley & Stoyanova, Veselina, 2017. "Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 88-100.
- James Derbyshire, 2019. "Use of scenario planning as a theory‐driven evaluation tool," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), March.
- Tiberius, Victor & Siglow, Caroline & Sendra-García, Javier, 2020. "Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 235-242.
- Venmathy Samanaseh & Zainura Zainon Noor & Siti Norasyiqin & Che Hafizan & Muhammad Amani Mazlan & Florianna Lendai Michael, 2023. "A review of scenario planning for emissions in environmental assessments," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 924-936, July.
- Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 77-87.
- Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
- Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
- Kishita, Yusuke & McLellan, Benjamin C. & Giurco, Damien & Aoki, Kazumasu & Yoshizawa, Go & Handoh, Itsuki C., 2017. "Designing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 114-125.
- Bradfield, Ron & Cairns, George & Wright, George, 2015. "Teaching scenario analysis—An action learning pedagogy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 44-52.
- Derbyshire, James & Wright, George, 2017. "Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 254-266.
- Gallopín, Gilberto, 2018. "Back to the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 318-324.
- Hope Osayantin Aifuwa, 2020. "Sustainability Reporting And Firm Performance In Developing Climes: A Review Of Literature," Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 9(1), pages 9-29.
- Ioan G. Pop & Sebastian Văduva & Mihai-Florin Talpoș, 2017. "Energetic Sustainability and the Environment: A Transdisciplinary, Economic–Ecological Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-12, May.
- Laura Laguna-Salvadó & Matthieu Lauras & Uche Okongwu & Tina Comes, 2019. "A multicriteria Master Planning DSS for a sustainable humanitarian supply chain," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 1303-1343, December.
- Mia Heide & Michael Z. Hauschild & Morten Ryberg, 2023. "Reflecting the importance of human needs fulfilment in absolute sustainability assessments: Development of a sharing principle," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(4), pages 1151-1164, August.
- Pereverza, Kateryna & Pasichnyi, Oleksii & Kordas, Olga, 2019. "Modular participatory backcasting: A unifying framework for strategic planning in the heating sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 123-134.
- Olga Laiza Kupika & Edson Gandiwa & Godwell Nhamo, 2019. "Green economy initiatives in the face of climate change: experiences from the Middle Zambezi Biosphere Reserve, Zimbabwe," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 2507-2533, October.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:160:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520310337. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.