IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v156y2020ics0040162520309124.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario development using web mining for outlining technology futures

Author

Listed:
  • Kayser, Victoria
  • Shala, Erduana

Abstract

Scenario development is an established foresight method. However, scenario processes require much time and the integration of a balanced set of initial information (reports, expert interviews, etc.) remains a challenge. One of the key tasks in scenario development is to capture the topic and identify its key influences. This has potential for improvements. In times of big data, far more options exist for the rapid exploration of a topic than manual literature analysis. Hence, this work examines web and text mining for its usability in data retrieval and aggregation to improve scenario development. In this article, a new scenario process is proposed and described using the topic quantified self as an example. As the results show, web and text mining present a very good starting point for discussing the scenario content. The rapid overview with the visualizations remarkably reduces the reading effort. Still, future projections need to be searched manually, but the results from the automatic analysis comprehensively guide this step.

Suggested Citation

  • Kayser, Victoria & Shala, Erduana, 2020. "Scenario development using web mining for outlining technology futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:156:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520309124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120086
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520309124
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120086?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zeng, Michael A. & Koller, Hans & Jahn, Reimo, 2019. "Open radar groups: The integration of online communities into open foresight processes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 204-217.
    2. O'Brien, Frances A. & Meadows, Maureen & Griffiths, Sam, 2017. "Serialisation and the use of Twitter: Keeping the conversation alive in public policy scenario projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 26-40.
    3. Hew, Aiwen & Perrons, Robert K. & Washington, Simon & Page, Lionel & Zheng, Zudou, 2018. "Thinking together about the future when you are not together: The effectiveness of using developed scenarios among geographically distributed groups," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 206-219.
    4. Peter W. Liesch & Lars Håkanson & Sara L. McGaughey & Stuart Middleton & Julia Cretchley, 2011. "The evolution of the international business field: a scientometric investigation of articles published in its premier journal," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 88(1), pages 17-42, July.
    5. O'Brien, Frances A. & Meadows, Maureen, 2013. "Scenario orientation and use to support strategy development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 643-656.
    6. Franco, L. Alberto & Meadows, Maureen & Armstrong, Steven J., 2013. "Exploring individual differences in scenario planning workshops: A cognitive style framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 723-734.
    7. Claudia Poser & Edeltraud Guenther & Marc Orlitzky, 2012. "Shades of green: using computer-aided qualitative data analysis to explore different aspects of corporate environmental performance," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 413-450, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ha, Sohee & Geum, Youngjung, 2022. "Identifying new innovative services using M&A data: An integrated approach of data-driven morphological analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    2. Christopher W. H. Davis & Antonie J. Jetter & Philippe J. Giabbanelli, 2022. "Automatically Generating Scenarios from a Text Corpus: A Case Study on Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Oughton, Edward J. & Comini, Niccolò & Foster, Vivien & Hall, Jim W., 2022. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    4. Kishita, Yusuke & Mizuno, Yuji & Fukushige, Shinichi & Umeda, Yasushi, 2020. "Scenario structuring methodology for computer-aided scenario design: An application to envisioning sustainable futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Yuri Calleo & Simone Di Zio & Francesco Pilla, 2023. "Facilitating spatial consensus in complex future scenarios through Real‐Time Spatial Delphi: A novel web‐based open platform," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    6. Yusuke Kishita & Takuma Masuda & Hidenori Nakamura & Kazumasu Aoki, 2023. "Computer‐aided scenario design using participatory backcasting: A case study of sustainable vision creation in a Japanese city," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    2. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
    3. Favato, Giampiero & Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2017. "Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 135-149.
    4. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
    5. Saikou Y. Diallo & Ross J. Gore & Jose J. Padilla & Christopher J. Lynch, 2015. "An overview of modeling and simulation using content analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 103(3), pages 977-1002, June.
    6. Gary Bowman & R. Bradley MacKay, 2020. "Scenario planning as strategic activity: A practice‐orientated approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    7. O'Brien, Frances A. & Meadows, Maureen & Griffiths, Sam, 2017. "Serialisation and the use of Twitter: Keeping the conversation alive in public policy scenario projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 26-40.
    8. Jacob Wood & Gohar Feroz Khan, 2015. "International trade negotiation analysis: network and semantic knowledge infrastructure," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(1), pages 537-556, October.
    9. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter, 2016. "Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 97-108.
    10. Monika Blišťanová & Peter Koščák & Michaela Tirpáková & Magdaléna Ondicová, 2023. "A Cross-Comparative Analysis of Transportation Safety Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, May.
    11. Kunc, Martin & O'Brien, Frances A., 2017. "Exploring the development of a methodology for scenario use: Combining scenario and resource mapping approaches," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 150-159.
    12. Sarkki, Simo & Pihlajamäki, Mia, 2019. "Baltic herring for food: Shades of grey in how backcasting recommendations work across exploratory scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 200-209.
    13. Siebelink, Remco & Halman, Johannes I.M. & Hofman, Erwin, 2016. "Scenario-Driven Roadmapping to cope with uncertainty: Its application in the construction industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 226-238.
    14. Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    15. Alain Verbeke & Angelito Calma, 2017. "Footnotes on JIBS 1970–2016," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 48(9), pages 1037-1044, December.
    16. Ram, Camelia, 2020. "Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Vivek Kumar Singh & Sumit Kumar Banshal & Khushboo Singhal & Ashraf Uddin, 2015. "Scientometric mapping of research on ‘Big Data’," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(2), pages 727-741, November.
    18. Bourmistrov, Anatoli & Åmo, Bjørn Willy, 2022. "Creativity, proactivity, and foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    19. Manuel Portugal Ferreira & Cláudia Frias Pinto & Fernando Ribeiro Serra, 2014. "The transaction costs theory in international business research: a bibliometric study over three decades," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 98(3), pages 1899-1922, March.
    20. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:156:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520309124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.