IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v138y2019icp204-217.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Open radar groups: The integration of online communities into open foresight processes

Author

Listed:
  • Zeng, Michael A.
  • Koller, Hans
  • Jahn, Reimo

Abstract

Monitoring a huge number of information sources and scanning the relevant environment are the basis for every foresight process. Since this endeavor is a complex task, it is necessary to find an efficient solution to do so. Based on foresight workshops with ‘Radar Groups’ – similar to focus groups –, Delphi studies, and netnographies of online communities, we develop a pragmatic foresight process. Since we integrate online communities as information sources in our foresight process, we call this ‘open foresight’. This open foresight process focuses upon the topic ‘Aviation 2040’ and is executed with aviation experts and an online community in two steps. This research setting enabled us to show (1) differences and similarities in future assessments and foresight capabilities between experts and online communities and (2) how to efficiently integrate online communities into foresight processes. Combining insights from experts and community members and, in doing so, moving towards ‘Open Radar Groups’ seems to be a beneficial way for conducting foresight and enriching companies' knowledge base.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeng, Michael A. & Koller, Hans & Jahn, Reimo, 2019. "Open radar groups: The integration of online communities into open foresight processes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 204-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:138:y:2019:i:c:p:204-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.08.022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162517317353
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.08.022?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boschetti, Fabio & Price, Jennifer & Walker, Iain, 2016. "Myths of the future and scenario archetypes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 76-85.
    2. Eric von Hippel, 1986. "Lead Users: A Source of Novel Product Concepts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(7), pages 791-805, July.
    3. Lars Janzik & Christina Raasch, 2011. "Online Communities In Mature Markets: Why Join, Why Innovate, Why Share?," International Journal of Innovation Management (ijim), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(04), pages 797-836.
    4. René Rohrbeck, 2014. "Trend Scanning, Scouting and Foresight Techniques," Springer Books, in: Oliver Gassmann & Fiona Schweitzer (ed.), Management of the Fuzzy Front End of Innovation, edition 127, pages 59-73, Springer.
    5. Armstrong, J. Scott & Overton, Terry S., 1977. "Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys," MPRA Paper 81694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    7. Zeng, Michael A., 2018. "Foresight by online communities – The case of renewable energies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 27-42.
    8. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Darkow, Inga-Lena, 2010. "Scenarios for the logistics services industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 46-59, September.
    9. Jovana Kovacevic & Sophie Hooge & Albert David, 2015. "Analyzing The Micro-Processes Of Collaborative Concept Generation At Ideation Stages: The Case Of Innovation-Oriented Web Community Discussions," Post-Print hal-01138847, HAL.
    10. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 183-195, January.
    11. Hyde, Abbey & Howlett, Etaoine & Brady, Dympna & Drennan, Jonathan, 2005. "The focus group method: Insights from focus group interviews on sexual health with adolescents," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 61(12), pages 2588-2599, December.
    12. Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2012. "Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 436-447.
    13. Fuller, Johann & Jawecki, Gregor & Muhlbacher, Hans, 2007. "Innovation creation by online basketball communities," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 60-71, January.
    14. John F. Preble, 1984. "The selection of delphi panels for strategic planning purposes," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 157-170, April.
    15. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    16. O'Reilly, Tim, 2007. "What Is Web 2.0: Design Patterns and Business Models for the Next Generation of Software," MPRA Paper 4578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    18. Tanya Menon & Jeffrey Pfeffer, 2003. "Valuing Internal vs. External Knowledge: Explaining the Preference for Outsiders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(4), pages 497-513, April.
    19. Yaniv, Ilan & Milyavsky, Maxim, 2007. "Using advice from multiple sources to revise and improve judgments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 104-120, May.
    20. Weigand, Kirk & Flanagan, Thomas & Dye, Kevin & Jones, Peter, 2014. "Collaborative foresight: Complementing long-horizon strategic planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 134-152.
    21. Warth, Johannes & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Darkow, Inga-Lena, 2013. "A dissent-based approach for multi-stakeholder scenario development — The future of electric drive vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 566-583.
    22. Heger, Tobias & Rohrbeck, René, 2012. "Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 819-831.
    23. Hung, Chih-Young & Lee, Wen-Yee & Wang, Ding-Shan, 2013. "Strategic foresight using a modified Delphi with end-user participation: A case study of the iPad's impact on Taiwan's PC ecosystem," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-497.
    24. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
    25. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gordon, Adam Vigdor & Ramic, Mirza & Rohrbeck, René & Spaniol, Matthew J., 2020. "50 Years of corporate and organizational foresight: Looking back and going forward," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Kayser, Victoria & Shala, Erduana, 2020. "Scenario development using web mining for outlining technology futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Marinković, Milan & Al-Tabbaa, Omar & Khan, Zaheer & Wu, Jie, 2022. "Corporate foresight: A systematic literature review and future research trajectories," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 289-311.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    2. Zeng, Michael A., 2018. "Foresight by online communities – The case of renewable energies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 27-42.
    3. Kopyto, Matthias & Lechler, Sabrina & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hartmann, Evi, 2020. "Potentials of blockchain technology in supply chain management: Long-term judgments of an international expert panel," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Keller, Jonas & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "The influence of information and communication technology (ICT) on future foresight processes — Results from a Delphi survey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 81-92.
    5. Roßmann, Bernhard & Canzaniello, Angelo & von der Gracht, Heiko & Hartmann, Evi, 2018. "The future and social impact of Big Data Analytics in Supply Chain Management: Results from a Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 135-149.
    6. von Briel, Frederik, 2018. "The future of omnichannel retail: A four-stage Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 217-229.
    7. Frevel, Nicolas & Beiderbeck, Daniel & Schmidt, Sascha L., 2022. "The impact of technology on sports – A prospective study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    8. Fritschy, Carolin & Spinler, Stefan, 2019. "The impact of autonomous trucks on business models in the automotive and logistics industry–a Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Förster, Bernadette, 2015. "Technology foresight for sustainable production in the German automotive supplier industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 237-248.
    10. Spickermann, Alexander & Zimmermann, Martin & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Surface- and deep-level diversity in panel selection — Exploring diversity effects on response behaviour in foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 105-120.
    11. Peppel, Marcel & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2022. "How will last-mile delivery be shaped in 2040? A Delphi-based scenario study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    12. Engelke, Henning & Mauksch, Stefanie & Darkow, Inga-Lena & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2015. "Opportunities for social enterprise in Germany — Evidence from an expert survey," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 635-646.
    13. Merfeld, Katrin & Wilhelms, Mark-Philipp & Henkel, Sven & Kreutzer, Karin, 2019. "Carsharing with shared autonomous vehicles: Uncovering drivers, barriers and future developments – A four-stage Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 66-81.
    14. Winkler, Jens & Moser, Roger, 2016. "Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 63-76.
    15. Tiberius, Victor & Gojowy, Robin & Dabić, Marina, 2022. "Forecasting the future of robo advisory: A three-stage Delphi study on economic, technological, and societal implications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    16. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.
    17. Prommer, Lisa & Tiberius, Victor & Kraus, Sascha, 2020. "Exploring the future of startup leadership development," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    18. Bokrantz, Jon & Skoogh, Anders & Berlin, Cecilia & Stahre, Johan, 2017. "Maintenance in digitalised manufacturing: Delphi-based scenarios for 2030," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 154-169.
    19. Di Zio, Simone & Bolzan, Mario & Marozzi, Marco, 2021. "Classification of Delphi outputs through robust ranking and fuzzy clustering for Delphi-based scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    20. Elizabeth Gibson & Tugrul Daim & Edwin Garces & Marina Dabic, 2018. "Technology Foresight: A Bibliometric Analysis to Identify Leading and Emerging Methods," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 6-24.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:138:y:2019:i:c:p:204-217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.